Saturday, April 3, 2010
New uses
Because I'm of limited savvy in blogging I'm using this site as a place to post images so I can transfer them for posts over at barking carnival.
Monday, January 25, 2010
New schemes and new places
This may be my last column as the assistant to the VP of Common Sense on this page. From now on I will be writing Daily columns on events and themes in the World of Texas Sports on barkingcarnival.com by all means check it out. You will find me there under the assumed name "Nickel Rover" as well as some colorful and insightful commentary about Texas sports from other writers. You can also find blogs for other teams there including the tortillaretort which I have referenced here recently.
As my last post here I want to go back into that topic which has had so much to do with Texas offensive production in the last few years. The running game.
Texas has been basing their offense in the zone running game since part-way through 2003. With Vince Young it was a devastating because Vince provided the ultimate backside threat for teams. If you tried to stop the blocked run you were leaving yourself vulnerable to Vince Young taking off and getting loose in your secondary, a terrible possibility.
So the inside-zone was the base play for achieving those scenarios. Then Colt McCoy replaced Vince Young and the offensive transformation began. The inside-zone was far less useful with Colt because he wasn’t nearly as dangerous keeping the ball and the coaches didn’t want him to have to keep it because it put him at risk and potentially distracted from his talents in the passing game.
So OC Davis made the switch to the outside zone as the primary play because it allowed them to keep the same blocking system and could be run out of the 3 WR, 1 TE formations, or the 4 WR formations. Then things broke down. First Jamaal Charles left school early and the running game was revealed as a collection of solid blocking efforts that were just enough to spring the fastest player on the field loose but not a lesser player.
They never switched out of basing in the zone-running game but Greg Davis tried to add other stuff to give the Longhorns some options when teams like OU would just shut down the running game. However, the personnel wasn’t really suited for it and the execution was frequently terrible except against tired 2nd half defenses.
So, we come to 2010. Texas has a new quarterback, 3 new starters on the OL, sophomore running back and lots of young receivers. Greg Davis has a pretty consistent passing game scheme that has proven to be excellent over the last several years. His problem has been finding a running game system that holds up and can be adapted to the strengths and weaknesses of the team in a given year.
Well, last year I argued that they should use the inside zone. Early this offseason I was expecting them to stay with the outside zone and practice it harder hoping that the replacement of Chris Hall with David Snow would result in success. However, upon examination of the Greg Davis passing game scheme it becomes apparent that it’s most effective and coherent part of the offense. Yet it takes a lot of practice time to build the necessary timing and recognition with the quarterbacks and receivers.
The zone running game is similarly stringent upon having tons of practice repetitions. You can’t have the zone as a part of your running game at the College level and feature other running plays and a passing game like the one Davis uses. Something will suffer, and Davis has chosen with his personnel (and I can only assume practice time) for that to be the running game.
So, I have a solution. I think Texas should abandon the zone-running game that they helped launch into prominence with Vince Young and start over. Texas is producing great, big pass-blocking lineman, spread quarterbacks and spread receivers. So they should feature a running game that can be played in spread formations and not rely on the quarterback running. With that in mind, I present the following base play, it’s a trap play with origins in the Wing T formations of yesteryear (before Darrel Royal even) that was originally run with a fullback. On a texas fan thread I encountered a coach saying that Texas should run the “run-and-shoot” offense, which is another old offense you can find remnants of in most modern schemes. I’m not necessarily entirely sold on this suggestion but I do think the trap play should be incorporated as a mainstay in the Texas offense because it can be run from the shotgun and it fits the current personnel well.
I call it, the Von Trap Family series:
Trap plays work to create down-blocking angles in the middle of the line typically by pulling the left guard and allowing the defensive end on the other side of the line to come free. The guard can then broadside that end away from the play. Allow me to demonstrate.
First we have the power-trap play.
What’s good about the trap-plays is that it creates favorable angles for the offensive lineman to attack defenders. The Left tackle can just block the end across from him further in the direction that end would typically be racing towards. The Left guard will pull to the right where the left end has been left unblocked. He will then nail the end and drive him away from the action.
The Center attacks the defensive tackle to his left and pushes him away from the path of the running back. The tight end, having left the end across from him alone will advance to the 2nd level aiming for the weakside linebacker but he’ll typically block whoever gets in the way. The right guard will chip the defensive tackle towards the Right tackle and advance to the middle linebacker.
The running back should have a big hole between the Center and right guard to advance through and then he can read the action from there. The safeties are up to him.
All these plays are drawn against the 4-3 under front but can be adapted to face other fronts. In these we can see that the center must make a downblock on the nose tackle. With Hall this was still doable because the angle was good, with David Snow all the more so.
Now, if the play is successful in gashing the defense up the middle for yards it sets up a series of pass plays that are already within the Texas arsenal:
If they move in a linebacker instead of covering the slot receiver they are vulnerable to the play-action bubble screen. Or just the bubble screen:
If you throw this to Marquise Goodwin in that scenario good things can happen as we saw against Alabama.
Similarly if they drop the free safety into the box to help against the run they leave themselves vulnerable to deep play action passes.
Now the Free safety has been drawn in too close and the left corner has no help as the receiver runs a deep post. Garret Gilbert throws it over their heads…touchdown. Or maybe the quarterback just finds someone else like the tight end running vertical or the X receiver on the right, or whatever other routes Texas runs on the play. I won’t pretend I put much thought into the routes other than the post that the safety has left open, but the tight end running vertical keeps the other safety from stopping the deep post without helping against the tight end.
The Von-Trap can also be run with 4 wide receivers provided that the defense moves a linebacker out to line up on the receiver. If he doesn’t than the offense should be throwing anyways.
The blocking angles aren’t as great here though so it’s useful to have another play for the 4-WR offense to employ. I recommend one that Texas might more freely use with a better center in the middle of the field. The normal shotgun play, the running back draw.
The tackles both start moving laterally as though they were in pass protection. This allows the defensive ends to run upfield and take themselves out of the play. The left guard gets some help from the Center in moving the tackle to the left and then the Center advances against the linebacker. The right guard follows the lead of the tackles and just seals off the other tackle. The quarterback has to sell the play like he’s looking to pass before handing off to the running back who can probably shoot up the middle between the center’s block and the right guards’. The lineman can also line up in pass protection stances to help sell the pass.
I like this trap play because it features down-blocking (which is easier for big guys like Huey, Hix, or some of the other newly acquired recruits) and it’s easy to work out ways to run it without in the shotgun formations Texas uses to the extent that I was able to invent it myself just adapting the play from the run-and-shoot scheme. However, there are a number of other running schemes that can, and should be implemented with the offense in lieu of a zone-running game that Texas has shown little ability to execute.
As my last post here I want to go back into that topic which has had so much to do with Texas offensive production in the last few years. The running game.
Texas has been basing their offense in the zone running game since part-way through 2003. With Vince Young it was a devastating because Vince provided the ultimate backside threat for teams. If you tried to stop the blocked run you were leaving yourself vulnerable to Vince Young taking off and getting loose in your secondary, a terrible possibility.
So the inside-zone was the base play for achieving those scenarios. Then Colt McCoy replaced Vince Young and the offensive transformation began. The inside-zone was far less useful with Colt because he wasn’t nearly as dangerous keeping the ball and the coaches didn’t want him to have to keep it because it put him at risk and potentially distracted from his talents in the passing game.
So OC Davis made the switch to the outside zone as the primary play because it allowed them to keep the same blocking system and could be run out of the 3 WR, 1 TE formations, or the 4 WR formations. Then things broke down. First Jamaal Charles left school early and the running game was revealed as a collection of solid blocking efforts that were just enough to spring the fastest player on the field loose but not a lesser player.
They never switched out of basing in the zone-running game but Greg Davis tried to add other stuff to give the Longhorns some options when teams like OU would just shut down the running game. However, the personnel wasn’t really suited for it and the execution was frequently terrible except against tired 2nd half defenses.
So, we come to 2010. Texas has a new quarterback, 3 new starters on the OL, sophomore running back and lots of young receivers. Greg Davis has a pretty consistent passing game scheme that has proven to be excellent over the last several years. His problem has been finding a running game system that holds up and can be adapted to the strengths and weaknesses of the team in a given year.
Well, last year I argued that they should use the inside zone. Early this offseason I was expecting them to stay with the outside zone and practice it harder hoping that the replacement of Chris Hall with David Snow would result in success. However, upon examination of the Greg Davis passing game scheme it becomes apparent that it’s most effective and coherent part of the offense. Yet it takes a lot of practice time to build the necessary timing and recognition with the quarterbacks and receivers.
The zone running game is similarly stringent upon having tons of practice repetitions. You can’t have the zone as a part of your running game at the College level and feature other running plays and a passing game like the one Davis uses. Something will suffer, and Davis has chosen with his personnel (and I can only assume practice time) for that to be the running game.
So, I have a solution. I think Texas should abandon the zone-running game that they helped launch into prominence with Vince Young and start over. Texas is producing great, big pass-blocking lineman, spread quarterbacks and spread receivers. So they should feature a running game that can be played in spread formations and not rely on the quarterback running. With that in mind, I present the following base play, it’s a trap play with origins in the Wing T formations of yesteryear (before Darrel Royal even) that was originally run with a fullback. On a texas fan thread I encountered a coach saying that Texas should run the “run-and-shoot” offense, which is another old offense you can find remnants of in most modern schemes. I’m not necessarily entirely sold on this suggestion but I do think the trap play should be incorporated as a mainstay in the Texas offense because it can be run from the shotgun and it fits the current personnel well.
I call it, the Von Trap Family series:
Trap plays work to create down-blocking angles in the middle of the line typically by pulling the left guard and allowing the defensive end on the other side of the line to come free. The guard can then broadside that end away from the play. Allow me to demonstrate.
First we have the power-trap play.
What’s good about the trap-plays is that it creates favorable angles for the offensive lineman to attack defenders. The Left tackle can just block the end across from him further in the direction that end would typically be racing towards. The Left guard will pull to the right where the left end has been left unblocked. He will then nail the end and drive him away from the action.
The Center attacks the defensive tackle to his left and pushes him away from the path of the running back. The tight end, having left the end across from him alone will advance to the 2nd level aiming for the weakside linebacker but he’ll typically block whoever gets in the way. The right guard will chip the defensive tackle towards the Right tackle and advance to the middle linebacker.
The running back should have a big hole between the Center and right guard to advance through and then he can read the action from there. The safeties are up to him.
All these plays are drawn against the 4-3 under front but can be adapted to face other fronts. In these we can see that the center must make a downblock on the nose tackle. With Hall this was still doable because the angle was good, with David Snow all the more so.
Now, if the play is successful in gashing the defense up the middle for yards it sets up a series of pass plays that are already within the Texas arsenal:
If they move in a linebacker instead of covering the slot receiver they are vulnerable to the play-action bubble screen. Or just the bubble screen:
If you throw this to Marquise Goodwin in that scenario good things can happen as we saw against Alabama.
Similarly if they drop the free safety into the box to help against the run they leave themselves vulnerable to deep play action passes.
Now the Free safety has been drawn in too close and the left corner has no help as the receiver runs a deep post. Garret Gilbert throws it over their heads…touchdown. Or maybe the quarterback just finds someone else like the tight end running vertical or the X receiver on the right, or whatever other routes Texas runs on the play. I won’t pretend I put much thought into the routes other than the post that the safety has left open, but the tight end running vertical keeps the other safety from stopping the deep post without helping against the tight end.
The Von-Trap can also be run with 4 wide receivers provided that the defense moves a linebacker out to line up on the receiver. If he doesn’t than the offense should be throwing anyways.
The blocking angles aren’t as great here though so it’s useful to have another play for the 4-WR offense to employ. I recommend one that Texas might more freely use with a better center in the middle of the field. The normal shotgun play, the running back draw.
The tackles both start moving laterally as though they were in pass protection. This allows the defensive ends to run upfield and take themselves out of the play. The left guard gets some help from the Center in moving the tackle to the left and then the Center advances against the linebacker. The right guard follows the lead of the tackles and just seals off the other tackle. The quarterback has to sell the play like he’s looking to pass before handing off to the running back who can probably shoot up the middle between the center’s block and the right guards’. The lineman can also line up in pass protection stances to help sell the pass.
