How Texas can win: Scoring points

Sadly teams have found a smarter way to defend Colt and the Texas offense this season. Texas A&M figured it out in 2006 when they intercepted barely-healthy McCoy 3 times before knocking him out of the game. It took 2 years until last year’s Tech game for the rest of the nation to catch on. Basically, the standard defense Texas faces now looks like this:


The linebackers are often 5 yards off the line of scrimmage and the corners play very soft on the outside receivers. They keep the Texas receivers in front of them and force Colt to complete dink and dunk passes for 70 yard drives in order to score and wait for the inevitable failed running play or incomplete pass to kill the drive. If the offense is particularly predictable the defense has time to react…good thing that’s not an issue with Texas…

Normally, you would simply run against a 6 man front with the linebackers playing so far off the ball and be very satisfied to move the ball 5-6 yards at a time and see if you can catch a few big plays from play-action if the defense gets tired of watching you execute short passes and running plays. Texas tried this very strategy against Colorado, running the ball and attempting to work the play-action game. Unfortunately, this same prevent-style defense sets up linebackers very well against the Texas running game.

All the outside-zone runs, counters and traps that Texas ran against Colorado are slow-developing and very easy to pick up on. With a few play-action exceptions, if you see a Texas guard moving in a direction, you can count on the ball going there as well. With the linebackers sitting further back, the Texas linemen have a longer way to go to reach them on blocks. If the opponents are at all familiar with our simple running game it’s not hard to fly downhill and blow up the attempted run.

Will Oklahoma employ this strategy of playing off Texas? It’s hard to say because Stoops and Venables have so much pride that forces them to play 3 linebackers in virtually all scenarios still while also attempting to defend the entire field. However, besides tighter coverage on the outside receivers you can probably count on OU playing a little zone and aggressively coming down on our plays as soon as they read them out just like every year.

I hope this paints a fairly bleak picture of Texas’ offensive chances against OU because on the surface that’s exactly what it is. A struggling offense vs. a defense primed to take advantage.

In the big scheme of things, OU’s defense was schematically ahead of Texas’ offense until 2005 when Vince could pass or throw and no defense stood a chance. After overcoming the hump of actually scoring more than 20 points against Stoops, Greg Davis finally figured out how to attack him. In 2007 Texas played one of it’s finest offensive games under Mack Brown in the series and lost as a result of dumb 4rth quarter defense and 2 costly turnovers (one of which cost a touchdown and momentum).

In that game Jermichael Finley had 4 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown. Young Blaine Irby also had a 26 yard catch. Boom, suddenly Greg Davis knew what to do. Before the 2008 game Blaine Irby blew out his knee and Davis inserted Shipley into the new Flex tight end position in a 4-Wide Receiver offense and this resulted in 11 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Mack Brown pointed out this week that Davis gets criticized for the running game while avoiding praise for his brilliant passing game. True enough, he doesn’t get a lot of credit for an excellent college passing game, although you would like to see more than 50% comprehension of the various possibilities presented by offensive football. In 2007 he unveiled a good counter and running back draw for Jamaal Charles that resulted in 79 yards on 17 carries before a costly Charles fumble moved Davis to abandon the running game and any chance of winning.

Furthermore, we never really saw the running back draw again, despite it being the obvious staple of a pass-first offense such as Texas employs. Last year Texas found success in the running game by virtue of the OU defense simply wearing down to the point of being unable to fight off pulling guards and catch Chris Ogbonnaya. That was surprising then but not totally unlikely for this year.

This particular incarnation of OU’s defense was expected to be the greatest since perhaps the 2000 championship unit. Fortunately, I can say with confidence that it is definitively not. We’ll go over matchups later but overall the team has the same basic strengths and weakness as it does every year. They are vulnerable to misdirection, because of their aggression, and passes against the middle of the field.

This year Texas has one of its best weapons to date for attacking the middle in Dan Buckner. As excellent a receiver as Jordan Shipley is, perhaps the best to ever even play at Texas, playing flex tight end is not maximizing his potential. Dan Buckner has more of the size and strength to play over the middle and be a large target for Colt to find.

