How about those Cowboys?

It’s time to talk about your Dallas Cowboys. I say your because I gave up Dallas fandom after the last superbowl win (1995, incidentally, also the last Dallas playoff win unless I’m mistaken). I grew less enamored with pro football for a brief period but I stand by that choice one hundred percent. The hiring of Barry Switzer alone should have driven away all the cowboy fans, or at least warned them, if not the decade and a half of Jerry Jones incompetence that followed it. Now I find the Cowboys to be a hateable franchise with unlikable players and staff.

As it is, I can’t help but be fairly invested in the Cowboys for a few reasons. First is that they are the most prominent local pro team and consequently are on television every Sunday. Second is that I watch football frequently with my pal Nathan and he’s a Cowboys fan. I enjoy taking shots at Dallas and Tony Romo and casting aspersions on the quality of person who might root for the Cowboys but I feel the ‘boys are beginning to get a bum rep.

They are 2-2 with losses to undefeated Denver on the road and the powerful looking New York Giants. Both of these games were winnable and featured poor 2nd halves by Tony Romo. It’s partly because these games were close that Dallas is getting so much criticism. The perception is that they have as much talent as anyone and are blowing it with sloppy play. Tony Romo is being chided as someone who can’t win the big game and Roy Williams as a prima donna.

Both of those criticisms are actually pretty fair, I would admit, but there is a deeper issue with this team that comes back to the real reason for the Cowboys failure to win a superbowl in the salary cap era…Jerry Jones.

Jerry Jones is in love with a man named Jason Garrett. Jason Garrett is a young man who has been charged with coordinating the Dallas offensives in their contests this season. Unless I’m missing something, which is more than possible, Jason Garrett is the type of coach who has a system he wants to run and he’ll assemble his pieces into that puzzle however best they fit. Allow me to demonstrate using my common sense powers. To begin with, what weapons does Dallas have to work with on offense?

1). A big, powerful Offensive line: These guys are all large and a handful to deal with in the running game. Flozelle Adams comes and goes as a dominant pass-blocking left tackle and generally has some trouble with speed rushers but when it comes to moving forward this unit is good.

2). 2 upper-tier Tight ends: Martellus Bennet is a good run-blocker and very solid receiving option. Jason Whitten is a good blocker, excellent receiving option and one of the best all around Tight ends in the known football world.

3). A stable of very good Running backs: They have power runner Marion Barber, great all-around back Tashard Choice, and home-run hitter Felix Jones. That’s 3 guys who could start and be excellent in all phases of the game.

4). Tony Romo: Romo is great on the run as an improvisational guy and a very good talent overall. He could really burn teams in the right system.

Now, the weaknesses:

1). Pass protection from the O-line: They can actually be very solid and held back a Giants D-line that is excellent in getting after the quarterback. Frankly, this line isn’t very consistent. Flozelle Adams has had big trouble, as previously noted, with speed rushers. I think, given the opportunity to bang head every week, they might enjoy an identity as a bruising run-blocking team.

2). The Receivers: They lost TO, who was a very good receiver if nothing else. Now they have some mediocre possesion guys and a couple of downfield targets in Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. Neither of these are guys who you want to throw to 10-15 times per game. They are limited in functionality.

3). Tony Romo: Whatever he may or may not become, he is not currently a Manning/Brees/Brady type guy who you want to build your offense around. Or if he is, he needs better pass protection and receivers to work with.

Now, given all those pieces, what would be the ideal type of offense to run? Well, whatever that might be Garret has chosen to run a Steve-Spurrier style scheme built around Romo throwing the ball 30-40 times per game and a short game featuring misdirection with draws, counters and screens.

When Dallas runs the counter, draw or screen they have a lot of success. These are excellent plays in general that Dallas can execute very well, but given the team’s strengths to feature a pass-first offense that features the running game as a constraint option is frankly stupid. The screen, draw and, to a lesser extent, the counter are all plays that are designed to punish a team for selling out against what a team does best. What Dallas does best are these constraint plays, they are averaging 6 yards per rush right now. That number even includes rushes made by Tony Romo. Dallas ran the ball 7 times in the 2nd half against Denver despite holding a lead until the 4rth quarter. 7 times. Stupid.

Perhaps Tony Romo will always fail in big games and I was the first to decry his performance against the Giants and didn’t fail to notice him missing receivers against Denver. But Jason Garrett is not putting him in a position to be successful. There wouldn’t be anything wrong with his scheme if he was coordinating the New England Patriots but the Dallas Cowboys have very different personnel.

Given their strengths a much more obvious scheme would feature the same draws, counters and screens built around a power-running game with drive-blocking and play-action passes with Romo rolling out to find his tight ends or hitting Roy Williams or Patrick Crayton shooting downfield. This team is perfectly built for this traditional style offense. I love the spread and passing as much as anyone but this team has great talent that simply isn’t built for that style.

On defense they have a very solid squad that played well against Denver and the other games I’ve seen this season. There isn’t anything wrong here and Wade Phillips knows what he’s doing with these guys. If they can change their identity on offense (probably too late) and create a system that makes sense then maybe we can see Tony Romo become comfortable enough to overcome the hump. In the meantime, they are wasting talent. Of course, that’s just fine with me I hate them anyways.

The Tech game and thoughts on the team

A lot of people are a little worried about the team, mostly because we have little else to do before Texas plays Oklahoma, and the alleged return of "2007" Colt. I’m not sure where 2007 Colt was hiding last season, I’m guessing in 2007, but I’m pretty sure he’s still there. His 2nd half highlights look as good as anything from last year while his first half struggles are troublesome but not shocking. Remember, we didn’t realize how good 2008 Colt was until the Oklahoma game. He hadn’t been tested and Texas had gotten off to some slow starts, most notably the UTEP game.
He’s missing Quan Cosby and Brandon Collins, 2 receivers whom he had developed a lot of timing with, and even offenses with returning starters take a little time to gel. I’ll be worried if we don’t break 50 over the next few games. In the meantime, I’m not.

Taylor Potts was not the player I expected. I had anticipated better throwing mechanics, less courage and less accuracy. Much has been made of his performance and resistance to blitzes. I was as shocked as anyone when he took Predator’s spear through the chest and continued to make sidearm throws in tight windows. However, in instances of actual pressure he was not excellent. Texas held Tech to 3 points in the first half getting pressure on Potts and ended late drives in the 4rth quarter with pressure. So, the man is not quite a legend yet. He played well after taking pressure but when the rush was approaching he was as poor as any hurried quarterback.

Overall I was impressed with the performances in the Tech game both by the pirates and the Longhorns. I’d like to do a unit summary of the team’s performance thus far in the season, and particularly in the Texas Tech game which I’ve now reviewed.

Offensive Line:
It all starts here on offense, and the play begins when Chris Hall snaps the ball. Rewatching the game, I found myself playing a game called “watch Chris” which I recommend as an enlightening experience. He is solid in pass protection, although he gives inside push to good tackles (like Colby Whitlock, or, gulp, Gerald McCoy). I’m assuming he has a very good grasp of the offensive protections and schemes and calls them well. Ultimately, however, he is a terrible run-blocker. He gets absolutely no push off the line, and in fact allows deep penetration up the middle which frequently kill running plays. He’s at his best in protection mode, sealing defenders away from the direction of the run rather than driving them away, or getting out in the screen game (he made an amazing block for Chiles on a screen in the first half). I can understand why he starts and he has some strengths which play to the strengths of our offense. But if you want to know why Texas has so many negative or no-yardage runs play a little “watch Chris”.

Texas will not move the ball on OU using the inside-zone (although it is much more effective in no-huddle as I predicted) because there will be no push against McCoy and co. in the middle. You may think Tre Newton is the answer, and personally I’m a fan, but Texas will have to rely on sweeps and counters to run on OU.

