Common Sense Sports

2010-04-03T11:57:00.001-07:00

New uses

2010-04-03T11:50:00.000-07:00

Because I'm of limited savvy in blogging I'm using this site as a place to post images so I can transfer them for posts over at barking carnival.

New schemes and new places

2010-01-25T16:55:00.000-08:00

This may be my last column as the assistant to the VP of Common Sense on this page. From now on I will be writing Daily columns on events and themes in the World of Texas Sports on barkingcarnival.com by all means check it out. You will find me there under the assumed name "Nickel Rover" as well as some colorful and insightful commentary about Texas sports from other writers. You can also find blogs for other teams there including the tortillaretort which I have referenced here recently.

As my last post here I want to go back into that topic which has had so much to do with Texas offensive production in the last few years. The running game.

Texas has been basing their offense in the zone running game since part-way through 2003. With Vince Young it was a devastating because Vince provided the ultimate backside threat for teams. If you tried to stop the blocked run you were leaving yourself vulnerable to Vince Young taking off and getting loose in your secondary, a terrible possibility.

So the inside-zone was the base play for achieving those scenarios. Then Colt McCoy replaced Vince Young and the offensive transformation began. The inside-zone was far less useful with Colt because he wasn’t nearly as dangerous keeping the ball and the coaches didn’t want him to have to keep it because it put him at risk and potentially distracted from his talents in the passing game.

So OC Davis made the switch to the outside zone as the primary play because it allowed them to keep the same blocking system and could be run out of the 3 WR, 1 TE formations, or the 4 WR formations. Then things broke down. First Jamaal Charles left school early and the running game was revealed as a collection of solid blocking efforts that were just enough to spring the fastest player on the field loose but not a lesser player.

They never switched out of basing in the zone-running game but Greg Davis tried to add other stuff to give the Longhorns some options when teams like OU would just shut down the running game. However, the personnel wasn’t really suited for it and the execution was frequently terrible except against tired 2nd half defenses.

So, we come to 2010. Texas has a new quarterback, 3 new starters on the OL, sophomore running back and lots of young receivers. Greg Davis has a pretty consistent passing game scheme that has proven to be excellent over the last several years. His problem has been finding a running game system that holds up and can be adapted to the strengths and weaknesses of the team in a given year.

Well, last year I argued that they should use the inside zone. Early this offseason I was expecting them to stay with the outside zone and practice it harder hoping that the replacement of Chris Hall with David Snow would result in success. However, upon examination of the Greg Davis passing game scheme it becomes apparent that it’s most effective and coherent part of the offense. Yet it takes a lot of practice time to build the necessary timing and recognition with the quarterbacks and receivers.

The zone running game is similarly stringent upon having tons of practice repetitions. You can’t have the zone as a part of your running game at the College level and feature other running plays and a passing game like the one Davis uses. Something will suffer, and Davis has chosen with his personnel (and I can only assume practice time) for that to be the running game.

So, I have a solution. I think Texas should abandon the zone-running game that they helped launch into prominence with Vince Young and start over. Texas is producing great, big pass-blocking lineman, spread quarterbacks and spread receivers. So they should feature a running game that can be played in spread formations and not rely on the quarterback running. With that in mind, I present the following base play, it’s a trap play with origins in the Wing T formations of yesteryear (before Darrel Royal even) that was originally run with a fullback. On a texas fan thread I encountered a coach saying that Texas should run the “run-and-shoot” offense, which is another old offense you can find remnants of in most modern schemes. I’m not necessarily entirely sold on this suggestion but I do think the trap play should be incorporated as a mainstay in the Texas offense because it can be run from the shotgun and it fits the current personnel well.

I call it, the Von Trap Family series:

Trap plays work to create down-blocking angles in the middle of the line typically by pulling the left guard and allowing the defensive end on the other side of the line to come free. The guard can then broadside that end away from the play. Allow me to demonstrate.

First we have the power-trap play.

What’s good about the trap-plays is that it creates favorable angles for the offensive lineman to attack defenders. The Left tackle can just block the end across from him further in the direction that end would typically be racing towards. The Left guard will pull to the right where the left end has been left unblocked. He will then nail the end and drive him away from the action.

The Center attacks the defensive tackle to his left and pushes him away from the path of the running back. The tight end, having left the end across from him alone will advance to the 2nd level aiming for the weakside linebacker but he’ll typically block whoever gets in the way. The right guard will chip the defensive tackle towards the Right tackle and advance to the middle linebacker.

The running back should have a big hole between the Center and right guard to advance through and then he can read the action from there. The safeties are up to him.

All these plays are drawn against the 4-3 under front but can be adapted to face other fronts. In these we can see that the center must make a downblock on the nose tackle. With Hall this was still doable because the angle was good, with David Snow all the more so.

Now, if the play is successful in gashing the defense up the middle for yards it sets up a series of pass plays that are already within the Texas arsenal:

If they move in a linebacker instead of covering the slot receiver they are vulnerable to the play-action bubble screen. Or just the bubble screen:

If you throw this to Marquise Goodwin in that scenario good things can happen as we saw against Alabama.

Similarly if they drop the free safety into the box to help against the run they leave themselves vulnerable to deep play action passes.

Now the Free safety has been drawn in too close and the left corner has no help as the receiver runs a deep post. Garret Gilbert throws it over their heads…touchdown. Or maybe the quarterback just finds someone else like the tight end running vertical or the X receiver on the right, or whatever other routes Texas runs on the play. I won’t pretend I put much thought into the routes other than the post that the safety has left open, but the tight end running vertical keeps the other safety from stopping the deep post without helping against the tight end.

The Von-Trap can also be run with 4 wide receivers provided that the defense moves a linebacker out to line up on the receiver. If he doesn’t than the offense should be throwing anyways.

The blocking angles aren’t as great here though so it’s useful to have another play for the 4-WR offense to employ. I recommend one that Texas might more freely use with a better center in the middle of the field. The normal shotgun play, the running back draw.

The tackles both start moving laterally as though they were in pass protection. This allows the defensive ends to run upfield and take themselves out of the play. The left guard gets some help from the Center in moving the tackle to the left and then the Center advances against the linebacker. The right guard follows the lead of the tackles and just seals off the other tackle. The quarterback has to sell the play like he’s looking to pass before handing off to the running back who can probably shoot up the middle between the center’s block and the right guards’. The lineman can also line up in pass protection stances to help sell the pass.

I like this trap play because it features down-blocking (which is easier for big guys like Huey, Hix, or some of the other newly acquired recruits) and it’s easy to work out ways to run it without in the shotgun formations Texas uses to the extent that I was able to invent it myself just adapting the play from the run-and-shoot scheme. However, there are a number of other running schemes that can, and should be implemented with the offense in lieu of a zone-running game that Texas has shown little ability to execute.

Looking ahead to 2010: Offense

2010-01-20T19:20:00.001-08:00

The biggest question mark heading into the 2010 Longhorn football campaign would have regarded the growth and play of likely starter Garrett Gilbert. Then he was thrust into the National championship game and as Nathan Gaskey quickly pointed out, “he’ll never be under more pressure than that for the rest of his college career.”

Additionally, Garrett played pretty well and delivered a few strikes I’m not sure Colt was ever capable of. That said, I don’t expect Gilbert to be better than Colt next year but he has some arm strength and downfield accuracy that Colt didn’t, which was unsurprising because I have seen them throw back to back in open practices.

The Austin American Statesman has a muddled, uninformed piece up about question marks heading into next season but here I can give you a better presentation of what the team is looking for in spring practices and for the fall squad. Today the focus will be on offense, we’ll start with that ghost that has haunted Texas since Vince’s departure with nothing more than a temporary answer when Charles ascended to brilliance:

The Running game:

This is a focus every off season and many of the other team questions will come into play here. From a strategic level, with a first year starter at quarterback and the team’s leading receiver graduating coupled with a poor running game the last few seasons, having an effective running game in 2010 will be a priority.

Texas could not make teams pay for pinching off the short-pass offense employed with Colt with the lowlight being Nebraska’s Defense dominating both the short passing game and the running game by using 6 defensive backs and stuffing the Longhorn running plays with 1 linebacker and 4 defensive lineman.

The problems with the running game have been run over by me, the coaching staff and tons of commentators over and over again. Essentially I think it boils down to these:

1). Bad implementation of scheme: Texas installed the Outside zone-stretch as the base offensive play ala the Indianapolis Colts. They don’t block it well and don’t run it well. The running backs don’t read the creases well and don’t allow the blocks to set up or else the blocks fail in ways that zone-blocking should never fail. For instance, you should never have a negative play on a zone run, the whole scheme is supposed to prevent that very occurrence.

The outside zone, while an excellent base play that can be run with 3 wide receivers (like Texas likes to employ) demands a lot of repetitions to be run properly so the above mentioned mistakes don’t happen.

The West-Coast passing game that Texas used with Colt McCoy also demanded a lot of repetitions to be run properly because the receiver routes are timing based. Colt would read the defense and then make a timed throw into the soft parts of the coverage. It was run excellently, I don’t know if I’ve seen a better executed short-passing game in college football. However, such a scheme necessarily limits the amount of time that can be spent on the running game, and Texas chose the very running scheme that demands the most practice time. I can’t say for sure that Texas didn’t have time to run the zone-blocking AND West Coast passing attack in practice but I do know that the execution of the running game was poor.

2). Personnel: Chris Hall was moved to Center, I can only assume, for his speed in open space and experience making line calls. However, he was hopelessly weak at the point of attack and was frequently driven into the backfield. The rest of the line wasn’t necessarily suited for zone blocking and seemed chosen for experience and skill in pass protection.

Also extremely important is the Tight End position. The outside zone is heavily dependent on the tight end making a key block on the defensive end. If that block fails the play, designed to get outside quickly, is going to go badly quickly because that’s one of the first blocks the runner reads.

The Tight End is basically essential for an offense like Texas’ to have balance in the running game and passing game because it allows for base running and passing plays to be run from the same formations.

Next year Texas will have a very different line because 3 starters are graduating. The remaining 2, Michael Huey and Kyle Hix, are not particularly suited for zone blocking which best utilizes quick moving lineman who can make lateral movements.

Texas Tech blogger dedfischer once wrote on tortillaretort.com, “if your center isn’t a weakness, it’s a strength.” David Snow seems a lock to take on the job of starting center (since he did when Chris Hall went down in the National Title) and he qualifies for that condition. Thus, the addition of a tight end from one of a million scholarship possibilities, the inclusion of Snow on the line, and a possible departure from relying as much on the short passing game improve Texas chances at running the outside zone stretch as their base play.

While we’re here lets move on to

The Offensive Line:

Again, from the Right guard to the slot receiver everyone on the team is gone. That’s center Chris Hall (3 year starter), Left Guard Charlie Tanner (3 year starter) and the all important Left Tackle Adam Ulatoski (3 years at LT one at RT all starting).

Truly the only one I think Texas is likely to miss immediately is Ulatoski. He wasn’t an elite talent for the position but he was highly skilled in the fundamentals and most of McCoy’s problems from blind side rushers were either missed calls that led to unblocked rushers or someone like the Aggy defensive end Von Miller who disgraced just about everyone last season. His return next season is about as exciting as our chances at economic recovery, I dread the Aggy game next season.

However the future is bright because Texas has a few players with Left Tackle talent. There is mulleted back-up Luke Poehlman who is currently undersized and about whom I have no real opinion other than that I’m not sure Gilbert wants to see a mullet coming from the back of the helmet responsible for covering his blindside. Then we have the inexperienced talents Garret Porter and Mason Walters.

Porter I’ve seen play basketball in person and he has the mobility, long arms and lack of body fat you like to see from a Left Tackle. He redshirted this season however. Mason Walters played Center in high school and would have been playing guard as a sub this season but was injured. Given Texas’ recruitment of the no. 1 Center prospect in Texas (from my very own Cedar Park High School) and Snow’s presence I’m expecting Walters to see time at Left Tackle eventually because that’s where you would expect an offense to place its most valuable talent.

Starting Right Tackle Hix would be a terrible Left Tackle because he doesn’t move well laterally against speed rushers and his backup, Britt Mitchell, couldn’t beat out Mullet man to be back-up left tackle for Ulatoski so I’m forced to assume he’s rubbish in pass protection as well.

Center will be David Snow, who looked great as a freshman and mixed as a sophomore with his low being the Red River Shootout when OU’s McCoy nearly broke him down. At any rate, he’ll be an improvement over Chris Hall whatever Davis chooses to do.

Replacing Charlie Tanner is an undertaking that would seem to have been simple but failed to happen for 3 seasons. He was a very solid player but not the kind of elite talent Texas can field with their resource base. My bet is on 5 star Senior Tray Allen taking over there. Allen was considered one of the best lineman of his recruiting class and a potential Left Tackle extraordinaire. He never caught on but showed flashes of brilliance in practices, scrimmages and garbage time when moved to guard. A line with Walters, Allen, Snow, Huey and then Hix would be an athletic upgrade over last year’s group but will require seasoning to reach the same levels of pass protection. However, that is an acceptable timeline because Gilbert and the skill players are all young as well.

In conclusion, pass protection may be dicey on the edge as Walters or whoever has to learn the ropes but against the kind of interior pass rush that really bothered Texas last year there should actually be improvement with Hall being replaced by Snow.

With the foundation in place for Gilbert’s offense we can move on to:

The Skill Players:

Brandon Collins was a likely candidate to be the no. 2 receiver this season behind Shipley in replacement of Cosby. Then he was ruled academically ineligible, then he was arrested for armed robbery and that was it. Dan Buckner was statistically the no. 2 receiver in the offense this season and then he was arrested in college station and transferred. Well then.

Marquise Goodwin surprised a lot beginning the season as a track player who might earn a spot on the team and finishing as the leading receiver in the OU game and 2nd receiver in the National Championship. His value just in running the WR screen makes him a starter in my mind. He went for 70 yards against Alabama just with 3 screen pass receptions.

Malcolm Williams has been and will be until potentially fall camp, the most talented receiver on the squad. He’s a downfield threat because of his size and speed and when he catches the short routes he can accelerate past guys in a hurry. His blocking on screens and running plays is also invaluable. However, he drops the ball. He’s like the Terrel Owens of the Longhorns without the bad locker room stuff or frequent pass opportunities.

After those two I’m less certain about the others. Kirkendoll was great in games that didn’t pit him against Texas-level talent and John Chiles is just learning the position but hasn’t shown the work ethic and consistency. I think the staff decided a while ago that Chiles was one of the more explosive talents and have continued to employ him under that assumption but he hasn’t shown it on the field.
There are other guys that haven’t seen the field like DeSean Hales, a shifty former running back who got good reports from bowl practices, and Greg Timmons who is a 6-3 guy with good fundamentals. Incoming however are Mike Davis and Chris Jones, 2 highly valued recruits, and Darius White the number one receiver in the national recruiting class. Nothing is set in stone here really.

At running back there is a huge collection of talent. Chris Whaley was last year’s prize RB recruit but unless he’s a game-breaking talent I think Tre Newton will hold down the job of starting running back because he knows how to find the crease in the zone running game, he is an excellent pass-blocker, and he can receive coming out of the backfield.

DJ Monroe would be a great third down back if he had those latter 2 skills. Nevertheless his speed on sweeps makes him a valuable weapon to be used like Percy Harvin in the offense next year.

The Best football programs in the country.

2010-01-13T22:54:00.000-08:00

There have been some tremendous shake-ups in the world of college football over the last month which have forced me to apply my reasoning power as the assistant to the VP of Common Sense.
First Urban Meyer retired…then he came back. Then there was speculation that Will Muschamp would leave Texas for X job. Pete Carrol abandoned USC like an unwanted growing puppy and that snake Lane Kiffin slithered in. Now there is the question of who takes the Tennessee job, whether Muschamp stays at UT or goes to Tennessee and it all amounts to one big question for me:

Which NCAA football program is in the best shape right now? Which power programs are in the best shape to make attempts on the ultimate goal in college football? Winning money, er, I mean championships. So I’m doing this the only way I know how…a top 15 list. Top 15 programs in terms of position to win heading into the new decade.

Honorable Mentions:
West Virginia, always have a chance in the Big East.
Nebraska: Coming back but have poor recruiting base and compete with OU and Texas every year.
Oregon St: also on the up and up but competing with big time powers.
California: Let’s be real Chad, if they were going to do anything it would have happened already.
Auburn: As long as they have OC Gus Malzahn I think they’ll be competitive. I still think Chizik is a poor coach overall though.

15). Boise State.

They narrowly edge out TCU for “team that can beat anyone in one game but will never have a chance to win the championship.” That’s probably not accurate, if there hadn’t been 2 undefeated superpowers this season one of Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise St. would have been in. Ultimately it’s a long shot though. So despite the wonderful performance of Boise State in recent years and strong state of the program, they are on the outside looking in.

14). Virgina Tech:

Because of Frank Beamer’s coaching of special teams, defense, and option football Virgina Tech consistenly affords themselves the chance to be good every year and compete in the BCS picture. Recruiting has been solid and development even better. Additionally, they are a powerhouse for where they are.

13). Michigan

They look to be in terrible shape and Rich Rodriguez is on the hot seat. Also, the main city of Michigan, Detroit, is a virtual ghost town that resembles Manhattan in “Escape from New York” more and more each day. So why are they so high? For one, Michigan is a traditional powerhouse with a great resource base. Recruiting is down a ways (again, dealing with a terrible state) but I have a lot of faith in the following:
a). Rich Rodriguez and his staff: He has one of the best strength and conditioning coaches in the country. They used to transform guys at West Virgina. Additionally, they are converting the school from having big, clunky pro-style offenses to having fast zone-option teams. Eventually I think they get it together.
b). The potential of Michigan in the Big 10. I think the Big 10 has become wildly underrated, but it’s still an easier place to thrive than the SEC I must admit.
c). Even if Rodriguez is gone the school still has some money and resources to pluck someone. I think it’s likely they will reach the top 10 again. It would help if the auto industry could get their act together.

12). Notre Dame

Another classic Northern power weakened by poor coaching choices and a questionable recruiting base. It’s simply really hard to pluck guys from SEC country and Texas has a lot to offer but you are picking behind Texas, OU, LSU and other Big 12 schools for a lot of these kids. Nevertheless, when you have resources like Michigan or Notre Dame you can still compete for recruits and coaches. I think the hiring of Brian Kelly is a good one for providing Notre Dame with a coach who can win with normal college players.

Charlie Weiss ran an NFL offense and had terrible defensive squads. He required the best lineman, quarterbacks and receivers (and he got some) to execute the offense effectively enough to dominate at the college level. Brian Kelly runs a spread offense, knows the Ohio river valley recruiting territory, the Texas grounds, and has a much simpler and better understanding of how to run scheme at the college level.

11). Oregon

Oregon has that awesome deal with Nike that provides them with new uniforms all the time, national attention, and money. Coach Chip Kelly is another spread guru who has constructed some tremendous offenses at Oregon as OC and now Head Coach.

The recruiting base is pretty solid with California a modern untapped Gold mine since USC can’t take all the talent and there aren’t many other huge powers in the region to compete with given UCLA’s decline and California’s impotence. Take a look at the players Oregon has put in the NFL the past few years and you’ll get a sense of the talent level of their squads. This season saw Oregon in the Rose Bowl and I don’t think that will be a short-lived phenomenon.

10). Miami

They haven’t done a ton recently save for some early season success but they are getting back to big time Florida recruiting and have really loaded up on recent recruiting classes. Head Coach Randy Shannon is everything that the old U wasn’t. Talent mixed in with a blue collar attitude, discipline and respect. The old U were undisciplined, disrespectful, and supremely talented and competitive, perhaps nowhere more than their own practices.

Anyways, in the modern College world, a Florida school that can do things right is a top 10 program.

9). Georgia

And here comes the SEC. Georgia is one of the more effective recruiting schools in the country, living off of the fat of the land down in the south. With all that talent they can’t help but knock over some people from time to time, and the defensive coaching has been very good.

However, I have about as much respect for Mark Richt as a offensive mind as I do Greg Davis at Texas. Provided with great talent they can out execute the lesser squads but get in worlds of trouble against defenses that can match up on their athletes or expose weak points. Anyways, they reach the top 10 despite Mark Richt and being in the SEC because they are talented enough year in and out to have a shot at the title. They would do well to get off Florida’s bad list though.

8). Penn State

I’m guessing Joe Paterno coaches at Penn State until he is dead since he’s been there something like 50 years. The state of Penn st. football has been about the same for decades. Paterno’s tenure there has no equivalent unless you can imagine if Darrel K. Royal still coached at Texas.

Given that fact, Penn State is often slow to adjust to modern schemes and trends but usually on the cusp. They build fantastic linebackers and they’ve been close to national championships in recent years. They’re adoption of the spread offense paired with their traditional Cover-3 style defense dominated by fierce linebackers earns them a spot on in the top 10 but their presence in the Big 10 (again an easier conference to navigate given the right situation) pushes them over Miami and Georgia.

7). Oklahoma

Oklahoma was probably at or near the top of this list at the beginning of the decade. Stoops defenses were terrorizing the Big 12, recruiting was fantastic and Texas looked like they didn’t know how to defend against the body shots, much less throw a counterpunch.

Then Big Game Bob started losing big games. Coaches worked out how to attack their aggressive defense and the offenses were usually short of being the total package. Quarterback play has been poor in years not featuring Nate Heupel and Sam Bradford (Jason White’s Heisman was a bad joke) and they have lost their stranglehold on Dallas recruiting which has vaulted Texas above them.
Worst of all, Mack Brown has won 4 of 5 games in the Cotton Bowl and recent Big 12 success has come through the back door despite losses to Texas rather than as a result of Crimson dominance. All that said, OU is still pulling in great players. Stoops defenses have never shocked people like in 2000 but have still been very good, and their no-huddle offense from last year set the trend nationally. If not for Texas…

6). LSU

They have a recent championship and tons of great recruiting from Louisiana (where they are often uncontested) and the Houston and East Texas area. Les Miles is something less than a genius and his division will often be more than he can overcome but the program has proven they can backdoor their way into national championships with superior talent and the recognition of being an SEC squad.
On offense they are trying to run some spread schemes but have faltered due to Ryan Perriloux turning out to be some kind of menace and no emergence as of yet from Russel Shephard.
On defense they’ve been somewhat underachieving given their talent level and the level of difficulty they face in bad SEC offenses. They are a great coach short from being a top 5 program.

5). The Ohio State University

Jim Tressel can’t quite give up his uber-conservative play-calling which has hamstrung the potential of his offenses against talented defenses that know what’s coming. However his recruiting and use of Terrelle Pryor and Troy Smith before demonstrate the beginning of an understanding of how to break away from his predictable power-run based offense towards a more versatile and unstoppable unit.

On defense they have virtually no peer. They produce NFL defenders every season and show inventiveness on defense you wouldn’t expect from watching the play-calling on offense. Sweater-vest has also shocked Texas in all of their engagements demonstrating in each occasion how Texas is best defended while also showing up with offensive game plans that took Texas by surprise.

In national championships they have looked weak and unimaginative on offense and have come up short time and time again. Still, Tressel defense, plus Ohio recruiting, plus Pryor puts them in great shape for the new decade.