I like this trap play because it features down-blocking (which is easier for big guys like Huey, Hix, or some of the other newly acquired recruits) and it’s easy to work out ways to run it without in the shotgun formations Texas uses to the extent that I was able to invent it myself just adapting the play from the run-and-shoot scheme. However, there are a number of other running schemes that can, and should be implemented with the offense in lieu of a zone-running game that Texas has shown little ability to execute.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Looking ahead to 2010: Offense
The biggest question mark heading into the 2010 Longhorn football campaign would have regarded the growth and play of likely starter Garrett Gilbert. Then he was thrust into the National championship game and as Nathan Gaskey quickly pointed out, “he’ll never be under more pressure than that for the rest of his college career.”
Additionally, Garrett played pretty well and delivered a few strikes I’m not sure Colt was ever capable of. That said, I don’t expect Gilbert to be better than Colt next year but he has some arm strength and downfield accuracy that Colt didn’t, which was unsurprising because I have seen them throw back to back in open practices.
The Austin American Statesman has a muddled, uninformed piece up about question marks heading into next season but here I can give you a better presentation of what the team is looking for in spring practices and for the fall squad. Today the focus will be on offense, we’ll start with that ghost that has haunted Texas since Vince’s departure with nothing more than a temporary answer when Charles ascended to brilliance:
The Running game:
This is a focus every off season and many of the other team questions will come into play here. From a strategic level, with a first year starter at quarterback and the team’s leading receiver graduating coupled with a poor running game the last few seasons, having an effective running game in 2010 will be a priority.
Texas could not make teams pay for pinching off the short-pass offense employed with Colt with the lowlight being Nebraska’s Defense dominating both the short passing game and the running game by using 6 defensive backs and stuffing the Longhorn running plays with 1 linebacker and 4 defensive lineman.
The problems with the running game have been run over by me, the coaching staff and tons of commentators over and over again. Essentially I think it boils down to these:
1). Bad implementation of scheme: Texas installed the Outside zone-stretch as the base offensive play ala the Indianapolis Colts. They don’t block it well and don’t run it well. The running backs don’t read the creases well and don’t allow the blocks to set up or else the blocks fail in ways that zone-blocking should never fail. For instance, you should never have a negative play on a zone run, the whole scheme is supposed to prevent that very occurrence.
The outside zone, while an excellent base play that can be run with 3 wide receivers (like Texas likes to employ) demands a lot of repetitions to be run properly so the above mentioned mistakes don’t happen.
The West-Coast passing game that Texas used with Colt McCoy also demanded a lot of repetitions to be run properly because the receiver routes are timing based. Colt would read the defense and then make a timed throw into the soft parts of the coverage. It was run excellently, I don’t know if I’ve seen a better executed short-passing game in college football. However, such a scheme necessarily limits the amount of time that can be spent on the running game, and Texas chose the very running scheme that demands the most practice time. I can’t say for sure that Texas didn’t have time to run the zone-blocking AND West Coast passing attack in practice but I do know that the execution of the running game was poor.
2). Personnel: Chris Hall was moved to Center, I can only assume, for his speed in open space and experience making line calls. However, he was hopelessly weak at the point of attack and was frequently driven into the backfield. The rest of the line wasn’t necessarily suited for zone blocking and seemed chosen for experience and skill in pass protection.
Also extremely important is the Tight End position. The outside zone is heavily dependent on the tight end making a key block on the defensive end. If that block fails the play, designed to get outside quickly, is going to go badly quickly because that’s one of the first blocks the runner reads.
The Tight End is basically essential for an offense like Texas’ to have balance in the running game and passing game because it allows for base running and passing plays to be run from the same formations.
Next year Texas will have a very different line because 3 starters are graduating. The remaining 2, Michael Huey and Kyle Hix, are not particularly suited for zone blocking which best utilizes quick moving lineman who can make lateral movements.
Texas Tech blogger dedfischer once wrote on tortillaretort.com, “if your center isn’t a weakness, it’s a strength.” David Snow seems a lock to take on the job of starting center (since he did when Chris Hall went down in the National Title) and he qualifies for that condition. Thus, the addition of a tight end from one of a million scholarship possibilities, the inclusion of Snow on the line, and a possible departure from relying as much on the short passing game improve Texas chances at running the outside zone stretch as their base play.
While we’re here lets move on to
The Offensive Line:
Again, from the Right guard to the slot receiver everyone on the team is gone. That’s center Chris Hall (3 year starter), Left Guard Charlie Tanner (3 year starter) and the all important Left Tackle Adam Ulatoski (3 years at LT one at RT all starting).
Truly the only one I think Texas is likely to miss immediately is Ulatoski. He wasn’t an elite talent for the position but he was highly skilled in the fundamentals and most of McCoy’s problems from blind side rushers were either missed calls that led to unblocked rushers or someone like the Aggy defensive end Von Miller who disgraced just about everyone last season. His return next season is about as exciting as our chances at economic recovery, I dread the Aggy game next season.
However the future is bright because Texas has a few players with Left Tackle talent. There is mulleted back-up Luke Poehlman who is currently undersized and about whom I have no real opinion other than that I’m not sure Gilbert wants to see a mullet coming from the back of the helmet responsible for covering his blindside. Then we have the inexperienced talents Garret Porter and Mason Walters.
Porter I’ve seen play basketball in person and he has the mobility, long arms and lack of body fat you like to see from a Left Tackle. He redshirted this season however. Mason Walters played Center in high school and would have been playing guard as a sub this season but was injured. Given Texas’ recruitment of the no. 1 Center prospect in Texas (from my very own Cedar Park High School) and Snow’s presence I’m expecting Walters to see time at Left Tackle eventually because that’s where you would expect an offense to place its most valuable talent.
Starting Right Tackle Hix would be a terrible Left Tackle because he doesn’t move well laterally against speed rushers and his backup, Britt Mitchell, couldn’t beat out Mullet man to be back-up left tackle for Ulatoski so I’m forced to assume he’s rubbish in pass protection as well.
Center will be David Snow, who looked great as a freshman and mixed as a sophomore with his low being the Red River Shootout when OU’s McCoy nearly broke him down. At any rate, he’ll be an improvement over Chris Hall whatever Davis chooses to do.
Replacing Charlie Tanner is an undertaking that would seem to have been simple but failed to happen for 3 seasons. He was a very solid player but not the kind of elite talent Texas can field with their resource base. My bet is on 5 star Senior Tray Allen taking over there. Allen was considered one of the best lineman of his recruiting class and a potential Left Tackle extraordinaire. He never caught on but showed flashes of brilliance in practices, scrimmages and garbage time when moved to guard. A line with Walters, Allen, Snow, Huey and then Hix would be an athletic upgrade over last year’s group but will require seasoning to reach the same levels of pass protection. However, that is an acceptable timeline because Gilbert and the skill players are all young as well.
In conclusion, pass protection may be dicey on the edge as Walters or whoever has to learn the ropes but against the kind of interior pass rush that really bothered Texas last year there should actually be improvement with Hall being replaced by Snow.
With the foundation in place for Gilbert’s offense we can move on to:
The Skill Players:
Brandon Collins was a likely candidate to be the no. 2 receiver this season behind Shipley in replacement of Cosby. Then he was ruled academically ineligible, then he was arrested for armed robbery and that was it. Dan Buckner was statistically the no. 2 receiver in the offense this season and then he was arrested in college station and transferred. Well then.
Marquise Goodwin surprised a lot beginning the season as a track player who might earn a spot on the team and finishing as the leading receiver in the OU game and 2nd receiver in the National Championship. His value just in running the WR screen makes him a starter in my mind. He went for 70 yards against Alabama just with 3 screen pass receptions.
Malcolm Williams has been and will be until potentially fall camp, the most talented receiver on the squad. He’s a downfield threat because of his size and speed and when he catches the short routes he can accelerate past guys in a hurry. His blocking on screens and running plays is also invaluable. However, he drops the ball. He’s like the Terrel Owens of the Longhorns without the bad locker room stuff or frequent pass opportunities.
After those two I’m less certain about the others. Kirkendoll was great in games that didn’t pit him against Texas-level talent and John Chiles is just learning the position but hasn’t shown the work ethic and consistency. I think the staff decided a while ago that Chiles was one of the more explosive talents and have continued to employ him under that assumption but he hasn’t shown it on the field.
There are other guys that haven’t seen the field like DeSean Hales, a shifty former running back who got good reports from bowl practices, and Greg Timmons who is a 6-3 guy with good fundamentals. Incoming however are Mike Davis and Chris Jones, 2 highly valued recruits, and Darius White the number one receiver in the national recruiting class. Nothing is set in stone here really.
At running back there is a huge collection of talent. Chris Whaley was last year’s prize RB recruit but unless he’s a game-breaking talent I think Tre Newton will hold down the job of starting running back because he knows how to find the crease in the zone running game, he is an excellent pass-blocker, and he can receive coming out of the backfield.
DJ Monroe would be a great third down back if he had those latter 2 skills. Nevertheless his speed on sweeps makes him a valuable weapon to be used like Percy Harvin in the offense next year.
Additionally, Garrett played pretty well and delivered a few strikes I’m not sure Colt was ever capable of. That said, I don’t expect Gilbert to be better than Colt next year but he has some arm strength and downfield accuracy that Colt didn’t, which was unsurprising because I have seen them throw back to back in open practices.
The Austin American Statesman has a muddled, uninformed piece up about question marks heading into next season but here I can give you a better presentation of what the team is looking for in spring practices and for the fall squad. Today the focus will be on offense, we’ll start with that ghost that has haunted Texas since Vince’s departure with nothing more than a temporary answer when Charles ascended to brilliance:
The Running game:
This is a focus every off season and many of the other team questions will come into play here. From a strategic level, with a first year starter at quarterback and the team’s leading receiver graduating coupled with a poor running game the last few seasons, having an effective running game in 2010 will be a priority.
Texas could not make teams pay for pinching off the short-pass offense employed with Colt with the lowlight being Nebraska’s Defense dominating both the short passing game and the running game by using 6 defensive backs and stuffing the Longhorn running plays with 1 linebacker and 4 defensive lineman.
The problems with the running game have been run over by me, the coaching staff and tons of commentators over and over again. Essentially I think it boils down to these:
1). Bad implementation of scheme: Texas installed the Outside zone-stretch as the base offensive play ala the Indianapolis Colts. They don’t block it well and don’t run it well. The running backs don’t read the creases well and don’t allow the blocks to set up or else the blocks fail in ways that zone-blocking should never fail. For instance, you should never have a negative play on a zone run, the whole scheme is supposed to prevent that very occurrence.
The outside zone, while an excellent base play that can be run with 3 wide receivers (like Texas likes to employ) demands a lot of repetitions to be run properly so the above mentioned mistakes don’t happen.
The West-Coast passing game that Texas used with Colt McCoy also demanded a lot of repetitions to be run properly because the receiver routes are timing based. Colt would read the defense and then make a timed throw into the soft parts of the coverage. It was run excellently, I don’t know if I’ve seen a better executed short-passing game in college football. However, such a scheme necessarily limits the amount of time that can be spent on the running game, and Texas chose the very running scheme that demands the most practice time. I can’t say for sure that Texas didn’t have time to run the zone-blocking AND West Coast passing attack in practice but I do know that the execution of the running game was poor.
2). Personnel: Chris Hall was moved to Center, I can only assume, for his speed in open space and experience making line calls. However, he was hopelessly weak at the point of attack and was frequently driven into the backfield. The rest of the line wasn’t necessarily suited for zone blocking and seemed chosen for experience and skill in pass protection.
Also extremely important is the Tight End position. The outside zone is heavily dependent on the tight end making a key block on the defensive end. If that block fails the play, designed to get outside quickly, is going to go badly quickly because that’s one of the first blocks the runner reads.
