Colt's last hurrah: Texas offense vs. Alabama's Defense

In the last post we discussed Texas’ great difficulties with elite defenses this year. You may recall that in this space at the beginning of the year I called 2009 “revenge of the defense”. Teams were losing skill players, quarterbacks and offensive line talent while major programs were returning major defensive players.

Anyways, Texas was absolutely wrecked in the trenches against Oklahoma in passing situations and in all phases against Nebraska. Major weaknesses have been exposed in the tendencies and the Offensive-line play. Typically, Greg Davis coached Texas is great on offense when they have a dominant trait that no one can stop with any reasonable allocation of defensive resources despite the obvious tendencies. For instance:

In 2008 Texas had the 3 step West Coast passing game with Colt McCoy throwing to Jordan Shipley and the Quan Cosby. No one could cover Quan and Shipley long enough when Colt would make a quick strike pass or dance around buying time. In 2005 (perhaps the greatest college offense ever) Texas had Vince Young running the shotgun-spread with the option and passing game. It was the perfect combination of a legendary talent with the right supporting cast, including an elite level O-line.

In 2004 Texas had Vince and Cedric Benson and the passing game was a useful constraint to the 2-man beatings inflicted on the Big 12 as well as an additional means of giving Vince space to run. When the passing game had matured by the Rose Bowl the offense was close to the 2005 juggernaut.

The other Texas offenses, no matter how talented, were ultimately susceptible usually due to weak line play or over reliance on one trait. This Texas team came into the year trying to run the same 4-wide 3 step passing game as last year and found that Quan hadn’t been replaced and that teams had worked out how to clamp down on the few routes that had devastated everyone the year before. A lot of teams on the schedule did this and it ultimately amounted to soft coverage where the defenders were free to jump the routes they knew were coming. Without other offensive weapons this Texas offense has been easy to handle for better defenses.

Now Alabama’s defensive scheme is not entirely like Nebraska’s or OUs’ style although closest to the latter. In scheme it’s perhaps most similar to what Texas has run on defense this year under Will Muschamp (who coached under Nick Saban as defensive coordinator at LSU and the Miami Dolphins). As I’ve mentioned, they lack a dominant 3-tech style tackle like Suh or McCoy to blow up the middle of the Longhorn line. Instead they use Terrance Cody to clog the middle and free up their big, athletic ends and linebackers (like All-American McClain) to blow up the middle or the edge. They use the same kind of 4-3 under defense that Muschamp uses and rotate between the 4-3 and 3-4 most frequently using the 3-4.

McClain is a 260 pound monster Middle Linebacker and the ends and other linebackers are pretty fast, downhill players. Corner Javier Arenas is a fantastic cover-guy and the safeties are OU, cover-2 downhill types that can make a big hit but aren’t covering anyone in the slot like Earl Thomas. Both are 215+ and used to handling SEC offenses with lots of power running and the play-action pass.

Alabama was built to destroy these SEC powers and namely Florida. Urban Meyer’s gator squad this year was strongest in the running game getting the fast backs on the edge or getting TE Hernandez the ball in the option game or any other way that occurs to Meyer. Tebow and the power running game could not consistently produce offense against Alabama’s perpetually unblocked linebackers and safeties, although in this game Florida had good yardage without points.

No one has really had any success against Alabama this season, but then none of Alabama’s opponents have had a ton of success against anyone of note. The more schematically advanced Auburn and Florida saw some limited success and Tennessee threw the ball fairly effective and had 10 points to show for it (as well as 2 blocked field goals). The 2005 Texas Offense and this defense would win the game by 30 points. As it is, this will be quite the struggle, I present the following considerations:

1). The immovable object vs. the wheel


Chris Hall will be lined up directly against Terrance Cody on most every offensive play. Chris Hall is most, or I might say only, useful in space. He can no sooner drive block Cody off the ball than he can levitate. The first might be the even less likely given Hall’s great faith. Unless God gives his faithful servant some such supernatural gift or Chris reworks his 295 pound frame into different proportions the Longhorns will have tremendous trouble in the running game getting blockers to McClain and the rest of the back 7. I think Davis should consider abandoning the inside and outside zone runs unless he is running no-huddle.
Which brings us to the positive side of this matchup, while the Blob will not be driven away from the play, he isn’t getting to Colt and he is not going to blow up plays in the backfield save by occupying a guard and freeing up a linebacker. In the passing game, which Texas will very likely rely on entirely, he is almost useless. Additionally, his body is not built for stamina and he can be driven off the field by a no-huddle offense and then perhaps the running game can be opened up.

2). Speed vs. Power


Texas will be the fastest offense that Alabama plays this season. Florida has some speed but ultimately only a few ways to use it since the ball is usually in Tebow’s hands and the receivers aren’t deep. Malcolm Williams, Jordan Shipley, Marquise Goodwin, Colt (as a quarterback) all have the potential to cause new problems for the Alabama squad. Conversely, Alabama’s power in the trenches could blow up anything before it starts, and the safeties are great if things stay in front of them. It is essential for Texas to use misdirection in this game and take advantage of the speed at Wide Receiver or Bama will swallow up everything and force turnovers making hard plays on the ball.

The misdirection running play debuted against OU, the traditional counters, and the counter-draw must be the staples of the Texas running game. Cody Johnson will be useful only in short-yardage. The various wide receiver screens should be abandoned and replaced with fake screens that turn into pump-fake deep throws. The comeback hitch-routes Texas runs should be supplemented with double moves deep to Shipley. Greg Davis likes to come out, do what he always does and then attack the schemes he expected to see from the defense playing his normal stuff. For once, Texas should assume that Bama will jump the traditional plays like everyone else has and play misdirection early. A fast start and early lead would be totally foreign to Alabama.

If Texas can establish a running game it’s all over. Since they almost certainly will not establish one with any consistency the best bet for scoring is through a few big plays by breaking tendency. The one great advantage to being a team that always does the same thing and relies on talent is that the exceptions will shock and awe. Malcolm Williams is a home-run threat on every play. Alabama cannot handle someone that big and fast, no one can. Both safeties are slow and aggressive, thus very vulnerable if drawn into taking a false step. Their better corner, Arenas, will almost certainly be worried about Shipley. The linebackers, like the safeties, are great playing downhill but aren’t catching people from behind. One or two big plays could very well make the difference. Another possible big play is the Colt scramble which could very well keep a crucial drive alive or punch in points in a big way.