4). Florida

Only no. 4 you say? Ridiculous, they are pulling in a ridiculous recruiting class, have won 2 titles in 4 years and retain Urban Meyer and his crazy spread option. Florida has a long term recruiting base, staff vision for implementing the state’s talent. Urban Meyer has shown talent before for tweaking his offense to suit his quarterbacks and a knack for burning defenses in big games. The overall emphasis on speed at Florida has proven the stupid “you can’t run that spread stuff against SEC speed” talk to be idiotic. Not only did he do so immediately, with a non-running quarterback, but he then built the fastest team in the conference.

But, it’s unclear if Meyer can hang around with his health issues. Is he really back? Can he handle the responsibilities and work habits that got Florida this far? He just lost some more valuable staff pieces, including their defensive coordinator who was behind the units that really won those 2 championships for the Gators, this after losing the offensive coordinator the following year. As we saw with Carrol’s USC, the loss of coordinators and staff adds up eventually. It’s hard to rebuild the chemistry and philosophy with revolving doors in important spots. Definitely a lot of work for a coach with health problems, not to mention his stiff competition week to week and the rise of another program you know is coming soon.

3). USC

What? Let me start with this. Lane Kiffin is a snake. The way he sold himself and what he was about to Tennessee reeked of arrogance, lack of appreciation for anything not-USC, and overall entitlement from the Coach’s son. I don’t think he’s a phenomenal schemer (in the football sense that is), overall teacher, or person.

But he’s a great mastermind. He surrounded himself with a great staff at Tennessee hiring Ed Orgeron (recruiting wizard, d-line mastermind and former head coach) and papa Monte Kiffin (tampa-2 defensive mastermind). Actually, let me review that part in parenthesis, this man invented the modern tampa-2 defense. This is the defense that Tony Dungy has used at Tampa Bay (obviously), Indianapolis and was copied by coordinators Lovie Smith (Bears defense, you heard much about it?) and Mike Tomlin at Minnesota and later Pittsburgh. It’s one of the most dominant defensive schemes in the NFL today. Monte Kiffin made it and now he’s making his son look good.

Now the word on the street is that Lane has added former USC great Norm Chow to the fold as offensive coordinator. Chow is another big time pro-style xs and os guy from the West Coast school of thought (short, timed passes. The stuff Greg Davis runs at Texas).

Essentially, little Kiffin has assembled an NFL coaching staff at a location where a team can actually run pro-style schemes and get away with it. California, as I’ve mentioned, has an enormous recruiting base and little competition for USC from other major programs. I don’t think another program will have the pedigree and genius of Kiffin’s staff here and they all seem intent on re-living the glory days of the early Pete Carrol era.

That’s one problem here, I’m not sure if all this “remember the good old days” stuff will fly trying to recreate something that has already past. Another problem is that Carrol probably left for a reason. USC could be facing major NCAA sanctions. Also, you would hope that Lane would be on the receiving end of some justice.

2). Alabama

Alabama is back. Nick Saban is exercising his Napoleon syndrome in a conference where he won’t likely lack for competitors to challenge him and bring out his obsessive work demons. The state of Alabama is pretty recruit rich and there is enough going on there now to draw other southern and Texas recruits to Saban’s fold.

The coaching there is good on both sides of the ball. The defense is sophisticated, tricky and well executed while the offense is simple and brutal. They’ll always be tough to beat and as they continue to draw Saban recruits it won’t get easier. Very little is going bad here. It’s easier to maintain a strong running game system and good defense than a West Coast offense year in and year out. Also, despite his slithering past I think Saban is going to be here for some time. So why is Alabama only number two?

Well first of all, the difference between Saban and Jim Tressel is not great. If you look at Saban’s record in some big games you won’t see the fiery destroyer of worlds the media hype would have you believe. His defense is great, like Tressel’s, but not necessarily as versatile as the numbers suggest. Texas almost torched them with a freshman quarterback thrown into the title game after one of the greatest quarterbacks ever was injured.The overall plan and execution against reeling Florida has covered up a 7 yard per play average by the Florida offense that came short in the red zone from blowing up the scoreboard. The offense, while well coached and consistently good, will never be like the 2005 Texas offense, or the 2004-05 USC offenses, or the better Florida offenses. In college football, it’s hard to be king if you aren’t bringing the biggest gun. Also, they have fewer overall resources than at number 1.

1). Texas

Surprised? Mack Brown has built something that will last and a program that he’ll have a tough time giving up before a few more years with all the talent and potential.

When it comes to recruiting, Texas has been able to select their talent from arguably the deepest state in the country and then mold it with some of the finer coaches available (except on O-line what are they doing?). With the recent success in the Dallas area Texas has overcome the stigma there of being racist and combined with their success in the annual Dallas game the last 5 years and the growth of Central Texas football has Texas in great position in this state.

The overall coaching of the talent is fantastic. The offenses have been successfully built around quarterback strengths (even if it took some time) and have consistently pounded the lesser competition while showing just enough versatility in recent big games.

The defense is now in the hands of one of the better defensive teachers and minds in the game (all those SEC schools are constantly trying to lure him away) and the long-term stability of the program has been placed in his hands.

Also the money, it’s real good at Texas right now. So let’s review Texas’ situation in the upcoming decade:

1). Reeling Rivals: Tommy Tuberville is a great coach and Texas Tech is a looming danger next season. But the year to year danger from the Mike Leach offenses and the tremendous hassle of trying to prepare for that offense every year was a big burden and an easy stumbling block. Well that’s gone now. Texas A&M only looks good against Texas and Mike Sherman’s project wavers from week to week. Oklahoma is reeling. They’ll be good, for sure, but they’ve been put in their place.

2). Great recruiting. This is just a constant.

3). Staff stability. If there’s one thing we’ve seen about Greg Davis it’s that he isn’t going anywhere. Duane Akina withstood a demotion to keep coaching up first rate defensive backs in Austin and we discussed Muschamp.

It’s easy to foresee how there will be seasons in the Big 12 like 2009 where Texas has great pieces in place and can roll over the rest of these squads. Easier, I have argued, then it is for any other school in the nation. We’ll see if I’m right.

Championship game thoughts

2010-01-10T19:04:00.000-08:00

Final thoughts on 2009-10
I hinted that Texas had the weapons to burn Alabama but I was suprised at how easily they were almost able to pull it off. If not for...

1). What if Colt hadn’t been hurt?

Ugh, you couldn’t have written a more terrible and undeserving end to Colt’s time at Texas. Injured 5 plays into the game while 2-2 and leading the offense down the field. There were a few points here where you Texas has no one to blame for themselves for what happened. For instance, all year I said “Why aren’t they playing Gilbert more?” He should have been rotated into meaningful series against teams like Baylor or other weaker conference foes. If he isn’t redshirting and he is the real backup then he needs real game experience. Instead we had to watch him grow up over the course of a national championship game.

Secondly, the play call there was bad. I understand the appreciation Greg Davis has for the speed option and its usefulness in getting the ball to the running back on the perimeter. Our scouting of Alabama said they were slow and vulnerable to our speed on the edge and the sweeps and Receiver tunnel screens demonstrated that point really well. However, as dedfischer on tortillaretort.com pointed out,

“A stretch option play with reach blocking? Really? I can’t recall for sure, and feel free to correct me, but weren’t you always coached on defense to stretch the option out? I swear I think that’s right. Think about that for a minute and you’ll find the epitome of why Texas lost this game.”

This play has been a terrible one for 2 seasons for Texas. The speed option is a good play used well by other teams but Texas never blocks it effectively and 9 times out of 10 it puts Colt in a no-win situation where he can pitch the ball for a huge loss or take a big hit for a smaller loss. Go back and watch the OU game and you’ll see a promising Texas drive started by a turnover killed by a speed option run for a 9 yard loss.

It was a fluke hit that happened to hurt Colt where hundreds of hits before hadn’t, but really that’s the chance you take when your offense is dependent on one quarterback. I talked about this with my first post on this blog when I argued that some teams in the NFL should try treating quarterback like another position (acceptable to see injury) and run an option offense.

Now that I’ve said all that let me also add one more caveat before making a big point about the Colt injury, it’s impossible to know if Texas would have won. Alabama ran the ball very effectively and only slowed down in the 3rd quarter when protecting a lead. You have to conclude that Alabama is the better team and worthy champion. Texas wasn’t prepared for a Colt injury and were risking it all the time by making the offense Colt-dependent, having shaky offensive-line play, being Shipley dependent, and calling that stupid speed option play in the National Championship.

So what if Colt hadn’t been hurt? I think Texas wins that game. Alabama’s defense, I pondered the day of the game and moreso as the game went on, was an inferior unit to the one Texas faced at the Cotton Bowl in October. Their safeties were slow and couldn’t turn their hips in coverage. Remember when Texas A&M went 5-wide and picked on Blake Gideon, Brewster and the linebackers in coverage? Texas did that hardcore in the 2nd half. Alabama was lining up safeties on Jordan Shipley, a stupid strategy that was quickly resulting in big points from the Texas offense.

Alabama’s running game was effective, but you can run for 200 yards without scoring much just as you can throw for 200 yards without scoring much. It all adds up the same. Alabama’s passing game was just about the most helpless one Texas faced all season. They were no better equipped to handle Kindle and the Texas pass rush than they were to hold off an elephant stampede. Greg McElroy, one of the worst quarterbacks I saw this entire season, completed 6 of 11 passes and was sacked 5 times. In other words, when Alabama threw the ball one of 2 things happened and they each happened about evenly, McElroy would complete a pass or be sacked.

This is particularly relevant given Texas’ early special teams’ success and field position. If McCoy could have led Texas to an early lead and forced McElroy to have to throw the ball Texas could have won in a route. At the least it’s hard to see how Alabama could have scored enough to match Texas because they couldn’t handle Texas’ speed at running back, wide receiver, or defensive line. I think this game could have played out either like the Utah game last year when Alabama got down early and blown out, or Texas may have won a game that was scored in the 20s and 30s where Alabama is out of their element.

However at the end of the day, Texas’ wide receivers had 17 drops, Gilbert had to pull a super-gritty performance out with no experience, and the offensive line gave up a game-costing sack/fumble when they had 5 lineman to block 3 rushers because of a miscommunication. Also, Alabama had great defensive schemes, strong play from the front 7, and easily the best running game Texas faced all year. They are a worthy champion.

2). The Saban love-fest is stupid. Look, the guy lost to Utah in a bowl game and easily could have lost this game had he not been lucky enough to see the winningest quarterback in NCAA history go down at the onset of the game. All the attention paid to his 2nd Championship distracted from the fact that it was Alabama’s championship (the other came at SEC rival LSU). All of this is the media’s fault, Saban was quick to credit Alabama and their football program and players. He’s a little uptight, defensive-minded napoleon syndrome, SEC coach who gets a mad amount of attention for what amounts to being one of a several great coaches in the NCAA right now.

3). The shovel-pass; while a complete disaster, questionable, and might have cost the game, should not be laid at the coach’s feet as the reason why Texas lost. I heard some idiot on the radio blaming Mack Brown for the whole game for calling the shovel pass and accusing Mack of blaming it’s failure on Gilbert. First of all, that blame was never placed by Mack. If anyone was to be blamed it was DJ Monroe for playing hot potato with the pass. The story here is this, when you have a freshman making a throw under pressure to another freshman calamity is possible. You can say that it was too much of a risk, but as Mack correctly stated, the shovel pass is one of the lowest risk plays you can run. This was the equivalent of running a running back draw on 3rd and 15. It usually doesn’t work but it has the potential and it’s safer than forcing a throw downfield. Mack was searching for some momentum to head into halftime with. Maybe it was unnecessary and clearly it was disastrous, you can blame the execution or reliance on freshman on the coaches if you want, but the reasoning was sound and the risk was very low despite the results.

4). Texas loses a lot from this team, this was the big title shot. Alabama might be in position to repeat next year, Trent Richardson is coming back, McElroy will be back but they’d be just as good with anyone back there who can hand a ball off or stare at a wide receiver on a play-action pass.

Namely, Texas loses the class of defensive players that took over 2 years ago with Muschamp and transformed this unit into a nationally elite unit. Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, Roddrick Muckelroy, Earl Thomas are leaving, each the best at his respective level of defense. Lamarr Houston was one of the best defensive tackles in the whole nation this season. He had 10 tackles against Alabama, including a sack and a few tackles for loss. If not for Suh and Gerald McCoy he would have received credit as being an elite tackle.

On offense a generation of lineman are passing on along with the legendary Colt-Jordan connection. Chris Hall went down and the game and was replaced with the superior David Snow, Adam Ulatoski was a worthy player who is graduating. Charlie Tanner was a questionable talent who worked his way into a starting role and held on by knowledge and seniority. The next generation line could be considerably more talented as whole, though it will certainly struggle some next year.
We’ll talk soon about the holes and question marks for the 2010 unit but I’ll finish today with Garret Gilbert. My only concern heading into the 2nd half of the championship game was that Texas be able to break 10 for pride’s sake and that Gilbert not be scarred for life and crippled as a quarterback. Instead he pulled out what was almost a legendary performance that could have rivaled Vince Young’s Rose Bowl masterpieces and lost at the end on a play that wasn’t his fault. He’s a keeper for sure and he can burn teams downfield with his arm. I’m welcoming the Garret Gilbert era with arms open wide, apparently so are Mack Brown and Greg Davis as it’s rumoured that Mack Brown plans to stick around 3 more years (the exact remaining eligibility of Gilbert at Texas) and has been waiting with Greg for Gilbert “their whole careers”. It’s also rumoured that this time line is acceptable to Muschamp…thank God.

Defense and Special teams, or How Texas wins the National Championship

2010-01-04T18:44:00.000-08:00

You can read the scouts preview on ESPN.com now. It amounts to basically the same analysis provided here in regards to the Alabama Defense vs. the Texas offense. Unless Texas has some big wrinkles to throw off the ‘bama defenders or a new offensive line there probably won’t be much scoring by the good guys on Thursday.

Alabama’s offense, while not as adept at piling up points as Texas’, is ultimately more difficult to dominate. Power running is the name of the game but the passing game can punish you with play-action, the screen game, and a few very good targets. Basically, they have the one dimension that’s dominant, like Texas’ short passing game, but then effective constraint plays that prevent teams from loading up against Ingram whereas Texas has not consistently punished teams with the run or deep pass.

Let’s begin with Ingram. He racked up 1500 yards, 15 touchdowns, never fumbled and won the Heisman trophy as the best offensive player on a team whose success was built on defense. Now that this topic is up I might as well state that I believe that Gerhart was a better running back candidate and Suh the most dominant player of the finalists. McCoy had a strong year but was part of a team (McCoy-Shipley) that saw 12 wins mostly because of dominant defense. Tebow was put there more out of respect than for recognition of a particularly brilliant season, just another fantastic one.

Just as Texas will rely on Colt to carry the offense Alabama would prefer Ingram to put up a Heisman defense and leave the game out of McElroy’s hands. McElroy is a good player himself and threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Occasionally he would make downfield throws from play-action plays or deep throws with Maze and Julio Jones going high-low on the same side of the field. He wasn’t asked to make a lot of contested throws like Colt has made and hasn’t shown the ability if asked. Texas will try to ask him to win the game with dangerous throws against coverage as often as possible. The best way is with a lead, the more likely way is on third downs. Even in games where the run has been stalled Saban would call 35-40 running plays to speed the clock and protect McElroy.

Alabama’s offensive line is a run-blocking machine. They drive defenders off the ball and they can handle a good d-line. They ran the ball for at least 100 yards on every opponent except for Auburn. Florida gave up 251 rushing yards and was gashed over the course of the game, a bad indicator for the Texas line. In pass protection they are considerably weaker. The right tackle is a clear weakness and Left tackle hasn’t been sorted out either after they lost Andre Smith last year to the NFL.

Maze and Julio Jones are the major receivers to worry about and both put up just over 500 yards on the season. Maze is the faster, deep threat while Jones is a big physical receiver with good speed himself. Ingram is dangerous on screens and tight end Colin Peek is another valuable check down option that frustrates efforts to shut down the run.

Auburn loaded up to stop the run and found some real success but ultimately were actually defeated by McElroy. Florida attempted the same to find Alabama coming out in spread sets and throwing the ball on their vaunted secondary. Muschamp will surely learn the valuable lesson from that game and not assume that loading 8 men in the box will result in victory even if it stops Ingram.

Alabama has a great punt returner in Javier Arenas (ironically the man likely to be assigned to Jordan Shipley) and will be dangerous in the kicking game. Texas has all of its special teams’ stars healthy, off suspension or eligible as the case may be, and ready to go now. After a month to practice they should have been able to focus on correcting issues with kickoff coverage. Christian Scott is back on the team and will resume serving on kickoff coverage. With Scott, Vaccarro and Antwan Cobb Texas should be much better in coverage for this game.

With that overview let’s examine the crucial matchups:

1). Predator vs. Swat Team Member 4

Drew Davis has struggled in pass protection this season. He’s the right tackle for Alabama and now he’s heading to the urban jungle to deal with what he thinks is a major urban drug bust. Sergio Kindle has destroyed running plays this season by simply blowing into the backfield or catching guys from behind. It is my belief that Texas will utilize its 3-4 defense against Alabama at various points to disrupt blocking schemes and create particular matchups. In such scenarios Kindle typically lines up outside the right tackle and assaults him with the speed rush. If you’ve seen recent Cowboys games you likely have some grasp of what a player like DeMarcus Ware can do in a ball game. Kindle needs to have a game that draws comparisons to Ware because this is a matchup Texas can’t fail to exploit as the upside is turnovers and punts.

2). Texas D-line vs. Alabama O-line

Given the failures by teams to control the Alabama passing game while loading up against the run, along with Muschamp’s strategies in other games against power-running teams over the last few years, I predict that Texas will most likely face Ingram with an honest front (as many defenders as blockers) except for situational circumstances like 3rd and 1.

Texas has a 3-4 alignment with Alexander/Randall as nose tackle with Acho and Lamarr Houston as 5-tech defensive ends. This alignment caused big problems for Nebraska when they tried to deal with Acho inside or asked someone to reach block Houston in time before he wrecked everything. Penetration is always the best way to kill a running game but particularly for the Longhorns who don’t want Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho having to fight off blocks but instead chasing obvious pursuit angles on the runners. The ‘bama line is good and they get help from the tight end and fullback in various formations, but Muschamp will try to scheme favorable matchups for the d-lineman do more with less.

The team that performed best against Alabama this season, Tennessee, did so by containing the running game AND the passing game. So again it’s essential that Texas not have to load 8 defenders in the box against the run and be able to create pressure with 3-5 defenders and induce difficult throws against a great secondary. It’s also possible Texas will throw some big blitzes ala the Tech game blitzes that nearly ended Taylor Potts.

3). Earl Thomas vs. McElroy

Earl Thomas’ interception vs. Oklahoma State was a perfect example of what he offers on defense, a rover who understands the offenses intent and can get to the ball in a hurry. McElroy hasn’t really seen anything like him this season and could be baited into a trap. Here’s where the performance by the D-line really comes in, a few pressures on McElroy which lead him into throwing into a tight spot can turn into easy points with Thomas and the rest of this secondary. Field position and non-offensive points are crucial in a game like this so it’s important that Thomas get the better end of this matchup and be responsible for a turnover or two by jumping a route or closing in on an attempt. Also of note, Greg McElroy looks like kid Robin Williams from Jumanji before he go beat up outside his dad's shoe factory.

4). Special Teams vs. Field Position

Alabama has Javier Arenas, a good punt returner with 1 touchdown this season and negligible performance from their kick returns. Texas has Shipley, who has 2 punt return tds on the season, and a host of talented kick returners. Shipley can be effective there, as we’ve seen, but Goodwin had a monster return against A&M and Monroe contributed 2 more on the season. Texas gave up 12 points to Nebraska because of field position. The Nebraska offense was virtually ineffective except for getting 10 yards here or there and getting in field goal range. Texas, on the other side, had to drive the length of the field to get any points.

Pinning Alabama on kickoffs with good coverage and the rugby punt is the start. A special teams or defensive touchdown is almost essential, I believe, for Texas to win this game unless they are consistently creating fantastic field position for Texas. A few big plays to Shipley here and there are likely but multiple full-field drives I have trouble imagining unless Greg Davis has finally found the wrinkle that will make his offense game-planning proof. The decade’s evidence seems to suggest otherwise. No team has blocked more kicks this decade than Texas, now would be a good time for a timely reminder of what a special teams monster Texas can be. As my uncle Johnny suggested, “I think 20 wins it don’t you?” Yes, I do.

5). Texas’ Back 7 vs. the SEC

The Big 12 is built around spreading teams out and killing them in space or individual matchups with speed, precision, and option routes/runs. Alabama just knocks you over and takes your lunch. Consequently, Texas’ back 7 is built to handle running sideline to sideline and covering people. One advantage of this is Texas preponderance of excellent man-coverage defenders. The only way teams have been able to hurt Texas is by having enough skill players to force Texas to cover good players with linebackers or white safeties OR by having a running threat at quarterback. The former takes about 4 good receiving options.

Last year Texas’ linebackers were less practiced and well versed in stopping power plays. This year they’ve made big steps and it has certainly been a point of emphasis in bowl practices. The one place Texas might want a big, nasty defender instead of a Big 12 style guy is at Middle linebacker but you aren’t upgrading Roddrick Muckelroy inside the tackles against Ingram with anyone who has played at Texas in the last 10 years (as my all-decade team established).

In other news, McElroy isn’t much of a running threat, I don’t care about his little tight-walk scramble against Florida. If Greg is forced to do that against Texas he’ll get in trouble fast. Reeling Florida wasn’t ready but lightning won’t strike twice. Texas will be unafraid of matching up Julio Jones and Maze in man coverage. Alabama lines up in 3-wide sets frequently, which might match Chykie against Julio Jones, Curtis Brown vs. Maze and Aaron Williams vs. the slot or tight end. None of these are matchups Texas will be hesitant about. The cover-1 robber with Gideon in deep support and Earl roving the middle of the field can sneak 7 defenders in the box and man-up the receivers with the deepest corp of corners Alabama has likely faced save maybe for Florida. There will probably be some 2-deep man under as well perhaps with 3 safeties on the field and Thomas on the slot receiver.

This is a big opportunity for Big 12 style squad to face up to the SEC mythological giant and prove to be a more athletic and versatile product. Florida’s defense is fantastic but was missing their Kindle (Carlos Dunlap) and had a defensive coordinator interviewing for other jobs. I’m think speed wins round 2 against this bunch and Alabama fails to reach 20.

6). The Wildcard

Christian Scott didn’t make significant progress towards a degree and was ruled academically ineligible for the 2009 season. When exams ended in December Scott became eligible again due to his academic recovery. I thought it was most likely that Scott would supplant Gideon as the safety opposite little Earl at the season’s onset and there were reports from practices and the players that suggested Scott might be the most talented safety on the team. Scott is a much larger defender at 6-1 210 pounds than either Gideon or Thomas. He’s also faster than Gideon and one of the more rangy players on the team. When Gideon was knocked out of the Kansas game the previous season Scott came in and almost immediately knocked the offending Jayhawk out along with the ball.

