I’ve developed a rankings system to judge the quality of teams based on what we can know in the preseason that I would like to share with all of you. I’ve rated all the teams on a scale from 1 to 5 with 5 diferent criteria.
First the quarterback, is he good? How much experience does he have? A second year quarterback will generally make a leap in improvement after a year at full speed and then an entire offseason of practicing with a better understanding of the game situation. Additionally it takes time to build chemistry with the receivers and assert himself as a leader on the team. So, I weighted experience here a lot combined with what I know of the players’ quality.
Skill players: This includes the running backs, tight ends and receivers. Mostly what I looked for here was game breakers and feature players. There’s a big difference between having start-able players at every position and having a Michael Crabtree or someone who people have to account for all the time.
The Offensive line, this is the 2nd of 3 areas where experience will be a large factor. Building chemistry between the lineman as well as adding the necessary technique and strength to be an effective lineman at this level takes time. Many of these guys are used to being one of the only players on the field with that kind of strength. It takes a while to adjust to lining up against an all-district athlete every snap.
Defensive backs; this is where experience counts again. Many teams just recruit highly athletic players and mold them into safeties and corners through strength and conditioning and endless practice repetitions in various coverages. Many of Texas’ greatest defensive backs in the last championship year took a few seasons of conditioning before they become the 4-headed terror we knew as the 2005 secondary. I’ve particularly weighted the rankings towards having experienced safeties. If these guys aren’t producing big plays for your team, you probably aren’t elite in this Big 12.
Linebackers/Defensive line: I’m looking for difference makers again, the linebacker who can create turnovers and make big hits or the defensive end that can chase the quarterback down and force the offense to drop part of the playbook. Defensive tackles are immensely important as well and overall quality is considered but the high rankings come from having difference makers.
Coaching: You can lump scheme, preparedness, special teams, intangibles and whatever else into this category. I’m less informed on many of these guys and so many of the teams have a pretty basic rating with a few standouts.
Let’s begin with the Big 12 North because it’s an interesting division and a little further from home,
Kansas St: I think this could very well be the worst team in the Big 12.
Quarterback: 2
They lost Josh Freeman to the NFL and his replacement doesn’t match the type of dual-threat option quarterback that Coach Snyder prefers for his offense. First year starter in a mismatched scheme will not amount to greatness.
Skill players: 2
They have Brandon Banks back, a 5’7” receiver who had 1000 yards last season. He returns along with some lesser receivers, a new quarterback and no running backs anyone will have heard of. So, the only proven talent will probably not be maximized.
Offensive line: 3
They return their left tackle and left guard, so they should have some solid protection. The other guys are young and fairly talented so you might expect Coach Snyder to form them into a fairly solid unit.
Defensive backs: 4
They return 2 safeties with starting experience and an extra defensive back in senior Courtney Herndon who will play the “Wildcat” or the nickel back. Additionally, they have one of the Big 12’s best corners in Joshua Moore. Lots of speed and experience back here.
Defensive line/linebackers: 3
They are starting a walk-on at linebacker but they have a defensive end back with 10 sacks from a year ago in Brandon Harold. There is a chance for the defensive line to be very solid but the linebackers aren’t looking so great.
Coaching: 3
We’ll see if 120 year old Bill Snyder can return to his old ways of crafting a fundamentally solid team built for overachieving with the meager resources Kansas has to offer. If he can, they’ll have a big advantage in the North for the next few years. If not, at least they already named the stadium after him.
Overall Score: 17
Iowa St: 3.5
Quarterback: They’re returning a starting quarterback in Austen Arnaud who might be one of the better signal callers in the north this season. If they can keep him upright…
Skill Players: 2.5
Solid running back Alexander Robinson is back with several first year starter receivers. It’s hard to evaluate the skill players on a team with a terrible line but there aren’t any big game changers returning here.
Offensive line: 2.5
They have one returning starter from perhaps the worst line in the Big 12. One the one hand, all the terrible former starters are gone, on the other hand starting over will not yield immediate results.
Defensive backs: 2.5
This is where this team will really suffer. James Smith is the leading tackler from a year ago and provides one proven guy at safety. Everyone else is a first timer. A couple of talented guys are here, such as corner Leonard Johnson, but it’ll be a year before any of them are major contributors.
Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Lots of returning starters such as MLB Jesse Smith and lineman Nate Frere and Rashawn Parker means there will at least be some level of competence from the front 7 at Iowa State. Not enough game changing talent to cover a young secondary.
Overall: 17
Missouri:
QB: 3
They lost Chase Daniel, who quarterbacked them into prominence, however ultimately they are replacing a system quarterback with a more talented player. Blaine Gabbert won’t immediately match Daniel, but it shouldn’t be too hard for him to hold on to the reigns.
Skill players: 3
Jeremy Maclin is gone, so is Chase Coffman, both to the NFL. Running back Derrick Washington is still around though, and Missouri has recruited well here. The scheme and athletes they’ve accrued should measure up to a solid cast but nothing like last year.
Offensive line: 3.5
3 starters back from a unit that struggled last season including the left tackle and center, two of the more important positions on a zone-running team’s line. There should be improvement from the unit overall as they return a lot of experience.
Defensive backs: 2.5
Teams that lost a lot of secondary players will struggle in a league predicated on throwing the ball 40 times a game. Missouri returns 1 corner and lost Safety William Moore.
Defensive line/linebackers: 3.5
Most of this cast is fairly solid with one potential game changer in Brian Coulter, however they do return Sean Weatherspoon and he is perhaps the best linebacker in the big 12 and singlehandedly worth 1 whole rating point.
Coaching: 3
They lost their offensive coordinator but are keeping the same system and Head Coach in place. Also, he was the man who tried to incorporate Tech’s wide offensive line splits with a new line that resulted in Chase Daniel running around like Frodo Baggins in Shelob’s lair with Brian Orakpo after his soul.