Given a decent amount of time in the pocket there should be plenty of options for Colt to hit. OU’s defensive line is strong and Jeremy Beals is an excellent pass-rusher but Venables typically insists on calling zone blitzes that Colt will read and exploit when they choose to use them. The real question is whether or not Texas can run the ball sufficiently to win.

There are a few reasons why I am optimistic that Texas will find a way to do so. Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are both injured and there is consequently no temptation for Texas to try and employ them against the OU defense. This might be a good thing given their skill sets and what Texas needs in this game. Additionally, the mythical Fozzy beast is rumored to be 100 percent for this game and is listed as co-starter with Cody Johnson. Fozzy has the skill set Texas should be looking for.

Miami found a way to run the ball on OU to the tune of 150 yards on 15 carries for Javarris James. My extensive film study (watching the game on DVR while drifting in and out of consciousness) revealed that OU’s front 7 is not actually as strong as was suspected in the preseason.

Ryan Reynolds is a perfect example of the typical weakness of an OU defense. When he correctly diagnoses the play, he flies downhill to the ball and blows things up. If you ask him to move laterally, confuse him and lure him into taking false steps, or ask him to cover a mobile receiver over the middle you set him up for failure. He has 2 surgically repaired knees and blew one of them in last year’s game.

Gerald McCoy, for all the talk, was taken out of the game against Miami by consistent double teams and the rest of that front 7 didn’t exploit the resulting freedom with any resounding success.

So, how can Texas run the ball successfully against OU? Why does it matter that Fozzy Bear will be getting the first chance to make something happen?

There are a few ways that I think are remotely likely to occur that might result in running game success that would put this game away. I’ve listed them in order of likelihood.

1). Exhaustion by the OU defense: Given a likely no-huddle pace combined with little chance for success by the OU offense this is the best bet.

2). Cutbacks by Fozzy: The best run against Colorado was the late touchdown run when, after the play was blown up again, Fozzy just reversed field and ran around the defense. While that might be a bit much to expect a few cutback runs could take Ryan Reynolds out of the picture and possibly result in some big runs.


3). The no-huddle under-center game: Texas runs the ball best from the no-huddle when teams get tired and linebackers are backpedaling against the pass. Against ULM Texas ran an excellent under-center no-huddle series and then mostly shelved it up until now. Breaking out the inside-zone (based on cutback runs) and then using play-action could get some big plays on the OU defense.

4). Wild Chiles: The Wild Horn formation, which I insist should be commonly known as “the wild Chiles” has many elements of misdirection and inventive play-calling that could really punish the OU defense. Sadly, Texas seems fairly inept in running it (why is there a QB draw in a package designed entirely around the run?).
It might prove useful, or likely it will be used a few times early, be enveloped in tacklers perhaps resulting in a turnover, and shelved for the entire 2nd half.

5). The Running back draw: Humor me. We haven’t seen it in a few years save for one attempt against Ohio St. on 3rd and long that was immediately destroyed. However, if it were pulled out again ala 2007 I believe Fozzy could find success. At least, if we have practiced it and can execute it on any level.

Now the crucial matchups:

Texas Offensive line vs. OU defensive line
Almost the exact same units faced off last season and Texas won the battle in the trenches. Gerald McCoy is a big mismatch for Chris Hall on the interior but Ulatoski and Hix should be able to keep Colt upright often enough against Beal and English on the edge. The real question is whether the line can get any push at any point in the running game against McCoy. Fortunately, they’ve had to hear that all week and Hall should be healthier while the injured Huey will be replaced by the strong David Snow inside. I’ll be shocked if Gerald McCoy isn’t double-teamed all day.

Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds and Keenan Clayton vs. Fozzy Whittaker/John Chiles

We’ve covered Fozzy vs. OU. If he gets 20 chances and any blocks I think he can break some big plays in the running and passing game. Meanwhile, Texas is building up a pretty strong screen game with the tunnel screen to the wide receiver and the bubble screen to Chiles. However, Travis Lewis is a quick-moving mauler and Reynolds will know the tendencies. They may be able to shut down these useful short-passing plays. The Wild Chiles should be breaking teams apart but given its lack of success against Colorado it’ll probably be eaten by this bunch.