3). Texas O-line vs. legacy


Last year this line stepped up big when it mattered in Dallas and keyed a big Texas victory and 38 offensive points against OU (Shipley kickoff return). This year it hasn’t stepped up on the big stage and is largely to blame for Colt’s failure to win the Heisman in a wide-open year. With Malcolm Williams AND Jordan Shipley in the receiving corp plus Colt and a host of competent running backs the major block to offensive dominance has been a soft running game and weak pass-protection.

OU, in addition to having Gerald McCoy dominate the Texas guards, would zone-blitz and then blanket Shipley. If Alabama doesn’t do the same thing it would reverse what game-tape recommends as well as what Alabama has done all year. Primarily, Saban prefers the same man-free coverage Muschamp has used much of the year. He uses a robber in the middle of the field which he curiously calls “the rat” who rats out the other teams coverages, passes on responsibilities and jumps routes in the middle. Or Saban will use the additional player afforded by man coverage and 1 deep safety to blitz 5 men. All the linebackers are useful blitzers so there can be no certainty which might blitz on a given play, particularly with the zone-blitz.

If ever there was a challenge this line could step up and take on this is it. Confusing blitzes from aggressive players? Nothing these guys haven’t seen before. All of them are multi-year starters. Hall is good in pass protection so long as he isn’t facing a good pass-rushing tackle…he isn’t. Ulatoski is most vulnerable to good pass-rushers who can double move to the inside. I may be wrong but nuanced pass-rush moves aren’t the name of the game for any of Alabama’s guys. They will overload blitz and punish you for your predicted reaction. The Texas line is capable of meeting that challenge and their failure to do so will result in the loss of the Heisman and the national championship.

4). Greg Davis vs. Nick Saban


"Your move white..."
Obvious mismatch. Davis has to go for broke in this game. Run misdirection early in the game. Prepare the line for the blitz and utilize the superior athletes at Wide Receiver with hot routes and deep shots that can punish a defense that won’t look so elite on their heels trying to chase Marquise Goodwin. The traditional slip screens you see in video games and occasionally in Texas games would be a welcome staple. Newton isn’t terribly fast but he is a steady weapon. A steady diet of Fig Newtons will make anyone sick in a hurry. Speaking of hurrying, a fast tempo mixed with clever plays did a number on this defense last year when Utah embarrassed the Crimson Tide and with Texas athletes it could make for a big game. Most of Auburn’s points came this way. Alabama’s size and aggressiveness is begging for a no-huddle attack.

5). Colt McCoy vs. himself


Colt McCoy is a far better quarterback than Greg McElroy. Saban wants this game to be Ingram vs. Colt. Muschamp will try his damndest to make it McElroy vs. McCoy. If you gave me odds on who is more likely to have more turnovers between McElroy and Colt I would stare into space for a while and then just start praying. The only time Nebraska would dare to allow Zac Lee to throw the ball was on deep routes off of play action where an interception was like a punt. I very much suspect that Alabama will have a similar strategy on when they choose to allow McElroy to make something happen. Colt, on the other hand, will be looking to make things happen all day long. But turnovers cannot happen like they did with Nebraska and Oklahoma, Texas can’t afford to give away points. Colt will likely have to win the game scrambling and making things happen and at the same time must shoulder this without putting the defense in holes that can allow Alabama to accumulate field goals and the odd touchdowns. If he succeeds, we can finally start the discussion about how he stacks up to his predecessor.

Texas against the dominant defensive tackle: how will Texas deal with Alabama?

Albert Haynesworth has at times been a dominant defensive tackle in the NFL, and so has Vince Wilfork. Ndamukong Suh was a dominant defensive tackle in the Big 12 this season while Terrance Cody dominated the SEC anchoring the middle of the Alabama defense.

This is Haynesworth:


This is Wilfork:

This is Suh:

This is Cody:


Anything stand out? While all of them are enormous men, they have different bodies and subsequently different physical skills. Wilfork is a big space eater who lines up across the center and defends the gaps to either side of the center. Haynesworth is an explosive athlete who attacks the gap between the Right Tackle and Right guard.

We’ll get back to that, first let’s examine some conventional wisdom regarding the Alabama vs. Texas matchup. In 2 games vs. high level defenses Texas won 12-10 and 16-13. In both games, the interior line for the Texas offense was humiliated and Colt McCoy took multiple sacks in each game.
I’d like to highlight the performances of the defensive tackles for Oklahoma and Nebraska in those games.
Gerald McCoy: 3 tackles including 2 for loss. 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries. You might also remember that his opponent, David Snow, was called for several false starts in a panic trying to deal with him.
For the season McCoy had 31 tackles, including 14.5 for loss and 5 sacks. He created 9 quarterback hurries.

Ndamukong Suh: 12 tackles including 7 for a loss of 22 yards. He had 4.5 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries. On the season he put up 77 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, one interception, 10 other passes broken up and 22 quarterback hurries.

A few things should stand out here. One is that both Suh and McCoy performed better against Texas than they did against most of the teams on their schedules. McCoy doubled his season’s quarterback hurry output against Texas alone. I have a few explanations for this
1). Chris Hall: He lines up in the center of the Texas offensive line. He completely lacks the necessary strength to stop the momentum of guys like this. He has talents and by all accounts is one of the finest young men at the university. But he is a soft interior lineman.
2). Huey’s ankle: Michael Huey is a much stronger interior lineman but he has had a bum ankle all season. It’s hard to use leverage against 280 pound men with a tender ankle.
3). David Snow’s bizarre regression. Sophomore Snow was expected to emerge as an elite interior lineman that could push the guards and Hall for their starting spots. That hasn’t happened and he looked completely lost against Gerald McCoy.

McCoy, overall, put up half of his quarterback hurries against Texas. The quarterback hurry is an underrated stat that indicates when a lineman is creating pressure on the quarterback that will lead to turnovers and incomplete passes. Gerald McCoy’s 5 quarterback hurries indicate that he was making a dwelling place in the Texas backfield in Dallas.
Suh dominated Texas to the point where nothing could be accomplished offensively because any and every play design was blown up before it could start. The frequent negative plays against Nebraska and OU stalled the Texas drives.