The Tight End is basically essential for an offense like Texas’ to have balance in the running game and passing game because it allows for base running and passing plays to be run from the same formations.
Next year Texas will have a very different line because 3 starters are graduating. The remaining 2, Michael Huey and Kyle Hix, are not particularly suited for zone blocking which best utilizes quick moving lineman who can make lateral movements.
Texas Tech blogger dedfischer once wrote on tortillaretort.com, “if your center isn’t a weakness, it’s a strength.” David Snow seems a lock to take on the job of starting center (since he did when Chris Hall went down in the National Title) and he qualifies for that condition. Thus, the addition of a tight end from one of a million scholarship possibilities, the inclusion of Snow on the line, and a possible departure from relying as much on the short passing game improve Texas chances at running the outside zone stretch as their base play.
While we’re here lets move on to
The Offensive Line:
Again, from the Right guard to the slot receiver everyone on the team is gone. That’s center Chris Hall (3 year starter), Left Guard Charlie Tanner (3 year starter) and the all important Left Tackle Adam Ulatoski (3 years at LT one at RT all starting).
Truly the only one I think Texas is likely to miss immediately is Ulatoski. He wasn’t an elite talent for the position but he was highly skilled in the fundamentals and most of McCoy’s problems from blind side rushers were either missed calls that led to unblocked rushers or someone like the Aggy defensive end Von Miller who disgraced just about everyone last season. His return next season is about as exciting as our chances at economic recovery, I dread the Aggy game next season.
However the future is bright because Texas has a few players with Left Tackle talent. There is mulleted back-up Luke Poehlman who is currently undersized and about whom I have no real opinion other than that I’m not sure Gilbert wants to see a mullet coming from the back of the helmet responsible for covering his blindside. Then we have the inexperienced talents Garret Porter and Mason Walters.
Porter I’ve seen play basketball in person and he has the mobility, long arms and lack of body fat you like to see from a Left Tackle. He redshirted this season however. Mason Walters played Center in high school and would have been playing guard as a sub this season but was injured. Given Texas’ recruitment of the no. 1 Center prospect in Texas (from my very own Cedar Park High School) and Snow’s presence I’m expecting Walters to see time at Left Tackle eventually because that’s where you would expect an offense to place its most valuable talent.
Starting Right Tackle Hix would be a terrible Left Tackle because he doesn’t move well laterally against speed rushers and his backup, Britt Mitchell, couldn’t beat out Mullet man to be back-up left tackle for Ulatoski so I’m forced to assume he’s rubbish in pass protection as well.
Center will be David Snow, who looked great as a freshman and mixed as a sophomore with his low being the Red River Shootout when OU’s McCoy nearly broke him down. At any rate, he’ll be an improvement over Chris Hall whatever Davis chooses to do.
Replacing Charlie Tanner is an undertaking that would seem to have been simple but failed to happen for 3 seasons. He was a very solid player but not the kind of elite talent Texas can field with their resource base. My bet is on 5 star Senior Tray Allen taking over there. Allen was considered one of the best lineman of his recruiting class and a potential Left Tackle extraordinaire. He never caught on but showed flashes of brilliance in practices, scrimmages and garbage time when moved to guard. A line with Walters, Allen, Snow, Huey and then Hix would be an athletic upgrade over last year’s group but will require seasoning to reach the same levels of pass protection. However, that is an acceptable timeline because Gilbert and the skill players are all young as well.
In conclusion, pass protection may be dicey on the edge as Walters or whoever has to learn the ropes but against the kind of interior pass rush that really bothered Texas last year there should actually be improvement with Hall being replaced by Snow.
With the foundation in place for Gilbert’s offense we can move on to:
The Skill Players:
Brandon Collins was a likely candidate to be the no. 2 receiver this season behind Shipley in replacement of Cosby. Then he was ruled academically ineligible, then he was arrested for armed robbery and that was it. Dan Buckner was statistically the no. 2 receiver in the offense this season and then he was arrested in college station and transferred. Well then.
Marquise Goodwin surprised a lot beginning the season as a track player who might earn a spot on the team and finishing as the leading receiver in the OU game and 2nd receiver in the National Championship. His value just in running the WR screen makes him a starter in my mind. He went for 70 yards against Alabama just with 3 screen pass receptions.
Malcolm Williams has been and will be until potentially fall camp, the most talented receiver on the squad. He’s a downfield threat because of his size and speed and when he catches the short routes he can accelerate past guys in a hurry. His blocking on screens and running plays is also invaluable. However, he drops the ball. He’s like the Terrel Owens of the Longhorns without the bad locker room stuff or frequent pass opportunities.
After those two I’m less certain about the others. Kirkendoll was great in games that didn’t pit him against Texas-level talent and John Chiles is just learning the position but hasn’t shown the work ethic and consistency. I think the staff decided a while ago that Chiles was one of the more explosive talents and have continued to employ him under that assumption but he hasn’t shown it on the field.
There are other guys that haven’t seen the field like DeSean Hales, a shifty former running back who got good reports from bowl practices, and Greg Timmons who is a 6-3 guy with good fundamentals. Incoming however are Mike Davis and Chris Jones, 2 highly valued recruits, and Darius White the number one receiver in the national recruiting class. Nothing is set in stone here really.
At running back there is a huge collection of talent. Chris Whaley was last year’s prize RB recruit but unless he’s a game-breaking talent I think Tre Newton will hold down the job of starting running back because he knows how to find the crease in the zone running game, he is an excellent pass-blocker, and he can receive coming out of the backfield.
DJ Monroe would be a great third down back if he had those latter 2 skills. Nevertheless his speed on sweeps makes him a valuable weapon to be used like Percy Harvin in the offense next year.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The Best football programs in the country.
There have been some tremendous shake-ups in the world of college football over the last month which have forced me to apply my reasoning power as the assistant to the VP of Common Sense.
First Urban Meyer retired…then he came back. Then there was speculation that Will Muschamp would leave Texas for X job. Pete Carrol abandoned USC like an unwanted growing puppy and that snake Lane Kiffin slithered in. Now there is the question of who takes the Tennessee job, whether Muschamp stays at UT or goes to Tennessee and it all amounts to one big question for me:
Which NCAA football program is in the best shape right now? Which power programs are in the best shape to make attempts on the ultimate goal in college football? Winning money, er, I mean championships. So I’m doing this the only way I know how…a top 15 list. Top 15 programs in terms of position to win heading into the new decade.
Honorable Mentions:
West Virginia, always have a chance in the Big East.
Nebraska: Coming back but have poor recruiting base and compete with OU and Texas every year.
Oregon St: also on the up and up but competing with big time powers.
California: Let’s be real Chad, if they were going to do anything it would have happened already.
Auburn: As long as they have OC Gus Malzahn I think they’ll be competitive. I still think Chizik is a poor coach overall though.
15). Boise State.
They narrowly edge out TCU for “team that can beat anyone in one game but will never have a chance to win the championship.” That’s probably not accurate, if there hadn’t been 2 undefeated superpowers this season one of Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise St. would have been in. Ultimately it’s a long shot though. So despite the wonderful performance of Boise State in recent years and strong state of the program, they are on the outside looking in.
14). Virgina Tech:
Because of Frank Beamer’s coaching of special teams, defense, and option football Virgina Tech consistenly affords themselves the chance to be good every year and compete in the BCS picture. Recruiting has been solid and development even better. Additionally, they are a powerhouse for where they are.
13). Michigan
They look to be in terrible shape and Rich Rodriguez is on the hot seat. Also, the main city of Michigan, Detroit, is a virtual ghost town that resembles Manhattan in “Escape from New York” more and more each day. So why are they so high? For one, Michigan is a traditional powerhouse with a great resource base. Recruiting is down a ways (again, dealing with a terrible state) but I have a lot of faith in the following:
a). Rich Rodriguez and his staff: He has one of the best strength and conditioning coaches in the country. They used to transform guys at West Virgina. Additionally, they are converting the school from having big, clunky pro-style offenses to having fast zone-option teams. Eventually I think they get it together.
b). The potential of Michigan in the Big 10. I think the Big 10 has become wildly underrated, but it’s still an easier place to thrive than the SEC I must admit.
c). Even if Rodriguez is gone the school still has some money and resources to pluck someone. I think it’s likely they will reach the top 10 again. It would help if the auto industry could get their act together.
12). Notre Dame
Another classic Northern power weakened by poor coaching choices and a questionable recruiting base. It’s simply really hard to pluck guys from SEC country and Texas has a lot to offer but you are picking behind Texas, OU, LSU and other Big 12 schools for a lot of these kids. Nevertheless, when you have resources like Michigan or Notre Dame you can still compete for recruits and coaches. I think the hiring of Brian Kelly is a good one for providing Notre Dame with a coach who can win with normal college players.
Charlie Weiss ran an NFL offense and had terrible defensive squads. He required the best lineman, quarterbacks and receivers (and he got some) to execute the offense effectively enough to dominate at the college level. Brian Kelly runs a spread offense, knows the Ohio river valley recruiting territory, the Texas grounds, and has a much simpler and better understanding of how to run scheme at the college level.
11). Oregon
Oregon has that awesome deal with Nike that provides them with new uniforms all the time, national attention, and money. Coach Chip Kelly is another spread guru who has constructed some tremendous offenses at Oregon as OC and now Head Coach.
The recruiting base is pretty solid with California a modern untapped Gold mine since USC can’t take all the talent and there aren’t many other huge powers in the region to compete with given UCLA’s decline and California’s impotence. Take a look at the players Oregon has put in the NFL the past few years and you’ll get a sense of the talent level of their squads. This season saw Oregon in the Rose Bowl and I don’t think that will be a short-lived phenomenon.
10). Miami
They haven’t done a ton recently save for some early season success but they are getting back to big time Florida recruiting and have really loaded up on recent recruiting classes. Head Coach Randy Shannon is everything that the old U wasn’t. Talent mixed in with a blue collar attitude, discipline and respect. The old U were undisciplined, disrespectful, and supremely talented and competitive, perhaps nowhere more than their own practices.
Anyways, in the modern College world, a Florida school that can do things right is a top 10 program.
9). Georgia
And here comes the SEC. Georgia is one of the more effective recruiting schools in the country, living off of the fat of the land down in the south. With all that talent they can’t help but knock over some people from time to time, and the defensive coaching has been very good.
However, I have about as much respect for Mark Richt as a offensive mind as I do Greg Davis at Texas. Provided with great talent they can out execute the lesser squads but get in worlds of trouble against defenses that can match up on their athletes or expose weak points. Anyways, they reach the top 10 despite Mark Richt and being in the SEC because they are talented enough year in and out to have a shot at the title. They would do well to get off Florida’s bad list though.
8). Penn State
I’m guessing Joe Paterno coaches at Penn State until he is dead since he’s been there something like 50 years. The state of Penn st. football has been about the same for decades. Paterno’s tenure there has no equivalent unless you can imagine if Darrel K. Royal still coached at Texas.
Given that fact, Penn State is often slow to adjust to modern schemes and trends but usually on the cusp. They build fantastic linebackers and they’ve been close to national championships in recent years. They’re adoption of the spread offense paired with their traditional Cover-3 style defense dominated by fierce linebackers earns them a spot on in the top 10 but their presence in the Big 10 (again an easier conference to navigate given the right situation) pushes them over Miami and Georgia.
7). Oklahoma
Oklahoma was probably at or near the top of this list at the beginning of the decade. Stoops defenses were terrorizing the Big 12, recruiting was fantastic and Texas looked like they didn’t know how to defend against the body shots, much less throw a counterpunch.
Then Big Game Bob started losing big games. Coaches worked out how to attack their aggressive defense and the offenses were usually short of being the total package. Quarterback play has been poor in years not featuring Nate Heupel and Sam Bradford (Jason White’s Heisman was a bad joke) and they have lost their stranglehold on Dallas recruiting which has vaulted Texas above them.
