Anyways, Texas was absolutely wrecked in the trenches against Oklahoma in passing situations and in all phases against Nebraska. Major weaknesses have been exposed in the tendencies and the Offensive-line play. Typically, Greg Davis coached Texas is great on offense when they have a dominant trait that no one can stop with any reasonable allocation of defensive resources despite the obvious tendencies. For instance:
In 2008 Texas had the 3 step West Coast passing game with Colt McCoy throwing to Jordan Shipley and the Quan Cosby. No one could cover Quan and Shipley long enough when Colt would make a quick strike pass or dance around buying time. In 2005 (perhaps the greatest college offense ever) Texas had Vince Young running the shotgun-spread with the option and passing game. It was the perfect combination of a legendary talent with the right supporting cast, including an elite level O-line.
In 2004 Texas had Vince and Cedric Benson and the passing game was a useful constraint to the 2-man beatings inflicted on the Big 12 as well as an additional means of giving Vince space to run. When the passing game had matured by the Rose Bowl the offense was close to the 2005 juggernaut.
The other Texas offenses, no matter how talented, were ultimately susceptible usually due to weak line play or over reliance on one trait. This Texas team came into the year trying to run the same 4-wide 3 step passing game as last year and found that Quan hadn’t been replaced and that teams had worked out how to clamp down on the few routes that had devastated everyone the year before. A lot of teams on the schedule did this and it ultimately amounted to soft coverage where the defenders were free to jump the routes they knew were coming. Without other offensive weapons this Texas offense has been easy to handle for better defenses.
Now Alabama’s defensive scheme is not entirely like Nebraska’s or OUs’ style although closest to the latter. In scheme it’s perhaps most similar to what Texas has run on defense this year under Will Muschamp (who coached under Nick Saban as defensive coordinator at LSU and the Miami Dolphins). As I’ve mentioned, they lack a dominant 3-tech style tackle like Suh or McCoy to blow up the middle of the Longhorn line. Instead they use Terrance Cody to clog the middle and free up their big, athletic ends and linebackers (like All-American McClain) to blow up the middle or the edge. They use the same kind of 4-3 under defense that Muschamp uses and rotate between the 4-3 and 3-4 most frequently using the 3-4.
McClain is a 260 pound monster Middle Linebacker and the ends and other linebackers are pretty fast, downhill players. Corner Javier Arenas is a fantastic cover-guy and the safeties are OU, cover-2 downhill types that can make a big hit but aren’t covering anyone in the slot like Earl Thomas. Both are 215+ and used to handling SEC offenses with lots of power running and the play-action pass.
Alabama was built to destroy these SEC powers and namely Florida. Urban Meyer’s gator squad this year was strongest in the running game getting the fast backs on the edge or getting TE Hernandez the ball in the option game or any other way that occurs to Meyer. Tebow and the power running game could not consistently produce offense against Alabama’s perpetually unblocked linebackers and safeties, although in this game Florida had good yardage without points.
No one has really had any success against Alabama this season, but then none of Alabama’s opponents have had a ton of success against anyone of note. The more schematically advanced Auburn and Florida saw some limited success and Tennessee threw the ball fairly effective and had 10 points to show for it (as well as 2 blocked field goals). The 2005 Texas Offense and this defense would win the game by 30 points. As it is, this will be quite the struggle, I present the following considerations:
1). The immovable object vs. the wheel
Chris Hall will be lined up directly against Terrance Cody on most every offensive play. Chris Hall is most, or I might say only, useful in space. He can no sooner drive block Cody off the ball than he can levitate. The first might be the even less likely given Hall’s great faith. Unless God gives his faithful servant some such supernatural gift or Chris reworks his 295 pound frame into different proportions the Longhorns will have tremendous trouble in the running game getting blockers to McClain and the rest of the back 7. I think Davis should consider abandoning the inside and outside zone runs unless he is running no-huddle.