Charlie Tanner has received a lot of criticism as well but I just didn’t notice him much in this game. I believe he, like Hall, excels in understanding what the coaches want and playing to a couple of strengths that allows him to start despite big flaws. Ulatoski was overrated by preseason accolades and mention as a top 10 draft pick but he’s a championship caliber left tackle. Kyle Hix and Snow/Huey are the best we have.

Receivers:

I want to see Malcolm Williams involved more. He’s said to be inconsistent in practice but he’s clearly a guy that just needs to see some game success and he can take off. He has the talent to be the best in the league.
That said, John Chiles is a dangerous weapon and brings a lot when he’s on the field. First, there is the “Wildcat” package Texas can use him in without making a substitution, then there is his game changing speed and open field moves. As a recipient in the screen game he’s very valuable. Shipley is what we thought he was, Kirkendoll has been solid, Buckner is a rising star. It’s an excellent group.

Running backs:

Tre Newton is the best running back on the roster unless Fozzy can stay healthy and show something. His vision, developed from his time at Southlake Carrol and the spread offense at high school, sets him apart from the other backs. Cody Johnson is a great short-yardage runner. It’s nice to have an automatic first down/touchdown when necessary. Situational play can make this team a champion.

Defensive Line:

The line is better than anticipated. Lamarr Houston has been better than expected playing with a healthy ankle and full year from the position. Kheeston Randall is like a Blake Gideon at Nose Tackle. He can do all the necessary things, like taking on double teams without getting blown backwards, getting push up the middle in man on man, and so on. He’s not making a lot of plays but doing what Texas needs. Also, there isn’t much behind him.

Eddie Jones has been a very strong pass rusher, Sam Acho might become a star and the ends overall are amongst the best in the country. Sergio Kindle is one of the best defensive players in the nation. He is a certain top 10 draft pick. He can singlehandedly destroy a team and almost did so with the Taylor Potts sack. He bowled over lineman and went totally around veteran Marlon Winn. These were Tech lineman, bred and molded by Leach to stay in front of pass-rushers. Everything Leach does makes it easier for lineman but Kindle still dominated. The Potts fumble and Earl Thomas fumble were both directly caused by the Predator.

If it wasn’t enough that he’s an athlete way beyond the norm, Muschamp makes it easier for him by using the 3-3-5 and blitzing Kindle from all directions. If Texas doesn’t want to pit him against the other team’s left tackle they don’t have to do so, and the change can be made without substitution.

Linebackers:

Emmanuel Acho has stolen my heart. Between every game last season and this Blake Gideon has forced one turnover. The biggest leap to be made from good defense (2008) to elite defense (championship 09 defense) is forcing turnovers. Emmanuel Acho caused 2 fumbles against Tech in one half of football.

Acho and Keenan Robinson are spectacular linebackers of the variety that Texas needs in league games against spread passing teams. They blitz well, cover and tackle in space, and they force turnovers. I’m excited. Roddrick Muckleroy is actually one of the best linebackers in the Big 12.

Secondary:

While this has been a team strength it hasn’t been quite as elite as might have been excited by more hopeful prognosticators, like myself. I would rank the defensive backs as follows:

1). Earl Thomas
2). Aaron Williams
3). Curtis Brown
4). Chykie Brown
5). Blake Gideon

Teams are afraid to go anywhere near Earl when he’s playing back. He flies to the ball quickly and makes big hits. Aaron Williams is another playmaker and together with Earl is pushing this unit towards elite status. Curtis Brown is thrown to a lot (there isn’t much choice left) but it takes a good throw to beat him. He blankets outside receivers and isn’t a weakness but another cog that allows Texas to play coverages that free up the front 7 from responsibility other than murdering quarterbacks.

Shocking Brown has been a little disappointing this season allowing receivers to break free with good routes and moves. I’m not sure if his concentration has been down or what, but he’s been supplanted by Curtis and will have to earn his spot back. Blake Gideon is one of the most consistent players on the team, and it seems unfair to criticism him and not Kheeston Randall, but he’s the potential variable in the equation. Backup Christian Scott, if ever cleared academically, could be a player that gives Texas playmakers all over the coverage. Gideon is excellent at working very hard to be where he needs to be and making sure clean-up tackles on big plays but he can’t jump routes or react like Thomas does when the ball is in the air. Texas can dominate with Gideon, but Scott could make things really interesting.

Thus far then, we’re seeing a defense that might be Mack’s best and an offense likely to find it’s way into top form (with the addition of Newton and more stability from Colt). Don’t underestimate the effect of the no-huddle, when used more in league play, as well as Davis’ adjustments to all the soft coverages Texas is facing. So far, so good.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Let me begin by giving kudos to the Oklahoma Sooners for wasting no time in giving due credit for last year’s offensive success to Duke Robinson, Phil Loadholt and Jon Cooper. It took an entire offseason and a devastating first loss but they finally publicly showed their support for the previous offensive line’s legacy by demonstrating utter futility in Dallas yesterday. It won’t be the first time they do that this season. Nothing says “thanks for all the good work guys” like 9 penalties and a devastating series of hits on the best pocket quarterback in the school’s history (unless you count Troy Aikman, who was benched because the team ran the wishbone).

That said, they run-blocked pretty well as DeMarco Murray had 58 yards on 10 carries. Of course, when you find yourself in a vicious low-scoring cockfight there is no place for running the ball. Especially when you have a terrible, inexperienced quarterback throwing to a new cast of receivers missing their best player (Jermaine Gresham). Good job, Big Game Bob.

Oklahoma St. looked pretty solid. They punked a poor Georgia offense and their offense looked about like it did last season, very good if not quite elite. Perrish Cox looks phenomenal and the D-line was better than adequate. They’re still giving up loads of points against the Big 12 offenses and perhaps will hold down OU’s weak looking squad prompting undue credit to the new DC and further trashing of Todd Beckman.

Of course, we must talk about the Horns as well. Let’s start with

1). Special Teams:
I think our special teams will be a big difference maker this season. Potentially a game changing play will be made on special teams in Stillwater or Dallas. The punting is good, and all our kickers are as good as you might expect from college players. The return game is looking very promising. Earl Thomas wasn’t the greatest punt returner but he’s merely a placeholder. Jordan Shipley will play there when it matters most. DJ Monroe is perhaps the fastest player on the team and his participation on kick returns is pretty exciting.

2). Offense:
McCoy was McCoy. He threw a terrible INT but it’s early in the year. He’s going to be the best quarterback in the country. He still has some happy feet in the pocket and drifts out when it isn’t necessary to do so but overall, he was excellent and spread the ball to a big cast of receivers.
Speaking of the receivers, they look phenomenal. When Texas used the 4-wide receiver set with Dan Buckner in the TE-Flex spot they were picking up huge chunks of yards over the middle of the field. Jordan Shipley was used in that role last year and took some heavy punishment while torching OU and the rest of the Big 12. That Buckner can already occupy that role so well will mean great things for the offense. Kirkendoll looked over the middle as well.
The outside is very interesting. We didn’t see much of Malcolm Williams, which would be a great disappointment if not for the reason. The reason is John Chiles. He’s cut the the 15 pounds he needlessly added to play QB and he looks good in the open field. He’s a fantastic weapon for teams to account for, and teams just don’t have the resources in the back 7 to account for Chiles on the edge while defending the middle and the lethal Jordan Shipley.
Jordan might be the most underrated WR in the country. He’s really, really good. I don’t know what else to tell you. He does everything that WR’s are supposed to do well. He’s not huge and tall, that’s his only weakness.

The Texas running game pleased me greatly yesterday, except the fumbles. Greg Davis wisely chose not to scrap our zone-running game as I predicted in this space earlier. Instead, he did exactly what I proposed and expected and employed the inside and outside zones from a no-huddle offense with Vondrell McGee and successfully moved the ball down the field. He made 2 other tweaks that also generated some real results.