He’s a downhill safety who can make big plays in the running game while providing a little more coverage range in the deep field. Texas will certainly use him for kickoff coverage and have left open the possibility of him playing safety regularly in the game.

When Texas is in the “big nickel” where Earl Thomas moves down to cover the slot receiver and Gideon and Nolan Brewster divide the deep field in 2-deep coverage it’s possible Muschamp will insert Scott in as one of those safeties and suddenly the big nickel becomes a more valuable option against Alabama. Or, if Scott entirely replaces Gideon from practice results Texas might add a better run defender and overall player to the starting eleven. Personally I think seeing him instead of Brewster in the big nickel is the most likely optimist view as Muschamp will be wary of using players that might succumb to play-action fakes. It’s late in the season to jump in as an every down player. Consider Scott a potential ace in the hole though, and the Championship game a potential coming out party.

Big Nickel

7). Hunter Lawrence vs. Leigh Tiffin

Hunter Lawrence has made 22 of 25 field goal attempts and is virtually automatic inside of 50 yards including a long of 49. He nailed a final second kick to seal a conference championship from 46 yards (that would be that Nebraska game) and has the ghosts of Ryan Bailey (actually on the bench), David Pino, Kris Stockton and Dusty Mangum watching over him.

Tiffin has made 29 of 33 attempts and has a long of 50 yards although he’s slightly less consistent inside of 50. He’s certainly a good kicker but it was a blocked kick that sealed the deal for Alabama late, not a Tiffin make.

Let me put it this way, would you rather have a guy name Leigh or a Texan named Hunter kicking the field goal to win a national championship for your team. Case closed.

So that’s it. If I’ve painted a bleak picture then don’t hurry to check how Vegas perceives this game because the general consensus is that Alabama has the better team. I like the Texas defense more but Alabama’s is certainly one of the better in the country. Texas has a more dangerous offense but Alabama’s is more consistent and difficult to totally shut down. Special teams and the ability to create turnovers however are a distinct advantage for Mack who fields a player with 8 interceptions and a pair of brothers whose presence seems to will the ball to the Texas side (Emmanuel and Sam Acho with 6 total recovered fumbles, 5 forced fumbles and an interception). Finally, let me mention that Greg McElroy is a freshman and Colt a seasoned senior. Let’s the tip the scale back to even and call Texas 20-17 with a Hunter Lawrence field goal sealing the deal. Hook em.

The Texas All-Decade Team: Football

2010-01-01T12:01:00.000-08:00

We’ve just passed the typical point where the “All Decade” teams are assembled on the blogs and major sports media sites so it seems like common sense to put up my own take on the All-decade team for the Texas Longhorn football program. If there is any sport in any decade that I’m qualified to assemble the all-decade team for it just might be Texas football however beyond just my memory I’ve also examined stats, context, and overall aura of greatness.

I also found it most useful to steal Bill Simmons technique in “the Book of Basketball” when he chooses his wine cellar team. The premise is this, if highly skilled Martians came and challenged the earth to a basketball game for the fate of humanity and you could assemble a team by using a time machine and picking players from their best seasons who would you select. In the case of college football, many stars only have 1 or 2 seasons as upperclassmen and developed starters. I’ve chosen the best seasons by Longhorns that I’m aware of for this squad. If one player had a 3 year span of excellence but couldn’t surpass a single season of elite play from a player at the same position he was left off. The goal here is to win a single season championship (or single game against the Martians), longevity isn’t weighed.

Offense: We’re running the Vince Young zone-read offense although we might be a little more aggressive in the passing game than Texas in 04 or 05 given the depth of receivers to work with. Vince was hitting a lot of guys standing still, we’ll try and get them on the move.

QB: Vince Young 05’
Vince Young’s national championship season. Perhaps the greatest offense in college football history was built entirely around Vince’s running skills, improvisational skills, and leadership. No one else on that offensive squad, besides the O-line and David Thomas, could really be described at that point in their career as more than a role player. Vince was an absolute force in 2005 and the best defense in college football that year couldn’t stop him at home with an intensely hostile crowd. Even if Colt should win the championship with a heroic effort this season he won’t have had a single season like Vince in 2005.

RB’s: Cedric Benson 04’, Jamaal Charles 07’
We are platooning Benson and Charles here. Benson in 2004 thrived in the zone-read offense with Vince even though he preferred the I-Formation sets he started in with Chris Simms at QB. He was the ultimate “move the chains” running back who wore down defenses with 4 yards, 5 yards, 6 yards, 17 yards, 3 yards, and so on. Little Ricky minus-2.

Jamaal Charles had a slow start in 2007 that somehow resulted in 1665 rushing yards at 6.3 yards per carry. Texas has probably never had a bigger home-run threat at running back. I would prefer if Charles were a better 3rd down back to run flares, screens and draws but he didn’t excel there in 2007. Regardless, he is the ultimate change of pace runner for Benson’s bruising style.

TE: David Thomas 05’
Texas has had several good and potentially good tight ends this decade. Bo Scaife was a great weapon for Simms and Vince, JerMichael Finley was perhaps the most athletic and underutilized, Blaine Irby could have been the best before he blew out his knee. As it stands, the ultimate safety-valve receiver gets the nod here. Thomas, recently waived by the Patriots, now spends time playing halfback, fullback, tight end, and slot receiver for the Saints offensive machine. Simply the best.

Split End: Roy Williams 02’
Roy Williams was a large and powerful man who once dragged the entire Oklahoma State secondary 10 yards and on another occasion ran a reverse against LSU where his acceleration completely overwhelmed the defense. He’s your best big outside receiver of the decade. Maybe Sweed could have surpassed him if not for a broken wrist in 2007.

LT: Mike Williams 01’
A huge and imposing man who became a top 5 draft pick. He’s physically the best left tackle Texas has started, although he actually started at Right Tackle with Leonard Davis at Left tackle. However, on the right side he protected Simms’ blindside (left-handed thrower). Given Davis’ move to guard at the NFL level I think Williams fits best at the all-important pass-protecting spot. If I’m wrong Vince will make up for it.

LG: Kasey Studdard 06’
Studdard earned his way onto the Houston Texan’s starting offensive line as a 6th round draft choice. He wasn’t one of the more athletically gifted players but simply one of the most effective. As a run blocker, pass blocker, zone-blocker and on the field enforcer he can’t be matched.

C: Lyle Sendlein 06’
Studdard’s partner in crime on the interior line is now a starter for the Arizona Cardinals after being undrafted. He was a two time all-conference center and by and far the most competent one Texas has had this decade.

RG: Derrick Dockery 02’
Dockery was a freshman starter and All-American in 2002. Umm, alright Mr. Dockery take your place.

RT: Justin Blalock 06’
Another All-American and 4 year starter. Blalock was a force to behold, routinely flattening multiple defenders while paving the way for Texas runners. He’s a guard at the Pro-level but a menace anywhere in the college level. Let the record show that his man was never getting to Vince, Colt, or any other quarterback.

Sub B: Jordan Shipley 09’
The Slot receiver. If Shipley could be paired with Colt on a ticket they would win best tandem of the year and perhaps the decade. I’m not sure what to say here, he’s had 2 1,000 yard seasons including 09’ in which he has posted 1363 despite being heavily targeted by defenses along with 11 touchdowns. He’s a mortal lock to be the next Wes Welker or Stokley at the Pro-level and very likely surpass them. Those were white guys with great skill inside, Shipley is an elite talent at receiver as a football player, not just a white man.

Flanker: Quan Cosby 08’
You could play Cosby or Shipley at any of the receiving positions and they would produce. Since Roy has unmatched size and athleticism he’s going outside against the press-coverage while Cosby goes here. Quan provided downfield blocking, screen blocking, deep receptions, short receptions and anything else you might conceivably ask of a wide receiver. In terms of production and value, he and Shipley are the best to play this position this decade at Texas.

Defense
RE: Orakpo 08’
Defensive line was probably the most hotly contested place on the All-Decade team. The role of blindside rusher was never in any doubt. Orakpo’s 08 season had more sacks (11.5) than any other season by a texas defender to go along with 30 quarterback hurries, 4 Forced fumbles, and 19 tackles for loss. No one exploded around the edge like Brian Orakpo in the 2000s.

NT: Marcus Tubbs 03’
Casey Hampton and Shaun Rogers I disqualified since they only played one season in this decade, and quite simply they make it too easy. Marcus Tubbs was in close competition with Roy Miller with similar numbers but Tubbs was an all-around more productive player adding 2 forced fumbles and 2 blocked kicks to his resume. He learned from Hampton and Rogers and so he learned from the best. Derek Lokey is third-team.

T: Lamarr Houston 09’
Rodrique Wright has generall been considered the best 3-tech tackle Texas has had this decade. His 2003 season was dominant with 80 tackles, 12 for loss, 7.5 sacks, 30 hurries, and 3 forced fumbles. Okam looked to maybe surpass him but couldn’t stay healthy or light enough. Lamarr Houston, in his 2nd season playing the position alongside a redshirt freshman teammate put up 58 tackles, 20 for loss, 7 sacks, and 28 hurries. Wright was playing next to Marcus Tubbs for his season.

LE: Cory Redding 02’
Sergio Kindle was the competition here although Kindle has been used in a variety of places including Orakpo’s spot, a linebacker lining up like a Left End, and straight up as the left end. As dominant a player as Kindle has been, Cory Redding was a monster. In 02 he had 24 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 37 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 forced fumbles. 37 quarterback hurries! Redding was in the backfield all day long. Ultimately his 02 campaign was the most dominant season by a defensive lineman this decade for Texas.

WLB: Derrick Johnson 04’
DJ had 3 seasons with a least 120 tackles. His senior year he mastered the ball punching move and forced 9 fumbles. He is one of the best linebackers Texas has ever had and would likely start at Weakside linebacker for the All time Texas team. After reviewing his numbers I felt stupid for even thinking that Muckelroy might have been comparable.

MLB: Roddrick Muckelroy 09’
Muckelroy is really a weakside linebacker. The role of the WLB is typically to be a fast cleanup player who reaches the play on pursuit and can run from sideline to sideline. That’s where Muck will play in the pros. In 2009 after Jared Norton went down with injury Muck was moved to Middle Linebacker and proceeded to still have his best season as a Longhorn. He took Beanie Wells out of the 2009 fiesta bowl and probably has similar designs for Heisman winner Mark Ingram.

SLB: (Reed Boyd) Texas has not fielded an all-conference caliber Strongside linebacker this decade so we are going nickel full-time. Emmanuel Acho has little competition from the past in becoming the best Mack Brown SLB, all his competition will be in practice. Reed Boyd had some nice seasons but got moved to Middle linebacker.

Since Muschamp (of course) is our defensive coordinator we are using his “big nickel, little nickel” packages based on opponent and situation. The little nickel is better for pass defense and vice versa. Either would really just dominate anything anyone trotted out against it.

Big Nickel:
Nickel: Earl Thomas 09’
Earl is small but it pays to have him close to the line because he can force a fumble, jump a short route and is fearless in run support (a common theme here). He is one of the better playmakers Texas has fielded in the secondary over the whole decade while only a sophomore.

Corner: Nathan Vasher 03’
Vasher had seasons with 7, 4 and 6 interceptions. He was another one of those mean little guys that blew up unsuspecting skill players and simply got his hands on the football routinely.

Free Safety: Michael Griffin 06’
Michael Griffin is one the stronger tacklers in the history of the Texas secondary while also a rangy pass defender. In 2006 Griffin took on a little more than he could chew due to the schemes of Chizik but still had a massively productive season. In 05 and 06 combined he had 6 blocked kicks and 5 forced fumbles. Like Vasher and Earl he played mean, only with size and strength to really punish.

Strong Safety: Michael Huff 05’
Thorpe Award winner and all around menace, Huff took on the task of spying Reggie Bush in the 2006 Rose Bowl with not a trace of fear. He never put up big interception numbers but he was an excellent tackler and could force the ball out and make explosive breaks on the ball. If this team simply manned up the receivers and let Griffin and Huff play over the top there would never be any big plays. Teams avoided Huff like the plague and challenging him and Griffin deep was a poor idea that led to disastrous results for Matt Leinart in the Rose Bowl.

Corner: Aaron Ross 06’
Always one of the more athletic of the group of mid 00 defensive backs Ross finally got his chance in 06. He won the Thorpe award and had big game winning plays against Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Iowa. His 6 interceptions, 19 pass breakups and 3 forced fumbles are just a big picture illustration of the way he consistently foiled attempts to defeat the Freshman Colt-led Longhorns over the course of 2006.

Small Nickel:
Corner: Quentin Jammer
We add Jammer for the small nickel and move Vasher inside where he can blow up runners overlooking his sub-6 foot frame and we add the best physical press-coverage man of the decade. Many would put Cedric Griffin here and perhaps Curtis Brown, Chykie Brown or Aaron Williams will overtake them both but no one frustrated attempts to get the ball to the best receiver like Jammer. He had 44 pass breakups over 00 and 01 while simply physically overmatching receivers and “jamming” them off their routes into the sidelines. He only misses the first team for Vasher’s ability to take away the ball.

Free Safety: Earl Thomas: 09’
Strong Safety: Michael Huff 05’
Nickel corner: Nathan Vasher 03’
Corner: Aaron Ross 06’

So, we have an offense that will run the ball on everyone while taking easy shots over the middle to Thomas, Cosby or Shipley or the occasion deep shot to Roy Williams. No team is covering all those guys against Vince. To give him that kind of time and weapons at the college level would mean at least 50 points every game. The defense, meanwhile, is perfectly assembled to simply blow up anything the offense might try to do from the outset of the play while still being backed by likely the best All-decade secondary of any team in the nation.
Any thoughts on unfair omissions or anything else?

We’ll do a basketball one next and eventually get to Muschamp’s plan to beat his old boss.

Colt's last hurrah: Texas offense vs. Alabama's Defense

2009-12-20T20:50:00.000-08:00

In the last post we discussed Texas’ great difficulties with elite defenses this year. You may recall that in this space at the beginning of the year I called 2009 “revenge of the defense”. Teams were losing skill players, quarterbacks and offensive line talent while major programs were returning major defensive players.

Anyways, Texas was absolutely wrecked in the trenches against Oklahoma in passing situations and in all phases against Nebraska. Major weaknesses have been exposed in the tendencies and the Offensive-line play. Typically, Greg Davis coached Texas is great on offense when they have a dominant trait that no one can stop with any reasonable allocation of defensive resources despite the obvious tendencies. For instance:

In 2008 Texas had the 3 step West Coast passing game with Colt McCoy throwing to Jordan Shipley and the Quan Cosby. No one could cover Quan and Shipley long enough when Colt would make a quick strike pass or dance around buying time. In 2005 (perhaps the greatest college offense ever) Texas had Vince Young running the shotgun-spread with the option and passing game. It was the perfect combination of a legendary talent with the right supporting cast, including an elite level O-line.

In 2004 Texas had Vince and Cedric Benson and the passing game was a useful constraint to the 2-man beatings inflicted on the Big 12 as well as an additional means of giving Vince space to run. When the passing game had matured by the Rose Bowl the offense was close to the 2005 juggernaut.

The other Texas offenses, no matter how talented, were ultimately susceptible usually due to weak line play or over reliance on one trait. This Texas team came into the year trying to run the same 4-wide 3 step passing game as last year and found that Quan hadn’t been replaced and that teams had worked out how to clamp down on the few routes that had devastated everyone the year before. A lot of teams on the schedule did this and it ultimately amounted to soft coverage where the defenders were free to jump the routes they knew were coming. Without other offensive weapons this Texas offense has been easy to handle for better defenses.

Now Alabama’s defensive scheme is not entirely like Nebraska’s or OUs’ style although closest to the latter. In scheme it’s perhaps most similar to what Texas has run on defense this year under Will Muschamp (who coached under Nick Saban as defensive coordinator at LSU and the Miami Dolphins). As I’ve mentioned, they lack a dominant 3-tech style tackle like Suh or McCoy to blow up the middle of the Longhorn line. Instead they use Terrance Cody to clog the middle and free up their big, athletic ends and linebackers (like All-American McClain) to blow up the middle or the edge. They use the same kind of 4-3 under defense that Muschamp uses and rotate between the 4-3 and 3-4 most frequently using the 3-4.

McClain is a 260 pound monster Middle Linebacker and the ends and other linebackers are pretty fast, downhill players. Corner Javier Arenas is a fantastic cover-guy and the safeties are OU, cover-2 downhill types that can make a big hit but aren’t covering anyone in the slot like Earl Thomas. Both are 215+ and used to handling SEC offenses with lots of power running and the play-action pass.

Alabama was built to destroy these SEC powers and namely Florida. Urban Meyer’s gator squad this year was strongest in the running game getting the fast backs on the edge or getting TE Hernandez the ball in the option game or any other way that occurs to Meyer. Tebow and the power running game could not consistently produce offense against Alabama’s perpetually unblocked linebackers and safeties, although in this game Florida had good yardage without points.

No one has really had any success against Alabama this season, but then none of Alabama’s opponents have had a ton of success against anyone of note. The more schematically advanced Auburn and Florida saw some limited success and Tennessee threw the ball fairly effective and had 10 points to show for it (as well as 2 blocked field goals). The 2005 Texas Offense and this defense would win the game by 30 points. As it is, this will be quite the struggle, I present the following considerations:

1). The immovable object vs. the wheel

Chris Hall will be lined up directly against Terrance Cody on most every offensive play. Chris Hall is most, or I might say only, useful in space. He can no sooner drive block Cody off the ball than he can levitate. The first might be the even less likely given Hall’s great faith. Unless God gives his faithful servant some such supernatural gift or Chris reworks his 295 pound frame into different proportions the Longhorns will have tremendous trouble in the running game getting blockers to McClain and the rest of the back 7. I think Davis should consider abandoning the inside and outside zone runs unless he is running no-huddle.
Which brings us to the positive side of this matchup, while the Blob will not be driven away from the play, he isn’t getting to Colt and he is not going to blow up plays in the backfield save by occupying a guard and freeing up a linebacker. In the passing game, which Texas will very likely rely on entirely, he is almost useless. Additionally, his body is not built for stamina and he can be driven off the field by a no-huddle offense and then perhaps the running game can be opened up.

2). Speed vs. Power

Texas will be the fastest offense that Alabama plays this season. Florida has some speed but ultimately only a few ways to use it since the ball is usually in Tebow’s hands and the receivers aren’t deep. Malcolm Williams, Jordan Shipley, Marquise Goodwin, Colt (as a quarterback) all have the potential to cause new problems for the Alabama squad. Conversely, Alabama’s power in the trenches could blow up anything before it starts, and the safeties are great if things stay in front of them. It is essential for Texas to use misdirection in this game and take advantage of the speed at Wide Receiver or Bama will swallow up everything and force turnovers making hard plays on the ball.

The misdirection running play debuted against OU, the traditional counters, and the counter-draw must be the staples of the Texas running game. Cody Johnson will be useful only in short-yardage. The various wide receiver screens should be abandoned and replaced with fake screens that turn into pump-fake deep throws. The comeback hitch-routes Texas runs should be supplemented with double moves deep to Shipley. Greg Davis likes to come out, do what he always does and then attack the schemes he expected to see from the defense playing his normal stuff. For once, Texas should assume that Bama will jump the traditional plays like everyone else has and play misdirection early. A fast start and early lead would be totally foreign to Alabama.

If Texas can establish a running game it’s all over. Since they almost certainly will not establish one with any consistency the best bet for scoring is through a few big plays by breaking tendency. The one great advantage to being a team that always does the same thing and relies on talent is that the exceptions will shock and awe. Malcolm Williams is a home-run threat on every play. Alabama cannot handle someone that big and fast, no one can. Both safeties are slow and aggressive, thus very vulnerable if drawn into taking a false step. Their better corner, Arenas, will almost certainly be worried about Shipley. The linebackers, like the safeties, are great playing downhill but aren’t catching people from behind. One or two big plays could very well make the difference. Another possible big play is the Colt scramble which could very well keep a crucial drive alive or punch in points in a big way.

3). Texas O-line vs. legacy

Last year this line stepped up big when it mattered in Dallas and keyed a big Texas victory and 38 offensive points against OU (Shipley kickoff return). This year it hasn’t stepped up on the big stage and is largely to blame for Colt’s failure to win the Heisman in a wide-open year. With Malcolm Williams AND Jordan Shipley in the receiving corp plus Colt and a host of competent running backs the major block to offensive dominance has been a soft running game and weak pass-protection.

OU, in addition to having Gerald McCoy dominate the Texas guards, would zone-blitz and then blanket Shipley. If Alabama doesn’t do the same thing it would reverse what game-tape recommends as well as what Alabama has done all year. Primarily, Saban prefers the same man-free coverage Muschamp has used much of the year. He uses a robber in the middle of the field which he curiously calls “the rat” who rats out the other teams coverages, passes on responsibilities and jumps routes in the middle. Or Saban will use the additional player afforded by man coverage and 1 deep safety to blitz 5 men. All the linebackers are useful blitzers so there can be no certainty which might blitz on a given play, particularly with the zone-blitz.

If ever there was a challenge this line could step up and take on this is it. Confusing blitzes from aggressive players? Nothing these guys haven’t seen before. All of them are multi-year starters. Hall is good in pass protection so long as he isn’t facing a good pass-rushing tackle…he isn’t. Ulatoski is most vulnerable to good pass-rushers who can double move to the inside. I may be wrong but nuanced pass-rush moves aren’t the name of the game for any of Alabama’s guys. They will overload blitz and punish you for your predicted reaction. The Texas line is capable of meeting that challenge and their failure to do so will result in the loss of the Heisman and the national championship.

4). Greg Davis vs. Nick Saban

"Your move white..."
Obvious mismatch. Davis has to go for broke in this game. Run misdirection early in the game. Prepare the line for the blitz and utilize the superior athletes at Wide Receiver with hot routes and deep shots that can punish a defense that won’t look so elite on their heels trying to chase Marquise Goodwin. The traditional slip screens you see in video games and occasionally in Texas games would be a welcome staple. Newton isn’t terribly fast but he is a steady weapon. A steady diet of Fig Newtons will make anyone sick in a hurry. Speaking of hurrying, a fast tempo mixed with clever plays did a number on this defense last year when Utah embarrassed the Crimson Tide and with Texas athletes it could make for a big game. Most of Auburn’s points came this way. Alabama’s size and aggressiveness is begging for a no-huddle attack.

5). Colt McCoy vs. himself

Colt McCoy is a far better quarterback than Greg McElroy. Saban wants this game to be Ingram vs. Colt. Muschamp will try his damndest to make it McElroy vs. McCoy. If you gave me odds on who is more likely to have more turnovers between McElroy and Colt I would stare into space for a while and then just start praying. The only time Nebraska would dare to allow Zac Lee to throw the ball was on deep routes off of play action where an interception was like a punt. I very much suspect that Alabama will have a similar strategy on when they choose to allow McElroy to make something happen. Colt, on the other hand, will be looking to make things happen all day long. But turnovers cannot happen like they did with Nebraska and Oklahoma, Texas can’t afford to give away points. Colt will likely have to win the game scrambling and making things happen and at the same time must shoulder this without putting the defense in holes that can allow Alabama to accumulate field goals and the odd touchdowns. If he succeeds, we can finally start the discussion about how he stacks up to his predecessor.