Worst of all, Mack Brown has won 4 of 5 games in the Cotton Bowl and recent Big 12 success has come through the back door despite losses to Texas rather than as a result of Crimson dominance. All that said, OU is still pulling in great players. Stoops defenses have never shocked people like in 2000 but have still been very good, and their no-huddle offense from last year set the trend nationally. If not for Texas…
6). LSU
They have a recent championship and tons of great recruiting from Louisiana (where they are often uncontested) and the Houston and East Texas area. Les Miles is something less than a genius and his division will often be more than he can overcome but the program has proven they can backdoor their way into national championships with superior talent and the recognition of being an SEC squad.
On offense they are trying to run some spread schemes but have faltered due to Ryan Perriloux turning out to be some kind of menace and no emergence as of yet from Russel Shephard.
On defense they’ve been somewhat underachieving given their talent level and the level of difficulty they face in bad SEC offenses. They are a great coach short from being a top 5 program.
5). The Ohio State University
Jim Tressel can’t quite give up his uber-conservative play-calling which has hamstrung the potential of his offenses against talented defenses that know what’s coming. However his recruiting and use of Terrelle Pryor and Troy Smith before demonstrate the beginning of an understanding of how to break away from his predictable power-run based offense towards a more versatile and unstoppable unit.
On defense they have virtually no peer. They produce NFL defenders every season and show inventiveness on defense you wouldn’t expect from watching the play-calling on offense. Sweater-vest has also shocked Texas in all of their engagements demonstrating in each occasion how Texas is best defended while also showing up with offensive game plans that took Texas by surprise.
In national championships they have looked weak and unimaginative on offense and have come up short time and time again. Still, Tressel defense, plus Ohio recruiting, plus Pryor puts them in great shape for the new decade.
4). Florida
Only no. 4 you say? Ridiculous, they are pulling in a ridiculous recruiting class, have won 2 titles in 4 years and retain Urban Meyer and his crazy spread option. Florida has a long term recruiting base, staff vision for implementing the state’s talent. Urban Meyer has shown talent before for tweaking his offense to suit his quarterbacks and a knack for burning defenses in big games. The overall emphasis on speed at Florida has proven the stupid “you can’t run that spread stuff against SEC speed” talk to be idiotic. Not only did he do so immediately, with a non-running quarterback, but he then built the fastest team in the conference.
But, it’s unclear if Meyer can hang around with his health issues. Is he really back? Can he handle the responsibilities and work habits that got Florida this far? He just lost some more valuable staff pieces, including their defensive coordinator who was behind the units that really won those 2 championships for the Gators, this after losing the offensive coordinator the following year. As we saw with Carrol’s USC, the loss of coordinators and staff adds up eventually. It’s hard to rebuild the chemistry and philosophy with revolving doors in important spots. Definitely a lot of work for a coach with health problems, not to mention his stiff competition week to week and the rise of another program you know is coming soon.
3). USC
What? Let me start with this. Lane Kiffin is a snake. The way he sold himself and what he was about to Tennessee reeked of arrogance, lack of appreciation for anything not-USC, and overall entitlement from the Coach’s son. I don’t think he’s a phenomenal schemer (in the football sense that is), overall teacher, or person.
But he’s a great mastermind. He surrounded himself with a great staff at Tennessee hiring Ed Orgeron (recruiting wizard, d-line mastermind and former head coach) and papa Monte Kiffin (tampa-2 defensive mastermind). Actually, let me review that part in parenthesis, this man invented the modern tampa-2 defense. This is the defense that Tony Dungy has used at Tampa Bay (obviously), Indianapolis and was copied by coordinators Lovie Smith (Bears defense, you heard much about it?) and Mike Tomlin at Minnesota and later Pittsburgh. It’s one of the most dominant defensive schemes in the NFL today. Monte Kiffin made it and now he’s making his son look good.
Now the word on the street is that Lane has added former USC great Norm Chow to the fold as offensive coordinator. Chow is another big time pro-style xs and os guy from the West Coast school of thought (short, timed passes. The stuff Greg Davis runs at Texas).
Essentially, little Kiffin has assembled an NFL coaching staff at a location where a team can actually run pro-style schemes and get away with it. California, as I’ve mentioned, has an enormous recruiting base and little competition for USC from other major programs. I don’t think another program will have the pedigree and genius of Kiffin’s staff here and they all seem intent on re-living the glory days of the early Pete Carrol era.
That’s one problem here, I’m not sure if all this “remember the good old days” stuff will fly trying to recreate something that has already past. Another problem is that Carrol probably left for a reason. USC could be facing major NCAA sanctions. Also, you would hope that Lane would be on the receiving end of some justice.
2). Alabama
Alabama is back. Nick Saban is exercising his Napoleon syndrome in a conference where he won’t likely lack for competitors to challenge him and bring out his obsessive work demons. The state of Alabama is pretty recruit rich and there is enough going on there now to draw other southern and Texas recruits to Saban’s fold.
The coaching there is good on both sides of the ball. The defense is sophisticated, tricky and well executed while the offense is simple and brutal. They’ll always be tough to beat and as they continue to draw Saban recruits it won’t get easier. Very little is going bad here. It’s easier to maintain a strong running game system and good defense than a West Coast offense year in and year out. Also, despite his slithering past I think Saban is going to be here for some time. So why is Alabama only number two?
Well first of all, the difference between Saban and Jim Tressel is not great. If you look at Saban’s record in some big games you won’t see the fiery destroyer of worlds the media hype would have you believe. His defense is great, like Tressel’s, but not necessarily as versatile as the numbers suggest. Texas almost torched them with a freshman quarterback thrown into the title game after one of the greatest quarterbacks ever was injured.The overall plan and execution against reeling Florida has covered up a 7 yard per play average by the Florida offense that came short in the red zone from blowing up the scoreboard. The offense, while well coached and consistently good, will never be like the 2005 Texas offense, or the 2004-05 USC offenses, or the better Florida offenses. In college football, it’s hard to be king if you aren’t bringing the biggest gun. Also, they have fewer overall resources than at number 1.
1). Texas
Surprised? Mack Brown has built something that will last and a program that he’ll have a tough time giving up before a few more years with all the talent and potential.
When it comes to recruiting, Texas has been able to select their talent from arguably the deepest state in the country and then mold it with some of the finer coaches available (except on O-line what are they doing?). With the recent success in the Dallas area Texas has overcome the stigma there of being racist and combined with their success in the annual Dallas game the last 5 years and the growth of Central Texas football has Texas in great position in this state.
The overall coaching of the talent is fantastic. The offenses have been successfully built around quarterback strengths (even if it took some time) and have consistently pounded the lesser competition while showing just enough versatility in recent big games.
The defense is now in the hands of one of the better defensive teachers and minds in the game (all those SEC schools are constantly trying to lure him away) and the long-term stability of the program has been placed in his hands.
Also the money, it’s real good at Texas right now. So let’s review Texas’ situation in the upcoming decade:
1). Reeling Rivals: Tommy Tuberville is a great coach and Texas Tech is a looming danger next season. But the year to year danger from the Mike Leach offenses and the tremendous hassle of trying to prepare for that offense every year was a big burden and an easy stumbling block. Well that’s gone now. Texas A&M only looks good against Texas and Mike Sherman’s project wavers from week to week. Oklahoma is reeling. They’ll be good, for sure, but they’ve been put in their place.
2). Great recruiting. This is just a constant.
3). Staff stability. If there’s one thing we’ve seen about Greg Davis it’s that he isn’t going anywhere. Duane Akina withstood a demotion to keep coaching up first rate defensive backs in Austin and we discussed Muschamp.
It’s easy to foresee how there will be seasons in the Big 12 like 2009 where Texas has great pieces in place and can roll over the rest of these squads. Easier, I have argued, then it is for any other school in the nation. We’ll see if I’m right.
First Urban Meyer retired…then he came back. Then there was speculation that Will Muschamp would leave Texas for X job. Pete Carrol abandoned USC like an unwanted growing puppy and that snake Lane Kiffin slithered in. Now there is the question of who takes the Tennessee job, whether Muschamp stays at UT or goes to Tennessee and it all amounts to one big question for me:
Which NCAA football program is in the best shape right now? Which power programs are in the best shape to make attempts on the ultimate goal in college football? Winning money, er, I mean championships. So I’m doing this the only way I know how…a top 15 list. Top 15 programs in terms of position to win heading into the new decade.
Honorable Mentions:
West Virginia, always have a chance in the Big East.
Nebraska: Coming back but have poor recruiting base and compete with OU and Texas every year.
Oregon St: also on the up and up but competing with big time powers.
California: Let’s be real Chad, if they were going to do anything it would have happened already.
Auburn: As long as they have OC Gus Malzahn I think they’ll be competitive. I still think Chizik is a poor coach overall though.
15). Boise State.
They narrowly edge out TCU for “team that can beat anyone in one game but will never have a chance to win the championship.” That’s probably not accurate, if there hadn’t been 2 undefeated superpowers this season one of Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise St. would have been in. Ultimately it’s a long shot though. So despite the wonderful performance of Boise State in recent years and strong state of the program, they are on the outside looking in.
14). Virgina Tech:
Because of Frank Beamer’s coaching of special teams, defense, and option football Virgina Tech consistenly affords themselves the chance to be good every year and compete in the BCS picture. Recruiting has been solid and development even better. Additionally, they are a powerhouse for where they are.
13). Michigan
They look to be in terrible shape and Rich Rodriguez is on the hot seat. Also, the main city of Michigan, Detroit, is a virtual ghost town that resembles Manhattan in “Escape from New York” more and more each day. So why are they so high? For one, Michigan is a traditional powerhouse with a great resource base. Recruiting is down a ways (again, dealing with a terrible state) but I have a lot of faith in the following:
a). Rich Rodriguez and his staff: He has one of the best strength and conditioning coaches in the country. They used to transform guys at West Virgina. Additionally, they are converting the school from having big, clunky pro-style offenses to having fast zone-option teams. Eventually I think they get it together.
b). The potential of Michigan in the Big 10. I think the Big 10 has become wildly underrated, but it’s still an easier place to thrive than the SEC I must admit.
c). Even if Rodriguez is gone the school still has some money and resources to pluck someone. I think it’s likely they will reach the top 10 again. It would help if the auto industry could get their act together.
12). Notre Dame
Another classic Northern power weakened by poor coaching choices and a questionable recruiting base. It’s simply really hard to pluck guys from SEC country and Texas has a lot to offer but you are picking behind Texas, OU, LSU and other Big 12 schools for a lot of these kids. Nevertheless, when you have resources like Michigan or Notre Dame you can still compete for recruits and coaches. I think the hiring of Brian Kelly is a good one for providing Notre Dame with a coach who can win with normal college players.
Charlie Weiss ran an NFL offense and had terrible defensive squads. He required the best lineman, quarterbacks and receivers (and he got some) to execute the offense effectively enough to dominate at the college level. Brian Kelly runs a spread offense, knows the Ohio river valley recruiting territory, the Texas grounds, and has a much simpler and better understanding of how to run scheme at the college level.
11). Oregon
Oregon has that awesome deal with Nike that provides them with new uniforms all the time, national attention, and money. Coach Chip Kelly is another spread guru who has constructed some tremendous offenses at Oregon as OC and now Head Coach.
The recruiting base is pretty solid with California a modern untapped Gold mine since USC can’t take all the talent and there aren’t many other huge powers in the region to compete with given UCLA’s decline and California’s impotence. Take a look at the players Oregon has put in the NFL the past few years and you’ll get a sense of the talent level of their squads. This season saw Oregon in the Rose Bowl and I don’t think that will be a short-lived phenomenon.
10). Miami
They haven’t done a ton recently save for some early season success but they are getting back to big time Florida recruiting and have really loaded up on recent recruiting classes. Head Coach Randy Shannon is everything that the old U wasn’t. Talent mixed in with a blue collar attitude, discipline and respect. The old U were undisciplined, disrespectful, and supremely talented and competitive, perhaps nowhere more than their own practices.
Anyways, in the modern College world, a Florida school that can do things right is a top 10 program.
9). Georgia
And here comes the SEC. Georgia is one of the more effective recruiting schools in the country, living off of the fat of the land down in the south. With all that talent they can’t help but knock over some people from time to time, and the defensive coaching has been very good.