They moved Colt under center in the traditional 11 personnel (1 TE, 1 RB) formation we usually run from the shotgun and employed the zone-runs and play-action. We’ll see more of this later in the year. It’ll be a nice way to punish the over-aggressive Sooners.
Finally, they played DJ Monroe at RB and ran the old counter we really haven’t seen since Jamaal Charles left. I suppose they feel that you need great speed to the outside to run if effectively. At any rate, Monroe was a monster on the outside zone and counter and should see a lot of action in that role.

Between the 4 and 5 wide offense, the no-huddle under-center offense, DJ Monroe and the unstoppable jumbo package Texas has too many strengths on offense for any team to be able to handle.

On defense we showed a few interesting traits. We gave up some big plays, but the fact is that Texas will do that all year. Muschamp is going to play aggressively against what teams are running and leave Corners in single coverage and attack upfield. Now, there will be better execution down the road and you’ll see this defense play better and tighter but still give up some big plays in the running game or passing game as the competition intensifies.

The secondary looked pretty solid, barring the one play where Chykie blew coverage one on one and gave up a 75 yard TD pass. Ben Wells made a huge hit late in the game, hopefully this will give him confidence along with Christian Scott’s possible absence this season due to academic issues.

The Linebackers looked like an elite unit such as Texas hasn’t had since I started watching them. Roddrick Muckelroy picked up where he left off. Norton (hopefully not seriously injured) was good and a great inside back in our new 3-3-5 look. E. Acho and Keenan Robinson are fast strikers who can play in space or inside as necessary. I like them all a great deal.

Defensive End seems to have been the underrated strength of the team. Sam Acho might be better than I even dared to hope. Texas played the option last night about as poorly as they did when A&M used it to pull that disgusting upset in 2006 with the exception of Acho. When they ran it at Sergio he ran straight at the quarterback hoping to deliver a killing shot and set them up for the pitch that yielded some good runs. Acho played contain on the pitch man, forced the quarterback to keep it and created a fumble. He plays smart but is very athletic and gets in the backfield. Kindle, while a little over-aggressive on the option, is going to be phenomenal this season. He’s relentless in his pressure and athletic enough to punish teams on every play because of his pursuit. He might end Sam Bradford’s life this season. Alex Okafor also looked very good, and more importantly, he looked great against the run. Coming into the season he was supposed to be another pass-rushing weapon to rotate in against the hapless Big 12 quarterbacks we face but he demonstrated the know-how to use his penetration and athleticism to blow up the LA Monroe running game.

Houston played well but it was hard to evaluate DT play from the upper deck where I sat. Texas used the 4-2-5 under front they used for much of last season and also mixed in a lot of 3-3-5. I intended to write about the 3-3-5 before the season started but didn’t fully grasp what we’re doing with it.

Last season the front looked like this:


This year as follows:

Last season, Muschamp used the first front to create one-on-one matchups that paid big dividends for the pass-rush. The ends line up against the guards (who aren’t typically selected for their ability to defend the quarterback from quick rushers) and avoid double teams. Kindle could rush from the same side as Orakpo and prevent the Left tackle from coming to double Orakpo. If a team asked a guard to help double team Roy Miller they then had to also ask a tackle to slide inside 2 or 3 yards in time to block Orakpo or Houston, which is a little more useful than asking me to suit up and block Orakpo or Houston.

This season the ends are in the more traditional 5-tech, meaning they are lined up over the tackles instead of the guards. I’m not clear on the reasoning for this change but evidently Muschamp is not as interested in creating matchups for Kheeston Randall or Ben Alexander as he was with Roy Miller and I sympathize. Instead the linebackers we’ll have to take on guards inside more often and the ends have more responsibility, perfectly acceptable terms since these are team strengths. We’ll see how this front develops over the course of the season and what advantages it lends to Muschamp’s squad. Overall, I feel great about the defense, despite the 20 points allowed. They are fast and aggressive and will certainly create some turnovers. It also warrants mentioning that despite allowing 20 points, the defense only gave up 298 yards for the game yesterday.

So far so good, bring on Wyoming…

Diverging philosophies: how Texas and OU dominate on defense in 2009

In the most basic sense, Texas and OU are opposites on defense. Oklahoma prefers to play zone-defense, Texas likes to play man to man. Oklahoma uses a lot of catch-all coverages whereas Texas will substitute players and packages for different situations. That’s not an indictment of OU, who consistently produces top defenses, but merely a weak summary of the different philosophies. However, the goal is the same, to dominate the Big 12.

I expect this season to see a few defenses strike back against the offenses in the Big 12 as they realize the need to play more nickel formations and emphasize quarterback pressure. Additionally, both Texas and OU who are already ahead of the pack on defense thanks to better talent and coordination, have many great defensive players coming back this season. From Stoops and Venables I expect much of the same stuff they’ve run the last 10 years under Stoops. Texas now has the luxury of returning players in the secondary who are both talented AND have played in games before.

Oklahoma loves to attack on defense. There are famous (or infamous depending on which side of the Red River you fall) quotes from OU players discussing how they would call out the Texas play before the snap and know exactly where and how to stuff it. Schematically they prefer to play a lot of zone for this very reason. All 11 guys can watch the play, diagnose what’s going on and attack as a group. They are fairly varied in terms of coverages but in the current Big 12 against all the spread passing games they sit in Cover-2 and Cover-4 with lots of pattern-reading.

Cover-2 is a fairly well known coverage at this point. In zone it goes as follows:


Poor paint illustration aside, you might be able to see a weakness in the cover-2 zone. Namely, after a certain point, there are only 2 guys responsible for a lot of deep field. If a team sent 4 receivers straight down the field eventually they would run past all the zone defenders and the 2 safeties would be responsible for guarding 4 players. There are 2 means of avoiding this, first is pattern reading.

In pattern reading, the defenders start in their zones but will adjust based on what routes the receivers run. If the tight end and the receiver on the right side both go deep the linebacker will escort the tight end a ways or the safety will pick him up sooner depending on how the team runs it. Oklahoma does this frequently, and Texas does it as well.

The other means of avoiding the 4 vertical route dilemma is Cover-4. Now, some might remember that on facebook I habitually ripped into the Cover-4 when Texas ran it in 2006 and 2007. I despised the scheme and thought it had little to no value against the spread offense. As it turns out, it’s a terrific spread scheme if coached properly and with the right personnel. Whereas in the Cover-2 the safeties need to stay deep and the corners stay low to help with short routes and against the running game, in the cover-4 the safeties are freed up to be aggressive.


Here the corners are responsible for making sure someone doesn’t get behind them. However, they may also have safety help like in the cover-2. This can lead to a quarterback trying to throw into a cover-2 weak spot only to see the safety and corner converge on the ball. Because there are 4 potential deep defenders in the cover-4 the safeties have the freedom to be very aggressive. A defense can have a 9 man front against the running game without sacrificing deep passes. Of course, this coverage is susceptible to play-action and trick plays. Remember all the times that Texas got burned by trick plays in 2006-2007? Yeah. Additionally, Cover-4 asks the linebackers to cover the flats. If the corners drift deep while following the receivers on the ends, the linebackers are responsible for guarding the areas occupied by cornerbacks in the cover-2. If you have Robert Killebrew and Scott Derry back there…well. It’s a long way for a linebacker to travel in a short period of time.

Oklahoma has used a lot of cover-4 over the last 10 years and it’s an optimal scheme for their philosophy. They coach up their players on the tendencies and playbooks of the opposing team, they diagnose what’s happening on the field, and then the players (and safeties in particular) are in a great position to attack what’s coming before the offense can materialize. Their linebackers and safeties are generally very good and the way they teach zone-defense and aggressiveness has a lot to do with that. They have a physical mentality to brutalize teams and intimidate.

On the lines we see some convergence between the teams. Both Stoops and Muschamp prefer to generate pressure on the quarterback with only 4 rushers. The sooners employed stand-up pass rushers before Texas started really utilizing Brian Orakpo and Sergio Kindle in this manner on a regular basis. Both coaches also like explosive defensive tackles like Lamarr Houston or the dreaded Tommie Harris (now on the bears) who blew up plays for negative yards. This year Texas has some of that speed, particularly at end. OU has ideal players all over the line.

