Sunday, January 10, 2010

Championship game thoughts

Final thoughts on 2009-10
I hinted that Texas had the weapons to burn Alabama but I was suprised at how easily they were almost able to pull it off. If not for...

1). What if Colt hadn’t been hurt?

Ugh, you couldn’t have written a more terrible and undeserving end to Colt’s time at Texas. Injured 5 plays into the game while 2-2 and leading the offense down the field. There were a few points here where you Texas has no one to blame for themselves for what happened. For instance, all year I said “Why aren’t they playing Gilbert more?” He should have been rotated into meaningful series against teams like Baylor or other weaker conference foes. If he isn’t redshirting and he is the real backup then he needs real game experience. Instead we had to watch him grow up over the course of a national championship game.

Secondly, the play call there was bad. I understand the appreciation Greg Davis has for the speed option and its usefulness in getting the ball to the running back on the perimeter. Our scouting of Alabama said they were slow and vulnerable to our speed on the edge and the sweeps and Receiver tunnel screens demonstrated that point really well. However, as dedfischer on tortillaretort.com pointed out,

“A stretch option play with reach blocking? Really? I can’t recall for sure, and feel free to correct me, but weren’t you always coached on defense to stretch the option out? I swear I think that’s right. Think about that for a minute and you’ll find the epitome of why Texas lost this game.”

This play has been a terrible one for 2 seasons for Texas. The speed option is a good play used well by other teams but Texas never blocks it effectively and 9 times out of 10 it puts Colt in a no-win situation where he can pitch the ball for a huge loss or take a big hit for a smaller loss. Go back and watch the OU game and you’ll see a promising Texas drive started by a turnover killed by a speed option run for a 9 yard loss.

It was a fluke hit that happened to hurt Colt where hundreds of hits before hadn’t, but really that’s the chance you take when your offense is dependent on one quarterback. I talked about this with my first post on this blog when I argued that some teams in the NFL should try treating quarterback like another position (acceptable to see injury) and run an option offense.

Now that I’ve said all that let me also add one more caveat before making a big point about the Colt injury, it’s impossible to know if Texas would have won. Alabama ran the ball very effectively and only slowed down in the 3rd quarter when protecting a lead. You have to conclude that Alabama is the better team and worthy champion. Texas wasn’t prepared for a Colt injury and were risking it all the time by making the offense Colt-dependent, having shaky offensive-line play, being Shipley dependent, and calling that stupid speed option play in the National Championship.

So what if Colt hadn’t been hurt? I think Texas wins that game. Alabama’s defense, I pondered the day of the game and moreso as the game went on, was an inferior unit to the one Texas faced at the Cotton Bowl in October. Their safeties were slow and couldn’t turn their hips in coverage. Remember when Texas A&M went 5-wide and picked on Blake Gideon, Brewster and the linebackers in coverage? Texas did that hardcore in the 2nd half. Alabama was lining up safeties on Jordan Shipley, a stupid strategy that was quickly resulting in big points from the Texas offense.

Alabama’s running game was effective, but you can run for 200 yards without scoring much just as you can throw for 200 yards without scoring much. It all adds up the same. Alabama’s passing game was just about the most helpless one Texas faced all season. They were no better equipped to handle Kindle and the Texas pass rush than they were to hold off an elephant stampede. Greg McElroy, one of the worst quarterbacks I saw this entire season, completed 6 of 11 passes and was sacked 5 times. In other words, when Alabama threw the ball one of 2 things happened and they each happened about evenly, McElroy would complete a pass or be sacked.

This is particularly relevant given Texas’ early special teams’ success and field position. If McCoy could have led Texas to an early lead and forced McElroy to have to throw the ball Texas could have won in a route. At the least it’s hard to see how Alabama could have scored enough to match Texas because they couldn’t handle Texas’ speed at running back, wide receiver, or defensive line. I think this game could have played out either like the Utah game last year when Alabama got down early and blown out, or Texas may have won a game that was scored in the 20s and 30s where Alabama is out of their element.