People want to look at these two games as a measure for how Texas will fare offensively against Alabama. It seems reasonable to conclude that since Texas won by 2 and 3 points against the two good defenses they faced (both of which were poor on offense), that an Alabama Team with an even better defense and very solid offense will consequently manhandle the Horns and walk away as champions.

I wanted to apply similar wisdom to the Texas matchup vs. Ohio State last season. Texas had amazing numbers against the run on defense while Ohio State was poor statistically against the pass. Those two bits of knowledge combined seemed to suggest a strong Texas victory. As it turned out, Texas’ front 7 was inexperienced against power running schemes and struggled with the Buckeye running game and containing Terrelle Pryor. Meanwhile, Ohio State gave up 300 passing yards but it required Colt throwing the ball over 45 times to do so and resulted in less than 25 points. That game was a forerunner in dealing with the Texas passing game that was matched in the following two games.

The gameplans used by Nebraska and OU against Texas were markedly different from each other. Nebraska just asked the defensive line to control the game and free up the back 7 defenders to sit on the Texas short passing routes they had mastered from watching game film. Some nice use of pattern reading allowed Nebraska to blow up the simple Texas offense by challenging all of Colt’s comfort reads and the domination by Suh and the D-line killed drives with negative plays.

Oklahoma could have done that as well, besides the somewhat meaningless downgrade from Suh to McCoy they have the best D-line in the conference. However, that would waste all the creative zone-blitzes Brent Venables had been writing on napkins in Oklahoma diners. Instead OU zone-blitzed Texas and rushed Colt into making hasty short throws where, again, the back 7 defenders were more than prepared for simple Texas passing routes.

So, Alabama can just get to McCoy really fast and sit on the short routes while the offense grinds out a methodical 20 points or so en route to an easy 24-9 victory right?
Well, it’s possible but they are missing one big ingredient to achieving that success. Remember those numbers put up by Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Su over the season? These were the numbers of Alabama’s star defensive tackle Terrance Cody:
25 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 pass broken up, 2 blocked kicks.
The only time Cody showed any real explosiveness up the middle was in blocking the field goals that gifted Alabama the victory over Tennessee.

The difference between Cody and Suh or McCoy is similar to the difference between Haynesworth and Wilfork. While McCoy and Suh are frequently facing double teams, like Cody, they aren’t just trying to occupy blockers and keep the line from moving defenders off the ball. They are attacking an interior gap and getting into the backfield. Terrance Cody isn’t getting into the opposing teams’ backfield. He’s occupying a center and a guard so that Rolando McClain or one of Alabama’s other big linebackers can get to the ball unimpeded. At 350+ pounds, Terrance Cody simply isn’t physically built to chase down Colt and disrupt the Texas passing game.

I’ll be back later with detailed analysis of the matchup between the Texas offense and Alabama defense but for now let’s just consider how the easy analysis can overlook the real details in matching up opponents on the gridiron. Nebraska and Oklahoma used different methods but ultimately relied on their dominant DT play to blow up the Texas offense. Alabama doesn’t play that way and while having a tremendously rare and valuable talent in Cody, they don’t have the personnel to get after Texas in the manner that Nebraska and OU did. Take a quick sigh of relief.

About those All-Big 12 Teams...

The All-Big 12 lists that rank all the conference stars as 1st team, 2nd team and so on is predominantly based on preseason expectations. If a player is expected to be great, or is a senior, his place on the lists will reflect that. Coaches will make sure to soothe each other’s political desires and reward seniors, program kids and pretend like the preseason expectations were matched by the performance on the field.

Of course there is an exception to that standard; Texas is routinely robbed in the All-conference teams. In the instance of the newly released 2009 All Big 12 teams, Texas has 3 first team players. OU managed to get 4 players selected to this list and that offensive juggernaut Kansas St. placed 4 players, all on offense.

Before I look over other injustices how about we just look at the list?

1ST Team defense:

DE: Von Miller, A&M: this one is obvious. He leads the nation in sacks.
DE: Brandon Sharpe; TT: another big achiever in the pass rush, fair choice.
DE: Jared Crick Nebraska: at this point it’s clear that they chose the ends with the 3 highest sack totals. Also, it’s unclear how this defense will perform with 3 quick-ends and 5 total defensive lineman. This will be a reoccurring theme.
DT: Ndamukong Suh: He is really good.
DT: Gerald McCoy: the tricky thing is, you can’t really point to any stats that would suggest either McCoy or Suh have been more dominant than Texas’ Lamarr Houston. They are ahead of him here because they were ahead in the preseason.

LB: Sean Witherspoon, Missouri: a lot of all-around hype for this guy.
LB: Jessie Smith Iowa St.: we can’t offend Iowa St. by not including one of their fine athletes somewhere right? Might as well do it at the expense of a Longhorn like Roddrick Muckelroy who has terrorized the league for 2 years at a level beyond anything Smith could dream of.
LB: Travis Lewis, OU There is nothing in the numbers that suggests that Lewis is better than Muckelroy either.

Here the list just names DBs but I’m going to list their exact position to further demonstrate the absurdity:

Corner: Perrish Cox, OSU: He’s a standout to be sure. Aaron Williams is a better player who was injured too often. I might take Curtis Brown here as well.
Corner: Dominique Franks, OU: Another worthy enough pick. The trend here, however, tends to reward the Sooner Defense over the even more dominant Texas one.
Coner: Prince Amakamara, Nebraska: This is our 3rd corner I notice. I suppose that actually makes sense in this league but it should be at the expense of a defensive end AND a linebacker.

Safety: Larry Asante, Nebraska: Anytime a safety makes 2 interceptions and breaks up 7 passes in a pass-heavy league you adorn him with praise.
Safety: Earl Thomas, Texas: Arguably the best player in the league, somehow not a unanimous 1st team selection.