However, I have about as much respect for Mark Richt as a offensive mind as I do Greg Davis at Texas. Provided with great talent they can out execute the lesser squads but get in worlds of trouble against defenses that can match up on their athletes or expose weak points. Anyways, they reach the top 10 despite Mark Richt and being in the SEC because they are talented enough year in and out to have a shot at the title. They would do well to get off Florida’s bad list though.
8). Penn State
I’m guessing Joe Paterno coaches at Penn State until he is dead since he’s been there something like 50 years. The state of Penn st. football has been about the same for decades. Paterno’s tenure there has no equivalent unless you can imagine if Darrel K. Royal still coached at Texas.
Given that fact, Penn State is often slow to adjust to modern schemes and trends but usually on the cusp. They build fantastic linebackers and they’ve been close to national championships in recent years. They’re adoption of the spread offense paired with their traditional Cover-3 style defense dominated by fierce linebackers earns them a spot on in the top 10 but their presence in the Big 10 (again an easier conference to navigate given the right situation) pushes them over Miami and Georgia.
7). Oklahoma
Oklahoma was probably at or near the top of this list at the beginning of the decade. Stoops defenses were terrorizing the Big 12, recruiting was fantastic and Texas looked like they didn’t know how to defend against the body shots, much less throw a counterpunch.
Then Big Game Bob started losing big games. Coaches worked out how to attack their aggressive defense and the offenses were usually short of being the total package. Quarterback play has been poor in years not featuring Nate Heupel and Sam Bradford (Jason White’s Heisman was a bad joke) and they have lost their stranglehold on Dallas recruiting which has vaulted Texas above them.
Worst of all, Mack Brown has won 4 of 5 games in the Cotton Bowl and recent Big 12 success has come through the back door despite losses to Texas rather than as a result of Crimson dominance. All that said, OU is still pulling in great players. Stoops defenses have never shocked people like in 2000 but have still been very good, and their no-huddle offense from last year set the trend nationally. If not for Texas…
6). LSU
They have a recent championship and tons of great recruiting from Louisiana (where they are often uncontested) and the Houston and East Texas area. Les Miles is something less than a genius and his division will often be more than he can overcome but the program has proven they can backdoor their way into national championships with superior talent and the recognition of being an SEC squad.
On offense they are trying to run some spread schemes but have faltered due to Ryan Perriloux turning out to be some kind of menace and no emergence as of yet from Russel Shephard.
On defense they’ve been somewhat underachieving given their talent level and the level of difficulty they face in bad SEC offenses. They are a great coach short from being a top 5 program.
5). The Ohio State University
Jim Tressel can’t quite give up his uber-conservative play-calling which has hamstrung the potential of his offenses against talented defenses that know what’s coming. However his recruiting and use of Terrelle Pryor and Troy Smith before demonstrate the beginning of an understanding of how to break away from his predictable power-run based offense towards a more versatile and unstoppable unit.
On defense they have virtually no peer. They produce NFL defenders every season and show inventiveness on defense you wouldn’t expect from watching the play-calling on offense. Sweater-vest has also shocked Texas in all of their engagements demonstrating in each occasion how Texas is best defended while also showing up with offensive game plans that took Texas by surprise.
In national championships they have looked weak and unimaginative on offense and have come up short time and time again. Still, Tressel defense, plus Ohio recruiting, plus Pryor puts them in great shape for the new decade.
4). Florida
Only no. 4 you say? Ridiculous, they are pulling in a ridiculous recruiting class, have won 2 titles in 4 years and retain Urban Meyer and his crazy spread option. Florida has a long term recruiting base, staff vision for implementing the state’s talent. Urban Meyer has shown talent before for tweaking his offense to suit his quarterbacks and a knack for burning defenses in big games. The overall emphasis on speed at Florida has proven the stupid “you can’t run that spread stuff against SEC speed” talk to be idiotic. Not only did he do so immediately, with a non-running quarterback, but he then built the fastest team in the conference.
But, it’s unclear if Meyer can hang around with his health issues. Is he really back? Can he handle the responsibilities and work habits that got Florida this far? He just lost some more valuable staff pieces, including their defensive coordinator who was behind the units that really won those 2 championships for the Gators, this after losing the offensive coordinator the following year. As we saw with Carrol’s USC, the loss of coordinators and staff adds up eventually. It’s hard to rebuild the chemistry and philosophy with revolving doors in important spots. Definitely a lot of work for a coach with health problems, not to mention his stiff competition week to week and the rise of another program you know is coming soon.
3). USC
What? Let me start with this. Lane Kiffin is a snake. The way he sold himself and what he was about to Tennessee reeked of arrogance, lack of appreciation for anything not-USC, and overall entitlement from the Coach’s son. I don’t think he’s a phenomenal schemer (in the football sense that is), overall teacher, or person.
But he’s a great mastermind. He surrounded himself with a great staff at Tennessee hiring Ed Orgeron (recruiting wizard, d-line mastermind and former head coach) and papa Monte Kiffin (tampa-2 defensive mastermind). Actually, let me review that part in parenthesis, this man invented the modern tampa-2 defense. This is the defense that Tony Dungy has used at Tampa Bay (obviously), Indianapolis and was copied by coordinators Lovie Smith (Bears defense, you heard much about it?) and Mike Tomlin at Minnesota and later Pittsburgh. It’s one of the most dominant defensive schemes in the NFL today. Monte Kiffin made it and now he’s making his son look good.
Now the word on the street is that Lane has added former USC great Norm Chow to the fold as offensive coordinator. Chow is another big time pro-style xs and os guy from the West Coast school of thought (short, timed passes. The stuff Greg Davis runs at Texas).
Essentially, little Kiffin has assembled an NFL coaching staff at a location where a team can actually run pro-style schemes and get away with it. California, as I’ve mentioned, has an enormous recruiting base and little competition for USC from other major programs. I don’t think another program will have the pedigree and genius of Kiffin’s staff here and they all seem intent on re-living the glory days of the early Pete Carrol era.
That’s one problem here, I’m not sure if all this “remember the good old days” stuff will fly trying to recreate something that has already past. Another problem is that Carrol probably left for a reason. USC could be facing major NCAA sanctions. Also, you would hope that Lane would be on the receiving end of some justice.
2). Alabama
Alabama is back. Nick Saban is exercising his Napoleon syndrome in a conference where he won’t likely lack for competitors to challenge him and bring out his obsessive work demons. The state of Alabama is pretty recruit rich and there is enough going on there now to draw other southern and Texas recruits to Saban’s fold.
The coaching there is good on both sides of the ball. The defense is sophisticated, tricky and well executed while the offense is simple and brutal. They’ll always be tough to beat and as they continue to draw Saban recruits it won’t get easier. Very little is going bad here. It’s easier to maintain a strong running game system and good defense than a West Coast offense year in and year out. Also, despite his slithering past I think Saban is going to be here for some time. So why is Alabama only number two?
Well first of all, the difference between Saban and Jim Tressel is not great. If you look at Saban’s record in some big games you won’t see the fiery destroyer of worlds the media hype would have you believe. His defense is great, like Tressel’s, but not necessarily as versatile as the numbers suggest. Texas almost torched them with a freshman quarterback thrown into the title game after one of the greatest quarterbacks ever was injured.The overall plan and execution against reeling Florida has covered up a 7 yard per play average by the Florida offense that came short in the red zone from blowing up the scoreboard. The offense, while well coached and consistently good, will never be like the 2005 Texas offense, or the 2004-05 USC offenses, or the better Florida offenses. In college football, it’s hard to be king if you aren’t bringing the biggest gun. Also, they have fewer overall resources than at number 1.
1). Texas
Surprised? Mack Brown has built something that will last and a program that he’ll have a tough time giving up before a few more years with all the talent and potential.
When it comes to recruiting, Texas has been able to select their talent from arguably the deepest state in the country and then mold it with some of the finer coaches available (except on O-line what are they doing?). With the recent success in the Dallas area Texas has overcome the stigma there of being racist and combined with their success in the annual Dallas game the last 5 years and the growth of Central Texas football has Texas in great position in this state.
The overall coaching of the talent is fantastic. The offenses have been successfully built around quarterback strengths (even if it took some time) and have consistently pounded the lesser competition while showing just enough versatility in recent big games.
The defense is now in the hands of one of the better defensive teachers and minds in the game (all those SEC schools are constantly trying to lure him away) and the long-term stability of the program has been placed in his hands.
Also the money, it’s real good at Texas right now. So let’s review Texas’ situation in the upcoming decade:
1). Reeling Rivals: Tommy Tuberville is a great coach and Texas Tech is a looming danger next season. But the year to year danger from the Mike Leach offenses and the tremendous hassle of trying to prepare for that offense every year was a big burden and an easy stumbling block. Well that’s gone now. Texas A&M only looks good against Texas and Mike Sherman’s project wavers from week to week. Oklahoma is reeling. They’ll be good, for sure, but they’ve been put in their place.
2). Great recruiting. This is just a constant.
3). Staff stability. If there’s one thing we’ve seen about Greg Davis it’s that he isn’t going anywhere. Duane Akina withstood a demotion to keep coaching up first rate defensive backs in Austin and we discussed Muschamp.
It’s easy to foresee how there will be seasons in the Big 12 like 2009 where Texas has great pieces in place and can roll over the rest of these squads. Easier, I have argued, then it is for any other school in the nation. We’ll see if I’m right.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Championship game thoughts
Final thoughts on 2009-10
I hinted that Texas had the weapons to burn Alabama but I was suprised at how easily they were almost able to pull it off. If not for...
1). What if Colt hadn’t been hurt?
Ugh, you couldn’t have written a more terrible and undeserving end to Colt’s time at Texas. Injured 5 plays into the game while 2-2 and leading the offense down the field. There were a few points here where you Texas has no one to blame for themselves for what happened. For instance, all year I said “Why aren’t they playing Gilbert more?” He should have been rotated into meaningful series against teams like Baylor or other weaker conference foes. If he isn’t redshirting and he is the real backup then he needs real game experience. Instead we had to watch him grow up over the course of a national championship game.
Secondly, the play call there was bad. I understand the appreciation Greg Davis has for the speed option and its usefulness in getting the ball to the running back on the perimeter. Our scouting of Alabama said they were slow and vulnerable to our speed on the edge and the sweeps and Receiver tunnel screens demonstrated that point really well. However, as dedfischer on tortillaretort.com pointed out,
“A stretch option play with reach blocking? Really? I can’t recall for sure, and feel free to correct me, but weren’t you always coached on defense to stretch the option out? I swear I think that’s right. Think about that for a minute and you’ll find the epitome of why Texas lost this game.”
This play has been a terrible one for 2 seasons for Texas. The speed option is a good play used well by other teams but Texas never blocks it effectively and 9 times out of 10 it puts Colt in a no-win situation where he can pitch the ball for a huge loss or take a big hit for a smaller loss. Go back and watch the OU game and you’ll see a promising Texas drive started by a turnover killed by a speed option run for a 9 yard loss.
It was a fluke hit that happened to hurt Colt where hundreds of hits before hadn’t, but really that’s the chance you take when your offense is dependent on one quarterback. I talked about this with my first post on this blog when I argued that some teams in the NFL should try treating quarterback like another position (acceptable to see injury) and run an option offense.
Now that I’ve said all that let me also add one more caveat before making a big point about the Colt injury, it’s impossible to know if Texas would have won. Alabama ran the ball very effectively and only slowed down in the 3rd quarter when protecting a lead. You have to conclude that Alabama is the better team and worthy champion. Texas wasn’t prepared for a Colt injury and were risking it all the time by making the offense Colt-dependent, having shaky offensive-line play, being Shipley dependent, and calling that stupid speed option play in the National Championship.
So what if Colt hadn’t been hurt? I think Texas wins that game. Alabama’s defense, I pondered the day of the game and moreso as the game went on, was an inferior unit to the one Texas faced at the Cotton Bowl in October. Their safeties were slow and couldn’t turn their hips in coverage. Remember when Texas A&M went 5-wide and picked on Blake Gideon, Brewster and the linebackers in coverage? Texas did that hardcore in the 2nd half. Alabama was lining up safeties on Jordan Shipley, a stupid strategy that was quickly resulting in big points from the Texas offense.