Texas against the dominant defensive tackle: how will Texas deal with Alabama?

2009-12-14T16:38:00.000-08:00

Albert Haynesworth has at times been a dominant defensive tackle in the NFL, and so has Vince Wilfork. Ndamukong Suh was a dominant defensive tackle in the Big 12 this season while Terrance Cody dominated the SEC anchoring the middle of the Alabama defense.

This is Haynesworth:

This is Wilfork:

This is Suh:

This is Cody:

Anything stand out? While all of them are enormous men, they have different bodies and subsequently different physical skills. Wilfork is a big space eater who lines up across the center and defends the gaps to either side of the center. Haynesworth is an explosive athlete who attacks the gap between the Right Tackle and Right guard.

We’ll get back to that, first let’s examine some conventional wisdom regarding the Alabama vs. Texas matchup. In 2 games vs. high level defenses Texas won 12-10 and 16-13. In both games, the interior line for the Texas offense was humiliated and Colt McCoy took multiple sacks in each game.
I’d like to highlight the performances of the defensive tackles for Oklahoma and Nebraska in those games.
Gerald McCoy: 3 tackles including 2 for loss. 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries. You might also remember that his opponent, David Snow, was called for several false starts in a panic trying to deal with him.
For the season McCoy had 31 tackles, including 14.5 for loss and 5 sacks. He created 9 quarterback hurries.

Ndamukong Suh: 12 tackles including 7 for a loss of 22 yards. He had 4.5 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries. On the season he put up 77 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, one interception, 10 other passes broken up and 22 quarterback hurries.

A few things should stand out here. One is that both Suh and McCoy performed better against Texas than they did against most of the teams on their schedules. McCoy doubled his season’s quarterback hurry output against Texas alone. I have a few explanations for this
1). Chris Hall: He lines up in the center of the Texas offensive line. He completely lacks the necessary strength to stop the momentum of guys like this. He has talents and by all accounts is one of the finest young men at the university. But he is a soft interior lineman.
2). Huey’s ankle: Michael Huey is a much stronger interior lineman but he has had a bum ankle all season. It’s hard to use leverage against 280 pound men with a tender ankle.
3). David Snow’s bizarre regression. Sophomore Snow was expected to emerge as an elite interior lineman that could push the guards and Hall for their starting spots. That hasn’t happened and he looked completely lost against Gerald McCoy.

McCoy, overall, put up half of his quarterback hurries against Texas. The quarterback hurry is an underrated stat that indicates when a lineman is creating pressure on the quarterback that will lead to turnovers and incomplete passes. Gerald McCoy’s 5 quarterback hurries indicate that he was making a dwelling place in the Texas backfield in Dallas.
Suh dominated Texas to the point where nothing could be accomplished offensively because any and every play design was blown up before it could start. The frequent negative plays against Nebraska and OU stalled the Texas drives.

People want to look at these two games as a measure for how Texas will fare offensively against Alabama. It seems reasonable to conclude that since Texas won by 2 and 3 points against the two good defenses they faced (both of which were poor on offense), that an Alabama Team with an even better defense and very solid offense will consequently manhandle the Horns and walk away as champions.

I wanted to apply similar wisdom to the Texas matchup vs. Ohio State last season. Texas had amazing numbers against the run on defense while Ohio State was poor statistically against the pass. Those two bits of knowledge combined seemed to suggest a strong Texas victory. As it turned out, Texas’ front 7 was inexperienced against power running schemes and struggled with the Buckeye running game and containing Terrelle Pryor. Meanwhile, Ohio State gave up 300 passing yards but it required Colt throwing the ball over 45 times to do so and resulted in less than 25 points. That game was a forerunner in dealing with the Texas passing game that was matched in the following two games.

The gameplans used by Nebraska and OU against Texas were markedly different from each other. Nebraska just asked the defensive line to control the game and free up the back 7 defenders to sit on the Texas short passing routes they had mastered from watching game film. Some nice use of pattern reading allowed Nebraska to blow up the simple Texas offense by challenging all of Colt’s comfort reads and the domination by Suh and the D-line killed drives with negative plays.

Oklahoma could have done that as well, besides the somewhat meaningless downgrade from Suh to McCoy they have the best D-line in the conference. However, that would waste all the creative zone-blitzes Brent Venables had been writing on napkins in Oklahoma diners. Instead OU zone-blitzed Texas and rushed Colt into making hasty short throws where, again, the back 7 defenders were more than prepared for simple Texas passing routes.

So, Alabama can just get to McCoy really fast and sit on the short routes while the offense grinds out a methodical 20 points or so en route to an easy 24-9 victory right?
Well, it’s possible but they are missing one big ingredient to achieving that success. Remember those numbers put up by Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Su over the season? These were the numbers of Alabama’s star defensive tackle Terrance Cody:
25 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 pass broken up, 2 blocked kicks.
The only time Cody showed any real explosiveness up the middle was in blocking the field goals that gifted Alabama the victory over Tennessee.

The difference between Cody and Suh or McCoy is similar to the difference between Haynesworth and Wilfork. While McCoy and Suh are frequently facing double teams, like Cody, they aren’t just trying to occupy blockers and keep the line from moving defenders off the ball. They are attacking an interior gap and getting into the backfield. Terrance Cody isn’t getting into the opposing teams’ backfield. He’s occupying a center and a guard so that Rolando McClain or one of Alabama’s other big linebackers can get to the ball unimpeded. At 350+ pounds, Terrance Cody simply isn’t physically built to chase down Colt and disrupt the Texas passing game.

I’ll be back later with detailed analysis of the matchup between the Texas offense and Alabama defense but for now let’s just consider how the easy analysis can overlook the real details in matching up opponents on the gridiron. Nebraska and Oklahoma used different methods but ultimately relied on their dominant DT play to blow up the Texas offense. Alabama doesn’t play that way and while having a tremendously rare and valuable talent in Cody, they don’t have the personnel to get after Texas in the manner that Nebraska and OU did. Take a quick sigh of relief.

About those All-Big 12 Teams...

2009-12-01T13:41:00.000-08:00

The All-Big 12 lists that rank all the conference stars as 1st team, 2nd team and so on is predominantly based on preseason expectations. If a player is expected to be great, or is a senior, his place on the lists will reflect that. Coaches will make sure to soothe each other’s political desires and reward seniors, program kids and pretend like the preseason expectations were matched by the performance on the field.

Of course there is an exception to that standard; Texas is routinely robbed in the All-conference teams. In the instance of the newly released 2009 All Big 12 teams, Texas has 3 first team players. OU managed to get 4 players selected to this list and that offensive juggernaut Kansas St. placed 4 players, all on offense.

Before I look over other injustices how about we just look at the list?

1ST Team defense:

DE: Von Miller, A&M: this one is obvious. He leads the nation in sacks.
DE: Brandon Sharpe; TT: another big achiever in the pass rush, fair choice.
DE: Jared Crick Nebraska: at this point it’s clear that they chose the ends with the 3 highest sack totals. Also, it’s unclear how this defense will perform with 3 quick-ends and 5 total defensive lineman. This will be a reoccurring theme.
DT: Ndamukong Suh: He is really good.
DT: Gerald McCoy: the tricky thing is, you can’t really point to any stats that would suggest either McCoy or Suh have been more dominant than Texas’ Lamarr Houston. They are ahead of him here because they were ahead in the preseason.

LB: Sean Witherspoon, Missouri: a lot of all-around hype for this guy.
LB: Jessie Smith Iowa St.: we can’t offend Iowa St. by not including one of their fine athletes somewhere right? Might as well do it at the expense of a Longhorn like Roddrick Muckelroy who has terrorized the league for 2 years at a level beyond anything Smith could dream of.
LB: Travis Lewis, OU There is nothing in the numbers that suggests that Lewis is better than Muckelroy either.

Here the list just names DBs but I’m going to list their exact position to further demonstrate the absurdity:

Corner: Perrish Cox, OSU: He’s a standout to be sure. Aaron Williams is a better player who was injured too often. I might take Curtis Brown here as well.
Corner: Dominique Franks, OU: Another worthy enough pick. The trend here, however, tends to reward the Sooner Defense over the even more dominant Texas one.
Coner: Prince Amakamara, Nebraska: This is our 3rd corner I notice. I suppose that actually makes sense in this league but it should be at the expense of a defensive end AND a linebacker.

Safety: Larry Asante, Nebraska: Anytime a safety makes 2 interceptions and breaks up 7 passes in a pass-heavy league you adorn him with praise.
Safety: Earl Thomas, Texas: Arguably the best player in the league, somehow not a unanimous 1st team selection.

1st Team Offense:

QB: Colt McCoy: they managed to avoid blowing this, surprisingly.
RB: Daniel Thomas, Kansas St.: The Kansas St. running game gets a lot of attention in this list. I think everyone is afraid of Coach Snyder.
RB: Keith Toston, OSU: He’s really not that great of a runner. He benefitted from getting the majority of the carries in the Oklahoma St. running system.
FB: Bryant Ward: OSU: it’s required to pick a fullback to honor so they simply choose the one on the best running team. I think OU might actually have an argument here but who cares about this position anyways.
TE: Jeron Mastrud, Kansas St. Mastrud terrorized defenses to the tune of 21 catches for 233 yards and a devastating Touchdown. When not horrifying defenses with the threat of a 3 yard release pattern, he plowed ahead for Daniel Thomas en route to 1200 yards over the worst competition college football has to offer. He’s a no brainer here.
WR: Jordan Shipley, Tx: duh. Thank you.
WR: Danario Alexander, Missouri: Pretty explosive player, 1600 yards on the year.
WR: Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas: Solid overall list at WR. You could make a case for OU’s Ryan Broyles but I sure won’t. It’s not hard to pick 3 dominant WR in this league.

Now the OL:
LT: Nick Stringer, Kansas St: Had as much to do with Thomas’ amazing success running the ball as just about anyone else on the line.
LT: Trent Williams, OU: Was not completely embarrassed by the Texas pass-rush.
LT: Russel Okung, OSU: Best LT in the conference, possible top 10 draft pick.
LT: Nate Solder, Colorado: I have trouble seeing the logic here given Colorado’s terrible pass protection.
RG: Brandon Carter, Texas Tech: Great run blocker, good pass-protector for an interior lineman. I hope he knows how to snap the ball…

KR/PR: Brandon Banks, Kansas st: He’s an awesome kick returner, with 4 TDs. Not so great a punt returner. Shipley should go here if they didn’t want to avoid rewarding the same guy twice.

At this point all I can do is attempt to form my own list. I don’t have the benefit of having seen all these teams play very much, only my own few perceptions and the use of stats which alone may ascend my list above this crappy one.
Additionally, I’m going to create a real Big 12 offense and defense. And it will be schematically coherent.

Ian’s All Big 12 Offense:

QB: Colt McCoy, Texas: I’m choosing Colt because he’s the best quarterback in the country. He can run well enough to operate some option-read and he’s the best short-intermediate passer Texas has ever had.

RB: Daniel Thomas, Kansas st: As much as I’ve mocked Kansas St. he was the most accomplished runner this year and is used to the shotgun formations this offense would run. I would rather choose a back with explosiveness in the receiving game but Batch from Tech and Murray from OU put up inconsistent seasons.

FB: There is no fullback.

TE: Riar Greer, Colorado: No one really utilized a Tight end very well in this conference but Greer is one of the better receiving threats and a solid check down for McCoy.

Sub B receiver: Jordan Shipley, Texas: He’s going in the slot where he can punish everyone.

Flanker, Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas: Another phenomenal midfield weapon.

Split End: Danario Alexander, Missouri: I would love to just put Malcolm Wiliams here and moved Alexander to flanker and could have justified it had Williams not had to split time with John Chiles. Alexander with his 6-5 frame will go very nicely here though.

LT: Adam Ulatoski, Texas: He was entrusted with handling Von Miller alone against A&M. He’s not as good as Okung, but I like Ulatoski here with potential help from Greer and Okung plowing the road on the right.
LG: Andrew Lewis, Oklahoma St: Part of the Oklahoma St. machine who is mobile enough in the zone-blocking game and good in pass protection.
C: JD Walton, Baylor: Best center in the conference that I’m aware of.
RG: Brandon Carter, Texas Tech: He’s adept at pass-protection, which is what this offense will be all about, and a punishing run-blocker.
RT: Russel Okung, Oklahoma St.: As great a Left tackle as he is, his value in the run game makes him a better fit here.

Here we have a coherent Offense that utilizes the conference’s best talent and features a line that can handle zone-blocking and the pass-protection necessary to keep McCoy upright.

Ian’s All-Big 12 defense

This defense will be designed to handle the typical Big 12 offenses and have a 4-2-5 under alignment.

End/Linebacker: Von Miller, Texas A&M: He’s lightning quick and has 17 sacks on the year. If left single-blocked he will wreck opposing passing games.
Nose-Tackle: Ndamukong Suh. He can provide a great interior pass-rush with 6.5 sacks and the ability to handle the double teams that come here. Another perk, when the double team keeps him off the QB (besides freeing up Miller) is his 10 pass break-ups at the line.

3-tech/quick tackle: Lamarr Houston, Texas: I will justify Houston over McCoy with the following numbers. Houston had more tackles, 50-31, more sacks 7-5, more quarterback hurries, 26-9, and more tackles for loss 20-14.5. Houston is a more disruptive option and lived in the opponents backfield.

Power-end: Sergio Kindle, Texas. Sergio split time as the linebacker on this side and as a defensive end at Miller’s position. His sack numbers were down on the year but his season was phenomenal. 28 quarterback hurries, 17 tackles for loss and 56 tackles overall make him the best option at this spot.

We are only taking 2 linebackers here, a Middle Linebacker and a Weakside linebacker. MLB needs to be able to handle the inside running game and intermediate coverage responsibilities. Weakside LB needs to be a fast, tackling machine who can strip the ball.

Middle Linebacker: Joe Pawelek, Baylor: Interceptions were down from last year to only one and his 4 tackles for loss weren’t stunning but overall this is one of the most well rounded players in the conference and his 109 tackles overall speak to his ability to find the football.

Weakside Linebacker, Roddrick Muckelroy, Texas: It’s time Muck got his due. I like Emmanuel Acho for the future because of his ball-stripping abilities but Muck’s 10 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 87 total tackles demonstrate how much of a speed demon he is for the Texas defense. Additionally, he did this from middle linebacker after Jared Norton was injured.

Corner: Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State: He had 4 interceptions on the season along with 15 pass break-ups.

Corner: Curtis Brown, Texas: Only 1 interception on the season for Curtis but it was one that few could make. His 14 pass break-ups are a good indicator of his athletic ability and its usefulness in finding the ball at its highest point in coverage. His 50 tackles and forced fumble also demonstrate his physical play.

Nickel: Prince Amukamara, Nebraska: He’s solid as a physical option inside against the run with 50 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble on the year. Against the dangerous slot receivers in the Big 12 he should be fine having picked off 3 passes this year and broken up 10 more. Aaron Williams might be more talented but Amukamara’s production earns him this spot.

Strong Safety: Earl Thomas, Texas: He’s going to hang near the line in Cover-1 robber at times where he can pattern read and jump routes. With 8 interceptions on the year he is a weapon to disrupt any and all passing routes made by the opposing team.
Free Safety: Quinton Carter, Oklahoma: Carter is a Cover-2 safety who can crash down on plays in front of him with speed. On my defense he’ll be way back as a free safety where his 3 interceptions and 5 pass break-ups suggest he is a more than adequate centerfield playing behind Amukamara, Brown, Cox and Thomas. He had 80 tackles on the year and 2.5 for loss so he has the ability to attack plays closer to the line as necessary.

All that said, clearly I believe that Texas has the best defense in the Big 12 and should have been rewarded as such in the all-conference teams.

Fourth and 2? how the Patriots really lost

2009-11-16T14:28:00.000-08:00

It seems often that the NFL is a place where common sense is most easily applied in a manner that contradicts the opinion of punditry or coaching. Last night I watched the Patriots blow a 13 point lead in the 4rth quarter to Manning in the Colts and could scarcely believe what I had witnessed.

Some overall impressions I had of the game were that,
A). The Patriots O-line is still one of the best in the NFL. They get out on screen passes and make blocks downfield until the whistle stops. Kazcur had big problems with Mathis but the backup LT Vullmer was able to handle Dwight Freeney one-on-one and that’s a huge accomplishment. The Colt’s pass rush was really quite inadequate for dealing with the Pats pass-offense.

B). The only real running game for the Pats is the draw game. When they want to line up and just run the ball they are less effective. Running the ball is a major threat from the Patriots in instances and formations where the short pass to welker, or the deep pass to Moss are also likely.

C). What Manning is doing with these corp of receivers is very impressive. To me it is reminiscent of the Patriots offense pre-Moss although Manning still has Reggie Wayne.

D). Both teams lack lock-down corners and were dependent on 2 deep safeties to reliably contain Moss and Reggie Wayne from simply torching them. As it was, both receivers were still devastating.

Ultimately I thought the Patriots clock management and offensive playcalls in the 4rth quarter were poor and the reason for their shocking defeat. The Pats ran the ball, in a few short drives, 6 times for a total of 3 yards. No run went for more than 2 yards. To successfully run out the clock while holding a lead a team needs to actually sustain a drive.

It is a frustrating misconception, that you must run the ball while ahead, to win. Running out the clock is extremely valuable and running plays are the easiest way to do that. However, sustained drives regardless of whether they result in points are most important. What’s better? Driving 60 yards and kick a field goal while passing and stopping the clock some or to drive 20 yards with an ineffectual running game before punting? Which is more likely to burn clock? Which would have helped the Patriots more?

Ultimately you would prefer to be able to line up in the I-formation and run the ball effectively in the 4rth quarter on a drained defense. But if you can’t do so, and you’re facing Peyton Manning, it’s much smarter to keep your foot on the throat and keep scoring. It’s more risky to punt often and not score than to keep pushing the pace and piling up points while risking stopping the clock or turnovers.

In addition to playing too conservative on offense in the 4rth quarter, the Patriots managed to squander all their timeouts in the 2nd half well before the 2 minute mark. The opportunity to challenge the 4rth and 2 spot by the officials should have been automatic. It was a very close call, I personally think that it was a first down. If the Patriots had challenged it perhaps it’s most likely that there would have been insufficient evidence to overturn the spot and award a first down but the Patriots should have at least given themselves the chance to make a challenge.

What’s been most frustrating to me from this game, in addition to having watched the Patriots lose a game late in the 4rth quarter to an undefeated rival, has been hearing the analysis across the country condemning Belichek for his decision to go for it on 4rth down. Smartfootball.com did some quick math that concluded that the odds dictate a 4rth down attempt because the probability of conversion is high and the odds of stopping Manning weren’t great. He had 2 timeouts, 2 minutes and an exhausted defense to work against which he had been steadily picking apart throughout the quarter.

The odds of winning include the odds of converting the 4rth down in addition to the odds of preventing a touchdown from the 30 yard line. Together those make a compelling case. The opposite is the odds of stopping Manning and the punt return from scoring a TD in 2 minutes with 2 timeouts.

Is it a gutsy call? Only in the sense that failure draws greater criticism, mathematically the real risk was to punt the ball. Colin Cowherd, sometimes buffoon, argued today on the radio that it was somehow less respectful of Manning’s prowess to go for it on 4rth down? Really? The option that goes to greater lengths to prevent Manning from touching the ball is riskier?

Certainly the game came down to the 4rth quarter drive, however the circumstances that lead to that play had a much greater impact on the outcome of the game. The Patriots inability to run the ball in traditional sets in obvious running situations mixed with a failure to adjust playcalling to address that shortcoming allowed the Colts opportunities to get back in the game.

The 4rth quarter call is only criticized because it failed, much like the USC call on 4rth and 2 vs. Vince Young that would have been the Trojan’s best chance at stopping number 10 from taking the crystal ball.

How Texas can win: Scoring points

2009-10-14T15:57:00.000-07:00

Sadly teams have found a smarter way to defend Colt and the Texas offense this season. Texas A&M figured it out in 2006 when they intercepted barely-healthy McCoy 3 times before knocking him out of the game. It took 2 years until last year’s Tech game for the rest of the nation to catch on. Basically, the standard defense Texas faces now looks like this:

The linebackers are often 5 yards off the line of scrimmage and the corners play very soft on the outside receivers. They keep the Texas receivers in front of them and force Colt to complete dink and dunk passes for 70 yard drives in order to score and wait for the inevitable failed running play or incomplete pass to kill the drive. If the offense is particularly predictable the defense has time to react…good thing that’s not an issue with Texas…

Normally, you would simply run against a 6 man front with the linebackers playing so far off the ball and be very satisfied to move the ball 5-6 yards at a time and see if you can catch a few big plays from play-action if the defense gets tired of watching you execute short passes and running plays. Texas tried this very strategy against Colorado, running the ball and attempting to work the play-action game. Unfortunately, this same prevent-style defense sets up linebackers very well against the Texas running game.

All the outside-zone runs, counters and traps that Texas ran against Colorado are slow-developing and very easy to pick up on. With a few play-action exceptions, if you see a Texas guard moving in a direction, you can count on the ball going there as well. With the linebackers sitting further back, the Texas linemen have a longer way to go to reach them on blocks. If the opponents are at all familiar with our simple running game it’s not hard to fly downhill and blow up the attempted run.

Will Oklahoma employ this strategy of playing off Texas? It’s hard to say because Stoops and Venables have so much pride that forces them to play 3 linebackers in virtually all scenarios still while also attempting to defend the entire field. However, besides tighter coverage on the outside receivers you can probably count on OU playing a little zone and aggressively coming down on our plays as soon as they read them out just like every year.

I hope this paints a fairly bleak picture of Texas’ offensive chances against OU because on the surface that’s exactly what it is. A struggling offense vs. a defense primed to take advantage.

In the big scheme of things, OU’s defense was schematically ahead of Texas’ offense until 2005 when Vince could pass or throw and no defense stood a chance. After overcoming the hump of actually scoring more than 20 points against Stoops, Greg Davis finally figured out how to attack him. In 2007 Texas played one of it’s finest offensive games under Mack Brown in the series and lost as a result of dumb 4rth quarter defense and 2 costly turnovers (one of which cost a touchdown and momentum).

In that game Jermichael Finley had 4 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown. Young Blaine Irby also had a 26 yard catch. Boom, suddenly Greg Davis knew what to do. Before the 2008 game Blaine Irby blew out his knee and Davis inserted Shipley into the new Flex tight end position in a 4-Wide Receiver offense and this resulted in 11 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Mack Brown pointed out this week that Davis gets criticized for the running game while avoiding praise for his brilliant passing game. True enough, he doesn’t get a lot of credit for an excellent college passing game, although you would like to see more than 50% comprehension of the various possibilities presented by offensive football. In 2007 he unveiled a good counter and running back draw for Jamaal Charles that resulted in 79 yards on 17 carries before a costly Charles fumble moved Davis to abandon the running game and any chance of winning.

Furthermore, we never really saw the running back draw again, despite it being the obvious staple of a pass-first offense such as Texas employs. Last year Texas found success in the running game by virtue of the OU defense simply wearing down to the point of being unable to fight off pulling guards and catch Chris Ogbonnaya. That was surprising then but not totally unlikely for this year.