1st Team Offense:

QB: Colt McCoy: they managed to avoid blowing this, surprisingly.
RB: Daniel Thomas, Kansas St.: The Kansas St. running game gets a lot of attention in this list. I think everyone is afraid of Coach Snyder.
RB: Keith Toston, OSU: He’s really not that great of a runner. He benefitted from getting the majority of the carries in the Oklahoma St. running system.
FB: Bryant Ward: OSU: it’s required to pick a fullback to honor so they simply choose the one on the best running team. I think OU might actually have an argument here but who cares about this position anyways.
TE: Jeron Mastrud, Kansas St. Mastrud terrorized defenses to the tune of 21 catches for 233 yards and a devastating Touchdown. When not horrifying defenses with the threat of a 3 yard release pattern, he plowed ahead for Daniel Thomas en route to 1200 yards over the worst competition college football has to offer. He’s a no brainer here.
WR: Jordan Shipley, Tx: duh. Thank you.
WR: Danario Alexander, Missouri: Pretty explosive player, 1600 yards on the year.
WR: Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas: Solid overall list at WR. You could make a case for OU’s Ryan Broyles but I sure won’t. It’s not hard to pick 3 dominant WR in this league.

Now the OL:
LT: Nick Stringer, Kansas St: Had as much to do with Thomas’ amazing success running the ball as just about anyone else on the line.
LT: Trent Williams, OU: Was not completely embarrassed by the Texas pass-rush.
LT: Russel Okung, OSU: Best LT in the conference, possible top 10 draft pick.
LT: Nate Solder, Colorado: I have trouble seeing the logic here given Colorado’s terrible pass protection.
RG: Brandon Carter, Texas Tech: Great run blocker, good pass-protector for an interior lineman. I hope he knows how to snap the ball…

KR/PR: Brandon Banks, Kansas st: He’s an awesome kick returner, with 4 TDs. Not so great a punt returner. Shipley should go here if they didn’t want to avoid rewarding the same guy twice.

At this point all I can do is attempt to form my own list. I don’t have the benefit of having seen all these teams play very much, only my own few perceptions and the use of stats which alone may ascend my list above this crappy one.
Additionally, I’m going to create a real Big 12 offense and defense. And it will be schematically coherent.

Ian’s All Big 12 Offense:

QB: Colt McCoy, Texas: I’m choosing Colt because he’s the best quarterback in the country. He can run well enough to operate some option-read and he’s the best short-intermediate passer Texas has ever had.

RB: Daniel Thomas, Kansas st: As much as I’ve mocked Kansas St. he was the most accomplished runner this year and is used to the shotgun formations this offense would run. I would rather choose a back with explosiveness in the receiving game but Batch from Tech and Murray from OU put up inconsistent seasons.

FB: There is no fullback.

TE: Riar Greer, Colorado: No one really utilized a Tight end very well in this conference but Greer is one of the better receiving threats and a solid check down for McCoy.

Sub B receiver: Jordan Shipley, Texas: He’s going in the slot where he can punish everyone.

Flanker, Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas: Another phenomenal midfield weapon.

Split End: Danario Alexander, Missouri: I would love to just put Malcolm Wiliams here and moved Alexander to flanker and could have justified it had Williams not had to split time with John Chiles. Alexander with his 6-5 frame will go very nicely here though.

LT: Adam Ulatoski, Texas: He was entrusted with handling Von Miller alone against A&M. He’s not as good as Okung, but I like Ulatoski here with potential help from Greer and Okung plowing the road on the right.
LG: Andrew Lewis, Oklahoma St: Part of the Oklahoma St. machine who is mobile enough in the zone-blocking game and good in pass protection.
C: JD Walton, Baylor: Best center in the conference that I’m aware of.
RG: Brandon Carter, Texas Tech: He’s adept at pass-protection, which is what this offense will be all about, and a punishing run-blocker.
RT: Russel Okung, Oklahoma St.: As great a Left tackle as he is, his value in the run game makes him a better fit here.

Here we have a coherent Offense that utilizes the conference’s best talent and features a line that can handle zone-blocking and the pass-protection necessary to keep McCoy upright.

Ian’s All-Big 12 defense

This defense will be designed to handle the typical Big 12 offenses and have a 4-2-5 under alignment.

End/Linebacker: Von Miller, Texas A&M: He’s lightning quick and has 17 sacks on the year. If left single-blocked he will wreck opposing passing games.
Nose-Tackle: Ndamukong Suh. He can provide a great interior pass-rush with 6.5 sacks and the ability to handle the double teams that come here. Another perk, when the double team keeps him off the QB (besides freeing up Miller) is his 10 pass break-ups at the line.

3-tech/quick tackle: Lamarr Houston, Texas: I will justify Houston over McCoy with the following numbers. Houston had more tackles, 50-31, more sacks 7-5, more quarterback hurries, 26-9, and more tackles for loss 20-14.5. Houston is a more disruptive option and lived in the opponents backfield.

Power-end: Sergio Kindle, Texas. Sergio split time as the linebacker on this side and as a defensive end at Miller’s position. His sack numbers were down on the year but his season was phenomenal. 28 quarterback hurries, 17 tackles for loss and 56 tackles overall make him the best option at this spot.

We are only taking 2 linebackers here, a Middle Linebacker and a Weakside linebacker. MLB needs to be able to handle the inside running game and intermediate coverage responsibilities. Weakside LB needs to be a fast, tackling machine who can strip the ball.

Middle Linebacker: Joe Pawelek, Baylor: Interceptions were down from last year to only one and his 4 tackles for loss weren’t stunning but overall this is one of the most well rounded players in the conference and his 109 tackles overall speak to his ability to find the football.

Weakside Linebacker, Roddrick Muckelroy, Texas: It’s time Muck got his due. I like Emmanuel Acho for the future because of his ball-stripping abilities but Muck’s 10 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 87 total tackles demonstrate how much of a speed demon he is for the Texas defense. Additionally, he did this from middle linebacker after Jared Norton was injured.

Corner: Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State: He had 4 interceptions on the season along with 15 pass break-ups.

Corner: Curtis Brown, Texas: Only 1 interception on the season for Curtis but it was one that few could make. His 14 pass break-ups are a good indicator of his athletic ability and its usefulness in finding the ball at its highest point in coverage. His 50 tackles and forced fumble also demonstrate his physical play.

Nickel: Prince Amukamara, Nebraska: He’s solid as a physical option inside against the run with 50 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble on the year. Against the dangerous slot receivers in the Big 12 he should be fine having picked off 3 passes this year and broken up 10 more. Aaron Williams might be more talented but Amukamara’s production earns him this spot.