Alabama’s running game was effective, but you can run for 200 yards without scoring much just as you can throw for 200 yards without scoring much. It all adds up the same. Alabama’s passing game was just about the most helpless one Texas faced all season. They were no better equipped to handle Kindle and the Texas pass rush than they were to hold off an elephant stampede. Greg McElroy, one of the worst quarterbacks I saw this entire season, completed 6 of 11 passes and was sacked 5 times. In other words, when Alabama threw the ball one of 2 things happened and they each happened about evenly, McElroy would complete a pass or be sacked.
This is particularly relevant given Texas’ early special teams’ success and field position. If McCoy could have led Texas to an early lead and forced McElroy to have to throw the ball Texas could have won in a route. At the least it’s hard to see how Alabama could have scored enough to match Texas because they couldn’t handle Texas’ speed at running back, wide receiver, or defensive line. I think this game could have played out either like the Utah game last year when Alabama got down early and blown out, or Texas may have won a game that was scored in the 20s and 30s where Alabama is out of their element.
However at the end of the day, Texas’ wide receivers had 17 drops, Gilbert had to pull a super-gritty performance out with no experience, and the offensive line gave up a game-costing sack/fumble when they had 5 lineman to block 3 rushers because of a miscommunication. Also, Alabama had great defensive schemes, strong play from the front 7, and easily the best running game Texas faced all year. They are a worthy champion.
2). The Saban love-fest is stupid. Look, the guy lost to Utah in a bowl game and easily could have lost this game had he not been lucky enough to see the winningest quarterback in NCAA history go down at the onset of the game. All the attention paid to his 2nd Championship distracted from the fact that it was Alabama’s championship (the other came at SEC rival LSU). All of this is the media’s fault, Saban was quick to credit Alabama and their football program and players. He’s a little uptight, defensive-minded napoleon syndrome, SEC coach who gets a mad amount of attention for what amounts to being one of a several great coaches in the NCAA right now.
3). The shovel-pass; while a complete disaster, questionable, and might have cost the game, should not be laid at the coach’s feet as the reason why Texas lost. I heard some idiot on the radio blaming Mack Brown for the whole game for calling the shovel pass and accusing Mack of blaming it’s failure on Gilbert. First of all, that blame was never placed by Mack. If anyone was to be blamed it was DJ Monroe for playing hot potato with the pass. The story here is this, when you have a freshman making a throw under pressure to another freshman calamity is possible. You can say that it was too much of a risk, but as Mack correctly stated, the shovel pass is one of the lowest risk plays you can run. This was the equivalent of running a running back draw on 3rd and 15. It usually doesn’t work but it has the potential and it’s safer than forcing a throw downfield. Mack was searching for some momentum to head into halftime with. Maybe it was unnecessary and clearly it was disastrous, you can blame the execution or reliance on freshman on the coaches if you want, but the reasoning was sound and the risk was very low despite the results.
4). Texas loses a lot from this team, this was the big title shot. Alabama might be in position to repeat next year, Trent Richardson is coming back, McElroy will be back but they’d be just as good with anyone back there who can hand a ball off or stare at a wide receiver on a play-action pass.
Namely, Texas loses the class of defensive players that took over 2 years ago with Muschamp and transformed this unit into a nationally elite unit. Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, Roddrick Muckelroy, Earl Thomas are leaving, each the best at his respective level of defense. Lamarr Houston was one of the best defensive tackles in the whole nation this season. He had 10 tackles against Alabama, including a sack and a few tackles for loss. If not for Suh and Gerald McCoy he would have received credit as being an elite tackle.
On offense a generation of lineman are passing on along with the legendary Colt-Jordan connection. Chris Hall went down and the game and was replaced with the superior David Snow, Adam Ulatoski was a worthy player who is graduating. Charlie Tanner was a questionable talent who worked his way into a starting role and held on by knowledge and seniority. The next generation line could be considerably more talented as whole, though it will certainly struggle some next year.
We’ll talk soon about the holes and question marks for the 2010 unit but I’ll finish today with Garret Gilbert. My only concern heading into the 2nd half of the championship game was that Texas be able to break 10 for pride’s sake and that Gilbert not be scarred for life and crippled as a quarterback. Instead he pulled out what was almost a legendary performance that could have rivaled Vince Young’s Rose Bowl masterpieces and lost at the end on a play that wasn’t his fault. He’s a keeper for sure and he can burn teams downfield with his arm. I’m welcoming the Garret Gilbert era with arms open wide, apparently so are Mack Brown and Greg Davis as it’s rumoured that Mack Brown plans to stick around 3 more years (the exact remaining eligibility of Gilbert at Texas) and has been waiting with Greg for Gilbert “their whole careers”. It’s also rumoured that this time line is acceptable to Muschamp…thank God.
I hinted that Texas had the weapons to burn Alabama but I was suprised at how easily they were almost able to pull it off. If not for...
1). What if Colt hadn’t been hurt?
Ugh, you couldn’t have written a more terrible and undeserving end to Colt’s time at Texas. Injured 5 plays into the game while 2-2 and leading the offense down the field. There were a few points here where you Texas has no one to blame for themselves for what happened. For instance, all year I said “Why aren’t they playing Gilbert more?” He should have been rotated into meaningful series against teams like Baylor or other weaker conference foes. If he isn’t redshirting and he is the real backup then he needs real game experience. Instead we had to watch him grow up over the course of a national championship game.
Secondly, the play call there was bad. I understand the appreciation Greg Davis has for the speed option and its usefulness in getting the ball to the running back on the perimeter. Our scouting of Alabama said they were slow and vulnerable to our speed on the edge and the sweeps and Receiver tunnel screens demonstrated that point really well. However, as dedfischer on tortillaretort.com pointed out,
“A stretch option play with reach blocking? Really? I can’t recall for sure, and feel free to correct me, but weren’t you always coached on defense to stretch the option out? I swear I think that’s right. Think about that for a minute and you’ll find the epitome of why Texas lost this game.”
This play has been a terrible one for 2 seasons for Texas. The speed option is a good play used well by other teams but Texas never blocks it effectively and 9 times out of 10 it puts Colt in a no-win situation where he can pitch the ball for a huge loss or take a big hit for a smaller loss. Go back and watch the OU game and you’ll see a promising Texas drive started by a turnover killed by a speed option run for a 9 yard loss.
It was a fluke hit that happened to hurt Colt where hundreds of hits before hadn’t, but really that’s the chance you take when your offense is dependent on one quarterback. I talked about this with my first post on this blog when I argued that some teams in the NFL should try treating quarterback like another position (acceptable to see injury) and run an option offense.
Now that I’ve said all that let me also add one more caveat before making a big point about the Colt injury, it’s impossible to know if Texas would have won. Alabama ran the ball very effectively and only slowed down in the 3rd quarter when protecting a lead. You have to conclude that Alabama is the better team and worthy champion. Texas wasn’t prepared for a Colt injury and were risking it all the time by making the offense Colt-dependent, having shaky offensive-line play, being Shipley dependent, and calling that stupid speed option play in the National Championship.
So what if Colt hadn’t been hurt? I think Texas wins that game. Alabama’s defense, I pondered the day of the game and moreso as the game went on, was an inferior unit to the one Texas faced at the Cotton Bowl in October. Their safeties were slow and couldn’t turn their hips in coverage. Remember when Texas A&M went 5-wide and picked on Blake Gideon, Brewster and the linebackers in coverage? Texas did that hardcore in the 2nd half. Alabama was lining up safeties on Jordan Shipley, a stupid strategy that was quickly resulting in big points from the Texas offense.
Alabama’s running game was effective, but you can run for 200 yards without scoring much just as you can throw for 200 yards without scoring much. It all adds up the same. Alabama’s passing game was just about the most helpless one Texas faced all season. They were no better equipped to handle Kindle and the Texas pass rush than they were to hold off an elephant stampede. Greg McElroy, one of the worst quarterbacks I saw this entire season, completed 6 of 11 passes and was sacked 5 times. In other words, when Alabama threw the ball one of 2 things happened and they each happened about evenly, McElroy would complete a pass or be sacked.
This is particularly relevant given Texas’ early special teams’ success and field position. If McCoy could have led Texas to an early lead and forced McElroy to have to throw the ball Texas could have won in a route. At the least it’s hard to see how Alabama could have scored enough to match Texas because they couldn’t handle Texas’ speed at running back, wide receiver, or defensive line. I think this game could have played out either like the Utah game last year when Alabama got down early and blown out, or Texas may have won a game that was scored in the 20s and 30s where Alabama is out of their element.
However at the end of the day, Texas’ wide receivers had 17 drops, Gilbert had to pull a super-gritty performance out with no experience, and the offensive line gave up a game-costing sack/fumble when they had 5 lineman to block 3 rushers because of a miscommunication. Also, Alabama had great defensive schemes, strong play from the front 7, and easily the best running game Texas faced all year. They are a worthy champion.
2). The Saban love-fest is stupid. Look, the guy lost to Utah in a bowl game and easily could have lost this game had he not been lucky enough to see the winningest quarterback in NCAA history go down at the onset of the game. All the attention paid to his 2nd Championship distracted from the fact that it was Alabama’s championship (the other came at SEC rival LSU). All of this is the media’s fault, Saban was quick to credit Alabama and their football program and players. He’s a little uptight, defensive-minded napoleon syndrome, SEC coach who gets a mad amount of attention for what amounts to being one of a several great coaches in the NCAA right now.
3). The shovel-pass; while a complete disaster, questionable, and might have cost the game, should not be laid at the coach’s feet as the reason why Texas lost. I heard some idiot on the radio blaming Mack Brown for the whole game for calling the shovel pass and accusing Mack of blaming it’s failure on Gilbert. First of all, that blame was never placed by Mack. If anyone was to be blamed it was DJ Monroe for playing hot potato with the pass. The story here is this, when you have a freshman making a throw under pressure to another freshman calamity is possible. You can say that it was too much of a risk, but as Mack correctly stated, the shovel pass is one of the lowest risk plays you can run. This was the equivalent of running a running back draw on 3rd and 15. It usually doesn’t work but it has the potential and it’s safer than forcing a throw downfield. Mack was searching for some momentum to head into halftime with. Maybe it was unnecessary and clearly it was disastrous, you can blame the execution or reliance on freshman on the coaches if you want, but the reasoning was sound and the risk was very low despite the results.
4). Texas loses a lot from this team, this was the big title shot. Alabama might be in position to repeat next year, Trent Richardson is coming back, McElroy will be back but they’d be just as good with anyone back there who can hand a ball off or stare at a wide receiver on a play-action pass.
Namely, Texas loses the class of defensive players that took over 2 years ago with Muschamp and transformed this unit into a nationally elite unit. Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, Roddrick Muckelroy, Earl Thomas are leaving, each the best at his respective level of defense. Lamarr Houston was one of the best defensive tackles in the whole nation this season. He had 10 tackles against Alabama, including a sack and a few tackles for loss. If not for Suh and Gerald McCoy he would have received credit as being an elite tackle.
On offense a generation of lineman are passing on along with the legendary Colt-Jordan connection. Chris Hall went down and the game and was replaced with the superior David Snow, Adam Ulatoski was a worthy player who is graduating. Charlie Tanner was a questionable talent who worked his way into a starting role and held on by knowledge and seniority. The next generation line could be considerably more talented as whole, though it will certainly struggle some next year.