This particular incarnation of OU’s defense was expected to be the greatest since perhaps the 2000 championship unit. Fortunately, I can say with confidence that it is definitively not. We’ll go over matchups later but overall the team has the same basic strengths and weakness as it does every year. They are vulnerable to misdirection, because of their aggression, and passes against the middle of the field.

This year Texas has one of its best weapons to date for attacking the middle in Dan Buckner. As excellent a receiver as Jordan Shipley is, perhaps the best to ever even play at Texas, playing flex tight end is not maximizing his potential. Dan Buckner has more of the size and strength to play over the middle and be a large target for Colt to find.

Given a decent amount of time in the pocket there should be plenty of options for Colt to hit. OU’s defensive line is strong and Jeremy Beals is an excellent pass-rusher but Venables typically insists on calling zone blitzes that Colt will read and exploit when they choose to use them. The real question is whether or not Texas can run the ball sufficiently to win.

There are a few reasons why I am optimistic that Texas will find a way to do so. Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are both injured and there is consequently no temptation for Texas to try and employ them against the OU defense. This might be a good thing given their skill sets and what Texas needs in this game. Additionally, the mythical Fozzy beast is rumored to be 100 percent for this game and is listed as co-starter with Cody Johnson. Fozzy has the skill set Texas should be looking for.

Miami found a way to run the ball on OU to the tune of 150 yards on 15 carries for Javarris James. My extensive film study (watching the game on DVR while drifting in and out of consciousness) revealed that OU’s front 7 is not actually as strong as was suspected in the preseason.

Ryan Reynolds is a perfect example of the typical weakness of an OU defense. When he correctly diagnoses the play, he flies downhill to the ball and blows things up. If you ask him to move laterally, confuse him and lure him into taking false steps, or ask him to cover a mobile receiver over the middle you set him up for failure. He has 2 surgically repaired knees and blew one of them in last year’s game.

Gerald McCoy, for all the talk, was taken out of the game against Miami by consistent double teams and the rest of that front 7 didn’t exploit the resulting freedom with any resounding success.

So, how can Texas run the ball successfully against OU? Why does it matter that Fozzy Bear will be getting the first chance to make something happen?

There are a few ways that I think are remotely likely to occur that might result in running game success that would put this game away. I’ve listed them in order of likelihood.

1). Exhaustion by the OU defense: Given a likely no-huddle pace combined with little chance for success by the OU offense this is the best bet.

2). Cutbacks by Fozzy: The best run against Colorado was the late touchdown run when, after the play was blown up again, Fozzy just reversed field and ran around the defense. While that might be a bit much to expect a few cutback runs could take Ryan Reynolds out of the picture and possibly result in some big runs.

3). The no-huddle under-center game: Texas runs the ball best from the no-huddle when teams get tired and linebackers are backpedaling against the pass. Against ULM Texas ran an excellent under-center no-huddle series and then mostly shelved it up until now. Breaking out the inside-zone (based on cutback runs) and then using play-action could get some big plays on the OU defense.

4). Wild Chiles: The Wild Horn formation, which I insist should be commonly known as “the wild Chiles” has many elements of misdirection and inventive play-calling that could really punish the OU defense. Sadly, Texas seems fairly inept in running it (why is there a QB draw in a package designed entirely around the run?).
It might prove useful, or likely it will be used a few times early, be enveloped in tacklers perhaps resulting in a turnover, and shelved for the entire 2nd half.

5). The Running back draw: Humor me. We haven’t seen it in a few years save for one attempt against Ohio St. on 3rd and long that was immediately destroyed. However, if it were pulled out again ala 2007 I believe Fozzy could find success. At least, if we have practiced it and can execute it on any level.

Now the crucial matchups:

Texas Offensive line vs. OU defensive line
Almost the exact same units faced off last season and Texas won the battle in the trenches. Gerald McCoy is a big mismatch for Chris Hall on the interior but Ulatoski and Hix should be able to keep Colt upright often enough against Beal and English on the edge. The real question is whether the line can get any push at any point in the running game against McCoy. Fortunately, they’ve had to hear that all week and Hall should be healthier while the injured Huey will be replaced by the strong David Snow inside. I’ll be shocked if Gerald McCoy isn’t double-teamed all day.

Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds and Keenan Clayton vs. Fozzy Whittaker/John Chiles

We’ve covered Fozzy vs. OU. If he gets 20 chances and any blocks I think he can break some big plays in the running and passing game. Meanwhile, Texas is building up a pretty strong screen game with the tunnel screen to the wide receiver and the bubble screen to Chiles. However, Travis Lewis is a quick-moving mauler and Reynolds will know the tendencies. They may be able to shut down these useful short-passing plays. The Wild Chiles should be breaking teams apart but given its lack of success against Colorado it’ll probably be eaten by this bunch.

Colt McCoy vs. OU safeties

The safeties are faster this year and also less experienced. I’m not giving anyone an edge on Colt. If he can get out on some unplanned runs, break containment and pick up a few first downs it could be game, set, match.

Jordan Shipley vs. the World

He’s the most underrated player in college football. Perhaps because he is white his speed and athleticism are undervalued while his amazing hands and routes are recognized but still underappreciated. Another 100 yard receiving game with a punt or kickoff TD would just about make him one of the most feared players in the history of the rivalry. I like his chances.

Indeed, the real hope is Special Teams, where Texas has become the most dominant unit in the country. DJ Monroe and Shipley on kickoffs, the punt-blocking game mixed with Shipley returning punts, and the rugby and distance punts combine to form a unit that will probably give Texas its best chance to score on OU.

I expect this to occur often enough to result in at least 28 points for Texas. I can’t see how OU keeps up with that kind of number so we could be looking at a dominating Texas win. We’ll see what kind of magic Bradford and Colt have going.

Vengeance belongs to Muschamp: defensing the Sooners

2009-10-13T18:33:00.001-07:00

Before the season began I was highly skeptical of this Oklahoma offense. Last year’s unit overwhelmed every team they faced except Texas and Florida who actually had the speed on the line and in the secondary to handle OU’s hurry-up juggernaut, then they struggled. Texas and Florida both did tremendous damage against the vaunted OU offensive line, limited or simply ruined the running game and pressured Bradford away from dominance.

In every other game that enormous and experienced line bullied the other teams into total submission to the will of the visored one. Then all but one of those lineman graduated or left along with the majority of the OU receiving corp.

Then Jermaine Gresham, one of 3 legitimate offensive weapons, went down for the season before it began. Then Sam Bradford went down for a few games. Then Ryan Broyles broke his scapula and if you think he can actually play Saturday then you’re Bob Stoops.

That leaves Oklahoma with Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray as possible heros against Texas on Saturday.

Before the season began the gameplan for Oklahoma was probably going to focus on double TE sets with lots of power-running against Texas’ new defensive tackles mixed with play-action passes to Gresham. This would protect Bradford and the line from the Texas pass-rush while exploiting the 2 places where OU might have advantages, 1). Gresham downfield (a mismatch for any college defense to handle) and 2). Running the ball with Murray and Chris Brown against the Texas tackles.

However, as the season has progressed, Oklahoma’s running game has been suspect and the threat from a TE or any downfield receiver is virtually non-existent with Broyles injured. As it now stands, there are no places on the field where Oklahoma has any kind of real matchup advantage against the Texas defense. In the few places where Texas is vulnerable or less than excellent Oklahoma is mediocre or poor.

Given that fact, the Sooner offense is left with the gameplan of throwing the ball over and over from spread sets in the hurry up offense while frequently mixing in running back draws to try and punish the Texas line for rushing upfield in their zeal to murder Bradford and after that is accomplished, Landry Jones. Bradford will have to be extremely accurate and healthy for the entire game in order for Oklahoma to score at all barring major defensive or special teams success.

On the other side Will Muschamp has a lot more to play with. Texas can rotate from a 3-4 to a 4-3, or a 3-3-5 to a 4-2-5 with the same 11 players and has done so all year. This will allow the Texas defense to mix up the Sooner offensive line’s blocking assignments despite the hurried pace by Oklahoma. The inexperienced Oklahoma line will have little time to organize which overwhelming Texas defender they are going to have to try and block on most snaps. Given also the lack of clear mismatches that favor the Sooners, Texas is very free to experiment schematically without being afraid of leaving players in dangerous positions.

The only truly dangerous position for Texas is if Bradford has a lot of time to throw. Therefore, stopping him is first priority. If OU shows some life in the running game, Texas can play some cover-1 and drop a safety down to help out. If Oklahoma’s running game is dead Texas can play some Cover-2 man under or Cover-1 or Cover-3 zone with heavy blitzing.

All of these are likely. Texas blitzed frequently against a Tech passing game that was much more dangerous than OU and isn’t afraid of leaving Aaron Williams or the Browns against whomever it is that plays receiver at OU this season. Overall, whatever OU shows early success with Texas can scheme against with greater resources.

Now let’s examine some of the crucial matchups in the game

Trent Williams vs. Sam Acho/Sergio Kindle

Trent Williams is regarded as an NFL level left-tackle with a lot of speed and pass-protection talent. I think he is vastly overrated and personally watched Sergio Kindle murder him last year with less refined moves than he is operating with this season. Meanwhile, Miami sacked Landry Jones 3 times, including one by Trent Williams’ assignment. If OU is dropping back to throw 40-50 times, which they probably must, I predict Sergio will cost Trent millions in the draft as Orakpo did Loadholt last season.

check out :43 to see Kindle after matching up on Trent in 2008.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOLNdu2LI9M&feature=player_embedded

Jarvis Jones vs. Sam Acho/Sergio Kindle

Texas moves the Predator around a lot and he may find himself up against OU’s Right tackle, Jarvis Jones, as well in this game. Sam Acho has 5 sacks thus far in the season and should be a major concern for Oklahoma. Sergio Kindle must be keeping Jones awake at night with fits of terror. Jarvis Jones is a terrible matchup for Kindle, Acho, Eddie Jones, or any of the other better pass-rushers at Texas. This is exhibit A in why it might be criminally irresponsible for Stoops to risk Bradford in this game.

OU receivers vs. Texas Secondary

The only place in the Texas secondary that is potentially vulnerable is Blake Gideon deep. He’s slow and doesn’t offer a ton of deep support. However, he is imminently competent and more than good enough to handle the deep passing threats from OU. Curtis Brown and Aaron Williams should be able to completely lock down their matchups in press-coverage.

DeMarco Murray/Chris Brown vs. Texas linebacker corp

This is the best linebacker Corp Texas has had in a long time. I don’t even know how long because it might have been before I was born that a better group roamed the field in burnt orange and white. OU is likely to use the RB draws that were successful against Miami along with their complement of great screens to try and utilize their only remaining weapons. Fortunately, Texas is proving itself to be one of the best defenses in the screen game in modern college football. Muckelroy is great at sniffing these out along with Houston and the Texas defensive ends. Count that as another OU strength negated by injury or Texas strength.

Sam Bradford vs. Earl Thomas

If Bradford is wise he will try and avoid little Earl when possible and increase the likelihood of a turnover free game from OU which is a necessity for a Sooner victory. Earl can end the game with a few route jumps or a pic-six. Last year one of his 2 interceptions made a big difference. This is tough to call but with the addition of a Texas pass-rush this looks like a likely Texas win.

At the end of the day I have trouble finding ways for Oklahoma to score that don’t result from fantastic field position granted by defense and special teams. I guess we’ll have to examine those to see how this will play out…

How about those Cowboys?

2009-10-05T19:24:00.000-07:00

It’s time to talk about your Dallas Cowboys. I say your because I gave up Dallas fandom after the last superbowl win (1995, incidentally, also the last Dallas playoff win unless I’m mistaken). I grew less enamored with pro football for a brief period but I stand by that choice one hundred percent. The hiring of Barry Switzer alone should have driven away all the cowboy fans, or at least warned them, if not the decade and a half of Jerry Jones incompetence that followed it. Now I find the Cowboys to be a hateable franchise with unlikable players and staff.

As it is, I can’t help but be fairly invested in the Cowboys for a few reasons. First is that they are the most prominent local pro team and consequently are on television every Sunday. Second is that I watch football frequently with my pal Nathan and he’s a Cowboys fan. I enjoy taking shots at Dallas and Tony Romo and casting aspersions on the quality of person who might root for the Cowboys but I feel the ‘boys are beginning to get a bum rep.

They are 2-2 with losses to undefeated Denver on the road and the powerful looking New York Giants. Both of these games were winnable and featured poor 2nd halves by Tony Romo. It’s partly because these games were close that Dallas is getting so much criticism. The perception is that they have as much talent as anyone and are blowing it with sloppy play. Tony Romo is being chided as someone who can’t win the big game and Roy Williams as a prima donna.

Both of those criticisms are actually pretty fair, I would admit, but there is a deeper issue with this team that comes back to the real reason for the Cowboys failure to win a superbowl in the salary cap era…Jerry Jones.

Jerry Jones is in love with a man named Jason Garrett. Jason Garrett is a young man who has been charged with coordinating the Dallas offensives in their contests this season. Unless I’m missing something, which is more than possible, Jason Garrett is the type of coach who has a system he wants to run and he’ll assemble his pieces into that puzzle however best they fit. Allow me to demonstrate using my common sense powers. To begin with, what weapons does Dallas have to work with on offense?

1). A big, powerful Offensive line: These guys are all large and a handful to deal with in the running game. Flozelle Adams comes and goes as a dominant pass-blocking left tackle and generally has some trouble with speed rushers but when it comes to moving forward this unit is good.

2). 2 upper-tier Tight ends: Martellus Bennet is a good run-blocker and very solid receiving option. Jason Whitten is a good blocker, excellent receiving option and one of the best all around Tight ends in the known football world.

3). A stable of very good Running backs: They have power runner Marion Barber, great all-around back Tashard Choice, and home-run hitter Felix Jones. That’s 3 guys who could start and be excellent in all phases of the game.

4). Tony Romo: Romo is great on the run as an improvisational guy and a very good talent overall. He could really burn teams in the right system.

Now, the weaknesses:

1). Pass protection from the O-line: They can actually be very solid and held back a Giants D-line that is excellent in getting after the quarterback. Frankly, this line isn’t very consistent. Flozelle Adams has had big trouble, as previously noted, with speed rushers. I think, given the opportunity to bang head every week, they might enjoy an identity as a bruising run-blocking team.

2). The Receivers: They lost TO, who was a very good receiver if nothing else. Now they have some mediocre possesion guys and a couple of downfield targets in Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. Neither of these are guys who you want to throw to 10-15 times per game. They are limited in functionality.

3). Tony Romo: Whatever he may or may not become, he is not currently a Manning/Brees/Brady type guy who you want to build your offense around. Or if he is, he needs better pass protection and receivers to work with.

Now, given all those pieces, what would be the ideal type of offense to run? Well, whatever that might be Garret has chosen to run a Steve-Spurrier style scheme built around Romo throwing the ball 30-40 times per game and a short game featuring misdirection with draws, counters and screens.

When Dallas runs the counter, draw or screen they have a lot of success. These are excellent plays in general that Dallas can execute very well, but given the team’s strengths to feature a pass-first offense that features the running game as a constraint option is frankly stupid. The screen, draw and, to a lesser extent, the counter are all plays that are designed to punish a team for selling out against what a team does best. What Dallas does best are these constraint plays, they are averaging 6 yards per rush right now. That number even includes rushes made by Tony Romo. Dallas ran the ball 7 times in the 2nd half against Denver despite holding a lead until the 4rth quarter. 7 times. Stupid.

Perhaps Tony Romo will always fail in big games and I was the first to decry his performance against the Giants and didn’t fail to notice him missing receivers against Denver. But Jason Garrett is not putting him in a position to be successful. There wouldn’t be anything wrong with his scheme if he was coordinating the New England Patriots but the Dallas Cowboys have very different personnel.

Given their strengths a much more obvious scheme would feature the same draws, counters and screens built around a power-running game with drive-blocking and play-action passes with Romo rolling out to find his tight ends or hitting Roy Williams or Patrick Crayton shooting downfield. This team is perfectly built for this traditional style offense. I love the spread and passing as much as anyone but this team has great talent that simply isn’t built for that style.

On defense they have a very solid squad that played well against Denver and the other games I’ve seen this season. There isn’t anything wrong here and Wade Phillips knows what he’s doing with these guys. If they can change their identity on offense (probably too late) and create a system that makes sense then maybe we can see Tony Romo become comfortable enough to overcome the hump. In the meantime, they are wasting talent. Of course, that’s just fine with me I hate them anyways.

The Tech game and thoughts on the team

2009-09-24T14:01:00.000-07:00

A lot of people are a little worried about the team, mostly because we have little else to do before Texas plays Oklahoma, and the alleged return of "2007" Colt. I’m not sure where 2007 Colt was hiding last season, I’m guessing in 2007, but I’m pretty sure he’s still there. His 2nd half highlights look as good as anything from last year while his first half struggles are troublesome but not shocking. Remember, we didn’t realize how good 2008 Colt was until the Oklahoma game. He hadn’t been tested and Texas had gotten off to some slow starts, most notably the UTEP game.
He’s missing Quan Cosby and Brandon Collins, 2 receivers whom he had developed a lot of timing with, and even offenses with returning starters take a little time to gel. I’ll be worried if we don’t break 50 over the next few games. In the meantime, I’m not.

Taylor Potts was not the player I expected. I had anticipated better throwing mechanics, less courage and less accuracy. Much has been made of his performance and resistance to blitzes. I was as shocked as anyone when he took Predator’s spear through the chest and continued to make sidearm throws in tight windows. However, in instances of actual pressure he was not excellent. Texas held Tech to 3 points in the first half getting pressure on Potts and ended late drives in the 4rth quarter with pressure. So, the man is not quite a legend yet. He played well after taking pressure but when the rush was approaching he was as poor as any hurried quarterback.

Overall I was impressed with the performances in the Tech game both by the pirates and the Longhorns. I’d like to do a unit summary of the team’s performance thus far in the season, and particularly in the Texas Tech game which I’ve now reviewed.

Offensive Line:
It all starts here on offense, and the play begins when Chris Hall snaps the ball. Rewatching the game, I found myself playing a game called “watch Chris” which I recommend as an enlightening experience. He is solid in pass protection, although he gives inside push to good tackles (like Colby Whitlock, or, gulp, Gerald McCoy). I’m assuming he has a very good grasp of the offensive protections and schemes and calls them well. Ultimately, however, he is a terrible run-blocker. He gets absolutely no push off the line, and in fact allows deep penetration up the middle which frequently kill running plays. He’s at his best in protection mode, sealing defenders away from the direction of the run rather than driving them away, or getting out in the screen game (he made an amazing block for Chiles on a screen in the first half). I can understand why he starts and he has some strengths which play to the strengths of our offense. But if you want to know why Texas has so many negative or no-yardage runs play a little “watch Chris”.

Texas will not move the ball on OU using the inside-zone (although it is much more effective in no-huddle as I predicted) because there will be no push against McCoy and co. in the middle. You may think Tre Newton is the answer, and personally I’m a fan, but Texas will have to rely on sweeps and counters to run on OU.

Charlie Tanner has received a lot of criticism as well but I just didn’t notice him much in this game. I believe he, like Hall, excels in understanding what the coaches want and playing to a couple of strengths that allows him to start despite big flaws. Ulatoski was overrated by preseason accolades and mention as a top 10 draft pick but he’s a championship caliber left tackle. Kyle Hix and Snow/Huey are the best we have.

Receivers:

I want to see Malcolm Williams involved more. He’s said to be inconsistent in practice but he’s clearly a guy that just needs to see some game success and he can take off. He has the talent to be the best in the league.
That said, John Chiles is a dangerous weapon and brings a lot when he’s on the field. First, there is the “Wildcat” package Texas can use him in without making a substitution, then there is his game changing speed and open field moves. As a recipient in the screen game he’s very valuable. Shipley is what we thought he was, Kirkendoll has been solid, Buckner is a rising star. It’s an excellent group.

Running backs:

Tre Newton is the best running back on the roster unless Fozzy can stay healthy and show something. His vision, developed from his time at Southlake Carrol and the spread offense at high school, sets him apart from the other backs. Cody Johnson is a great short-yardage runner. It’s nice to have an automatic first down/touchdown when necessary. Situational play can make this team a champion.

Defensive Line:

The line is better than anticipated. Lamarr Houston has been better than expected playing with a healthy ankle and full year from the position. Kheeston Randall is like a Blake Gideon at Nose Tackle. He can do all the necessary things, like taking on double teams without getting blown backwards, getting push up the middle in man on man, and so on. He’s not making a lot of plays but doing what Texas needs. Also, there isn’t much behind him.

Eddie Jones has been a very strong pass rusher, Sam Acho might become a star and the ends overall are amongst the best in the country. Sergio Kindle is one of the best defensive players in the nation. He is a certain top 10 draft pick. He can singlehandedly destroy a team and almost did so with the Taylor Potts sack. He bowled over lineman and went totally around veteran Marlon Winn. These were Tech lineman, bred and molded by Leach to stay in front of pass-rushers. Everything Leach does makes it easier for lineman but Kindle still dominated. The Potts fumble and Earl Thomas fumble were both directly caused by the Predator.

If it wasn’t enough that he’s an athlete way beyond the norm, Muschamp makes it easier for him by using the 3-3-5 and blitzing Kindle from all directions. If Texas doesn’t want to pit him against the other team’s left tackle they don’t have to do so, and the change can be made without substitution.

Linebackers:

Emmanuel Acho has stolen my heart. Between every game last season and this Blake Gideon has forced one turnover. The biggest leap to be made from good defense (2008) to elite defense (championship 09 defense) is forcing turnovers. Emmanuel Acho caused 2 fumbles against Tech in one half of football.

Acho and Keenan Robinson are spectacular linebackers of the variety that Texas needs in league games against spread passing teams. They blitz well, cover and tackle in space, and they force turnovers. I’m excited. Roddrick Muckleroy is actually one of the best linebackers in the Big 12.

Secondary:

While this has been a team strength it hasn’t been quite as elite as might have been excited by more hopeful prognosticators, like myself. I would rank the defensive backs as follows:

1). Earl Thomas
2). Aaron Williams
3). Curtis Brown
4). Chykie Brown
5). Blake Gideon

Teams are afraid to go anywhere near Earl when he’s playing back. He flies to the ball quickly and makes big hits. Aaron Williams is another playmaker and together with Earl is pushing this unit towards elite status. Curtis Brown is thrown to a lot (there isn’t much choice left) but it takes a good throw to beat him. He blankets outside receivers and isn’t a weakness but another cog that allows Texas to play coverages that free up the front 7 from responsibility other than murdering quarterbacks.

Shocking Brown has been a little disappointing this season allowing receivers to break free with good routes and moves. I’m not sure if his concentration has been down or what, but he’s been supplanted by Curtis and will have to earn his spot back. Blake Gideon is one of the most consistent players on the team, and it seems unfair to criticism him and not Kheeston Randall, but he’s the potential variable in the equation. Backup Christian Scott, if ever cleared academically, could be a player that gives Texas playmakers all over the coverage. Gideon is excellent at working very hard to be where he needs to be and making sure clean-up tackles on big plays but he can’t jump routes or react like Thomas does when the ball is in the air. Texas can dominate with Gideon, but Scott could make things really interesting.