Colt McCoy vs. OU safeties

The safeties are faster this year and also less experienced. I’m not giving anyone an edge on Colt. If he can get out on some unplanned runs, break containment and pick up a few first downs it could be game, set, match.


Jordan Shipley vs. the World

He’s the most underrated player in college football. Perhaps because he is white his speed and athleticism are undervalued while his amazing hands and routes are recognized but still underappreciated. Another 100 yard receiving game with a punt or kickoff TD would just about make him one of the most feared players in the history of the rivalry. I like his chances.

Indeed, the real hope is Special Teams, where Texas has become the most dominant unit in the country. DJ Monroe and Shipley on kickoffs, the punt-blocking game mixed with Shipley returning punts, and the rugby and distance punts combine to form a unit that will probably give Texas its best chance to score on OU.

I expect this to occur often enough to result in at least 28 points for Texas. I can’t see how OU keeps up with that kind of number so we could be looking at a dominating Texas win. We’ll see what kind of magic Bradford and Colt have going.

Vengeance belongs to Muschamp: defensing the Sooners

Before the season began I was highly skeptical of this Oklahoma offense. Last year’s unit overwhelmed every team they faced except Texas and Florida who actually had the speed on the line and in the secondary to handle OU’s hurry-up juggernaut, then they struggled. Texas and Florida both did tremendous damage against the vaunted OU offensive line, limited or simply ruined the running game and pressured Bradford away from dominance.

In every other game that enormous and experienced line bullied the other teams into total submission to the will of the visored one. Then all but one of those lineman graduated or left along with the majority of the OU receiving corp.


Then Jermaine Gresham, one of 3 legitimate offensive weapons, went down for the season before it began. Then Sam Bradford went down for a few games. Then Ryan Broyles broke his scapula and if you think he can actually play Saturday then you’re Bob Stoops.

That leaves Oklahoma with Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray as possible heros against Texas on Saturday.

Before the season began the gameplan for Oklahoma was probably going to focus on double TE sets with lots of power-running against Texas’ new defensive tackles mixed with play-action passes to Gresham. This would protect Bradford and the line from the Texas pass-rush while exploiting the 2 places where OU might have advantages, 1). Gresham downfield (a mismatch for any college defense to handle) and 2). Running the ball with Murray and Chris Brown against the Texas tackles.

However, as the season has progressed, Oklahoma’s running game has been suspect and the threat from a TE or any downfield receiver is virtually non-existent with Broyles injured. As it now stands, there are no places on the field where Oklahoma has any kind of real matchup advantage against the Texas defense. In the few places where Texas is vulnerable or less than excellent Oklahoma is mediocre or poor.

Given that fact, the Sooner offense is left with the gameplan of throwing the ball over and over from spread sets in the hurry up offense while frequently mixing in running back draws to try and punish the Texas line for rushing upfield in their zeal to murder Bradford and after that is accomplished, Landry Jones. Bradford will have to be extremely accurate and healthy for the entire game in order for Oklahoma to score at all barring major defensive or special teams success.

On the other side Will Muschamp has a lot more to play with. Texas can rotate from a 3-4 to a 4-3, or a 3-3-5 to a 4-2-5 with the same 11 players and has done so all year. This will allow the Texas defense to mix up the Sooner offensive line’s blocking assignments despite the hurried pace by Oklahoma. The inexperienced Oklahoma line will have little time to organize which overwhelming Texas defender they are going to have to try and block on most snaps. Given also the lack of clear mismatches that favor the Sooners, Texas is very free to experiment schematically without being afraid of leaving players in dangerous positions.

The only truly dangerous position for Texas is if Bradford has a lot of time to throw. Therefore, stopping him is first priority. If OU shows some life in the running game, Texas can play some cover-1 and drop a safety down to help out. If Oklahoma’s running game is dead Texas can play some Cover-2 man under or Cover-1 or Cover-3 zone with heavy blitzing.