In the back 7 both teams want turnovers and don’t prefer “bend don’t break” defensive styles, but Texas pursues this in a different manner.

Last year Texas played mostly in cover-2 man under. The difference between that and the above diagrammed Cover-2 is that only the safeties are in zone-coverage. They split the deep field in half and wait to pounce. The rest of the team is in man-coverage with whomever they are lined up against. Texas would use extensive pattern reading here as well which eventually results in man-coverage. The difference though, is that when you see a Texas cornerback isolated on a receiver he’s generally not looking back at the quarterback so often. This season Texas will likely have the best man-coverage cornerback group in the country. Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown can be trusted one on one with most receivers in the country. Given the strength of the Texas secondary and the concern with the defensive line’s ability to stop the run (along with Muschamp’s history and what I’ve seen in practice) I foresee a lot of cover-1 robber this season from Texas.

Given the desire by both OU and Texas to play physical defense that challenges and creates turnovers, there will always be a premium on putting playmakers in favorable positions. Let’s take a quick stock of Texas’ strengths and weaknesses and assume that Muschamp will employ the resources in the most efficient manner for stopping offenses and attacking the ball.

Strengths: 1). Great man-coverage corners.
2). Earl Thomas, a ball-hawk and tackling machine
3). Fast, aggressive linebackers (really speed everywhere is a team strength)
4). Speed pass rushers
5). Secondary depth

Weakness: 1). No line-consuming bulk at the tackle position.
2). Poor skill/technique against power running plays
3). Coming off a year of forcing few turnovers.

Now let me explain how Cover-1 robber addresses these issues:


Whoever ends up starting opposite Earl Thomas will take on deep coverage responsibilities alone. One safety provides deep help for everyone. Earl Thomas becomes the “robber” and drops down to the middle of the field and reads the quarterback’s eyes. Then he attacks where the ball is thrown. I’ve seen him used this way and pick off Colt in scrimmage or practice a couple of times already. I’ve no idea what he’ll do this season against mortal quarterbacks but it may be legendary.

In addition to putting Earl close to the action where he can disrupt and take as he pleases, you’ve also given your defense better numbers against the run. You can line up Aaron Williams against the slot receiver and have a big physical corner close the action on running plays. Every running play in his direction will rely either on that receiver blocking him (unlikely) or he will have to be accounted for by a lineman freeing up other players. Earl can drop down on the other side and serves as an undersized linebacker. Thus, you can have a 7 or 8 man front and outnumber the offense on running plays while still using 5 defensive backs and not asking a linebacker to cover a Jordan Shipley.

Additionally, you can redraw the coverage to feature Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown on the outside receivers, Blake Gideon deep, Earl as the robber and Christian Scott as the slot defender. Or perhaps Earl as the slot defender and Scott as the robber, there are many possibilities afforded by the team’s depth and athletes.

Texas can now challenge everything an offense wants to do up and down the football field with tight coverage. They can apply constant pressure on the quarterback and running game due to the freedom from not dedicating 2 safeties to deep coverage every play. Now, they’ll get beat from time to time with running plays or a deep pass but the turnovers generated will more than cover for this.

Finally, it’s important to note that Texas will not have a catch-all scheme as promising as cover-1 robber may appear. Muschamp will do some 3-down lineman wizardry I don’t fully understand yet, cover-2 pattern reading, cover-2 man under, cover-3 (for blitzes), cover-1 with no robber (for more blitzes) and so on. Oklahoma will stick with their 4-3 front as much as possible and rely on aggressiveness and zone. The players are taught to deal with the various possibilities from a base set.

Muschamp simplifies by having multiple packages with simple responsibilities. Last year Kindle had no idea how to play defensive end and still hadn’t mastered linebacker, but Muschamp would draw up plans that would give him simple goals, like “go kill the quarterback”.

Two different means and primary coverages for basically the same goal:
Create a physical, intimidating defense that challenges everything with the intention of creating turnovers and shutting people down. You can probably count on both teams accomplishing this on a regular basis this year.

Big 12 South Preview: the long look up from College Station

Alright, now we come to more familiar territory with the Big 12 South. Most likely no one will be surprised by my expectations for which team looks strongest, but what matters is that the reasoning is sound and compelling. Now that we’ve moved south I should have stronger and better opinions because I watch these teams consistently.

Alright let’s go ahead and begin:

6). Texas A&M

QB: 3
Jerrod Johnson is one of the better things going for A&M right now. He’s a solid passer and fairly mobile in the pocket. This will also be his 2nd year as a starter in the system with a returning group of receivers to hit. Typically the 2nd year is when a player makes the biggest leap.

Skill players: 3.5
So far, looking good at Texas A&M. They have 2 very talented receivers in backup QB Ryan Tannehil and Jeff Tuller. Cyrus Gray is a well regarded talent at RB and top Texas running back recruit Christine Michael. There’s talent now and a chance to be really good in the next few years.

Offensive line: 2
This is where everything begins to crumble for Texas A&M. Last season injuries devastated what was already a nearly bare cupboard for Coach Sherman. They had guards moving to tackle and people playing out of position. This season they’ve moved a defensive tackle to the offensive line and he’s been entrusted the left tackle position. There are no returning starters. 2 points might be a generous rating.

Defensive backs: 3
Jordan Pugh has been a solid player at A&M for a few years now and he leeds the group from free safety and is joined by a returning starter at strong safety. Another starting corner makes this a fairly passable secondary.

Defensive line/linebackers: 2
1 point comes from having Von Miller, a pass-rushing specialist who will play the Kindle-role of blitzing as a linebacker or from the weakside as a defensive end. He’s an explosive rusher but is currently listed at 6-3 215 pounds. At that size, going up against a 300+ pound left tackle is very tiresome. These are the weights of the rest of their line: 256, 265, 253. The aggies are going to get pushed around like the Jonas brothers at a Slipknot concert. The linebackers are all new and fast. They’re the right kind of players only with no experience.



Coach: 2.5
It’s hard to give Sherman much credit as a coach yet even though he was handed the baby in 2008. He had very little to work with and he produced as much. They had no coherent scheme (supposedly a West-Coast offense guy) and horrendous play all over the field. As an NFL offensive-line coach maybe when he has talent there he’ll start producing. In the meantime they’re getting stomped by Tech and left in the dust by Baylor.

Overall: 16
This is probably the worst team in the conference. After 2 obnoxious victories over Texas in 06 and 07 I will have no hesitation in enjoying all of their losses this season. That might be as many as 9.

Texas Tech:

QB: 3.5
I could go find a 20 year old throwing the ball at a nearby park, hand him over to Coach Leach, and eventually the kid would be throwing for 4,000 yards in this offense. As it is, they have another young talent in Taylor Potts who is supposed to have a stronger, better arm and was more highly considered as a recruit than previous Tech quarterbacks. I remember hearing the same thing about Graham Harrell though and he was only marginally better than any other Tech quarterback.

Skill players: 3.5
Detron Lewis is a legitimate receiver and you know the rest of them will flash some skill developed over endless practice repetitions. Baron Batch is a very good running back who might go for 1,000 yards as Leach starts to emphasize the running game more. This is a solid collection with some dangerous speed that might be deeper than last year’s group, but there isn’t any kind of game breaker like Crabtree.

Offensive line: 3.5
Uber-obnoxious Brandon Carter is back at left guard. Leach wanted to move him to left tackle but this didn’t turn out so well. Leach is beginning to find more talent at OL instead of huge, tall kids whom he can coach into an elite holding unit. Right Tackle Marlon Winn is the other returning starter while the rest are new. Carter and Winn should provide a strong run-blocking foundation with which to build on last season’s success. The rest will undoubtedly reach the normal Tech standards. They churn out respectable system players like a factory in Lubbock.


yeah, this guy is back...