Thus far then, we’re seeing a defense that might be Mack’s best and an offense likely to find it’s way into top form (with the addition of Newton and more stability from Colt). Don’t underestimate the effect of the no-huddle, when used more in league play, as well as Davis’ adjustments to all the soft coverages Texas is facing. So far, so good.

Flotsam and Jetsam

2009-09-06T15:06:00.000-07:00

Let me begin by giving kudos to the Oklahoma Sooners for wasting no time in giving due credit for last year’s offensive success to Duke Robinson, Phil Loadholt and Jon Cooper. It took an entire offseason and a devastating first loss but they finally publicly showed their support for the previous offensive line’s legacy by demonstrating utter futility in Dallas yesterday. It won’t be the first time they do that this season. Nothing says “thanks for all the good work guys” like 9 penalties and a devastating series of hits on the best pocket quarterback in the school’s history (unless you count Troy Aikman, who was benched because the team ran the wishbone).

That said, they run-blocked pretty well as DeMarco Murray had 58 yards on 10 carries. Of course, when you find yourself in a vicious low-scoring cockfight there is no place for running the ball. Especially when you have a terrible, inexperienced quarterback throwing to a new cast of receivers missing their best player (Jermaine Gresham). Good job, Big Game Bob.

Oklahoma St. looked pretty solid. They punked a poor Georgia offense and their offense looked about like it did last season, very good if not quite elite. Perrish Cox looks phenomenal and the D-line was better than adequate. They’re still giving up loads of points against the Big 12 offenses and perhaps will hold down OU’s weak looking squad prompting undue credit to the new DC and further trashing of Todd Beckman.

Of course, we must talk about the Horns as well. Let’s start with

1). Special Teams:
I think our special teams will be a big difference maker this season. Potentially a game changing play will be made on special teams in Stillwater or Dallas. The punting is good, and all our kickers are as good as you might expect from college players. The return game is looking very promising. Earl Thomas wasn’t the greatest punt returner but he’s merely a placeholder. Jordan Shipley will play there when it matters most. DJ Monroe is perhaps the fastest player on the team and his participation on kick returns is pretty exciting.

2). Offense:
McCoy was McCoy. He threw a terrible INT but it’s early in the year. He’s going to be the best quarterback in the country. He still has some happy feet in the pocket and drifts out when it isn’t necessary to do so but overall, he was excellent and spread the ball to a big cast of receivers.
Speaking of the receivers, they look phenomenal. When Texas used the 4-wide receiver set with Dan Buckner in the TE-Flex spot they were picking up huge chunks of yards over the middle of the field. Jordan Shipley was used in that role last year and took some heavy punishment while torching OU and the rest of the Big 12. That Buckner can already occupy that role so well will mean great things for the offense. Kirkendoll looked over the middle as well.
The outside is very interesting. We didn’t see much of Malcolm Williams, which would be a great disappointment if not for the reason. The reason is John Chiles. He’s cut the the 15 pounds he needlessly added to play QB and he looks good in the open field. He’s a fantastic weapon for teams to account for, and teams just don’t have the resources in the back 7 to account for Chiles on the edge while defending the middle and the lethal Jordan Shipley.
Jordan might be the most underrated WR in the country. He’s really, really good. I don’t know what else to tell you. He does everything that WR’s are supposed to do well. He’s not huge and tall, that’s his only weakness.

The Texas running game pleased me greatly yesterday, except the fumbles. Greg Davis wisely chose not to scrap our zone-running game as I predicted in this space earlier. Instead, he did exactly what I proposed and expected and employed the inside and outside zones from a no-huddle offense with Vondrell McGee and successfully moved the ball down the field. He made 2 other tweaks that also generated some real results.

They moved Colt under center in the traditional 11 personnel (1 TE, 1 RB) formation we usually run from the shotgun and employed the zone-runs and play-action. We’ll see more of this later in the year. It’ll be a nice way to punish the over-aggressive Sooners.
Finally, they played DJ Monroe at RB and ran the old counter we really haven’t seen since Jamaal Charles left. I suppose they feel that you need great speed to the outside to run if effectively. At any rate, Monroe was a monster on the outside zone and counter and should see a lot of action in that role.

Between the 4 and 5 wide offense, the no-huddle under-center offense, DJ Monroe and the unstoppable jumbo package Texas has too many strengths on offense for any team to be able to handle.

On defense we showed a few interesting traits. We gave up some big plays, but the fact is that Texas will do that all year. Muschamp is going to play aggressively against what teams are running and leave Corners in single coverage and attack upfield. Now, there will be better execution down the road and you’ll see this defense play better and tighter but still give up some big plays in the running game or passing game as the competition intensifies.

The secondary looked pretty solid, barring the one play where Chykie blew coverage one on one and gave up a 75 yard TD pass. Ben Wells made a huge hit late in the game, hopefully this will give him confidence along with Christian Scott’s possible absence this season due to academic issues.

The Linebackers looked like an elite unit such as Texas hasn’t had since I started watching them. Roddrick Muckelroy picked up where he left off. Norton (hopefully not seriously injured) was good and a great inside back in our new 3-3-5 look. E. Acho and Keenan Robinson are fast strikers who can play in space or inside as necessary. I like them all a great deal.

Defensive End seems to have been the underrated strength of the team. Sam Acho might be better than I even dared to hope. Texas played the option last night about as poorly as they did when A&M used it to pull that disgusting upset in 2006 with the exception of Acho. When they ran it at Sergio he ran straight at the quarterback hoping to deliver a killing shot and set them up for the pitch that yielded some good runs. Acho played contain on the pitch man, forced the quarterback to keep it and created a fumble. He plays smart but is very athletic and gets in the backfield. Kindle, while a little over-aggressive on the option, is going to be phenomenal this season. He’s relentless in his pressure and athletic enough to punish teams on every play because of his pursuit. He might end Sam Bradford’s life this season. Alex Okafor also looked very good, and more importantly, he looked great against the run. Coming into the season he was supposed to be another pass-rushing weapon to rotate in against the hapless Big 12 quarterbacks we face but he demonstrated the know-how to use his penetration and athleticism to blow up the LA Monroe running game.

Houston played well but it was hard to evaluate DT play from the upper deck where I sat. Texas used the 4-2-5 under front they used for much of last season and also mixed in a lot of 3-3-5. I intended to write about the 3-3-5 before the season started but didn’t fully grasp what we’re doing with it.

Last season the front looked like this:

This year as follows:

Last season, Muschamp used the first front to create one-on-one matchups that paid big dividends for the pass-rush. The ends line up against the guards (who aren’t typically selected for their ability to defend the quarterback from quick rushers) and avoid double teams. Kindle could rush from the same side as Orakpo and prevent the Left tackle from coming to double Orakpo. If a team asked a guard to help double team Roy Miller they then had to also ask a tackle to slide inside 2 or 3 yards in time to block Orakpo or Houston, which is a little more useful than asking me to suit up and block Orakpo or Houston.

This season the ends are in the more traditional 5-tech, meaning they are lined up over the tackles instead of the guards. I’m not clear on the reasoning for this change but evidently Muschamp is not as interested in creating matchups for Kheeston Randall or Ben Alexander as he was with Roy Miller and I sympathize. Instead the linebackers we’ll have to take on guards inside more often and the ends have more responsibility, perfectly acceptable terms since these are team strengths. We’ll see how this front develops over the course of the season and what advantages it lends to Muschamp’s squad. Overall, I feel great about the defense, despite the 20 points allowed. They are fast and aggressive and will certainly create some turnovers. It also warrants mentioning that despite allowing 20 points, the defense only gave up 298 yards for the game yesterday.

So far so good, bring on Wyoming…

Diverging philosophies: how Texas and OU dominate on defense in 2009

2009-08-27T11:22:00.000-07:00

In the most basic sense, Texas and OU are opposites on defense. Oklahoma prefers to play zone-defense, Texas likes to play man to man. Oklahoma uses a lot of catch-all coverages whereas Texas will substitute players and packages for different situations. That’s not an indictment of OU, who consistently produces top defenses, but merely a weak summary of the different philosophies. However, the goal is the same, to dominate the Big 12.

I expect this season to see a few defenses strike back against the offenses in the Big 12 as they realize the need to play more nickel formations and emphasize quarterback pressure. Additionally, both Texas and OU who are already ahead of the pack on defense thanks to better talent and coordination, have many great defensive players coming back this season. From Stoops and Venables I expect much of the same stuff they’ve run the last 10 years under Stoops. Texas now has the luxury of returning players in the secondary who are both talented AND have played in games before.

Oklahoma loves to attack on defense. There are famous (or infamous depending on which side of the Red River you fall) quotes from OU players discussing how they would call out the Texas play before the snap and know exactly where and how to stuff it. Schematically they prefer to play a lot of zone for this very reason. All 11 guys can watch the play, diagnose what’s going on and attack as a group. They are fairly varied in terms of coverages but in the current Big 12 against all the spread passing games they sit in Cover-2 and Cover-4 with lots of pattern-reading.

Cover-2 is a fairly well known coverage at this point. In zone it goes as follows:

Poor paint illustration aside, you might be able to see a weakness in the cover-2 zone. Namely, after a certain point, there are only 2 guys responsible for a lot of deep field. If a team sent 4 receivers straight down the field eventually they would run past all the zone defenders and the 2 safeties would be responsible for guarding 4 players. There are 2 means of avoiding this, first is pattern reading.

In pattern reading, the defenders start in their zones but will adjust based on what routes the receivers run. If the tight end and the receiver on the right side both go deep the linebacker will escort the tight end a ways or the safety will pick him up sooner depending on how the team runs it. Oklahoma does this frequently, and Texas does it as well.

The other means of avoiding the 4 vertical route dilemma is Cover-4. Now, some might remember that on facebook I habitually ripped into the Cover-4 when Texas ran it in 2006 and 2007. I despised the scheme and thought it had little to no value against the spread offense. As it turns out, it’s a terrific spread scheme if coached properly and with the right personnel. Whereas in the Cover-2 the safeties need to stay deep and the corners stay low to help with short routes and against the running game, in the cover-4 the safeties are freed up to be aggressive.

Here the corners are responsible for making sure someone doesn’t get behind them. However, they may also have safety help like in the cover-2. This can lead to a quarterback trying to throw into a cover-2 weak spot only to see the safety and corner converge on the ball. Because there are 4 potential deep defenders in the cover-4 the safeties have the freedom to be very aggressive. A defense can have a 9 man front against the running game without sacrificing deep passes. Of course, this coverage is susceptible to play-action and trick plays. Remember all the times that Texas got burned by trick plays in 2006-2007? Yeah. Additionally, Cover-4 asks the linebackers to cover the flats. If the corners drift deep while following the receivers on the ends, the linebackers are responsible for guarding the areas occupied by cornerbacks in the cover-2. If you have Robert Killebrew and Scott Derry back there…well. It’s a long way for a linebacker to travel in a short period of time.

Oklahoma has used a lot of cover-4 over the last 10 years and it’s an optimal scheme for their philosophy. They coach up their players on the tendencies and playbooks of the opposing team, they diagnose what’s happening on the field, and then the players (and safeties in particular) are in a great position to attack what’s coming before the offense can materialize. Their linebackers and safeties are generally very good and the way they teach zone-defense and aggressiveness has a lot to do with that. They have a physical mentality to brutalize teams and intimidate.

On the lines we see some convergence between the teams. Both Stoops and Muschamp prefer to generate pressure on the quarterback with only 4 rushers. The sooners employed stand-up pass rushers before Texas started really utilizing Brian Orakpo and Sergio Kindle in this manner on a regular basis. Both coaches also like explosive defensive tackles like Lamarr Houston or the dreaded Tommie Harris (now on the bears) who blew up plays for negative yards. This year Texas has some of that speed, particularly at end. OU has ideal players all over the line.

In the back 7 both teams want turnovers and don’t prefer “bend don’t break” defensive styles, but Texas pursues this in a different manner.

Last year Texas played mostly in cover-2 man under. The difference between that and the above diagrammed Cover-2 is that only the safeties are in zone-coverage. They split the deep field in half and wait to pounce. The rest of the team is in man-coverage with whomever they are lined up against. Texas would use extensive pattern reading here as well which eventually results in man-coverage. The difference though, is that when you see a Texas cornerback isolated on a receiver he’s generally not looking back at the quarterback so often. This season Texas will likely have the best man-coverage cornerback group in the country. Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown can be trusted one on one with most receivers in the country. Given the strength of the Texas secondary and the concern with the defensive line’s ability to stop the run (along with Muschamp’s history and what I’ve seen in practice) I foresee a lot of cover-1 robber this season from Texas.

Given the desire by both OU and Texas to play physical defense that challenges and creates turnovers, there will always be a premium on putting playmakers in favorable positions. Let’s take a quick stock of Texas’ strengths and weaknesses and assume that Muschamp will employ the resources in the most efficient manner for stopping offenses and attacking the ball.

Strengths: 1). Great man-coverage corners.
2). Earl Thomas, a ball-hawk and tackling machine
3). Fast, aggressive linebackers (really speed everywhere is a team strength)
4). Speed pass rushers
5). Secondary depth

Weakness: 1). No line-consuming bulk at the tackle position.
2). Poor skill/technique against power running plays
3). Coming off a year of forcing few turnovers.

Now let me explain how Cover-1 robber addresses these issues:

Whoever ends up starting opposite Earl Thomas will take on deep coverage responsibilities alone. One safety provides deep help for everyone. Earl Thomas becomes the “robber” and drops down to the middle of the field and reads the quarterback’s eyes. Then he attacks where the ball is thrown. I’ve seen him used this way and pick off Colt in scrimmage or practice a couple of times already. I’ve no idea what he’ll do this season against mortal quarterbacks but it may be legendary.

In addition to putting Earl close to the action where he can disrupt and take as he pleases, you’ve also given your defense better numbers against the run. You can line up Aaron Williams against the slot receiver and have a big physical corner close the action on running plays. Every running play in his direction will rely either on that receiver blocking him (unlikely) or he will have to be accounted for by a lineman freeing up other players. Earl can drop down on the other side and serves as an undersized linebacker. Thus, you can have a 7 or 8 man front and outnumber the offense on running plays while still using 5 defensive backs and not asking a linebacker to cover a Jordan Shipley.

Additionally, you can redraw the coverage to feature Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown on the outside receivers, Blake Gideon deep, Earl as the robber and Christian Scott as the slot defender. Or perhaps Earl as the slot defender and Scott as the robber, there are many possibilities afforded by the team’s depth and athletes.

Texas can now challenge everything an offense wants to do up and down the football field with tight coverage. They can apply constant pressure on the quarterback and running game due to the freedom from not dedicating 2 safeties to deep coverage every play. Now, they’ll get beat from time to time with running plays or a deep pass but the turnovers generated will more than cover for this.

Finally, it’s important to note that Texas will not have a catch-all scheme as promising as cover-1 robber may appear. Muschamp will do some 3-down lineman wizardry I don’t fully understand yet, cover-2 pattern reading, cover-2 man under, cover-3 (for blitzes), cover-1 with no robber (for more blitzes) and so on. Oklahoma will stick with their 4-3 front as much as possible and rely on aggressiveness and zone. The players are taught to deal with the various possibilities from a base set.

Muschamp simplifies by having multiple packages with simple responsibilities. Last year Kindle had no idea how to play defensive end and still hadn’t mastered linebacker, but Muschamp would draw up plans that would give him simple goals, like “go kill the quarterback”.

Two different means and primary coverages for basically the same goal:
Create a physical, intimidating defense that challenges everything with the intention of creating turnovers and shutting people down. You can probably count on both teams accomplishing this on a regular basis this year.

Big 12 South Preview: the long look up from College Station

2009-08-13T13:47:00.000-07:00

Alright, now we come to more familiar territory with the Big 12 South. Most likely no one will be surprised by my expectations for which team looks strongest, but what matters is that the reasoning is sound and compelling. Now that we’ve moved south I should have stronger and better opinions because I watch these teams consistently.

Alright let’s go ahead and begin:

6). Texas A&M

QB: 3
Jerrod Johnson is one of the better things going for A&M right now. He’s a solid passer and fairly mobile in the pocket. This will also be his 2nd year as a starter in the system with a returning group of receivers to hit. Typically the 2nd year is when a player makes the biggest leap.

Skill players: 3.5
So far, looking good at Texas A&M. They have 2 very talented receivers in backup QB Ryan Tannehil and Jeff Tuller. Cyrus Gray is a well regarded talent at RB and top Texas running back recruit Christine Michael. There’s talent now and a chance to be really good in the next few years.

Offensive line: 2
This is where everything begins to crumble for Texas A&M. Last season injuries devastated what was already a nearly bare cupboard for Coach Sherman. They had guards moving to tackle and people playing out of position. This season they’ve moved a defensive tackle to the offensive line and he’s been entrusted the left tackle position. There are no returning starters. 2 points might be a generous rating.

Defensive backs: 3
Jordan Pugh has been a solid player at A&M for a few years now and he leeds the group from free safety and is joined by a returning starter at strong safety. Another starting corner makes this a fairly passable secondary.

Defensive line/linebackers: 2
1 point comes from having Von Miller, a pass-rushing specialist who will play the Kindle-role of blitzing as a linebacker or from the weakside as a defensive end. He’s an explosive rusher but is currently listed at 6-3 215 pounds. At that size, going up against a 300+ pound left tackle is very tiresome. These are the weights of the rest of their line: 256, 265, 253. The aggies are going to get pushed around like the Jonas brothers at a Slipknot concert. The linebackers are all new and fast. They’re the right kind of players only with no experience.

Coach: 2.5
It’s hard to give Sherman much credit as a coach yet even though he was handed the baby in 2008. He had very little to work with and he produced as much. They had no coherent scheme (supposedly a West-Coast offense guy) and horrendous play all over the field. As an NFL offensive-line coach maybe when he has talent there he’ll start producing. In the meantime they’re getting stomped by Tech and left in the dust by Baylor.

Overall: 16
This is probably the worst team in the conference. After 2 obnoxious victories over Texas in 06 and 07 I will have no hesitation in enjoying all of their losses this season. That might be as many as 9.

Texas Tech:

QB: 3.5
I could go find a 20 year old throwing the ball at a nearby park, hand him over to Coach Leach, and eventually the kid would be throwing for 4,000 yards in this offense. As it is, they have another young talent in Taylor Potts who is supposed to have a stronger, better arm and was more highly considered as a recruit than previous Tech quarterbacks. I remember hearing the same thing about Graham Harrell though and he was only marginally better than any other Tech quarterback.

Skill players: 3.5
Detron Lewis is a legitimate receiver and you know the rest of them will flash some skill developed over endless practice repetitions. Baron Batch is a very good running back who might go for 1,000 yards as Leach starts to emphasize the running game more. This is a solid collection with some dangerous speed that might be deeper than last year’s group, but there isn’t any kind of game breaker like Crabtree.

Offensive line: 3.5
Uber-obnoxious Brandon Carter is back at left guard. Leach wanted to move him to left tackle but this didn’t turn out so well. Leach is beginning to find more talent at OL instead of huge, tall kids whom he can coach into an elite holding unit. Right Tackle Marlon Winn is the other returning starter while the rest are new. Carter and Winn should provide a strong run-blocking foundation with which to build on last season’s success. The rest will undoubtedly reach the normal Tech standards. They churn out respectable system players like a factory in Lubbock.

yeah, this guy is back...

Defensive backs 2.5
Last year Daniel Charbonnet and Darcel McBath contributed 12 interceptions from the safety spots. In comparison, last season Texas had 16 turnovers as an entire defense, including only 6 interceptions. Both of them are gone. Starting corner John Wall is back and a very solid coverage guy. The rest of the secondary is new and will be playing zone most of the season.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Brandon Williams and McKinner Dixon combined for 22 sacks. In order to play Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeil’s cover-2 Tech needs defensive ends who can quickly get to the quarterback. Not looking great on that front. The outside linebackers are both back and both slow. The middle is a great strength. Nosetackle Colby Whitlock would make this year’s Texas team impregnable while Brian Duncan is one of the better middle linebackers in the conference. In a pass-happy league, tech will be strongest against the run.

Coach: 4
McNeil did a good job last year taking what seemed to be a miscast selection of 2nd choices and forming them into a decent defensive unit. Mike Leach cranks out top producing offenses in his sleep. Until they have elite talent on either side of the ball it’s hard to know what Tech is capable of but last year was probably close to the ceiling with this staff, which is pretty high for a West Texas school in the middle of nowhere.

Overall: 20
This would be another typical 8-4 or 9-3 year for Tech if not for the rise of a few other programs in the south.

Baylor:
Yeah, I think they’re better than Tech this year.

QB: 4.5
Robert Griffin is a phenomenal athlete and an underrated passer. If he played for Urban Meyer’s Florida team instead of Tebow they would be building a temple to him across the SEC either in praise or in hopes of abating his wrath. In most other conferences he would be contending to be the best quarterback.

Skill: 3
Not quite the same amount of talent here but Coach Art Briles is quickly bringing in some speedy players to create havoc in the open field. As it is they have returning running back Jay Finley, and 3 returning starters at receiver including the dangerous Kendall Wright. These guys paired with Griffin can score some points in this league.

Offensive Line: 3
They lose no. 2 pick Jason Smith who is the only player last year to actually make Sergio Kindle look like a former linebacker with no prior experience on the defensive line. He did train his replacement, Danny Watkins, before he left. Watkins is a national-caliber athlete with very little football experience. His job will be simple, keep X away from Griffin. They do return a very good center in JD Walton and starting right guard James Barnard. Odds are good that this cast can play well enough to give Griffin time to lay waste.

Defensive backs: 3
Well regarded safety Jordan Lake is back. He’s a throwback to safeties of the past who needed to light up guys over the middle and make plays against the run. In the spread era he’s still excellent but not the type of prospect teams would be looking for first at free safety. He’s joined by a returning starter in Jeremy Williams so that gives the Bears a big advantage. Both corners are first year starters and keep the unit from reaching the conference elite.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3.5
Joe Pawelek is exactly the type of middle linebacker to have in the modern Big 12 and had 6 interceptions last year with 128 tackles. Both of his henchman in the linebacker corp are returning starters. The defensive line added mega-prospect 355 pound Phil Taylor who is somehow not classified as a nosetackle. Along with their returning nosetackle starter Try Bryant and backed up by Pawelek and Lake the interior of the Bears defensive is very strong. It’ll have to be hoped for, however, that so much strength in the middle frees up the ends because Baylor needs to pick up the pressure (21 sacks last season) to see this team be able to compete with OU or Texas.

Coach: 3.5
One thing we know Art Briles excels at is finding talent where other coaches don’t look. The previous head coach at Baylor told Robert Griffin he could “walk on”. Up until late in the process Griffin had very few scholarship offers. He’s shown a lot of skill in building offenses around his team’s strengths at Baylor and at Houston. We’ll see if they can coordinate a good defense with this group.

Overall: 20.5
A lot of people are predicting Baylor to be bowl eligible this year. I’ll go one higher, I think this team can win 7 or 8 games with a brutal schedule and defeat one of the better non-Texas or OU teams. A victory over A&M is just about assured. I guarantee A&M’s tiny line and green linebackers won’t be able to handle Griffin.