Strong Safety: Earl Thomas, Texas: He’s going to hang near the line in Cover-1 robber at times where he can pattern read and jump routes. With 8 interceptions on the year he is a weapon to disrupt any and all passing routes made by the opposing team.
Free Safety: Quinton Carter, Oklahoma: Carter is a Cover-2 safety who can crash down on plays in front of him with speed. On my defense he’ll be way back as a free safety where his 3 interceptions and 5 pass break-ups suggest he is a more than adequate centerfield playing behind Amukamara, Brown, Cox and Thomas. He had 80 tackles on the year and 2.5 for loss so he has the ability to attack plays closer to the line as necessary.

All that said, clearly I believe that Texas has the best defense in the Big 12 and should have been rewarded as such in the all-conference teams.

Fourth and 2? how the Patriots really lost

It seems often that the NFL is a place where common sense is most easily applied in a manner that contradicts the opinion of punditry or coaching. Last night I watched the Patriots blow a 13 point lead in the 4rth quarter to Manning in the Colts and could scarcely believe what I had witnessed.

Some overall impressions I had of the game were that,
A). The Patriots O-line is still one of the best in the NFL. They get out on screen passes and make blocks downfield until the whistle stops. Kazcur had big problems with Mathis but the backup LT Vullmer was able to handle Dwight Freeney one-on-one and that’s a huge accomplishment. The Colt’s pass rush was really quite inadequate for dealing with the Pats pass-offense.

B). The only real running game for the Pats is the draw game. When they want to line up and just run the ball they are less effective. Running the ball is a major threat from the Patriots in instances and formations where the short pass to welker, or the deep pass to Moss are also likely.

C). What Manning is doing with these corp of receivers is very impressive. To me it is reminiscent of the Patriots offense pre-Moss although Manning still has Reggie Wayne.

D). Both teams lack lock-down corners and were dependent on 2 deep safeties to reliably contain Moss and Reggie Wayne from simply torching them. As it was, both receivers were still devastating.

Ultimately I thought the Patriots clock management and offensive playcalls in the 4rth quarter were poor and the reason for their shocking defeat. The Pats ran the ball, in a few short drives, 6 times for a total of 3 yards. No run went for more than 2 yards. To successfully run out the clock while holding a lead a team needs to actually sustain a drive.

It is a frustrating misconception, that you must run the ball while ahead, to win. Running out the clock is extremely valuable and running plays are the easiest way to do that. However, sustained drives regardless of whether they result in points are most important. What’s better? Driving 60 yards and kick a field goal while passing and stopping the clock some or to drive 20 yards with an ineffectual running game before punting? Which is more likely to burn clock? Which would have helped the Patriots more?

Ultimately you would prefer to be able to line up in the I-formation and run the ball effectively in the 4rth quarter on a drained defense. But if you can’t do so, and you’re facing Peyton Manning, it’s much smarter to keep your foot on the throat and keep scoring. It’s more risky to punt often and not score than to keep pushing the pace and piling up points while risking stopping the clock or turnovers.

In addition to playing too conservative on offense in the 4rth quarter, the Patriots managed to squander all their timeouts in the 2nd half well before the 2 minute mark. The opportunity to challenge the 4rth and 2 spot by the officials should have been automatic. It was a very close call, I personally think that it was a first down. If the Patriots had challenged it perhaps it’s most likely that there would have been insufficient evidence to overturn the spot and award a first down but the Patriots should have at least given themselves the chance to make a challenge.

What’s been most frustrating to me from this game, in addition to having watched the Patriots lose a game late in the 4rth quarter to an undefeated rival, has been hearing the analysis across the country condemning Belichek for his decision to go for it on 4rth down. Smartfootball.com did some quick math that concluded that the odds dictate a 4rth down attempt because the probability of conversion is high and the odds of stopping Manning weren’t great. He had 2 timeouts, 2 minutes and an exhausted defense to work against which he had been steadily picking apart throughout the quarter.

The odds of winning include the odds of converting the 4rth down in addition to the odds of preventing a touchdown from the 30 yard line. Together those make a compelling case. The opposite is the odds of stopping Manning and the punt return from scoring a TD in 2 minutes with 2 timeouts.

Is it a gutsy call? Only in the sense that failure draws greater criticism, mathematically the real risk was to punt the ball. Colin Cowherd, sometimes buffoon, argued today on the radio that it was somehow less respectful of Manning’s prowess to go for it on 4rth down? Really? The option that goes to greater lengths to prevent Manning from touching the ball is riskier?

Certainly the game came down to the 4rth quarter drive, however the circumstances that lead to that play had a much greater impact on the outcome of the game. The Patriots inability to run the ball in traditional sets in obvious running situations mixed with a failure to adjust playcalling to address that shortcoming allowed the Colts opportunities to get back in the game.

The 4rth quarter call is only criticized because it failed, much like the USC call on 4rth and 2 vs. Vince Young that would have been the Trojan’s best chance at stopping number 10 from taking the crystal ball.

How Texas can win: Scoring points

Sadly teams have found a smarter way to defend Colt and the Texas offense this season. Texas A&M figured it out in 2006 when they intercepted barely-healthy McCoy 3 times before knocking him out of the game. It took 2 years until last year’s Tech game for the rest of the nation to catch on. Basically, the standard defense Texas faces now looks like this:


The linebackers are often 5 yards off the line of scrimmage and the corners play very soft on the outside receivers. They keep the Texas receivers in front of them and force Colt to complete dink and dunk passes for 70 yard drives in order to score and wait for the inevitable failed running play or incomplete pass to kill the drive. If the offense is particularly predictable the defense has time to react…good thing that’s not an issue with Texas…

Normally, you would simply run against a 6 man front with the linebackers playing so far off the ball and be very satisfied to move the ball 5-6 yards at a time and see if you can catch a few big plays from play-action if the defense gets tired of watching you execute short passes and running plays. Texas tried this very strategy against Colorado, running the ball and attempting to work the play-action game. Unfortunately, this same prevent-style defense sets up linebackers very well against the Texas running game.

All the outside-zone runs, counters and traps that Texas ran against Colorado are slow-developing and very easy to pick up on. With a few play-action exceptions, if you see a Texas guard moving in a direction, you can count on the ball going there as well. With the linebackers sitting further back, the Texas linemen have a longer way to go to reach them on blocks. If the opponents are at all familiar with our simple running game it’s not hard to fly downhill and blow up the attempted run.