Defensive backs 2.5
Last year Daniel Charbonnet and Darcel McBath contributed 12 interceptions from the safety spots. In comparison, last season Texas had 16 turnovers as an entire defense, including only 6 interceptions. Both of them are gone. Starting corner John Wall is back and a very solid coverage guy. The rest of the secondary is new and will be playing zone most of the season.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Brandon Williams and McKinner Dixon combined for 22 sacks. In order to play Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeil’s cover-2 Tech needs defensive ends who can quickly get to the quarterback. Not looking great on that front. The outside linebackers are both back and both slow. The middle is a great strength. Nosetackle Colby Whitlock would make this year’s Texas team impregnable while Brian Duncan is one of the better middle linebackers in the conference. In a pass-happy league, tech will be strongest against the run.

Coach: 4
McNeil did a good job last year taking what seemed to be a miscast selection of 2nd choices and forming them into a decent defensive unit. Mike Leach cranks out top producing offenses in his sleep. Until they have elite talent on either side of the ball it’s hard to know what Tech is capable of but last year was probably close to the ceiling with this staff, which is pretty high for a West Texas school in the middle of nowhere.

Overall: 20
This would be another typical 8-4 or 9-3 year for Tech if not for the rise of a few other programs in the south.


Baylor:
Yeah, I think they’re better than Tech this year.

QB: 4.5
Robert Griffin is a phenomenal athlete and an underrated passer. If he played for Urban Meyer’s Florida team instead of Tebow they would be building a temple to him across the SEC either in praise or in hopes of abating his wrath. In most other conferences he would be contending to be the best quarterback.

Skill: 3
Not quite the same amount of talent here but Coach Art Briles is quickly bringing in some speedy players to create havoc in the open field. As it is they have returning running back Jay Finley, and 3 returning starters at receiver including the dangerous Kendall Wright. These guys paired with Griffin can score some points in this league.

Offensive Line: 3
They lose no. 2 pick Jason Smith who is the only player last year to actually make Sergio Kindle look like a former linebacker with no prior experience on the defensive line. He did train his replacement, Danny Watkins, before he left. Watkins is a national-caliber athlete with very little football experience. His job will be simple, keep X away from Griffin. They do return a very good center in JD Walton and starting right guard James Barnard. Odds are good that this cast can play well enough to give Griffin time to lay waste.

Defensive backs: 3
Well regarded safety Jordan Lake is back. He’s a throwback to safeties of the past who needed to light up guys over the middle and make plays against the run. In the spread era he’s still excellent but not the type of prospect teams would be looking for first at free safety. He’s joined by a returning starter in Jeremy Williams so that gives the Bears a big advantage. Both corners are first year starters and keep the unit from reaching the conference elite.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3.5
Joe Pawelek is exactly the type of middle linebacker to have in the modern Big 12 and had 6 interceptions last year with 128 tackles. Both of his henchman in the linebacker corp are returning starters. The defensive line added mega-prospect 355 pound Phil Taylor who is somehow not classified as a nosetackle. Along with their returning nosetackle starter Try Bryant and backed up by Pawelek and Lake the interior of the Bears defensive is very strong. It’ll have to be hoped for, however, that so much strength in the middle frees up the ends because Baylor needs to pick up the pressure (21 sacks last season) to see this team be able to compete with OU or Texas.

Coach: 3.5
One thing we know Art Briles excels at is finding talent where other coaches don’t look. The previous head coach at Baylor told Robert Griffin he could “walk on”. Up until late in the process Griffin had very few scholarship offers. He’s shown a lot of skill in building offenses around his team’s strengths at Baylor and at Houston. We’ll see if they can coordinate a good defense with this group.

Overall: 20.5
A lot of people are predicting Baylor to be bowl eligible this year. I’ll go one higher, I think this team can win 7 or 8 games with a brutal schedule and defeat one of the better non-Texas or OU teams. A victory over A&M is just about assured. I guarantee A&M’s tiny line and green linebackers won’t be able to handle Griffin.



Oklahoma St.

Quarterback: 4
Zac Robinson is another guy that could be an absolute star at Florida. In fact, he’s a star at Oklahoma St, which also runs a very strong and balanced spread offense. He’s become very dangerous in their passing game and is a threat on the ground as well, which really clamps down on what a defense can do to stop them.

Skill players: 4
They lost perhaps the best tight end in the conference in Brandon Pettigrew and the receivers not named Dez Bryant are lesser players. However, they still have Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant and each are perhaps the best in the conference at their respective positions (RB and WR) or close behind the leader. Dez Bryant demands a lot of attention and Hunter hit Texas for 8 yards per carry last season. Hunter’s backup Totson is another strong runner.

Offensive line: 4
This is a really good offense, and it’s paced by an excellent line. LT Russel Okung might be a top 10 draft pick next season and they return both their center and their Right tackle, so the foundation of the line is built on experienced guys who are also great players. The 2 new guards are inexperienced but talented.

Defensive backs: 2.5
Perrish Cox is the lone returning starter in the secondary (unless you count LB/SS hybrid Andre Sexton). Terrance Anderson is a senior with some experience but the rest of the new starters will be solid young guys learning the ropes.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Andre Sexton is the right man at the right time for OSU. He’s a fantastic LB/SS hybrid rover of the variety that you need in today’s big 12 to be successful. The rest of this bunch is more of a mystery. There is a chance for strength from ends Ugo Chinasa and Jeremiah Price and defensive tackle Derek Burton is a senior returning starter. All the linebackers are returning starters and solid players. The pass rush, however, was nonexistent last year and has a long way to reach adequacy.

Coach: 3.5
I saw a list that rated Mike Gundy as either last or 2nd to last amongst Big 12 coaches. We’ll put that as exhibit z in why many in the sports media don’t know anything about football. This staff covered a huge gap in talent and drew within 4 points of Texas in Austin 2 weeks after demolishing NFL-loaded Missouri as being a credible national team.

Overall: 21
As I wrote earlier, I don’t think this team is beating Texas or causing another crazy 3-way tie scenario in the Big 12 South. However, this is a loaded offense that has excellent talent and experience across the board.

Oklahoma: Of course they aren’t no. 1…

QB: 5
Sam Bradford is as good as they come. He throws very accurate deeper patterns and can absolutely murder a team when he has time to throw regardless of the quality of the secondary. He hits his receivers in stride and creates tons of yards after catch. We haven’t seen him lead OU down the stretch in a big 4rth quarter yet but I’m not sure the fault lies with him.

Skill Players: 4
Since that genius Jermaine Gresham decided to return with Sam Bradford to store up the undeniable value of an Oklahoma University Diploma there offense will be in better shape. He’s a tremendous player and punished the Florida defense better than anyone else in Crimson. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown are both returning 1,000 yard rushers, although we’ll see what happens when they aren’t running behind Cooper and Robinson. Ryan Broyles is a great receiver, the rest are solid new guys that Bradford will make look good but aren’t game breakers. They also have a very versatile Fullback named Matt Clapp that allows them to run a lot of different formations in no-huddle because he can line up as a fullback, receiver, halfback or even tight end. This is the type of player you find on championship teams.

Offensive Line: 3
This is going to be the best part about watching Oklahoma this season, at least from the perspective of a Texas fan. Last season the line mauled every opposing defensive-line save for Texas and Florida (and TCU to a lesser extent), both of whom gave them fits. This season they’ll have 1 returning starter, Trent Williams, who is moving from Right Tackle to left. Against anyone not named Sergio Kindle he may look alright but Orlando Pace he is not. The starting center is currently injured, along with his backup. It’s possible OU will have to use a converted tight end until they get healthy. If that’s the case for more than a few games this unit will drop from a 3 to a 2. You can’t replace your center with just anyone over 270 with a crimson shirt.