We’ll talk soon about the holes and question marks for the 2010 unit but I’ll finish today with Garret Gilbert. My only concern heading into the 2nd half of the championship game was that Texas be able to break 10 for pride’s sake and that Gilbert not be scarred for life and crippled as a quarterback. Instead he pulled out what was almost a legendary performance that could have rivaled Vince Young’s Rose Bowl masterpieces and lost at the end on a play that wasn’t his fault. He’s a keeper for sure and he can burn teams downfield with his arm. I’m welcoming the Garret Gilbert era with arms open wide, apparently so are Mack Brown and Greg Davis as it’s rumoured that Mack Brown plans to stick around 3 more years (the exact remaining eligibility of Gilbert at Texas) and has been waiting with Greg for Gilbert “their whole careers”. It’s also rumoured that this time line is acceptable to Muschamp…thank God.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Defense and Special teams, or How Texas wins the National Championship
You can read the scouts preview on ESPN.com now. It amounts to basically the same analysis provided here in regards to the Alabama Defense vs. the Texas offense. Unless Texas has some big wrinkles to throw off the ‘bama defenders or a new offensive line there probably won’t be much scoring by the good guys on Thursday.
Alabama’s offense, while not as adept at piling up points as Texas’, is ultimately more difficult to dominate. Power running is the name of the game but the passing game can punish you with play-action, the screen game, and a few very good targets. Basically, they have the one dimension that’s dominant, like Texas’ short passing game, but then effective constraint plays that prevent teams from loading up against Ingram whereas Texas has not consistently punished teams with the run or deep pass.
Let’s begin with Ingram. He racked up 1500 yards, 15 touchdowns, never fumbled and won the Heisman trophy as the best offensive player on a team whose success was built on defense. Now that this topic is up I might as well state that I believe that Gerhart was a better running back candidate and Suh the most dominant player of the finalists. McCoy had a strong year but was part of a team (McCoy-Shipley) that saw 12 wins mostly because of dominant defense. Tebow was put there more out of respect than for recognition of a particularly brilliant season, just another fantastic one.
Just as Texas will rely on Colt to carry the offense Alabama would prefer Ingram to put up a Heisman defense and leave the game out of McElroy’s hands. McElroy is a good player himself and threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Occasionally he would make downfield throws from play-action plays or deep throws with Maze and Julio Jones going high-low on the same side of the field. He wasn’t asked to make a lot of contested throws like Colt has made and hasn’t shown the ability if asked. Texas will try to ask him to win the game with dangerous throws against coverage as often as possible. The best way is with a lead, the more likely way is on third downs. Even in games where the run has been stalled Saban would call 35-40 running plays to speed the clock and protect McElroy.
Alabama’s offensive line is a run-blocking machine. They drive defenders off the ball and they can handle a good d-line. They ran the ball for at least 100 yards on every opponent except for Auburn. Florida gave up 251 rushing yards and was gashed over the course of the game, a bad indicator for the Texas line. In pass protection they are considerably weaker. The right tackle is a clear weakness and Left tackle hasn’t been sorted out either after they lost Andre Smith last year to the NFL.
Maze and Julio Jones are the major receivers to worry about and both put up just over 500 yards on the season. Maze is the faster, deep threat while Jones is a big physical receiver with good speed himself. Ingram is dangerous on screens and tight end Colin Peek is another valuable check down option that frustrates efforts to shut down the run.
Auburn loaded up to stop the run and found some real success but ultimately were actually defeated by McElroy. Florida attempted the same to find Alabama coming out in spread sets and throwing the ball on their vaunted secondary. Muschamp will surely learn the valuable lesson from that game and not assume that loading 8 men in the box will result in victory even if it stops Ingram.
Alabama has a great punt returner in Javier Arenas (ironically the man likely to be assigned to Jordan Shipley) and will be dangerous in the kicking game. Texas has all of its special teams’ stars healthy, off suspension or eligible as the case may be, and ready to go now. After a month to practice they should have been able to focus on correcting issues with kickoff coverage. Christian Scott is back on the team and will resume serving on kickoff coverage. With Scott, Vaccarro and Antwan Cobb Texas should be much better in coverage for this game.
With that overview let’s examine the crucial matchups:
1). Predator vs. Swat Team Member 4
Drew Davis has struggled in pass protection this season. He’s the right tackle for Alabama and now he’s heading to the urban jungle to deal with what he thinks is a major urban drug bust. Sergio Kindle has destroyed running plays this season by simply blowing into the backfield or catching guys from behind. It is my belief that Texas will utilize its 3-4 defense against Alabama at various points to disrupt blocking schemes and create particular matchups. In such scenarios Kindle typically lines up outside the right tackle and assaults him with the speed rush. If you’ve seen recent Cowboys games you likely have some grasp of what a player like DeMarcus Ware can do in a ball game. Kindle needs to have a game that draws comparisons to Ware because this is a matchup Texas can’t fail to exploit as the upside is turnovers and punts.
2). Texas D-line vs. Alabama O-line
Given the failures by teams to control the Alabama passing game while loading up against the run, along with Muschamp’s strategies in other games against power-running teams over the last few years, I predict that Texas will most likely face Ingram with an honest front (as many defenders as blockers) except for situational circumstances like 3rd and 1.
Texas has a 3-4 alignment with Alexander/Randall as nose tackle with Acho and Lamarr Houston as 5-tech defensive ends. This alignment caused big problems for Nebraska when they tried to deal with Acho inside or asked someone to reach block Houston in time before he wrecked everything. Penetration is always the best way to kill a running game but particularly for the Longhorns who don’t want Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho having to fight off blocks but instead chasing obvious pursuit angles on the runners. The ‘bama line is good and they get help from the tight end and fullback in various formations, but Muschamp will try to scheme favorable matchups for the d-lineman do more with less.
The team that performed best against Alabama this season, Tennessee, did so by containing the running game AND the passing game. So again it’s essential that Texas not have to load 8 defenders in the box against the run and be able to create pressure with 3-5 defenders and induce difficult throws against a great secondary. It’s also possible Texas will throw some big blitzes ala the Tech game blitzes that nearly ended Taylor Potts.
3). Earl Thomas vs. McElroy
Earl Thomas’ interception vs. Oklahoma State was a perfect example of what he offers on defense, a rover who understands the offenses intent and can get to the ball in a hurry. McElroy hasn’t really seen anything like him this season and could be baited into a trap. Here’s where the performance by the D-line really comes in, a few pressures on McElroy which lead him into throwing into a tight spot can turn into easy points with Thomas and the rest of this secondary. Field position and non-offensive points are crucial in a game like this so it’s important that Thomas get the better end of this matchup and be responsible for a turnover or two by jumping a route or closing in on an attempt. Also of note, Greg McElroy looks like kid Robin Williams from Jumanji before he go beat up outside his dad's shoe factory.
4). Special Teams vs. Field Position
Alabama has Javier Arenas, a good punt returner with 1 touchdown this season and negligible performance from their kick returns. Texas has Shipley, who has 2 punt return tds on the season, and a host of talented kick returners. Shipley can be effective there, as we’ve seen, but Goodwin had a monster return against A&M and Monroe contributed 2 more on the season. Texas gave up 12 points to Nebraska because of field position. The Nebraska offense was virtually ineffective except for getting 10 yards here or there and getting in field goal range. Texas, on the other side, had to drive the length of the field to get any points.
Pinning Alabama on kickoffs with good coverage and the rugby punt is the start. A special teams or defensive touchdown is almost essential, I believe, for Texas to win this game unless they are consistently creating fantastic field position for Texas. A few big plays to Shipley here and there are likely but multiple full-field drives I have trouble imagining unless Greg Davis has finally found the wrinkle that will make his offense game-planning proof. The decade’s evidence seems to suggest otherwise. No team has blocked more kicks this decade than Texas, now would be a good time for a timely reminder of what a special teams monster Texas can be. As my uncle Johnny suggested, “I think 20 wins it don’t you?” Yes, I do.
5). Texas’ Back 7 vs. the SEC
The Big 12 is built around spreading teams out and killing them in space or individual matchups with speed, precision, and option routes/runs. Alabama just knocks you over and takes your lunch. Consequently, Texas’ back 7 is built to handle running sideline to sideline and covering people. One advantage of this is Texas preponderance of excellent man-coverage defenders. The only way teams have been able to hurt Texas is by having enough skill players to force Texas to cover good players with linebackers or white safeties OR by having a running threat at quarterback. The former takes about 4 good receiving options.
Last year Texas’ linebackers were less practiced and well versed in stopping power plays. This year they’ve made big steps and it has certainly been a point of emphasis in bowl practices. The one place Texas might want a big, nasty defender instead of a Big 12 style guy is at Middle linebacker but you aren’t upgrading Roddrick Muckelroy inside the tackles against Ingram with anyone who has played at Texas in the last 10 years (as my all-decade team established).
In other news, McElroy isn’t much of a running threat, I don’t care about his little tight-walk scramble against Florida. If Greg is forced to do that against Texas he’ll get in trouble fast. Reeling Florida wasn’t ready but lightning won’t strike twice. Texas will be unafraid of matching up Julio Jones and Maze in man coverage. Alabama lines up in 3-wide sets frequently, which might match Chykie against Julio Jones, Curtis Brown vs. Maze and Aaron Williams vs. the slot or tight end. None of these are matchups Texas will be hesitant about. The cover-1 robber with Gideon in deep support and Earl roving the middle of the field can sneak 7 defenders in the box and man-up the receivers with the deepest corp of corners Alabama has likely faced save maybe for Florida. There will probably be some 2-deep man under as well perhaps with 3 safeties on the field and Thomas on the slot receiver.
This is a big opportunity for Big 12 style squad to face up to the SEC mythological giant and prove to be a more athletic and versatile product. Florida’s defense is fantastic but was missing their Kindle (Carlos Dunlap) and had a defensive coordinator interviewing for other jobs. I’m think speed wins round 2 against this bunch and Alabama fails to reach 20.
6). The Wildcard
Christian Scott didn’t make significant progress towards a degree and was ruled academically ineligible for the 2009 season. When exams ended in December Scott became eligible again due to his academic recovery. I thought it was most likely that Scott would supplant Gideon as the safety opposite little Earl at the season’s onset and there were reports from practices and the players that suggested Scott might be the most talented safety on the team. Scott is a much larger defender at 6-1 210 pounds than either Gideon or Thomas. He’s also faster than Gideon and one of the more rangy players on the team. When Gideon was knocked out of the Kansas game the previous season Scott came in and almost immediately knocked the offending Jayhawk out along with the ball.
He’s a downhill safety who can make big plays in the running game while providing a little more coverage range in the deep field. Texas will certainly use him for kickoff coverage and have left open the possibility of him playing safety regularly in the game.
When Texas is in the “big nickel” where Earl Thomas moves down to cover the slot receiver and Gideon and Nolan Brewster divide the deep field in 2-deep coverage it’s possible Muschamp will insert Scott in as one of those safeties and suddenly the big nickel becomes a more valuable option against Alabama. Or, if Scott entirely replaces Gideon from practice results Texas might add a better run defender and overall player to the starting eleven. Personally I think seeing him instead of Brewster in the big nickel is the most likely optimist view as Muschamp will be wary of using players that might succumb to play-action fakes. It’s late in the season to jump in as an every down player. Consider Scott a potential ace in the hole though, and the Championship game a potential coming out party.
Big Nickel
7). Hunter Lawrence vs. Leigh Tiffin
Hunter Lawrence has made 22 of 25 field goal attempts and is virtually automatic inside of 50 yards including a long of 49. He nailed a final second kick to seal a conference championship from 46 yards (that would be that Nebraska game) and has the ghosts of Ryan Bailey (actually on the bench), David Pino, Kris Stockton and Dusty Mangum watching over him.
Tiffin has made 29 of 33 attempts and has a long of 50 yards although he’s slightly less consistent inside of 50. He’s certainly a good kicker but it was a blocked kick that sealed the deal for Alabama late, not a Tiffin make.
Let me put it this way, would you rather have a guy name Leigh or a Texan named Hunter kicking the field goal to win a national championship for your team. Case closed.
So that’s it. If I’ve painted a bleak picture then don’t hurry to check how Vegas perceives this game because the general consensus is that Alabama has the better team. I like the Texas defense more but Alabama’s is certainly one of the better in the country. Texas has a more dangerous offense but Alabama’s is more consistent and difficult to totally shut down. Special teams and the ability to create turnovers however are a distinct advantage for Mack who fields a player with 8 interceptions and a pair of brothers whose presence seems to will the ball to the Texas side (Emmanuel and Sam Acho with 6 total recovered fumbles, 5 forced fumbles and an interception). Finally, let me mention that Greg McElroy is a freshman and Colt a seasoned senior. Let’s the tip the scale back to even and call Texas 20-17 with a Hunter Lawrence field goal sealing the deal. Hook em.