However at the end of the day, Texas’ wide receivers had 17 drops, Gilbert had to pull a super-gritty performance out with no experience, and the offensive line gave up a game-costing sack/fumble when they had 5 lineman to block 3 rushers because of a miscommunication. Also, Alabama had great defensive schemes, strong play from the front 7, and easily the best running game Texas faced all year. They are a worthy champion.

2). The Saban love-fest is stupid. Look, the guy lost to Utah in a bowl game and easily could have lost this game had he not been lucky enough to see the winningest quarterback in NCAA history go down at the onset of the game. All the attention paid to his 2nd Championship distracted from the fact that it was Alabama’s championship (the other came at SEC rival LSU). All of this is the media’s fault, Saban was quick to credit Alabama and their football program and players. He’s a little uptight, defensive-minded napoleon syndrome, SEC coach who gets a mad amount of attention for what amounts to being one of a several great coaches in the NCAA right now.

3). The shovel-pass; while a complete disaster, questionable, and might have cost the game, should not be laid at the coach’s feet as the reason why Texas lost. I heard some idiot on the radio blaming Mack Brown for the whole game for calling the shovel pass and accusing Mack of blaming it’s failure on Gilbert. First of all, that blame was never placed by Mack. If anyone was to be blamed it was DJ Monroe for playing hot potato with the pass. The story here is this, when you have a freshman making a throw under pressure to another freshman calamity is possible. You can say that it was too much of a risk, but as Mack correctly stated, the shovel pass is one of the lowest risk plays you can run. This was the equivalent of running a running back draw on 3rd and 15. It usually doesn’t work but it has the potential and it’s safer than forcing a throw downfield. Mack was searching for some momentum to head into halftime with. Maybe it was unnecessary and clearly it was disastrous, you can blame the execution or reliance on freshman on the coaches if you want, but the reasoning was sound and the risk was very low despite the results.

4). Texas loses a lot from this team, this was the big title shot. Alabama might be in position to repeat next year, Trent Richardson is coming back, McElroy will be back but they’d be just as good with anyone back there who can hand a ball off or stare at a wide receiver on a play-action pass.

Namely, Texas loses the class of defensive players that took over 2 years ago with Muschamp and transformed this unit into a nationally elite unit. Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, Roddrick Muckelroy, Earl Thomas are leaving, each the best at his respective level of defense. Lamarr Houston was one of the best defensive tackles in the whole nation this season. He had 10 tackles against Alabama, including a sack and a few tackles for loss. If not for Suh and Gerald McCoy he would have received credit as being an elite tackle.

On offense a generation of lineman are passing on along with the legendary Colt-Jordan connection. Chris Hall went down and the game and was replaced with the superior David Snow, Adam Ulatoski was a worthy player who is graduating. Charlie Tanner was a questionable talent who worked his way into a starting role and held on by knowledge and seniority. The next generation line could be considerably more talented as whole, though it will certainly struggle some next year.
We’ll talk soon about the holes and question marks for the 2010 unit but I’ll finish today with Garret Gilbert. My only concern heading into the 2nd half of the championship game was that Texas be able to break 10 for pride’s sake and that Gilbert not be scarred for life and crippled as a quarterback. Instead he pulled out what was almost a legendary performance that could have rivaled Vince Young’s Rose Bowl masterpieces and lost at the end on a play that wasn’t his fault. He’s a keeper for sure and he can burn teams downfield with his arm. I’m welcoming the Garret Gilbert era with arms open wide, apparently so are Mack Brown and Greg Davis as it’s rumoured that Mack Brown plans to stick around 3 more years (the exact remaining eligibility of Gilbert at Texas) and has been waiting with Greg for Gilbert “their whole careers”. It’s also rumoured that this time line is acceptable to Muschamp…thank God.

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