Defensive backs: 3.5
OU is getting a lot of national respect for their secondary but I’m not fully buying it. As slow as safeties Lendy Holmes and Nic Harris might have been, both of them knew the system. Nic Harris in particular was a very heady player who I think could make an NFL roster as an outside linebacker or safety in nickel or dime packages. He made big plays for them. Lendy Holmes had 5 interceptions. New starter Quinton Carter is a big hitter and both he and new SS Sam Proctor aren’t totally inexperienced but OU’s zone scheme calls for great safety play to be elite. Both starting Corners are back and both are very solid. Dominique Franks is considered All-Conference.

Defensive line/linebackers: 5
For this reason, OU might have their best defense since the 2000 championship team. Travis Lewis is an excellent Weakside linebacker and amassed 144 tackles last season. Lewis and Keenan Clayton are the type of linebackers all the other Big 12 schools are searching for. If Ryan Reynolds can stay healthy he’s a great Middle linebacker. If not, they’ve accumulated a ton of talent to replace him this time around.
The defensive-line will be close to as good as Texas’ last season. It starts with nosetackle Gerald McCoy, who is a top 10 pick, consumes 2 blockers per play, and collapses the pocket. DeMarcus Granger and Adrian Taylor make for a great 3 man rotation at tackle.
They have 3 ends better than anyone at Oklahoma St. with Beal, English and Frank Alexander. It’s an ideal unit, strong against the run, and great at pass-rushing with depth at every position.

Coach: 4.5
Kevin Wilson has designed a no-huddle offense at OU that was able to bulldoze over teams last season and scored 60 points 4 times in a row. It’s based in versatility and simplicity, which is what you want when you field elite talent. On defense, they’ve been doing the same thing for years, playing a highly aggressive Cover-4 zone that can demolish a team if they don’t have something up their sleeves. On the other hand, I would literally have to do a google search or think for about 2 minutes to remember the last bowl game this staff won.

Overall: 25
Very good everywhere, except on the offensive line. Sort of like last year’s Cowboys. Dallas will see some pretty poor line play in 2009.

Texas: We all knew this was coming.

QB: 5
Sam Bradford vs. Colt McCoy is about as meaningful an argument as Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. For years I took Brady because he does it in the clutch and with less talent. I take Colt for similar reasons, he’s lead a ton of comebacks, he wins big games, and he’s done it the last 2 years without a dominant vertical threat. Bradford, like Manning, probably also has it in him but hasn’t had the right circumstances. Ultimately, you’re better off than anyone else with either player. Anyways, Colt should win the Heisman this year with Bradford throwing behind tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum and Tebow, the most overrated player since Reggie Bush, playing without Percy Harvin.

Skill players: 3.5
Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t take any group of receivers over the Texas group. Malcolm Williams can be a game breaker, Jordan Shipley is phenomenal, Collins and Kirkendoll combined can equal Quan Cosby. However, as solid a stable of running backs as Texas has, there isn’t 1 guy that has emerged as a real force. Tight end is an even bigger concern, especially after the best looking player went down in the first open practice last night. If someone can emerge at Tight end as a decent vertical threat who can be any kind of “blocking surface”, as Greg Davis calls them, Texas will be okay. I’m still naming Vondrell McGee the favorite at running back with Fozzy a dark horse. Cody Johnson will still man short-yardage situations, a job for which he has no equal.

Offensive line: 4.5
All 5 starters are returning if you include Huey as a starter. Ulatoski is garnering attention as a top 10 pick next season at left tackle, although that seems a little far-fetched, and he and Chris Hall are consensus preseason all-conference guys in almost every magazine. Apparently these magazine writers don’t watch games because Chris Hall, while being a fantastic guy and extremely versatile player, hasn’t dominated anything yet. Right tackle Kyle Hix is a mauler and his partner Right guard Michael Huey make the right side a likely pathway for Texas’ attempts to run the ball. In pass protection this group may have no equal nationally so if they can start to move bodies in the running game it’s all over.

Defensive backs: 4.5
This should be the best secondary since the last championship. Earl Thomas is as good a safety as you will find in college football. Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown are both poised to break out as all-conference corners. Christian Scott is an incredible athlete who will certainly see the field while Blake Gideon has been strong enough not to give up his spot. There are 4 very good corners on this team with serious game experience and 3 safeties. It’s the best secondary in the conference by far and might be the best in the country.

Defensive line/linebackers: 4
This is similarly the best group of linebackers Texas has seen in a while. In fact, due to the dearth of quality here, this might be the best linebacker group Texas has seen in decades. Muckelroy is a tackling machine and Jared Norton could break out at middle linebacker. The backups Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho are both excellent athletes who can run, hit and blitz all of which modern linebackers need to do. Defensive end is a revolving door of talent. First there is the Predator, Sergio Kindle, who is a candidate for defensive player of the year and will move from various angles and positions to hunt quarterback. Alex Okafor is a freshman who looks like the next Brian Orakpo. Sam Acho, Eddie Jones, Okafor and some other ends will also plenty of action in the 3-3-5 alignment or the 4-2-5. Tackle is a concern. Lamarr Houston can be one of the better tackles in the conference but lining up next to him will be the weakness of the defense. Like at tight end, Texas just needs to find someone who can take on a few responsibilities and eat space and this defense can reach an elite status.

Coach: 4.5
Texas might have the best defensive coordinator in the country with headcoach-in-waiting Will Muschamp. Mack Brown should be above reproach at this point and Greg Davis has handled great scrutiny and criticism to produce an offense that could rival or even surpass the 2005 juggernaut. It’s a good staff.

Overall: 26
I think this is the best team in the country although Florida is a very worth pre-season no. 1 considering the return of their entire defensive 2-deep. There are no glaring weaknesses on this team that can’t be overcome with smart scheming and excellent play from other positions.

Let's take a look around

The Big 12 is once again considered to be a pretty loaded conference this year, 2nd in most people’s minds only to the SEC. I actually think last year was probably the better year for offense, this year I suspect defense will make a comeback although we’ll still see plenty of teams hitting 40 points on a regular basis. Most teams have identified the need to field less than 3 linebackers on most plays and employ plenty of speed rushers to punish all the spread teams and their diminutive Texas quarterbacks.



I’ve developed a rankings system to judge the quality of teams based on what we can know in the preseason that I would like to share with all of you. I’ve rated all the teams on a scale from 1 to 5 with 5 diferent criteria.

First the quarterback, is he good? How much experience does he have? A second year quarterback will generally make a leap in improvement after a year at full speed and then an entire offseason of practicing with a better understanding of the game situation. Additionally it takes time to build chemistry with the receivers and assert himself as a leader on the team. So, I weighted experience here a lot combined with what I know of the players’ quality.

Skill players: This includes the running backs, tight ends and receivers. Mostly what I looked for here was game breakers and feature players. There’s a big difference between having start-able players at every position and having a Michael Crabtree or someone who people have to account for all the time.

The Offensive line, this is the 2nd of 3 areas where experience will be a large factor. Building chemistry between the lineman as well as adding the necessary technique and strength to be an effective lineman at this level takes time. Many of these guys are used to being one of the only players on the field with that kind of strength. It takes a while to adjust to lining up against an all-district athlete every snap.

Defensive backs; this is where experience counts again. Many teams just recruit highly athletic players and mold them into safeties and corners through strength and conditioning and endless practice repetitions in various coverages. Many of Texas’ greatest defensive backs in the last championship year took a few seasons of conditioning before they become the 4-headed terror we knew as the 2005 secondary. I’ve particularly weighted the rankings towards having experienced safeties. If these guys aren’t producing big plays for your team, you probably aren’t elite in this Big 12.

Linebackers/Defensive line: I’m looking for difference makers again, the linebacker who can create turnovers and make big hits or the defensive end that can chase the quarterback down and force the offense to drop part of the playbook. Defensive tackles are immensely important as well and overall quality is considered but the high rankings come from having difference makers.

Coaching: You can lump scheme, preparedness, special teams, intangibles and whatever else into this category. I’m less informed on many of these guys and so many of the teams have a pretty basic rating with a few standouts.