Oklahoma St.

Quarterback: 4
Zac Robinson is another guy that could be an absolute star at Florida. In fact, he’s a star at Oklahoma St, which also runs a very strong and balanced spread offense. He’s become very dangerous in their passing game and is a threat on the ground as well, which really clamps down on what a defense can do to stop them.

Skill players: 4
They lost perhaps the best tight end in the conference in Brandon Pettigrew and the receivers not named Dez Bryant are lesser players. However, they still have Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant and each are perhaps the best in the conference at their respective positions (RB and WR) or close behind the leader. Dez Bryant demands a lot of attention and Hunter hit Texas for 8 yards per carry last season. Hunter’s backup Totson is another strong runner.

Offensive line: 4
This is a really good offense, and it’s paced by an excellent line. LT Russel Okung might be a top 10 draft pick next season and they return both their center and their Right tackle, so the foundation of the line is built on experienced guys who are also great players. The 2 new guards are inexperienced but talented.

Defensive backs: 2.5
Perrish Cox is the lone returning starter in the secondary (unless you count LB/SS hybrid Andre Sexton). Terrance Anderson is a senior with some experience but the rest of the new starters will be solid young guys learning the ropes.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Andre Sexton is the right man at the right time for OSU. He’s a fantastic LB/SS hybrid rover of the variety that you need in today’s big 12 to be successful. The rest of this bunch is more of a mystery. There is a chance for strength from ends Ugo Chinasa and Jeremiah Price and defensive tackle Derek Burton is a senior returning starter. All the linebackers are returning starters and solid players. The pass rush, however, was nonexistent last year and has a long way to reach adequacy.

Coach: 3.5
I saw a list that rated Mike Gundy as either last or 2nd to last amongst Big 12 coaches. We’ll put that as exhibit z in why many in the sports media don’t know anything about football. This staff covered a huge gap in talent and drew within 4 points of Texas in Austin 2 weeks after demolishing NFL-loaded Missouri as being a credible national team.

Overall: 21
As I wrote earlier, I don’t think this team is beating Texas or causing another crazy 3-way tie scenario in the Big 12 South. However, this is a loaded offense that has excellent talent and experience across the board.

Oklahoma: Of course they aren’t no. 1…

QB: 5
Sam Bradford is as good as they come. He throws very accurate deeper patterns and can absolutely murder a team when he has time to throw regardless of the quality of the secondary. He hits his receivers in stride and creates tons of yards after catch. We haven’t seen him lead OU down the stretch in a big 4rth quarter yet but I’m not sure the fault lies with him.

Skill Players: 4
Since that genius Jermaine Gresham decided to return with Sam Bradford to store up the undeniable value of an Oklahoma University Diploma there offense will be in better shape. He’s a tremendous player and punished the Florida defense better than anyone else in Crimson. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown are both returning 1,000 yard rushers, although we’ll see what happens when they aren’t running behind Cooper and Robinson. Ryan Broyles is a great receiver, the rest are solid new guys that Bradford will make look good but aren’t game breakers. They also have a very versatile Fullback named Matt Clapp that allows them to run a lot of different formations in no-huddle because he can line up as a fullback, receiver, halfback or even tight end. This is the type of player you find on championship teams.

Offensive Line: 3
This is going to be the best part about watching Oklahoma this season, at least from the perspective of a Texas fan. Last season the line mauled every opposing defensive-line save for Texas and Florida (and TCU to a lesser extent), both of whom gave them fits. This season they’ll have 1 returning starter, Trent Williams, who is moving from Right Tackle to left. Against anyone not named Sergio Kindle he may look alright but Orlando Pace he is not. The starting center is currently injured, along with his backup. It’s possible OU will have to use a converted tight end until they get healthy. If that’s the case for more than a few games this unit will drop from a 3 to a 2. You can’t replace your center with just anyone over 270 with a crimson shirt.

Defensive backs: 3.5
OU is getting a lot of national respect for their secondary but I’m not fully buying it. As slow as safeties Lendy Holmes and Nic Harris might have been, both of them knew the system. Nic Harris in particular was a very heady player who I think could make an NFL roster as an outside linebacker or safety in nickel or dime packages. He made big plays for them. Lendy Holmes had 5 interceptions. New starter Quinton Carter is a big hitter and both he and new SS Sam Proctor aren’t totally inexperienced but OU’s zone scheme calls for great safety play to be elite. Both starting Corners are back and both are very solid. Dominique Franks is considered All-Conference.

Defensive line/linebackers: 5
For this reason, OU might have their best defense since the 2000 championship team. Travis Lewis is an excellent Weakside linebacker and amassed 144 tackles last season. Lewis and Keenan Clayton are the type of linebackers all the other Big 12 schools are searching for. If Ryan Reynolds can stay healthy he’s a great Middle linebacker. If not, they’ve accumulated a ton of talent to replace him this time around.
The defensive-line will be close to as good as Texas’ last season. It starts with nosetackle Gerald McCoy, who is a top 10 pick, consumes 2 blockers per play, and collapses the pocket. DeMarcus Granger and Adrian Taylor make for a great 3 man rotation at tackle.
They have 3 ends better than anyone at Oklahoma St. with Beal, English and Frank Alexander. It’s an ideal unit, strong against the run, and great at pass-rushing with depth at every position.

Coach: 4.5
Kevin Wilson has designed a no-huddle offense at OU that was able to bulldoze over teams last season and scored 60 points 4 times in a row. It’s based in versatility and simplicity, which is what you want when you field elite talent. On defense, they’ve been doing the same thing for years, playing a highly aggressive Cover-4 zone that can demolish a team if they don’t have something up their sleeves. On the other hand, I would literally have to do a google search or think for about 2 minutes to remember the last bowl game this staff won.

Overall: 25
Very good everywhere, except on the offensive line. Sort of like last year’s Cowboys. Dallas will see some pretty poor line play in 2009.

Texas: We all knew this was coming.

QB: 5
Sam Bradford vs. Colt McCoy is about as meaningful an argument as Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. For years I took Brady because he does it in the clutch and with less talent. I take Colt for similar reasons, he’s lead a ton of comebacks, he wins big games, and he’s done it the last 2 years without a dominant vertical threat. Bradford, like Manning, probably also has it in him but hasn’t had the right circumstances. Ultimately, you’re better off than anyone else with either player. Anyways, Colt should win the Heisman this year with Bradford throwing behind tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum and Tebow, the most overrated player since Reggie Bush, playing without Percy Harvin.

Skill players: 3.5
Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t take any group of receivers over the Texas group. Malcolm Williams can be a game breaker, Jordan Shipley is phenomenal, Collins and Kirkendoll combined can equal Quan Cosby. However, as solid a stable of running backs as Texas has, there isn’t 1 guy that has emerged as a real force. Tight end is an even bigger concern, especially after the best looking player went down in the first open practice last night. If someone can emerge at Tight end as a decent vertical threat who can be any kind of “blocking surface”, as Greg Davis calls them, Texas will be okay. I’m still naming Vondrell McGee the favorite at running back with Fozzy a dark horse. Cody Johnson will still man short-yardage situations, a job for which he has no equal.

Offensive line: 4.5
All 5 starters are returning if you include Huey as a starter. Ulatoski is garnering attention as a top 10 pick next season at left tackle, although that seems a little far-fetched, and he and Chris Hall are consensus preseason all-conference guys in almost every magazine. Apparently these magazine writers don’t watch games because Chris Hall, while being a fantastic guy and extremely versatile player, hasn’t dominated anything yet. Right tackle Kyle Hix is a mauler and his partner Right guard Michael Huey make the right side a likely pathway for Texas’ attempts to run the ball. In pass protection this group may have no equal nationally so if they can start to move bodies in the running game it’s all over.

Defensive backs: 4.5
This should be the best secondary since the last championship. Earl Thomas is as good a safety as you will find in college football. Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown are both poised to break out as all-conference corners. Christian Scott is an incredible athlete who will certainly see the field while Blake Gideon has been strong enough not to give up his spot. There are 4 very good corners on this team with serious game experience and 3 safeties. It’s the best secondary in the conference by far and might be the best in the country.

Defensive line/linebackers: 4
This is similarly the best group of linebackers Texas has seen in a while. In fact, due to the dearth of quality here, this might be the best linebacker group Texas has seen in decades. Muckelroy is a tackling machine and Jared Norton could break out at middle linebacker. The backups Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho are both excellent athletes who can run, hit and blitz all of which modern linebackers need to do. Defensive end is a revolving door of talent. First there is the Predator, Sergio Kindle, who is a candidate for defensive player of the year and will move from various angles and positions to hunt quarterback. Alex Okafor is a freshman who looks like the next Brian Orakpo. Sam Acho, Eddie Jones, Okafor and some other ends will also plenty of action in the 3-3-5 alignment or the 4-2-5. Tackle is a concern. Lamarr Houston can be one of the better tackles in the conference but lining up next to him will be the weakness of the defense. Like at tight end, Texas just needs to find someone who can take on a few responsibilities and eat space and this defense can reach an elite status.

Coach: 4.5
Texas might have the best defensive coordinator in the country with headcoach-in-waiting Will Muschamp. Mack Brown should be above reproach at this point and Greg Davis has handled great scrutiny and criticism to produce an offense that could rival or even surpass the 2005 juggernaut. It’s a good staff.

Overall: 26
I think this is the best team in the country although Florida is a very worth pre-season no. 1 considering the return of their entire defensive 2-deep. There are no glaring weaknesses on this team that can’t be overcome with smart scheming and excellent play from other positions.

Let's take a look around

2009-08-10T12:08:00.000-07:00

The Big 12 is once again considered to be a pretty loaded conference this year, 2nd in most people’s minds only to the SEC. I actually think last year was probably the better year for offense, this year I suspect defense will make a comeback although we’ll still see plenty of teams hitting 40 points on a regular basis. Most teams have identified the need to field less than 3 linebackers on most plays and employ plenty of speed rushers to punish all the spread teams and their diminutive Texas quarterbacks.

I’ve developed a rankings system to judge the quality of teams based on what we can know in the preseason that I would like to share with all of you. I’ve rated all the teams on a scale from 1 to 5 with 5 diferent criteria.

First the quarterback, is he good? How much experience does he have? A second year quarterback will generally make a leap in improvement after a year at full speed and then an entire offseason of practicing with a better understanding of the game situation. Additionally it takes time to build chemistry with the receivers and assert himself as a leader on the team. So, I weighted experience here a lot combined with what I know of the players’ quality.

Skill players: This includes the running backs, tight ends and receivers. Mostly what I looked for here was game breakers and feature players. There’s a big difference between having start-able players at every position and having a Michael Crabtree or someone who people have to account for all the time.

The Offensive line, this is the 2nd of 3 areas where experience will be a large factor. Building chemistry between the lineman as well as adding the necessary technique and strength to be an effective lineman at this level takes time. Many of these guys are used to being one of the only players on the field with that kind of strength. It takes a while to adjust to lining up against an all-district athlete every snap.

Defensive backs; this is where experience counts again. Many teams just recruit highly athletic players and mold them into safeties and corners through strength and conditioning and endless practice repetitions in various coverages. Many of Texas’ greatest defensive backs in the last championship year took a few seasons of conditioning before they become the 4-headed terror we knew as the 2005 secondary. I’ve particularly weighted the rankings towards having experienced safeties. If these guys aren’t producing big plays for your team, you probably aren’t elite in this Big 12.

Linebackers/Defensive line: I’m looking for difference makers again, the linebacker who can create turnovers and make big hits or the defensive end that can chase the quarterback down and force the offense to drop part of the playbook. Defensive tackles are immensely important as well and overall quality is considered but the high rankings come from having difference makers.

Coaching: You can lump scheme, preparedness, special teams, intangibles and whatever else into this category. I’m less informed on many of these guys and so many of the teams have a pretty basic rating with a few standouts.

Let’s begin with the Big 12 North because it’s an interesting division and a little further from home,

Kansas St: I think this could very well be the worst team in the Big 12.

Quarterback: 2
They lost Josh Freeman to the NFL and his replacement doesn’t match the type of dual-threat option quarterback that Coach Snyder prefers for his offense. First year starter in a mismatched scheme will not amount to greatness.

Skill players: 2
They have Brandon Banks back, a 5’7” receiver who had 1000 yards last season. He returns along with some lesser receivers, a new quarterback and no running backs anyone will have heard of. So, the only proven talent will probably not be maximized.

Offensive line: 3
They return their left tackle and left guard, so they should have some solid protection. The other guys are young and fairly talented so you might expect Coach Snyder to form them into a fairly solid unit.

Defensive backs: 4
They return 2 safeties with starting experience and an extra defensive back in senior Courtney Herndon who will play the “Wildcat” or the nickel back. Additionally, they have one of the Big 12’s best corners in Joshua Moore. Lots of speed and experience back here.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
They are starting a walk-on at linebacker but they have a defensive end back with 10 sacks from a year ago in Brandon Harold. There is a chance for the defensive line to be very solid but the linebackers aren’t looking so great.

Coaching: 3
We’ll see if 120 year old Bill Snyder can return to his old ways of crafting a fundamentally solid team built for overachieving with the meager resources Kansas has to offer. If he can, they’ll have a big advantage in the North for the next few years. If not, at least they already named the stadium after him.

Overall Score: 17

Iowa St: 3.5

Quarterback: They’re returning a starting quarterback in Austen Arnaud who might be one of the better signal callers in the north this season. If they can keep him upright…

Skill Players: 2.5
Solid running back Alexander Robinson is back with several first year starter receivers. It’s hard to evaluate the skill players on a team with a terrible line but there aren’t any big game changers returning here.

Offensive line: 2.5
They have one returning starter from perhaps the worst line in the Big 12. One the one hand, all the terrible former starters are gone, on the other hand starting over will not yield immediate results.

Defensive backs: 2.5
This is where this team will really suffer. James Smith is the leading tackler from a year ago and provides one proven guy at safety. Everyone else is a first timer. A couple of talented guys are here, such as corner Leonard Johnson, but it’ll be a year before any of them are major contributors.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Lots of returning starters such as MLB Jesse Smith and lineman Nate Frere and Rashawn Parker means there will at least be some level of competence from the front 7 at Iowa State. Not enough game changing talent to cover a young secondary.

Overall: 17

Missouri:

QB: 3
They lost Chase Daniel, who quarterbacked them into prominence, however ultimately they are replacing a system quarterback with a more talented player. Blaine Gabbert won’t immediately match Daniel, but it shouldn’t be too hard for him to hold on to the reigns.

Skill players: 3
Jeremy Maclin is gone, so is Chase Coffman, both to the NFL. Running back Derrick Washington is still around though, and Missouri has recruited well here. The scheme and athletes they’ve accrued should measure up to a solid cast but nothing like last year.

Offensive line: 3.5
3 starters back from a unit that struggled last season including the left tackle and center, two of the more important positions on a zone-running team’s line. There should be improvement from the unit overall as they return a lot of experience.

Defensive backs: 2.5
Teams that lost a lot of secondary players will struggle in a league predicated on throwing the ball 40 times a game. Missouri returns 1 corner and lost Safety William Moore.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3.5
Most of this cast is fairly solid with one potential game changer in Brian Coulter, however they do return Sean Weatherspoon and he is perhaps the best linebacker in the big 12 and singlehandedly worth 1 whole rating point.

Coaching: 3
They lost their offensive coordinator but are keeping the same system and Head Coach in place. Also, he was the man who tried to incorporate Tech’s wide offensive line splits with a new line that resulted in Chase Daniel running around like Frodo Baggins in Shelob’s lair with Brian Orakpo after his soul.

Overall: 17.5
This is a rebuilding year for the defense, while the offense expects to reload. I’ll have to see it first.

Colorado

Quarterback: 2
Coach’s son Cody Hawkins has some starting experience but he also simply isn’t very good. I don’t think his ceiling is much higher than what we’ve seen.

Skill players: 2.5
I’m giving them an extra .5 in expectation that Darrel Scott might become the destroyer of worlds Longhorn fans envisioned before he spurned Texas for Colorado late in the recruiting game. If he does, maybe you could bump them up to a 3.

Offensive line: 3.5
One of the league’s best (if not the best) left tackles is back residing in the body of Nate Solder. The rest of the line is somewhat green but stocked with decent talent. The line is in place if young Mr. Hawkins or Mr. Scott want to do something about it.

Defensive backs: 3
Having only one returning starter (Cha’pelle Brown) is a big warning sign. However, he’s a very solid player and both safeties have seen some fairly extensive playing time for sophomores and have the physical talent to give a boost to a solid-looking defense.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3.5
Colorado lost Hypolite, a fantastic nose tackle, their leading rusher in Brad Jones (7 sacks) and another starting tackle. They are switching to the 3-4 behind an unproven line and return 2 linebackers. However, Colorado is all-world in churning out fantastic linebackers and there is a lot to build on here. I anticipate this defense being one of the better units in the league.

Coaching: 3.5
Hawkins has to prove himself in year 3 and he has some talent capable of doing it. Meanwhile, they have one of the best linebacker coaches in the country and a defense that can be counted on to play smart and aggressive every year.

Overall: 18.5
If Cody or Scott make the leap you’re looking at a Big 12 north contender. Otherwise they’re merely a bowl-eligible team.

Nebraska

Quarterback: 2.5
First year starter replacing Joe Ganz=trials and tribulations for the Cornhusker offense on 3rd down before they’ve probably marinated the new quarterback. On the plus side, Zac Lee (likely starter) won’t be featured and can run. The Huskers can hide him and still get some nice production when he bolts and runs.

Skill players: 3.5
They have a great running back in Roy Helu Jr. with a solid backup in Castille. Tight end McNeill will be one of the best in the conference and having a standout tight end lends itself well to a league where defenses are being built around speed. A great tight end can devastate a small defense with run-blocking and downfield receiving. The receivers aren’t much but again, that isn’t a feature in this offense.

Offensive line: 3.5
From the Center to the left tackle are returning starters and a fresh right side is composed of young talent. A big right side to run power plays to would be more optimal for this team but at least the young QB will be adequately protected. Nebraska lineman have become notorious for their, umm, conditioning and fantastic strength.

Defensive backs: 3.5
They return 3 safeties who started last season, including Larry Asante who was 2nd on the team in tackles. Having that kind of depth at safety could lend itself to the inevitable necessity of using a nickel back to cover multiple receiver sets. They also have starting corner Anthony West back who was a decent enough player last season.

Defensive line/linebackers: 4
If I could take any player from the Big 12 and put him on Texas I might take Ndamukong Suh, nosetackle, Nebraska. He led the team in tackles last season…as a nosetackle taking on 2 blockers all the time. He also led the team with 7.5 sacks and is a sure bet to be a top 10 or even top 5 pick in the next draft. He eviscerated Clemson in their bowl game. They also bring back talented end Barry Turner from a long injury and have great talent on the line along with some solid young linebackers with the necessary Big 12 speed.
Coaching: 3.5
Pellini took them from 5 wins to 9 in one year and is now in year of the implementation of his schemes. I anticipate Bo emerging as one of the top coaches in the league this year.

Overall: 20.5

Kansas:

Quarterback: 4
Todd Reesing is a very good quarterback, even standing no taller than me, and has proven himself in some big games already. This is year 3 for him starting and he has the best cast he’s had yet.

Skill players: 4
They have a deceptively good (i.e. white) running back in Jake Sharp and arguably the best receivers in the country with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe who both have a great rappaport with Reesing. Johnathan Wilson is another returning receiver as good as virtually any 3rd option in the country.

Offensive line: 3
An offenses ceiling is often set by the offensive line. This line only has to be so good for this team to reach a high ceiling. As it is, they return their center and right tackle and both are great players. The rest of the line is very green and will be tested early to provide the quality this offense needs to blow teams away.

Defensive backs: 3.5
Darrell Stuckey is one of the better safeties in the league and the team returns 4 other starters in the secondary which will be seeing 5 guys on the field in the base defense. Good overall experience aside, this isn’t a secondary stocked with the type of recruits Texas hauls in but there is some talent and speed.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Kansas had 3 excellent linebackers last season and they are all gone. None of the new starters stand out for what they’ve done or their recruitment. On the line, however, they return a solid pass rusher in Jake Laptad and a new end in Juco transfer Quintin Woods who was recruited to Michigan but didn’t qualify academically. Both tackles return and should provide a strong base to build from.

Coaching: 4.5
Mark Mangino took Kansas to a BCS bowl and won the game. That would be like if Baylor became bowl-eligible and starting routinely beating Texas A&M…What’s that? Really? Well, anyways, Mangino is amongst the elite coaches in the country and no one is doing more with less anywhere.

Overall: 21.5
This is your favorite to be the sacrificial lamb to Texas/OU in the Big 12 Championship.

We’ll visit the Big 12 South next and maybe project finishes and records based on the Big 12 scheduling slate. Any thoughts? I can’t claim to be an expert on all 12 teams, particularly these Northern ones.

That other game...

2009-08-03T12:28:00.000-07:00

Texas’ schedule for 2009 is something less than the gauntlet the team had to run in 2008 which featured four primetime games in four consecutive Saturdays. This season has two games in which you could foresee danger for the Longhorns. One is in Oklahoma and the other is in Dallas. The Red River game could feature the most intense buildup the game has had while Stoops and Brown have both been involved. It’ll be discussed in this space, I assure you, both for its historical importance as well as the actual strategy and outlook of the game. However, that other game, in Stillwater, deserves some attention as well.

The Assistant to the VP of common sense is blessed with a fantastic memory that recalls a few interesting details from the last matchup between Texas and Oklahoma St. First, it was a close 28-24 battle that came down to a last minute attempt by the Cowboys to win the game after the Longhorns foolishly went for a 4rth down touchdown instead of a field goal that would have protected the ‘Horns from a last second touchdown. Even more foolish was the play call, a play-action pass to the worst receiver on the team (the tight end) that resulted in Colt running for his life and flinging the ball to the back of the end zone. Before that feeble attempt there were a few other interesting features to the game.

Oklahoma St. ran the ball almost at will. The highly touted Texas run defense was gashed open for 229 yards, mostly by returning running back Kendall Hunter (18 carries for 161 yards, 8.9 yds. Per attempt).

OSU’s deadly WR Dez Bryant (along with the even more deadly Tim Crabtree the following week) was covered by which Texas Defensive back? 1). Ryan Palmer 2). Chykie Brown 3). Deon Beasley 4). Aaron Williams?
The answer? None of the above. Curtis Brown was given the assignment and is currently projected as the 3rd or 4rth corner on the 2009 team. Not to say that he isn’t a very talented player who might eventually break out into a superstar, but he wasn’t and still isn’t the best Longhorn to attempt to lock down a weapon like Bryant. Muschamp felt the need to keep both safeties back to prevent either Bryant, or the OSU TE Brandon Pettigrew, from punishing Texas down the field. This meant that Texas could only dedicate 6 defenders to stopping Hunter which was clearly problematic.

Late in the game Earl Thomas made a game saving play that killed an OSU drive that was almost in field goal range when he stripped the ball away from Hunter and Kindle landed on it. This was a game saving play on what otherwise would have been another long successful run by Hunter and likely an outcome changing score. Other interesting points from the game; Zac Robinson was sacked 5 times, Colt was sacked once, Brandon Pettigrew went to the NFL and is no longer a Cowboy.