All of these are likely. Texas blitzed frequently against a Tech passing game that was much more dangerous than OU and isn’t afraid of leaving Aaron Williams or the Browns against whomever it is that plays receiver at OU this season. Overall, whatever OU shows early success with Texas can scheme against with greater resources.

Now let’s examine some of the crucial matchups in the game

Trent Williams vs. Sam Acho/Sergio Kindle

Trent Williams is regarded as an NFL level left-tackle with a lot of speed and pass-protection talent. I think he is vastly overrated and personally watched Sergio Kindle murder him last year with less refined moves than he is operating with this season. Meanwhile, Miami sacked Landry Jones 3 times, including one by Trent Williams’ assignment. If OU is dropping back to throw 40-50 times, which they probably must, I predict Sergio will cost Trent millions in the draft as Orakpo did Loadholt last season.

check out :43 to see Kindle after matching up on Trent in 2008.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOLNdu2LI9M&feature=player_embedded

Jarvis Jones vs. Sam Acho/Sergio Kindle

Texas moves the Predator around a lot and he may find himself up against OU’s Right tackle, Jarvis Jones, as well in this game. Sam Acho has 5 sacks thus far in the season and should be a major concern for Oklahoma. Sergio Kindle must be keeping Jones awake at night with fits of terror. Jarvis Jones is a terrible matchup for Kindle, Acho, Eddie Jones, or any of the other better pass-rushers at Texas. This is exhibit A in why it might be criminally irresponsible for Stoops to risk Bradford in this game.


OU receivers vs. Texas Secondary

The only place in the Texas secondary that is potentially vulnerable is Blake Gideon deep. He’s slow and doesn’t offer a ton of deep support. However, he is imminently competent and more than good enough to handle the deep passing threats from OU. Curtis Brown and Aaron Williams should be able to completely lock down their matchups in press-coverage.

DeMarco Murray/Chris Brown vs. Texas linebacker corp

This is the best linebacker Corp Texas has had in a long time. I don’t even know how long because it might have been before I was born that a better group roamed the field in burnt orange and white. OU is likely to use the RB draws that were successful against Miami along with their complement of great screens to try and utilize their only remaining weapons. Fortunately, Texas is proving itself to be one of the best defenses in the screen game in modern college football. Muckelroy is great at sniffing these out along with Houston and the Texas defensive ends. Count that as another OU strength negated by injury or Texas strength.

Sam Bradford vs. Earl Thomas

If Bradford is wise he will try and avoid little Earl when possible and increase the likelihood of a turnover free game from OU which is a necessity for a Sooner victory. Earl can end the game with a few route jumps or a pic-six. Last year one of his 2 interceptions made a big difference. This is tough to call but with the addition of a Texas pass-rush this looks like a likely Texas win.

At the end of the day I have trouble finding ways for Oklahoma to score that don’t result from fantastic field position granted by defense and special teams. I guess we’ll have to examine those to see how this will play out…

How about those Cowboys?

It’s time to talk about your Dallas Cowboys. I say your because I gave up Dallas fandom after the last superbowl win (1995, incidentally, also the last Dallas playoff win unless I’m mistaken). I grew less enamored with pro football for a brief period but I stand by that choice one hundred percent. The hiring of Barry Switzer alone should have driven away all the cowboy fans, or at least warned them, if not the decade and a half of Jerry Jones incompetence that followed it. Now I find the Cowboys to be a hateable franchise with unlikable players and staff.

As it is, I can’t help but be fairly invested in the Cowboys for a few reasons. First is that they are the most prominent local pro team and consequently are on television every Sunday. Second is that I watch football frequently with my pal Nathan and he’s a Cowboys fan. I enjoy taking shots at Dallas and Tony Romo and casting aspersions on the quality of person who might root for the Cowboys but I feel the ‘boys are beginning to get a bum rep.

They are 2-2 with losses to undefeated Denver on the road and the powerful looking New York Giants. Both of these games were winnable and featured poor 2nd halves by Tony Romo. It’s partly because these games were close that Dallas is getting so much criticism. The perception is that they have as much talent as anyone and are blowing it with sloppy play. Tony Romo is being chided as someone who can’t win the big game and Roy Williams as a prima donna.