Let’s begin with the Big 12 North because it’s an interesting division and a little further from home,

Kansas St: I think this could very well be the worst team in the Big 12.

Quarterback: 2
They lost Josh Freeman to the NFL and his replacement doesn’t match the type of dual-threat option quarterback that Coach Snyder prefers for his offense. First year starter in a mismatched scheme will not amount to greatness.

Skill players: 2
They have Brandon Banks back, a 5’7” receiver who had 1000 yards last season. He returns along with some lesser receivers, a new quarterback and no running backs anyone will have heard of. So, the only proven talent will probably not be maximized.

Offensive line: 3
They return their left tackle and left guard, so they should have some solid protection. The other guys are young and fairly talented so you might expect Coach Snyder to form them into a fairly solid unit.

Defensive backs: 4
They return 2 safeties with starting experience and an extra defensive back in senior Courtney Herndon who will play the “Wildcat” or the nickel back. Additionally, they have one of the Big 12’s best corners in Joshua Moore. Lots of speed and experience back here.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
They are starting a walk-on at linebacker but they have a defensive end back with 10 sacks from a year ago in Brandon Harold. There is a chance for the defensive line to be very solid but the linebackers aren’t looking so great.

Coaching: 3
We’ll see if 120 year old Bill Snyder can return to his old ways of crafting a fundamentally solid team built for overachieving with the meager resources Kansas has to offer. If he can, they’ll have a big advantage in the North for the next few years. If not, at least they already named the stadium after him.

Overall Score: 17

Iowa St: 3.5

Quarterback: They’re returning a starting quarterback in Austen Arnaud who might be one of the better signal callers in the north this season. If they can keep him upright…

Skill Players: 2.5
Solid running back Alexander Robinson is back with several first year starter receivers. It’s hard to evaluate the skill players on a team with a terrible line but there aren’t any big game changers returning here.

Offensive line: 2.5
They have one returning starter from perhaps the worst line in the Big 12. One the one hand, all the terrible former starters are gone, on the other hand starting over will not yield immediate results.

Defensive backs: 2.5
This is where this team will really suffer. James Smith is the leading tackler from a year ago and provides one proven guy at safety. Everyone else is a first timer. A couple of talented guys are here, such as corner Leonard Johnson, but it’ll be a year before any of them are major contributors.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Lots of returning starters such as MLB Jesse Smith and lineman Nate Frere and Rashawn Parker means there will at least be some level of competence from the front 7 at Iowa State. Not enough game changing talent to cover a young secondary.

Overall: 17

Missouri:

QB: 3
They lost Chase Daniel, who quarterbacked them into prominence, however ultimately they are replacing a system quarterback with a more talented player. Blaine Gabbert won’t immediately match Daniel, but it shouldn’t be too hard for him to hold on to the reigns.

Skill players: 3
Jeremy Maclin is gone, so is Chase Coffman, both to the NFL. Running back Derrick Washington is still around though, and Missouri has recruited well here. The scheme and athletes they’ve accrued should measure up to a solid cast but nothing like last year.

Offensive line: 3.5
3 starters back from a unit that struggled last season including the left tackle and center, two of the more important positions on a zone-running team’s line. There should be improvement from the unit overall as they return a lot of experience.

Defensive backs: 2.5
Teams that lost a lot of secondary players will struggle in a league predicated on throwing the ball 40 times a game. Missouri returns 1 corner and lost Safety William Moore.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3.5
Most of this cast is fairly solid with one potential game changer in Brian Coulter, however they do return Sean Weatherspoon and he is perhaps the best linebacker in the big 12 and singlehandedly worth 1 whole rating point.

Coaching: 3
They lost their offensive coordinator but are keeping the same system and Head Coach in place. Also, he was the man who tried to incorporate Tech’s wide offensive line splits with a new line that resulted in Chase Daniel running around like Frodo Baggins in Shelob’s lair with Brian Orakpo after his soul.



Overall: 17.5
This is a rebuilding year for the defense, while the offense expects to reload. I’ll have to see it first.

Colorado

Quarterback: 2
Coach’s son Cody Hawkins has some starting experience but he also simply isn’t very good. I don’t think his ceiling is much higher than what we’ve seen.

Skill players: 2.5
I’m giving them an extra .5 in expectation that Darrel Scott might become the destroyer of worlds Longhorn fans envisioned before he spurned Texas for Colorado late in the recruiting game. If he does, maybe you could bump them up to a 3.

Offensive line: 3.5
One of the league’s best (if not the best) left tackles is back residing in the body of Nate Solder. The rest of the line is somewhat green but stocked with decent talent. The line is in place if young Mr. Hawkins or Mr. Scott want to do something about it.

Defensive backs: 3
Having only one returning starter (Cha’pelle Brown) is a big warning sign. However, he’s a very solid player and both safeties have seen some fairly extensive playing time for sophomores and have the physical talent to give a boost to a solid-looking defense.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3.5
Colorado lost Hypolite, a fantastic nose tackle, their leading rusher in Brad Jones (7 sacks) and another starting tackle. They are switching to the 3-4 behind an unproven line and return 2 linebackers. However, Colorado is all-world in churning out fantastic linebackers and there is a lot to build on here. I anticipate this defense being one of the better units in the league.

Coaching: 3.5
Hawkins has to prove himself in year 3 and he has some talent capable of doing it. Meanwhile, they have one of the best linebacker coaches in the country and a defense that can be counted on to play smart and aggressive every year.

Overall: 18.5
If Cody or Scott make the leap you’re looking at a Big 12 north contender. Otherwise they’re merely a bowl-eligible team.

Nebraska

Quarterback: 2.5
First year starter replacing Joe Ganz=trials and tribulations for the Cornhusker offense on 3rd down before they’ve probably marinated the new quarterback. On the plus side, Zac Lee (likely starter) won’t be featured and can run. The Huskers can hide him and still get some nice production when he bolts and runs.

Skill players: 3.5
They have a great running back in Roy Helu Jr. with a solid backup in Castille. Tight end McNeill will be one of the best in the conference and having a standout tight end lends itself well to a league where defenses are being built around speed. A great tight end can devastate a small defense with run-blocking and downfield receiving. The receivers aren’t much but again, that isn’t a feature in this offense.

Offensive line: 3.5
From the Center to the left tackle are returning starters and a fresh right side is composed of young talent. A big right side to run power plays to would be more optimal for this team but at least the young QB will be adequately protected. Nebraska lineman have become notorious for their, umm, conditioning and fantastic strength.

Defensive backs: 3.5
They return 3 safeties who started last season, including Larry Asante who was 2nd on the team in tackles. Having that kind of depth at safety could lend itself to the inevitable necessity of using a nickel back to cover multiple receiver sets. They also have starting corner Anthony West back who was a decent enough player last season.

Defensive line/linebackers: 4
If I could take any player from the Big 12 and put him on Texas I might take Ndamukong Suh, nosetackle, Nebraska. He led the team in tackles last season…as a nosetackle taking on 2 blockers all the time. He also led the team with 7.5 sacks and is a sure bet to be a top 10 or even top 5 pick in the next draft. He eviscerated Clemson in their bowl game. They also bring back talented end Barry Turner from a long injury and have great talent on the line along with some solid young linebackers with the necessary Big 12 speed.
Coaching: 3.5
Pellini took them from 5 wins to 9 in one year and is now in year of the implementation of his schemes. I anticipate Bo emerging as one of the top coaches in the league this year.

Overall: 20.5

Kansas:

Quarterback: 4
Todd Reesing is a very good quarterback, even standing no taller than me, and has proven himself in some big games already. This is year 3 for him starting and he has the best cast he’s had yet.

Skill players: 4
They have a deceptively good (i.e. white) running back in Jake Sharp and arguably the best receivers in the country with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe who both have a great rappaport with Reesing. Johnathan Wilson is another returning receiver as good as virtually any 3rd option in the country.