Will Oklahoma employ this strategy of playing off Texas? It’s hard to say because Stoops and Venables have so much pride that forces them to play 3 linebackers in virtually all scenarios still while also attempting to defend the entire field. However, besides tighter coverage on the outside receivers you can probably count on OU playing a little zone and aggressively coming down on our plays as soon as they read them out just like every year.

I hope this paints a fairly bleak picture of Texas’ offensive chances against OU because on the surface that’s exactly what it is. A struggling offense vs. a defense primed to take advantage.

In the big scheme of things, OU’s defense was schematically ahead of Texas’ offense until 2005 when Vince could pass or throw and no defense stood a chance. After overcoming the hump of actually scoring more than 20 points against Stoops, Greg Davis finally figured out how to attack him. In 2007 Texas played one of it’s finest offensive games under Mack Brown in the series and lost as a result of dumb 4rth quarter defense and 2 costly turnovers (one of which cost a touchdown and momentum).

In that game Jermichael Finley had 4 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown. Young Blaine Irby also had a 26 yard catch. Boom, suddenly Greg Davis knew what to do. Before the 2008 game Blaine Irby blew out his knee and Davis inserted Shipley into the new Flex tight end position in a 4-Wide Receiver offense and this resulted in 11 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Mack Brown pointed out this week that Davis gets criticized for the running game while avoiding praise for his brilliant passing game. True enough, he doesn’t get a lot of credit for an excellent college passing game, although you would like to see more than 50% comprehension of the various possibilities presented by offensive football. In 2007 he unveiled a good counter and running back draw for Jamaal Charles that resulted in 79 yards on 17 carries before a costly Charles fumble moved Davis to abandon the running game and any chance of winning.

Furthermore, we never really saw the running back draw again, despite it being the obvious staple of a pass-first offense such as Texas employs. Last year Texas found success in the running game by virtue of the OU defense simply wearing down to the point of being unable to fight off pulling guards and catch Chris Ogbonnaya. That was surprising then but not totally unlikely for this year.

This particular incarnation of OU’s defense was expected to be the greatest since perhaps the 2000 championship unit. Fortunately, I can say with confidence that it is definitively not. We’ll go over matchups later but overall the team has the same basic strengths and weakness as it does every year. They are vulnerable to misdirection, because of their aggression, and passes against the middle of the field.

This year Texas has one of its best weapons to date for attacking the middle in Dan Buckner. As excellent a receiver as Jordan Shipley is, perhaps the best to ever even play at Texas, playing flex tight end is not maximizing his potential. Dan Buckner has more of the size and strength to play over the middle and be a large target for Colt to find.

Given a decent amount of time in the pocket there should be plenty of options for Colt to hit. OU’s defensive line is strong and Jeremy Beals is an excellent pass-rusher but Venables typically insists on calling zone blitzes that Colt will read and exploit when they choose to use them. The real question is whether or not Texas can run the ball sufficiently to win.

There are a few reasons why I am optimistic that Texas will find a way to do so. Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are both injured and there is consequently no temptation for Texas to try and employ them against the OU defense. This might be a good thing given their skill sets and what Texas needs in this game. Additionally, the mythical Fozzy beast is rumored to be 100 percent for this game and is listed as co-starter with Cody Johnson. Fozzy has the skill set Texas should be looking for.

Miami found a way to run the ball on OU to the tune of 150 yards on 15 carries for Javarris James. My extensive film study (watching the game on DVR while drifting in and out of consciousness) revealed that OU’s front 7 is not actually as strong as was suspected in the preseason.

Ryan Reynolds is a perfect example of the typical weakness of an OU defense. When he correctly diagnoses the play, he flies downhill to the ball and blows things up. If you ask him to move laterally, confuse him and lure him into taking false steps, or ask him to cover a mobile receiver over the middle you set him up for failure. He has 2 surgically repaired knees and blew one of them in last year’s game.

Gerald McCoy, for all the talk, was taken out of the game against Miami by consistent double teams and the rest of that front 7 didn’t exploit the resulting freedom with any resounding success.

So, how can Texas run the ball successfully against OU? Why does it matter that Fozzy Bear will be getting the first chance to make something happen?

There are a few ways that I think are remotely likely to occur that might result in running game success that would put this game away. I’ve listed them in order of likelihood.

1). Exhaustion by the OU defense: Given a likely no-huddle pace combined with little chance for success by the OU offense this is the best bet.

2). Cutbacks by Fozzy: The best run against Colorado was the late touchdown run when, after the play was blown up again, Fozzy just reversed field and ran around the defense. While that might be a bit much to expect a few cutback runs could take Ryan Reynolds out of the picture and possibly result in some big runs.


3). The no-huddle under-center game: Texas runs the ball best from the no-huddle when teams get tired and linebackers are backpedaling against the pass. Against ULM Texas ran an excellent under-center no-huddle series and then mostly shelved it up until now. Breaking out the inside-zone (based on cutback runs) and then using play-action could get some big plays on the OU defense.

4). Wild Chiles: The Wild Horn formation, which I insist should be commonly known as “the wild Chiles” has many elements of misdirection and inventive play-calling that could really punish the OU defense. Sadly, Texas seems fairly inept in running it (why is there a QB draw in a package designed entirely around the run?).
It might prove useful, or likely it will be used a few times early, be enveloped in tacklers perhaps resulting in a turnover, and shelved for the entire 2nd half.

5). The Running back draw: Humor me. We haven’t seen it in a few years save for one attempt against Ohio St. on 3rd and long that was immediately destroyed. However, if it were pulled out again ala 2007 I believe Fozzy could find success. At least, if we have practiced it and can execute it on any level.

Now the crucial matchups:

Texas Offensive line vs. OU defensive line
Almost the exact same units faced off last season and Texas won the battle in the trenches. Gerald McCoy is a big mismatch for Chris Hall on the interior but Ulatoski and Hix should be able to keep Colt upright often enough against Beal and English on the edge. The real question is whether the line can get any push at any point in the running game against McCoy. Fortunately, they’ve had to hear that all week and Hall should be healthier while the injured Huey will be replaced by the strong David Snow inside. I’ll be shocked if Gerald McCoy isn’t double-teamed all day.

Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds and Keenan Clayton vs. Fozzy Whittaker/John Chiles

We’ve covered Fozzy vs. OU. If he gets 20 chances and any blocks I think he can break some big plays in the running and passing game. Meanwhile, Texas is building up a pretty strong screen game with the tunnel screen to the wide receiver and the bubble screen to Chiles. However, Travis Lewis is a quick-moving mauler and Reynolds will know the tendencies. They may be able to shut down these useful short-passing plays. The Wild Chiles should be breaking teams apart but given its lack of success against Colorado it’ll probably be eaten by this bunch.

Colt McCoy vs. OU safeties

The safeties are faster this year and also less experienced. I’m not giving anyone an edge on Colt. If he can get out on some unplanned runs, break containment and pick up a few first downs it could be game, set, match.


Jordan Shipley vs. the World

He’s the most underrated player in college football. Perhaps because he is white his speed and athleticism are undervalued while his amazing hands and routes are recognized but still underappreciated. Another 100 yard receiving game with a punt or kickoff TD would just about make him one of the most feared players in the history of the rivalry. I like his chances.

Indeed, the real hope is Special Teams, where Texas has become the most dominant unit in the country. DJ Monroe and Shipley on kickoffs, the punt-blocking game mixed with Shipley returning punts, and the rugby and distance punts combine to form a unit that will probably give Texas its best chance to score on OU.

I expect this to occur often enough to result in at least 28 points for Texas. I can’t see how OU keeps up with that kind of number so we could be looking at a dominating Texas win. We’ll see what kind of magic Bradford and Colt have going.

Vengeance belongs to Muschamp: defensing the Sooners

Before the season began I was highly skeptical of this Oklahoma offense. Last year’s unit overwhelmed every team they faced except Texas and Florida who actually had the speed on the line and in the secondary to handle OU’s hurry-up juggernaut, then they struggled. Texas and Florida both did tremendous damage against the vaunted OU offensive line, limited or simply ruined the running game and pressured Bradford away from dominance.

In every other game that enormous and experienced line bullied the other teams into total submission to the will of the visored one. Then all but one of those lineman graduated or left along with the majority of the OU receiving corp.


Then Jermaine Gresham, one of 3 legitimate offensive weapons, went down for the season before it began. Then Sam Bradford went down for a few games. Then Ryan Broyles broke his scapula and if you think he can actually play Saturday then you’re Bob Stoops.

That leaves Oklahoma with Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray as possible heros against Texas on Saturday.

Before the season began the gameplan for Oklahoma was probably going to focus on double TE sets with lots of power-running against Texas’ new defensive tackles mixed with play-action passes to Gresham. This would protect Bradford and the line from the Texas pass-rush while exploiting the 2 places where OU might have advantages, 1). Gresham downfield (a mismatch for any college defense to handle) and 2). Running the ball with Murray and Chris Brown against the Texas tackles.

However, as the season has progressed, Oklahoma’s running game has been suspect and the threat from a TE or any downfield receiver is virtually non-existent with Broyles injured. As it now stands, there are no places on the field where Oklahoma has any kind of real matchup advantage against the Texas defense. In the few places where Texas is vulnerable or less than excellent Oklahoma is mediocre or poor.

Given that fact, the Sooner offense is left with the gameplan of throwing the ball over and over from spread sets in the hurry up offense while frequently mixing in running back draws to try and punish the Texas line for rushing upfield in their zeal to murder Bradford and after that is accomplished, Landry Jones. Bradford will have to be extremely accurate and healthy for the entire game in order for Oklahoma to score at all barring major defensive or special teams success.

On the other side Will Muschamp has a lot more to play with. Texas can rotate from a 3-4 to a 4-3, or a 3-3-5 to a 4-2-5 with the same 11 players and has done so all year. This will allow the Texas defense to mix up the Sooner offensive line’s blocking assignments despite the hurried pace by Oklahoma. The inexperienced Oklahoma line will have little time to organize which overwhelming Texas defender they are going to have to try and block on most snaps. Given also the lack of clear mismatches that favor the Sooners, Texas is very free to experiment schematically without being afraid of leaving players in dangerous positions.

The only truly dangerous position for Texas is if Bradford has a lot of time to throw. Therefore, stopping him is first priority. If OU shows some life in the running game, Texas can play some cover-1 and drop a safety down to help out. If Oklahoma’s running game is dead Texas can play some Cover-2 man under or Cover-1 or Cover-3 zone with heavy blitzing.

All of these are likely. Texas blitzed frequently against a Tech passing game that was much more dangerous than OU and isn’t afraid of leaving Aaron Williams or the Browns against whomever it is that plays receiver at OU this season. Overall, whatever OU shows early success with Texas can scheme against with greater resources.

Now let’s examine some of the crucial matchups in the game

Trent Williams vs. Sam Acho/Sergio Kindle

Trent Williams is regarded as an NFL level left-tackle with a lot of speed and pass-protection talent. I think he is vastly overrated and personally watched Sergio Kindle murder him last year with less refined moves than he is operating with this season. Meanwhile, Miami sacked Landry Jones 3 times, including one by Trent Williams’ assignment. If OU is dropping back to throw 40-50 times, which they probably must, I predict Sergio will cost Trent millions in the draft as Orakpo did Loadholt last season.

check out :43 to see Kindle after matching up on Trent in 2008.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOLNdu2LI9M&feature=player_embedded

Jarvis Jones vs. Sam Acho/Sergio Kindle

Texas moves the Predator around a lot and he may find himself up against OU’s Right tackle, Jarvis Jones, as well in this game. Sam Acho has 5 sacks thus far in the season and should be a major concern for Oklahoma. Sergio Kindle must be keeping Jones awake at night with fits of terror. Jarvis Jones is a terrible matchup for Kindle, Acho, Eddie Jones, or any of the other better pass-rushers at Texas. This is exhibit A in why it might be criminally irresponsible for Stoops to risk Bradford in this game.


OU receivers vs. Texas Secondary

The only place in the Texas secondary that is potentially vulnerable is Blake Gideon deep. He’s slow and doesn’t offer a ton of deep support. However, he is imminently competent and more than good enough to handle the deep passing threats from OU. Curtis Brown and Aaron Williams should be able to completely lock down their matchups in press-coverage.