Alabama’s offense, while not as adept at piling up points as Texas’, is ultimately more difficult to dominate. Power running is the name of the game but the passing game can punish you with play-action, the screen game, and a few very good targets. Basically, they have the one dimension that’s dominant, like Texas’ short passing game, but then effective constraint plays that prevent teams from loading up against Ingram whereas Texas has not consistently punished teams with the run or deep pass.
Let’s begin with Ingram. He racked up 1500 yards, 15 touchdowns, never fumbled and won the Heisman trophy as the best offensive player on a team whose success was built on defense. Now that this topic is up I might as well state that I believe that Gerhart was a better running back candidate and Suh the most dominant player of the finalists. McCoy had a strong year but was part of a team (McCoy-Shipley) that saw 12 wins mostly because of dominant defense. Tebow was put there more out of respect than for recognition of a particularly brilliant season, just another fantastic one.
Just as Texas will rely on Colt to carry the offense Alabama would prefer Ingram to put up a Heisman defense and leave the game out of McElroy’s hands. McElroy is a good player himself and threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Occasionally he would make downfield throws from play-action plays or deep throws with Maze and Julio Jones going high-low on the same side of the field. He wasn’t asked to make a lot of contested throws like Colt has made and hasn’t shown the ability if asked. Texas will try to ask him to win the game with dangerous throws against coverage as often as possible. The best way is with a lead, the more likely way is on third downs. Even in games where the run has been stalled Saban would call 35-40 running plays to speed the clock and protect McElroy.
Alabama’s offensive line is a run-blocking machine. They drive defenders off the ball and they can handle a good d-line. They ran the ball for at least 100 yards on every opponent except for Auburn. Florida gave up 251 rushing yards and was gashed over the course of the game, a bad indicator for the Texas line. In pass protection they are considerably weaker. The right tackle is a clear weakness and Left tackle hasn’t been sorted out either after they lost Andre Smith last year to the NFL.
Maze and Julio Jones are the major receivers to worry about and both put up just over 500 yards on the season. Maze is the faster, deep threat while Jones is a big physical receiver with good speed himself. Ingram is dangerous on screens and tight end Colin Peek is another valuable check down option that frustrates efforts to shut down the run.
Auburn loaded up to stop the run and found some real success but ultimately were actually defeated by McElroy. Florida attempted the same to find Alabama coming out in spread sets and throwing the ball on their vaunted secondary. Muschamp will surely learn the valuable lesson from that game and not assume that loading 8 men in the box will result in victory even if it stops Ingram.
Alabama has a great punt returner in Javier Arenas (ironically the man likely to be assigned to Jordan Shipley) and will be dangerous in the kicking game. Texas has all of its special teams’ stars healthy, off suspension or eligible as the case may be, and ready to go now. After a month to practice they should have been able to focus on correcting issues with kickoff coverage. Christian Scott is back on the team and will resume serving on kickoff coverage. With Scott, Vaccarro and Antwan Cobb Texas should be much better in coverage for this game.
With that overview let’s examine the crucial matchups:
1). Predator vs. Swat Team Member 4
Drew Davis has struggled in pass protection this season. He’s the right tackle for Alabama and now he’s heading to the urban jungle to deal with what he thinks is a major urban drug bust. Sergio Kindle has destroyed running plays this season by simply blowing into the backfield or catching guys from behind. It is my belief that Texas will utilize its 3-4 defense against Alabama at various points to disrupt blocking schemes and create particular matchups. In such scenarios Kindle typically lines up outside the right tackle and assaults him with the speed rush. If you’ve seen recent Cowboys games you likely have some grasp of what a player like DeMarcus Ware can do in a ball game. Kindle needs to have a game that draws comparisons to Ware because this is a matchup Texas can’t fail to exploit as the upside is turnovers and punts.
2). Texas D-line vs. Alabama O-line
Given the failures by teams to control the Alabama passing game while loading up against the run, along with Muschamp’s strategies in other games against power-running teams over the last few years, I predict that Texas will most likely face Ingram with an honest front (as many defenders as blockers) except for situational circumstances like 3rd and 1.
Texas has a 3-4 alignment with Alexander/Randall as nose tackle with Acho and Lamarr Houston as 5-tech defensive ends. This alignment caused big problems for Nebraska when they tried to deal with Acho inside or asked someone to reach block Houston in time before he wrecked everything. Penetration is always the best way to kill a running game but particularly for the Longhorns who don’t want Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho having to fight off blocks but instead chasing obvious pursuit angles on the runners. The ‘bama line is good and they get help from the tight end and fullback in various formations, but Muschamp will try to scheme favorable matchups for the d-lineman do more with less.
The team that performed best against Alabama this season, Tennessee, did so by containing the running game AND the passing game. So again it’s essential that Texas not have to load 8 defenders in the box against the run and be able to create pressure with 3-5 defenders and induce difficult throws against a great secondary. It’s also possible Texas will throw some big blitzes ala the Tech game blitzes that nearly ended Taylor Potts.
3). Earl Thomas vs. McElroy
Earl Thomas’ interception vs. Oklahoma State was a perfect example of what he offers on defense, a rover who understands the offenses intent and can get to the ball in a hurry. McElroy hasn’t really seen anything like him this season and could be baited into a trap. Here’s where the performance by the D-line really comes in, a few pressures on McElroy which lead him into throwing into a tight spot can turn into easy points with Thomas and the rest of this secondary. Field position and non-offensive points are crucial in a game like this so it’s important that Thomas get the better end of this matchup and be responsible for a turnover or two by jumping a route or closing in on an attempt. Also of note, Greg McElroy looks like kid Robin Williams from Jumanji before he go beat up outside his dad's shoe factory.
4). Special Teams vs. Field Position
Alabama has Javier Arenas, a good punt returner with 1 touchdown this season and negligible performance from their kick returns. Texas has Shipley, who has 2 punt return tds on the season, and a host of talented kick returners. Shipley can be effective there, as we’ve seen, but Goodwin had a monster return against A&M and Monroe contributed 2 more on the season. Texas gave up 12 points to Nebraska because of field position. The Nebraska offense was virtually ineffective except for getting 10 yards here or there and getting in field goal range. Texas, on the other side, had to drive the length of the field to get any points.
Pinning Alabama on kickoffs with good coverage and the rugby punt is the start. A special teams or defensive touchdown is almost essential, I believe, for Texas to win this game unless they are consistently creating fantastic field position for Texas. A few big plays to Shipley here and there are likely but multiple full-field drives I have trouble imagining unless Greg Davis has finally found the wrinkle that will make his offense game-planning proof. The decade’s evidence seems to suggest otherwise. No team has blocked more kicks this decade than Texas, now would be a good time for a timely reminder of what a special teams monster Texas can be. As my uncle Johnny suggested, “I think 20 wins it don’t you?” Yes, I do.
5). Texas’ Back 7 vs. the SEC
The Big 12 is built around spreading teams out and killing them in space or individual matchups with speed, precision, and option routes/runs. Alabama just knocks you over and takes your lunch. Consequently, Texas’ back 7 is built to handle running sideline to sideline and covering people. One advantage of this is Texas preponderance of excellent man-coverage defenders. The only way teams have been able to hurt Texas is by having enough skill players to force Texas to cover good players with linebackers or white safeties OR by having a running threat at quarterback. The former takes about 4 good receiving options.
Last year Texas’ linebackers were less practiced and well versed in stopping power plays. This year they’ve made big steps and it has certainly been a point of emphasis in bowl practices. The one place Texas might want a big, nasty defender instead of a Big 12 style guy is at Middle linebacker but you aren’t upgrading Roddrick Muckelroy inside the tackles against Ingram with anyone who has played at Texas in the last 10 years (as my all-decade team established).
In other news, McElroy isn’t much of a running threat, I don’t care about his little tight-walk scramble against Florida. If Greg is forced to do that against Texas he’ll get in trouble fast. Reeling Florida wasn’t ready but lightning won’t strike twice. Texas will be unafraid of matching up Julio Jones and Maze in man coverage. Alabama lines up in 3-wide sets frequently, which might match Chykie against Julio Jones, Curtis Brown vs. Maze and Aaron Williams vs. the slot or tight end. None of these are matchups Texas will be hesitant about. The cover-1 robber with Gideon in deep support and Earl roving the middle of the field can sneak 7 defenders in the box and man-up the receivers with the deepest corp of corners Alabama has likely faced save maybe for Florida. There will probably be some 2-deep man under as well perhaps with 3 safeties on the field and Thomas on the slot receiver.
This is a big opportunity for Big 12 style squad to face up to the SEC mythological giant and prove to be a more athletic and versatile product. Florida’s defense is fantastic but was missing their Kindle (Carlos Dunlap) and had a defensive coordinator interviewing for other jobs. I’m think speed wins round 2 against this bunch and Alabama fails to reach 20.
6). The Wildcard
Christian Scott didn’t make significant progress towards a degree and was ruled academically ineligible for the 2009 season. When exams ended in December Scott became eligible again due to his academic recovery. I thought it was most likely that Scott would supplant Gideon as the safety opposite little Earl at the season’s onset and there were reports from practices and the players that suggested Scott might be the most talented safety on the team. Scott is a much larger defender at 6-1 210 pounds than either Gideon or Thomas. He’s also faster than Gideon and one of the more rangy players on the team. When Gideon was knocked out of the Kansas game the previous season Scott came in and almost immediately knocked the offending Jayhawk out along with the ball.
He’s a downhill safety who can make big plays in the running game while providing a little more coverage range in the deep field. Texas will certainly use him for kickoff coverage and have left open the possibility of him playing safety regularly in the game.
When Texas is in the “big nickel” where Earl Thomas moves down to cover the slot receiver and Gideon and Nolan Brewster divide the deep field in 2-deep coverage it’s possible Muschamp will insert Scott in as one of those safeties and suddenly the big nickel becomes a more valuable option against Alabama. Or, if Scott entirely replaces Gideon from practice results Texas might add a better run defender and overall player to the starting eleven. Personally I think seeing him instead of Brewster in the big nickel is the most likely optimist view as Muschamp will be wary of using players that might succumb to play-action fakes. It’s late in the season to jump in as an every down player. Consider Scott a potential ace in the hole though, and the Championship game a potential coming out party.
Big Nickel
7). Hunter Lawrence vs. Leigh Tiffin
Hunter Lawrence has made 22 of 25 field goal attempts and is virtually automatic inside of 50 yards including a long of 49. He nailed a final second kick to seal a conference championship from 46 yards (that would be that Nebraska game) and has the ghosts of Ryan Bailey (actually on the bench), David Pino, Kris Stockton and Dusty Mangum watching over him.
Tiffin has made 29 of 33 attempts and has a long of 50 yards although he’s slightly less consistent inside of 50. He’s certainly a good kicker but it was a blocked kick that sealed the deal for Alabama late, not a Tiffin make.
Let me put it this way, would you rather have a guy name Leigh or a Texan named Hunter kicking the field goal to win a national championship for your team. Case closed.
So that’s it. If I’ve painted a bleak picture then don’t hurry to check how Vegas perceives this game because the general consensus is that Alabama has the better team. I like the Texas defense more but Alabama’s is certainly one of the better in the country. Texas has a more dangerous offense but Alabama’s is more consistent and difficult to totally shut down. Special teams and the ability to create turnovers however are a distinct advantage for Mack who fields a player with 8 interceptions and a pair of brothers whose presence seems to will the ball to the Texas side (Emmanuel and Sam Acho with 6 total recovered fumbles, 5 forced fumbles and an interception). Finally, let me mention that Greg McElroy is a freshman and Colt a seasoned senior. Let’s the tip the scale back to even and call Texas 20-17 with a Hunter Lawrence field goal sealing the deal. Hook em.
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