Offensive line: 3
An offenses ceiling is often set by the offensive line. This line only has to be so good for this team to reach a high ceiling. As it is, they return their center and right tackle and both are great players. The rest of the line is very green and will be tested early to provide the quality this offense needs to blow teams away.

Defensive backs: 3.5
Darrell Stuckey is one of the better safeties in the league and the team returns 4 other starters in the secondary which will be seeing 5 guys on the field in the base defense. Good overall experience aside, this isn’t a secondary stocked with the type of recruits Texas hauls in but there is some talent and speed.

Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Kansas had 3 excellent linebackers last season and they are all gone. None of the new starters stand out for what they’ve done or their recruitment. On the line, however, they return a solid pass rusher in Jake Laptad and a new end in Juco transfer Quintin Woods who was recruited to Michigan but didn’t qualify academically. Both tackles return and should provide a strong base to build from.

Coaching: 4.5
Mark Mangino took Kansas to a BCS bowl and won the game. That would be like if Baylor became bowl-eligible and starting routinely beating Texas A&M…What’s that? Really? Well, anyways, Mangino is amongst the elite coaches in the country and no one is doing more with less anywhere.

Overall: 21.5
This is your favorite to be the sacrificial lamb to Texas/OU in the Big 12 Championship.

We’ll visit the Big 12 South next and maybe project finishes and records based on the Big 12 scheduling slate. Any thoughts? I can’t claim to be an expert on all 12 teams, particularly these Northern ones.

That other game...

Texas’ schedule for 2009 is something less than the gauntlet the team had to run in 2008 which featured four primetime games in four consecutive Saturdays. This season has two games in which you could foresee danger for the Longhorns. One is in Oklahoma and the other is in Dallas. The Red River game could feature the most intense buildup the game has had while Stoops and Brown have both been involved. It’ll be discussed in this space, I assure you, both for its historical importance as well as the actual strategy and outlook of the game. However, that other game, in Stillwater, deserves some attention as well.

The Assistant to the VP of common sense is blessed with a fantastic memory that recalls a few interesting details from the last matchup between Texas and Oklahoma St. First, it was a close 28-24 battle that came down to a last minute attempt by the Cowboys to win the game after the Longhorns foolishly went for a 4rth down touchdown instead of a field goal that would have protected the ‘Horns from a last second touchdown. Even more foolish was the play call, a play-action pass to the worst receiver on the team (the tight end) that resulted in Colt running for his life and flinging the ball to the back of the end zone. Before that feeble attempt there were a few other interesting features to the game.

Oklahoma St. ran the ball almost at will. The highly touted Texas run defense was gashed open for 229 yards, mostly by returning running back Kendall Hunter (18 carries for 161 yards, 8.9 yds. Per attempt).

OSU’s deadly WR Dez Bryant (along with the even more deadly Tim Crabtree the following week) was covered by which Texas Defensive back? 1). Ryan Palmer 2). Chykie Brown 3). Deon Beasley 4). Aaron Williams?
The answer? None of the above. Curtis Brown was given the assignment and is currently projected as the 3rd or 4rth corner on the 2009 team. Not to say that he isn’t a very talented player who might eventually break out into a superstar, but he wasn’t and still isn’t the best Longhorn to attempt to lock down a weapon like Bryant. Muschamp felt the need to keep both safeties back to prevent either Bryant, or the OSU TE Brandon Pettigrew, from punishing Texas down the field. This meant that Texas could only dedicate 6 defenders to stopping Hunter which was clearly problematic.

Late in the game Earl Thomas made a game saving play that killed an OSU drive that was almost in field goal range when he stripped the ball away from Hunter and Kindle landed on it. This was a game saving play on what otherwise would have been another long successful run by Hunter and likely an outcome changing score. Other interesting points from the game; Zac Robinson was sacked 5 times, Colt was sacked once, Brandon Pettigrew went to the NFL and is no longer a Cowboy.

Now, the major fear for the 2009 Texas Longhorns is the lack of a 2nd Defensive tackle. Texas simply isn’t used to not having several huge candidates to anchor the middle of the defense. Last year there was no one who could take on nose tackle duties if Roy Miller was injured, this year there is no one who can do it at all barring a remarkable jump from Ben Alexander or major contributions from a freshman. Teams that can run the ball effectively and with a power game have become an intimidating threat to Texas because of this factor and the only team on the schedule who fits that description is Oklahoma St.
That same team that has nearly beat Texas over and over again and has jumped out to big leads in games played in Stillwater.

Is anyone nervous yet? Well, as early as it is, I have several reasons for believing that Texas should be favored in this game and that Longhorn nation should put some of the concern to rest. Because:

1). We don’t lose this game: Mack Brown has never lost to Oklahoma St. and he’s had several good chances to do so. Texas has been down 35-7, 28-12, and 35-14 to OSU in the last few years and won all of those games.

2). OSU won’t burn Texas worse than 229 rushing yards: Texas is definitely weaker up front without Roy Miller. That man started every play in Texas’ favor by winning the battle up front in the middle. That said, the rest of the defensive line is still in great shape and the linebackers behind them will be better. Most importantly, with a veteran defensive backfield, guys like Chykie and A. Williams healthy, and no Brandon Pettigrew on the field Texas can bring 7 or 8 defenders into “the box” and crowd the line of scrimmage to compensate for having no Roy Miller. An 8 man front with this team’s speed should be more effective than last year’s defense with 6 guys and Roy Miller. Also, Texas already beat them while giving up over 200 yards rushing, surely Oklahoma St. won’t gash Texas worse than that…

3). Tim Beckman is gone: Tim Beckman was the defensive Coordinator at Oklahoma St. the last 2 seasons. Because he was replaced this season after taking the head coaching job at Toledo he is taking the blame for OSU’s defensive struggles last season with his “overcomplicated” schemes and plans. These are all lies and attempts by OSU and major media to sell OSU as a possible challenger to OU or Texas for conference supremacy. The new “Texas Tech” for 2009.

The truth is this; Tim Beckman has been involved in 3 games where Colt McCoy was seriously challenged by the defense and is largely responsible for OSU’s breakout win against Missouri last season. He was an assistant coach at Ohio St. when that team came into Austin and blew up the defending champions winning streak. The following year at Stillwater he watched his defense intercept Colt 3 times and almost win before collapsing late and utterly failing to catch Jamaal Charles.



Last season he drew up a defense that made every Texas drive as difficult as possible, forced Texas to convert long touchdown drives and ultimately, with a lot of help from the offense, held the ‘Horns to 28 points.

Beckman’s style is this, he loves to show a quarterback one defensive coverage and then have his players shift into a different one right before the snap to confuse the offense and prevent the quarterback from having a solid grasp on where he can throw the ball. The new coordinator, Bill Young, has been dominating at Miami the last few seasons and is coming home to his alma mater. He’s abandoning the late shifts and “confusing” schemes with straight forward gameplans and coverages that will simplify things and concentrate on execution, a terrible idea for the Cowboys.

Emphasizing simple concepts and better execution is what teams with talent, like Miami, do. Make things real simple for your athletes and let them get to work. Oklahoma doesn’t have those athletes on defense. This defensive line doesn’t have the talent to get to the quarterback with 4 guys, the backfield can’t show a simple coverage and out-execute guys like Sam Bradford, Todd Reesing, Robert Griffin or Colt McCoy. McCoy threw the ball 45 times last year and was only sacked once. Tech and OU had all the time in the world to throw. This year’s line won’t be significantly better. Bill Young is going to find out very quickly that coaching in the ACC against crappy offenses with premium Florida athletes is different than coaching in the Big 12 with 2nd or 3rd tier Texas and Oklahoma players. I’m calling BS on Oklahoma St. showing much improvement on defense this year whereas Texas can certainly be better on offense.

Granted, it’s only just now August and neither team has played a game yet, but if it’s at all safe to speculate about teams with a lot of returning players like Texas or Oklahoma State I believe the Auspices are good for another demoralizing defeat for the Cowboys at the hands of Mack Brown’s squad on Halloween night.