Now, the major fear for the 2009 Texas Longhorns is the lack of a 2nd Defensive tackle. Texas simply isn’t used to not having several huge candidates to anchor the middle of the defense. Last year there was no one who could take on nose tackle duties if Roy Miller was injured, this year there is no one who can do it at all barring a remarkable jump from Ben Alexander or major contributions from a freshman. Teams that can run the ball effectively and with a power game have become an intimidating threat to Texas because of this factor and the only team on the schedule who fits that description is Oklahoma St.
That same team that has nearly beat Texas over and over again and has jumped out to big leads in games played in Stillwater.

Is anyone nervous yet? Well, as early as it is, I have several reasons for believing that Texas should be favored in this game and that Longhorn nation should put some of the concern to rest. Because:

1). We don’t lose this game: Mack Brown has never lost to Oklahoma St. and he’s had several good chances to do so. Texas has been down 35-7, 28-12, and 35-14 to OSU in the last few years and won all of those games.

2). OSU won’t burn Texas worse than 229 rushing yards: Texas is definitely weaker up front without Roy Miller. That man started every play in Texas’ favor by winning the battle up front in the middle. That said, the rest of the defensive line is still in great shape and the linebackers behind them will be better. Most importantly, with a veteran defensive backfield, guys like Chykie and A. Williams healthy, and no Brandon Pettigrew on the field Texas can bring 7 or 8 defenders into “the box” and crowd the line of scrimmage to compensate for having no Roy Miller. An 8 man front with this team’s speed should be more effective than last year’s defense with 6 guys and Roy Miller. Also, Texas already beat them while giving up over 200 yards rushing, surely Oklahoma St. won’t gash Texas worse than that…

3). Tim Beckman is gone: Tim Beckman was the defensive Coordinator at Oklahoma St. the last 2 seasons. Because he was replaced this season after taking the head coaching job at Toledo he is taking the blame for OSU’s defensive struggles last season with his “overcomplicated” schemes and plans. These are all lies and attempts by OSU and major media to sell OSU as a possible challenger to OU or Texas for conference supremacy. The new “Texas Tech” for 2009.

The truth is this; Tim Beckman has been involved in 3 games where Colt McCoy was seriously challenged by the defense and is largely responsible for OSU’s breakout win against Missouri last season. He was an assistant coach at Ohio St. when that team came into Austin and blew up the defending champions winning streak. The following year at Stillwater he watched his defense intercept Colt 3 times and almost win before collapsing late and utterly failing to catch Jamaal Charles.

Last season he drew up a defense that made every Texas drive as difficult as possible, forced Texas to convert long touchdown drives and ultimately, with a lot of help from the offense, held the ‘Horns to 28 points.

Beckman’s style is this, he loves to show a quarterback one defensive coverage and then have his players shift into a different one right before the snap to confuse the offense and prevent the quarterback from having a solid grasp on where he can throw the ball. The new coordinator, Bill Young, has been dominating at Miami the last few seasons and is coming home to his alma mater. He’s abandoning the late shifts and “confusing” schemes with straight forward gameplans and coverages that will simplify things and concentrate on execution, a terrible idea for the Cowboys.

Emphasizing simple concepts and better execution is what teams with talent, like Miami, do. Make things real simple for your athletes and let them get to work. Oklahoma doesn’t have those athletes on defense. This defensive line doesn’t have the talent to get to the quarterback with 4 guys, the backfield can’t show a simple coverage and out-execute guys like Sam Bradford, Todd Reesing, Robert Griffin or Colt McCoy. McCoy threw the ball 45 times last year and was only sacked once. Tech and OU had all the time in the world to throw. This year’s line won’t be significantly better. Bill Young is going to find out very quickly that coaching in the ACC against crappy offenses with premium Florida athletes is different than coaching in the Big 12 with 2nd or 3rd tier Texas and Oklahoma players. I’m calling BS on Oklahoma St. showing much improvement on defense this year whereas Texas can certainly be better on offense.

Granted, it’s only just now August and neither team has played a game yet, but if it’s at all safe to speculate about teams with a lot of returning players like Texas or Oklahoma State I believe the Auspices are good for another demoralizing defeat for the Cowboys at the hands of Mack Brown’s squad on Halloween night.

The Texas Running Game, here we go again

2009-07-26T09:23:00.000-07:00

Popular demand (1 person) has pushed me to follow up the last post and introduce my next subject with a couple of homemade diagrams illustrating exactly what I’m talking about. So we’ll start with some diagrams of the following 3 plays:

A quick key: O's=offense C: corner T: defensive tackle E: defensive end M: Middle linebacker W: weakside linebacker S: strongside linebacker FS: Free safety SS: strong safety N: Nickelback (an extra corner or safety)

First we have the Wildcat which came up in the post on how an NFL team should rebuild themselves. This is how the Arkansas Razorbacks originally ran the play with Darren McFadden (at QB) and Felix Jones as the green receiver. The key to the play is the E (defensive end)that is starred, he is unblocked. The green circle, here Felix Jones usually another RB or good running WR, runs past the quarterback (also played by a Running back). The QB puts the ball in his stomach and reads the unblocked end, if he stays in position the quarterback hands the ball off. He if follows the runner, the QB keeps it and runs around him.

Now the inside zone, Colt hands the ball off to the RB (whomever that ends up being) who picks a crease between the center and right tackle. The blocking technique is important here, the offensive lineman move in the direction of the play and double team the defensive lineman. The lineman to the left takes over the block while his teammate to the right advances to the next level and seals off a linebacker. None of the blocks have to be powerful, just the lineman getting to guys and holding them in place to open gaps.

The Zone-read, a mixture between the wildcat and the inside zone. Instead of handing the ball off to a sweeping WR like the wildcat, the quarterback uses the running back. The play runs like the wildcat with the quarterback choosing to keep it or hand it off based on what the starred end does.

Obviously all these plays are very similar, relying on leaving the backside end unblocked and either using the numerical advantage to the right or making him pay for crashing down on the play by going across him. It would seem that the wildcat and the zone-read are the 2 better plays because they have a built-in feature that punishes teams that pursue hard after the play. Either your running back or Vince Young will run around the defense to the left and leave Matt Leinart with a looser grip on reality.
Nevertheless, the primary running play for the Texas Longhorns is….the inside zone. And, you might be unsurprised after learning how these plays work that it has been less successful for us than the zone-read and less successful than is the wildcat for the teams that have employed it. However, the inside zone isn’t a faulty play, it is built on sound principles and when executed properly has been the backbone of great running teams. On the Longhorn interwebs and in print the zone play has been attacked and the major question for the Longhorn offense heading into 2009 has revolved around “how the Longhorns fix the running game?”
I’ve written on this several times (on facebook) and read multiple takes and believed most of them at some point regarding the flaws with the Texas running game and how to fix them. Again you’ll be unsurprised to find that I have a new take.
The criticisms of our running game are as follows, and there is definitely some truth to all them. First is that the zone runs we use (inside and outside stretch are our 2 main plays) are “horizontal” running plays where the running back follows the line to the sideline and waits forever to move upfield. Indeed, the play does call for patience from the running back while waiting for a crease to open, and then exploding through it. The proposed answer is more “downhill” running plays. We’ve even heard this from the coaching staff and they’ve done a couple of things to address this mentality. First they drew up some “downhill” running plays for the fiesta bowl where our lineman blocked downfield instead of zone-blocking (none of these plays were particularly successful or impressive) secondly, they’ve been working on the I-formation in the spring. The I-Formation is all about hitting guys and driving the defense backwards. It relies on a strong O-line and a good fullback.
Another criticism concerns the players we have running the inside zone. We have a mix on the line of guys more suited for driving players downfield (man-blocking) and guys better at moving laterally and reaching linebackers (zone-blocking). And in fact our line is primarily designed to keep Colt upright thus understanding and executing pass protection is more important for our lineman because throwing the ball is how we won 12 games last year and how we can win 14 next year. The running backs don’t escape criticism here either as it has been noted that they fail to plant and cut and burst through the creases, or find the cutback. When the defense pursues hard after the inside zone, the running back can stop and cut up field very quickly down the middle. This is even preferred, when the zone forces the defense to over pursue is when the most damage can be done . However, we don’t see this often from the Texas runners.
A final criticism is of our playbook, which I’ve repeatedly attacked, and the lack of variety in the running game. The concern is that if teams always know what we’re doing when we run the ball they’ll always crash to the side where we are running and swallow it up.
Well, I’m here now saying the Inside zone (and the zone run playbook in general) should be the primary running play for the 2009 Texas Longhorns and it can be more than adequately effective. Really there isn’t a better option to build the offense around because of our philosophy: We are at our best when we have 3 or 4 wide receivers on the field together (hopefully 3 with the emergence of someone at TE). The combinations that put our best players on the field do not include formations with 2 TE or with a fullback. When we run plays with 2 TE or with a Fullback on the field we are sitting our better players. Of course, what Colt McCoy does best is operate the spread game with multiple receiver sets and what McCoy does best should always be our concern. This has great relevance for the style of running plays you use because if you don’t have multiple tight ends or a running back you don’t have enough blockers for the I-formation and most “downfield” or more accurately “man-blocking” plays. The zone allows you to handle 7 or even 8 man fronts (when that number of defenders crowd up to the line of scrimmage before the play) while still having 3 receivers on the field. This is a main competitive advantage which Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis has commented on that demands that we stick with the zone game.
For many this is untenable. The writers at the Austin American Statesman (you’ll find very little football knowledge there) always echo what they hear from the internet or the coaches and point out that the running game was flawed because it let down Texas when it was needed most, the Tech game. This is false. They point to the numbers, Texas “ran” 28 running plays for 80 yards. These 80 yards, or really the 50 or so yards we didn’t get, are blamed for the loss. Again, this is false. There are a few things we need to look at here to understand what was going on. First of all, the lack of yardage is due largely to the 4 sacks incurred on Colt McCoy. It’s not really fair to blame the inside zone for Colt getting sacked. Additionally, the main running play that failed was the first play ran. Texas, stuck inside their own 5 yard line tried to run an I-formation (our savior!) play with Cody Johnson as fullback and got stuffed for a safety. The 2 places people point in order to illustrate the failure of the running game don’t tell the story. For the duration of the game I was almost screaming for Texas to run the ball. Even on a passing play that went for a 91 yard Touchdown my first reaction was to yell “no!!” when Colt didn’t make a hand-off. On the final drive however, Texas did run the ball with Fozzy Whittaker and this was his line: 6 rushes, 42 yards for 7 yards per carry. Those are winning numbers.
It would be dishonest, and counterproductive to my main point, to not explore an important feature of the final drive that almost won the game, the no-huddle offense. Despite an abysmal first half against OU, Texas ran the ball very well in that game by utilizing the no-huddle offense in the 2nd half. Suddnely, OU wasn’t quickly diagnosing and attacking the zone plays but getting run over for chunks of yards by Chris Ogbonnaya… Chris Ogbonnaya. For all his strengths on the football field the man was something less than Earl Campbell with the ball in his hands. Against Ohio St, who is also well coached like OU to diagnose a running play and stuff it with great tackling and technique, we started using some no-huddle and ran the ball with some effectiveness in the 2nd half while Ohio St. wore down shockingly quickly. Obviously my point is this, Texas should run more no-huddle next year, run up to the line of scrimmage and quickly run our zone-plays down teams throats.
The other criticisms don’t really add up. The lack of variety with the zone-running game is not problematic for the following teams that have offenses built on the zone-play; the Mike Shanahan Superbowl Broncos, The Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts, the resurgent Atlanta Falcons, the repeated Rosebowl losing Michigan Wolverines, the 2008 Texas Longhorns. Texas actually has several constraint plays built off the inside zone in the offense which punish teams that overload to stop the runs. The hated bubble screen is one, the play-action passes are another. Greg Davis loves to run his basic zone play and see if teams respond to it as he suspects. When they do, he punishes them with something else and fans say “hey! We should be doing more of that instead of the horizontal running game”.
I won’t say that the 08 running game was great, or that the 09 one shouldn’t seek to improve vastly. I even have some suggestions that I suspect the coaches are already after: first the teams needs to pick one running back to be the starter and give him more reps so he understands the line’s tendencies and where to look for holes and cutback lanes. Vondrell McGee is a great option. Fozzy might be better, but he’s always hurt. On plays where McGee has planted and cut upfield he’s shown a lot of power and acceleration, and the man doesn’t fumble. Additionally, the offensive line needs to spend some more time practicing the main plays. We have 3 senior starters so the answer is not starting over with another type of running play but to hone their experience and cohesiveness to build the running game. Texas can stay the course with the Inside Zone and give teams more than enough trouble while keeping Jordan Shipley, Malcolm Williams and Brandon Collins/James Kirkendoll on the field with Colt to put the rest of the Big 12 in the ground.

Avoiding being Blindsided in the NFL

2009-07-22T13:40:00.000-07:00

The average NFL starting quarterback makes 5 million per year. Consequently, the average backup makes 1.6 million per year. In his book “Blindside” Michael Lewis highlighted that the starting Left Tackle, who holds down the job of keeping the quarterback upright and healthy, is now the 2nd highest paid position player in the NFL.
The meaning of all this, is that the NFL has become focused primarily on the quarterback. Finding the next Tom Brady or Peyton Manning and building your offense around him consumes the league. However, despite increased spending on left tackles in an attempt to protect the most valuable assets, quarterbacks still get injured and ruin seasons. Brady went down last year in game one and dealt a death blow to the Patriots superbowl hopes. Carson Palmer was on the rise as one of the league’s best signal callers and took a similar knee shot that has slowed him down and cost a season and those playoffs. Teams are becoming particularly adept at finding guys like Julius Peppers or James Harrison and unleashing them on the league’s franchise players.
Meanwhile, Jake Delhomme just signed a contract this offseason worth 42.5 million over 5 years, including 20 million guaranteed. The new contract helped free cap room for the panthers in 09, but still amounted to an average of 8.5 million per year invested in a player whose last outing was one of the most putrid playoff performances I’ve seen in my life in any sport.
The fact is, finding an elite drop-back talent at quarterback, nurturing it to its potential, and then protecting that asset is overly difficult and a different approach should be taken by those squads that haven’t already invested their franchise hopes into such massive contracts.
Another approach can be found in the “gimmicky” new trend in NFL running games, the Wildcat formation.
Keep reading, I’m not suggesting that NFL teams shelve their playbooks in favor of an all-Wildcat offense. However, the reason for the success of the Wildcat and the principles behind it can hold the answer for teams that want to build offenses without first finding a diamond in the rough or using the 1st pick on the draft on a dice roll.
The reason the Wildcat is so successful is because it creates a numerical advantage for the offense. After Peyton Manning hands the ball off, even on the stretch zone play where he runs parallel to the line to deliver the ball to the running back, he is no longer a part of the play. It becomes a game of 10 on 11.
The zone-read play, used by Texas with Vince Young and countless other college and high school programs, utilizes the principles of the old Veer-option game, picks a player on defense and makes him wrong every time.
In this particular play, the offensive line fires out and blocks in one direction while leaving the backside defensive end unblocked. The quarterback reads the end while putting the ball in the stomach of the running back (running away from the end). If the end pursues the running back, the quarterback keeps the ball and runs around the end against the grain of the play. If the end stays at home, the quarterback hands off the ball and the play is a typical running play.
The wildcat is built off the same principles of the zone read, and ultimately the veer-option. In fact, the Steelers used the zone-read last year and were credited for also having “implemented the wildcat” into their offense.
Misunderstandings by ESPN aside, these plays and formations in which the quarterback is as likely a running threat as the running back, should be the building block for an NFL offense.
The reason that NFL teams don’t use these plays, or use the wildcat which utilizes a 2nd running back to take the snap instead of the quarterback, brings us back to the beginning of this post. A team which has invested 5 million in a starter, 1.5 million into a backup, and perhaps 3 million into a left tackle, will not be interested in running an offense in which their quarterback might take 8-15 hits per game running the ball.
I propose that these numbers can be dramatically altered by investing the team’s resources differently and ultimately changing the quarterback position into something new.
The Steelers 2 years ago signed Dennis Dixon, after selecting him in the 2nd round, for 425,000 dollars. The Dolphins, a bit ahead of the curve in this realm thanks to Bill Parcells, drafted Pat White in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft. College football has embraced the spread offense and the spread to run offense and will be cranking out these players every year. Juice Williams of Illinois comes to mind, and to a lesser extent, Tim Tebow for next year’s draft. What’s more, they can be had in later draft rounds for less money.
So, here’s what implementation of this offense might look like:
1). Hire an offensive coordinator with an understanding of the modern veer-option offenses. This should be easy, just get an Urban Meyer or Rich Rodriquez disciple. Maybe get somebody interested in the no-huddle as well since they mix very well.

2). Sign or draft these college quarterback/athletes who other teams don’t have obvious uses for. Instead of converting Matt Jones to receiver, try him out in the option offense (or maybe someone without a history with crack but you get the idea). These players, who don’t have obvious value in the NFL can be had at discount or with cheaper draft picks. Additionally, guys in college with little or no NFL projection now have value for your team. Players who thrive in these offenses in college like Percy Harvin or Jeremy Maclin are now NFL sure things instead of guys who will have to adjust to new offenses and roles. Anyone who has athleticism has more upside.
Now, in addition to taking these players who are used to running option offenses for colleges, you have a monopoly on certain talent and can derive greater value from others. You will miss out on the Matthew Staffords though…so you may be missing out on the next Ryan Leaf. If you can handle that kind of pressure…

3). Sign multiple quarterbacks. Teams are afraid of these running plays because of injury to the quarterback. But if you make the quarterback like every other position and have 2 or 3 Dennis Dixons on your squad you have turned the quarterback into a position like running back. You can run it by committee and not worry that a broken ankle or busted knee will ruin your season and all your playoff hopes. You could even have one higher end running quarterback (like Vince Young) with a larger salary and still find a player who can back him up and run the spread-option offense at value.

4). Build up the rest of your team with the freed up financial assets you have procured from not paying 1/6 of your cap to one player. Having an elite left tackle is still not a bad idea, but you may just want to settle for a really good left tackle and also a great Center, Guard, Right tackle etc. Ultimately an offense’s ceiling is set by the offensive line. No matter how great your split end receiver is, if you don’t have enough time to throw he’s wasted. Any solid running back can look great behind a great run-blocking line (see Denver Broncos in Mike Shanahan era). Both Mannings and Brady all benefit from having great offensive lines. If you have, say, Pat White and Juice Williams at quarterback behind an awesome offensive line you’re in business.
Additionally great teams are built through investment in the trenches. 2 great to elite Defensive tackles can make an entire defense. Investing in your lines at the expense of spending money at the skill positions is much more feasible if you are drafting your skill players in later rounds with an eye towards option weapons including at quarterback and avoiding signing enormous contracts to skill players (a new rookie cap might help as well, we’ll see if that happens).

5). The passing game still needs to exist, obviously. However, the simple passing games mastered by these players at the college level can work in the NFL level with great complexity and versatility. If teams have to load up 8 defenders in the box to stop your running game it doesn’t take Peyton Manning to punish them in the passing game and it doesn’t take a playbook with multiple volumes. NFL teams have almost infinitely more time to practice than college teams and can afford to spend time developing athletic college stars into competent enough passers.

Now, there are many people who will think that because the NFL doesn’t run offenses like this it won’t work. These are probably the same people who told us that Urban Meyer’s spread offense couldn’t handle “SEC speed!!!”. Piercing analysis which also tells us how the Dolphins went to the playoffs last year after going 1-15 in 2007 utilizing the Wildcat formation. Here are some of the likely objections to implementing this offense:

1). The option doesn’t work in the NFL because a). the defenders are faster b). the quarterbacks get injured c). the coaches figure it out
These are all similar in presuming that NFL defenders will punish teams that run the option by swallowing up plays after working out the “gimmick” and injuring your stars. Well, we’ve partially addressed this by simply having more quarterbacks and running backs (everyone already does this) on the roster to handle injuries. The notion that the option plays won’t work in the NFL is absurd. We’ve seen them work. If you think that teams struggle defending the option because it’s a gimmick that just needs to be worked out you aren’t paying attention to what other teams are doing. Most NFL teams have playbooks built around 4 main types of running plays. It isn’t the great complexity of running plays that makes teams great, it’s personnel and execution. If you have one NFL team with an option game seasoned with practice and great personnel you will have success in the running game against NFL teams. It is my contention, again, that the option running plays are better than the 4 main plays used in the NFL due to the numerical advantage of having 11 on 11 every play.

2). If this would work teams would do it.
Every year we see teams hire the same fired coaches over and over again. We see washed up quarterbacks get re-signed and old guys get another chance. The idea that teams would automatically do something that would work assumes a level of perfection achieved in the NFL that ignore previous innovation and is rather naïve. Additionally, we see teams, like the Dolphins, starting to employ these principles and finding success. Teams are afraid to be the first to try something and face ruin if it doesn’t work out. Bill Parcells doesn’t give a crap and has been ahead of the curve before in building teams (like finding Lawrence Taylor and spawning the creation of all the Julius Peppers, Shawn Merrimans, and Brian Orakpos we see today). I don’t know if we’ll see a team go as far as I’ve described but we will see more of the wildcat and some of the 11 on 11 principles are sure to finally catch hold in the NFL (whereas they’ve been staples in the high school and college game for decades).

3). You need a leader at quarterback and not another interchangeable skill position player:
I kind of made this one up myself and but it seems a likely objection and also the best one I can think of because most teams are led by their quarterback. In addition to relying on him as the focal point of the offense, he must run the offense and lead the team. If you are counting on a couple of guys to do this, or are running a greater risk of the no. 1 guy getting hurt, you will still damage the team’s chemistry.
I object somewhat to the idea that running quarterbacks will get hurt particularly more. I think that a quarterback motionless in the pocket getting sacked over and over will be injured more often than a running quarterback (see Donovan MacNabb). Certainly I must concede that they will probably wear down like running backs do and the committee approach is necessary. Due to greater practice time for NFL teams it is possible to have multiple quarterbacks (as it is running backs) who can master the system and run the team effectively. As far as overall leadership goes, I would rather roll my dice that players on the team can handle themselves professionally and that leaders would emerge then count on one guy to lead the team in every facet of the game and cross my fingers every year that he doesn’t get hurt.

This Blog

2009-07-22T11:28:00.000-07:00

This is a new blog that will feature posts by me on strategies and trends in the sports world. My predominant concern is with Texas football, however that sport has not quite reached the full-year level necessary to keep me occupied with interesting thoughts so it is more than likely that I will branch into the NFL, NBA and other collegiate concerns.
My approach is to fill the role created by Bill Simmons for the VP of Common Sense. Or rather, call me the Assistant to the VP of Common Sense. I want to demystify the complexities of football for the average fan, explain or analyze trends in sports, and still be willing to call out what I consider to be boneheaded mistakes by people in sports.
The next post will likely cover a trend in the NFL that has interested me recently, but it could just as easily be part of a huge sweeping preview I'll do for the upcoming Texas football season, should be fun...
-Ian Boyd