Overall: 17.5
This is a rebuilding year for the defense, while the offense expects to reload. I’ll have to see it first.
Colorado
Quarterback: 2
Coach’s son Cody Hawkins has some starting experience but he also simply isn’t very good. I don’t think his ceiling is much higher than what we’ve seen.
Skill players: 2.5
I’m giving them an extra .5 in expectation that Darrel Scott might become the destroyer of worlds Longhorn fans envisioned before he spurned Texas for Colorado late in the recruiting game. If he does, maybe you could bump them up to a 3.
Offensive line: 3.5
One of the league’s best (if not the best) left tackles is back residing in the body of Nate Solder. The rest of the line is somewhat green but stocked with decent talent. The line is in place if young Mr. Hawkins or Mr. Scott want to do something about it.
Defensive backs: 3
Having only one returning starter (Cha’pelle Brown) is a big warning sign. However, he’s a very solid player and both safeties have seen some fairly extensive playing time for sophomores and have the physical talent to give a boost to a solid-looking defense.
Defensive line/linebackers: 3.5
Colorado lost Hypolite, a fantastic nose tackle, their leading rusher in Brad Jones (7 sacks) and another starting tackle. They are switching to the 3-4 behind an unproven line and return 2 linebackers. However, Colorado is all-world in churning out fantastic linebackers and there is a lot to build on here. I anticipate this defense being one of the better units in the league.
Coaching: 3.5
Hawkins has to prove himself in year 3 and he has some talent capable of doing it. Meanwhile, they have one of the best linebacker coaches in the country and a defense that can be counted on to play smart and aggressive every year.
Overall: 18.5
If Cody or Scott make the leap you’re looking at a Big 12 north contender. Otherwise they’re merely a bowl-eligible team.
Nebraska
Quarterback: 2.5
First year starter replacing Joe Ganz=trials and tribulations for the Cornhusker offense on 3rd down before they’ve probably marinated the new quarterback. On the plus side, Zac Lee (likely starter) won’t be featured and can run. The Huskers can hide him and still get some nice production when he bolts and runs.
Skill players: 3.5
They have a great running back in Roy Helu Jr. with a solid backup in Castille. Tight end McNeill will be one of the best in the conference and having a standout tight end lends itself well to a league where defenses are being built around speed. A great tight end can devastate a small defense with run-blocking and downfield receiving. The receivers aren’t much but again, that isn’t a feature in this offense.
Offensive line: 3.5
From the Center to the left tackle are returning starters and a fresh right side is composed of young talent. A big right side to run power plays to would be more optimal for this team but at least the young QB will be adequately protected. Nebraska lineman have become notorious for their, umm, conditioning and fantastic strength.
Defensive backs: 3.5
They return 3 safeties who started last season, including Larry Asante who was 2nd on the team in tackles. Having that kind of depth at safety could lend itself to the inevitable necessity of using a nickel back to cover multiple receiver sets. They also have starting corner Anthony West back who was a decent enough player last season.
Defensive line/linebackers: 4
If I could take any player from the Big 12 and put him on Texas I might take Ndamukong Suh, nosetackle, Nebraska. He led the team in tackles last season…as a nosetackle taking on 2 blockers all the time. He also led the team with 7.5 sacks and is a sure bet to be a top 10 or even top 5 pick in the next draft. He eviscerated Clemson in their bowl game. They also bring back talented end Barry Turner from a long injury and have great talent on the line along with some solid young linebackers with the necessary Big 12 speed.
Coaching: 3.5
Pellini took them from 5 wins to 9 in one year and is now in year of the implementation of his schemes. I anticipate Bo emerging as one of the top coaches in the league this year.
Overall: 20.5
Kansas:
Quarterback: 4
Todd Reesing is a very good quarterback, even standing no taller than me, and has proven himself in some big games already. This is year 3 for him starting and he has the best cast he’s had yet.
Skill players: 4
They have a deceptively good (i.e. white) running back in Jake Sharp and arguably the best receivers in the country with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe who both have a great rappaport with Reesing. Johnathan Wilson is another returning receiver as good as virtually any 3rd option in the country.
Offensive line: 3
An offenses ceiling is often set by the offensive line. This line only has to be so good for this team to reach a high ceiling. As it is, they return their center and right tackle and both are great players. The rest of the line is very green and will be tested early to provide the quality this offense needs to blow teams away.
Defensive backs: 3.5
Darrell Stuckey is one of the better safeties in the league and the team returns 4 other starters in the secondary which will be seeing 5 guys on the field in the base defense. Good overall experience aside, this isn’t a secondary stocked with the type of recruits Texas hauls in but there is some talent and speed.
Defensive line/linebackers: 3
Kansas had 3 excellent linebackers last season and they are all gone. None of the new starters stand out for what they’ve done or their recruitment. On the line, however, they return a solid pass rusher in Jake Laptad and a new end in Juco transfer Quintin Woods who was recruited to Michigan but didn’t qualify academically. Both tackles return and should provide a strong base to build from.
Coaching: 4.5
Mark Mangino took Kansas to a BCS bowl and won the game. That would be like if Baylor became bowl-eligible and starting routinely beating Texas A&M…What’s that? Really? Well, anyways, Mangino is amongst the elite coaches in the country and no one is doing more with less anywhere.
Overall: 21.5
This is your favorite to be the sacrificial lamb to Texas/OU in the Big 12 Championship.
We’ll visit the Big 12 South next and maybe project finishes and records based on the Big 12 scheduling slate. Any thoughts? I can’t claim to be an expert on all 12 teams, particularly these Northern ones.
I see the Chase Baggins now. Great image.
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