DeMarco Murray/Chris Brown vs. Texas linebacker corp

This is the best linebacker Corp Texas has had in a long time. I don’t even know how long because it might have been before I was born that a better group roamed the field in burnt orange and white. OU is likely to use the RB draws that were successful against Miami along with their complement of great screens to try and utilize their only remaining weapons. Fortunately, Texas is proving itself to be one of the best defenses in the screen game in modern college football. Muckelroy is great at sniffing these out along with Houston and the Texas defensive ends. Count that as another OU strength negated by injury or Texas strength.

Sam Bradford vs. Earl Thomas

If Bradford is wise he will try and avoid little Earl when possible and increase the likelihood of a turnover free game from OU which is a necessity for a Sooner victory. Earl can end the game with a few route jumps or a pic-six. Last year one of his 2 interceptions made a big difference. This is tough to call but with the addition of a Texas pass-rush this looks like a likely Texas win.

At the end of the day I have trouble finding ways for Oklahoma to score that don’t result from fantastic field position granted by defense and special teams. I guess we’ll have to examine those to see how this will play out…

How about those Cowboys?

It’s time to talk about your Dallas Cowboys. I say your because I gave up Dallas fandom after the last superbowl win (1995, incidentally, also the last Dallas playoff win unless I’m mistaken). I grew less enamored with pro football for a brief period but I stand by that choice one hundred percent. The hiring of Barry Switzer alone should have driven away all the cowboy fans, or at least warned them, if not the decade and a half of Jerry Jones incompetence that followed it. Now I find the Cowboys to be a hateable franchise with unlikable players and staff.

As it is, I can’t help but be fairly invested in the Cowboys for a few reasons. First is that they are the most prominent local pro team and consequently are on television every Sunday. Second is that I watch football frequently with my pal Nathan and he’s a Cowboys fan. I enjoy taking shots at Dallas and Tony Romo and casting aspersions on the quality of person who might root for the Cowboys but I feel the ‘boys are beginning to get a bum rep.

They are 2-2 with losses to undefeated Denver on the road and the powerful looking New York Giants. Both of these games were winnable and featured poor 2nd halves by Tony Romo. It’s partly because these games were close that Dallas is getting so much criticism. The perception is that they have as much talent as anyone and are blowing it with sloppy play. Tony Romo is being chided as someone who can’t win the big game and Roy Williams as a prima donna.

Both of those criticisms are actually pretty fair, I would admit, but there is a deeper issue with this team that comes back to the real reason for the Cowboys failure to win a superbowl in the salary cap era…Jerry Jones.

Jerry Jones is in love with a man named Jason Garrett. Jason Garrett is a young man who has been charged with coordinating the Dallas offensives in their contests this season. Unless I’m missing something, which is more than possible, Jason Garrett is the type of coach who has a system he wants to run and he’ll assemble his pieces into that puzzle however best they fit. Allow me to demonstrate using my common sense powers. To begin with, what weapons does Dallas have to work with on offense?

1). A big, powerful Offensive line: These guys are all large and a handful to deal with in the running game. Flozelle Adams comes and goes as a dominant pass-blocking left tackle and generally has some trouble with speed rushers but when it comes to moving forward this unit is good.

2). 2 upper-tier Tight ends: Martellus Bennet is a good run-blocker and very solid receiving option. Jason Whitten is a good blocker, excellent receiving option and one of the best all around Tight ends in the known football world.

3). A stable of very good Running backs: They have power runner Marion Barber, great all-around back Tashard Choice, and home-run hitter Felix Jones. That’s 3 guys who could start and be excellent in all phases of the game.

4). Tony Romo: Romo is great on the run as an improvisational guy and a very good talent overall. He could really burn teams in the right system.

Now, the weaknesses:

1). Pass protection from the O-line: They can actually be very solid and held back a Giants D-line that is excellent in getting after the quarterback. Frankly, this line isn’t very consistent. Flozelle Adams has had big trouble, as previously noted, with speed rushers. I think, given the opportunity to bang head every week, they might enjoy an identity as a bruising run-blocking team.

2). The Receivers: They lost TO, who was a very good receiver if nothing else. Now they have some mediocre possesion guys and a couple of downfield targets in Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. Neither of these are guys who you want to throw to 10-15 times per game. They are limited in functionality.

3). Tony Romo: Whatever he may or may not become, he is not currently a Manning/Brees/Brady type guy who you want to build your offense around. Or if he is, he needs better pass protection and receivers to work with.

Now, given all those pieces, what would be the ideal type of offense to run? Well, whatever that might be Garret has chosen to run a Steve-Spurrier style scheme built around Romo throwing the ball 30-40 times per game and a short game featuring misdirection with draws, counters and screens.

When Dallas runs the counter, draw or screen they have a lot of success. These are excellent plays in general that Dallas can execute very well, but given the team’s strengths to feature a pass-first offense that features the running game as a constraint option is frankly stupid. The screen, draw and, to a lesser extent, the counter are all plays that are designed to punish a team for selling out against what a team does best. What Dallas does best are these constraint plays, they are averaging 6 yards per rush right now. That number even includes rushes made by Tony Romo. Dallas ran the ball 7 times in the 2nd half against Denver despite holding a lead until the 4rth quarter. 7 times. Stupid.

Perhaps Tony Romo will always fail in big games and I was the first to decry his performance against the Giants and didn’t fail to notice him missing receivers against Denver. But Jason Garrett is not putting him in a position to be successful. There wouldn’t be anything wrong with his scheme if he was coordinating the New England Patriots but the Dallas Cowboys have very different personnel.

Given their strengths a much more obvious scheme would feature the same draws, counters and screens built around a power-running game with drive-blocking and play-action passes with Romo rolling out to find his tight ends or hitting Roy Williams or Patrick Crayton shooting downfield. This team is perfectly built for this traditional style offense. I love the spread and passing as much as anyone but this team has great talent that simply isn’t built for that style.

On defense they have a very solid squad that played well against Denver and the other games I’ve seen this season. There isn’t anything wrong here and Wade Phillips knows what he’s doing with these guys. If they can change their identity on offense (probably too late) and create a system that makes sense then maybe we can see Tony Romo become comfortable enough to overcome the hump. In the meantime, they are wasting talent. Of course, that’s just fine with me I hate them anyways.