Both of those criticisms are actually pretty fair, I would admit, but there is a deeper issue with this team that comes back to the real reason for the Cowboys failure to win a superbowl in the salary cap era…Jerry Jones.

Jerry Jones is in love with a man named Jason Garrett. Jason Garrett is a young man who has been charged with coordinating the Dallas offensives in their contests this season. Unless I’m missing something, which is more than possible, Jason Garrett is the type of coach who has a system he wants to run and he’ll assemble his pieces into that puzzle however best they fit. Allow me to demonstrate using my common sense powers. To begin with, what weapons does Dallas have to work with on offense?

1). A big, powerful Offensive line: These guys are all large and a handful to deal with in the running game. Flozelle Adams comes and goes as a dominant pass-blocking left tackle and generally has some trouble with speed rushers but when it comes to moving forward this unit is good.

2). 2 upper-tier Tight ends: Martellus Bennet is a good run-blocker and very solid receiving option. Jason Whitten is a good blocker, excellent receiving option and one of the best all around Tight ends in the known football world.

3). A stable of very good Running backs: They have power runner Marion Barber, great all-around back Tashard Choice, and home-run hitter Felix Jones. That’s 3 guys who could start and be excellent in all phases of the game.

4). Tony Romo: Romo is great on the run as an improvisational guy and a very good talent overall. He could really burn teams in the right system.

Now, the weaknesses:

1). Pass protection from the O-line: They can actually be very solid and held back a Giants D-line that is excellent in getting after the quarterback. Frankly, this line isn’t very consistent. Flozelle Adams has had big trouble, as previously noted, with speed rushers. I think, given the opportunity to bang head every week, they might enjoy an identity as a bruising run-blocking team.

2). The Receivers: They lost TO, who was a very good receiver if nothing else. Now they have some mediocre possesion guys and a couple of downfield targets in Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. Neither of these are guys who you want to throw to 10-15 times per game. They are limited in functionality.

3). Tony Romo: Whatever he may or may not become, he is not currently a Manning/Brees/Brady type guy who you want to build your offense around. Or if he is, he needs better pass protection and receivers to work with.

Now, given all those pieces, what would be the ideal type of offense to run? Well, whatever that might be Garret has chosen to run a Steve-Spurrier style scheme built around Romo throwing the ball 30-40 times per game and a short game featuring misdirection with draws, counters and screens.

When Dallas runs the counter, draw or screen they have a lot of success. These are excellent plays in general that Dallas can execute very well, but given the team’s strengths to feature a pass-first offense that features the running game as a constraint option is frankly stupid. The screen, draw and, to a lesser extent, the counter are all plays that are designed to punish a team for selling out against what a team does best. What Dallas does best are these constraint plays, they are averaging 6 yards per rush right now. That number even includes rushes made by Tony Romo. Dallas ran the ball 7 times in the 2nd half against Denver despite holding a lead until the 4rth quarter. 7 times. Stupid.

Perhaps Tony Romo will always fail in big games and I was the first to decry his performance against the Giants and didn’t fail to notice him missing receivers against Denver. But Jason Garrett is not putting him in a position to be successful. There wouldn’t be anything wrong with his scheme if he was coordinating the New England Patriots but the Dallas Cowboys have very different personnel.

Given their strengths a much more obvious scheme would feature the same draws, counters and screens built around a power-running game with drive-blocking and play-action passes with Romo rolling out to find his tight ends or hitting Roy Williams or Patrick Crayton shooting downfield. This team is perfectly built for this traditional style offense. I love the spread and passing as much as anyone but this team has great talent that simply isn’t built for that style.

On defense they have a very solid squad that played well against Denver and the other games I’ve seen this season. There isn’t anything wrong here and Wade Phillips knows what he’s doing with these guys. If they can change their identity on offense (probably too late) and create a system that makes sense then maybe we can see Tony Romo become comfortable enough to overcome the hump. In the meantime, they are wasting talent. Of course, that’s just fine with me I hate them anyways.