Which brings us to the positive side of this matchup, while the Blob will not be driven away from the play, he isn’t getting to Colt and he is not going to blow up plays in the backfield save by occupying a guard and freeing up a linebacker. In the passing game, which Texas will very likely rely on entirely, he is almost useless. Additionally, his body is not built for stamina and he can be driven off the field by a no-huddle offense and then perhaps the running game can be opened up.
2). Speed vs. Power
Texas will be the fastest offense that Alabama plays this season. Florida has some speed but ultimately only a few ways to use it since the ball is usually in Tebow’s hands and the receivers aren’t deep. Malcolm Williams, Jordan Shipley, Marquise Goodwin, Colt (as a quarterback) all have the potential to cause new problems for the Alabama squad. Conversely, Alabama’s power in the trenches could blow up anything before it starts, and the safeties are great if things stay in front of them. It is essential for Texas to use misdirection in this game and take advantage of the speed at Wide Receiver or Bama will swallow up everything and force turnovers making hard plays on the ball.
The misdirection running play debuted against OU, the traditional counters, and the counter-draw must be the staples of the Texas running game. Cody Johnson will be useful only in short-yardage. The various wide receiver screens should be abandoned and replaced with fake screens that turn into pump-fake deep throws. The comeback hitch-routes Texas runs should be supplemented with double moves deep to Shipley. Greg Davis likes to come out, do what he always does and then attack the schemes he expected to see from the defense playing his normal stuff. For once, Texas should assume that Bama will jump the traditional plays like everyone else has and play misdirection early. A fast start and early lead would be totally foreign to Alabama.
If Texas can establish a running game it’s all over. Since they almost certainly will not establish one with any consistency the best bet for scoring is through a few big plays by breaking tendency. The one great advantage to being a team that always does the same thing and relies on talent is that the exceptions will shock and awe. Malcolm Williams is a home-run threat on every play. Alabama cannot handle someone that big and fast, no one can. Both safeties are slow and aggressive, thus very vulnerable if drawn into taking a false step. Their better corner, Arenas, will almost certainly be worried about Shipley. The linebackers, like the safeties, are great playing downhill but aren’t catching people from behind. One or two big plays could very well make the difference. Another possible big play is the Colt scramble which could very well keep a crucial drive alive or punch in points in a big way.
3). Texas O-line vs. legacy
Last year this line stepped up big when it mattered in Dallas and keyed a big Texas victory and 38 offensive points against OU (Shipley kickoff return). This year it hasn’t stepped up on the big stage and is largely to blame for Colt’s failure to win the Heisman in a wide-open year. With Malcolm Williams AND Jordan Shipley in the receiving corp plus Colt and a host of competent running backs the major block to offensive dominance has been a soft running game and weak pass-protection.
OU, in addition to having Gerald McCoy dominate the Texas guards, would zone-blitz and then blanket Shipley. If Alabama doesn’t do the same thing it would reverse what game-tape recommends as well as what Alabama has done all year. Primarily, Saban prefers the same man-free coverage Muschamp has used much of the year. He uses a robber in the middle of the field which he curiously calls “the rat” who rats out the other teams coverages, passes on responsibilities and jumps routes in the middle. Or Saban will use the additional player afforded by man coverage and 1 deep safety to blitz 5 men. All the linebackers are useful blitzers so there can be no certainty which might blitz on a given play, particularly with the zone-blitz.
If ever there was a challenge this line could step up and take on this is it. Confusing blitzes from aggressive players? Nothing these guys haven’t seen before. All of them are multi-year starters. Hall is good in pass protection so long as he isn’t facing a good pass-rushing tackle…he isn’t. Ulatoski is most vulnerable to good pass-rushers who can double move to the inside. I may be wrong but nuanced pass-rush moves aren’t the name of the game for any of Alabama’s guys. They will overload blitz and punish you for your predicted reaction. The Texas line is capable of meeting that challenge and their failure to do so will result in the loss of the Heisman and the national championship.
4). Greg Davis vs. Nick Saban
"Your move white..."
Obvious mismatch. Davis has to go for broke in this game. Run misdirection early in the game. Prepare the line for the blitz and utilize the superior athletes at Wide Receiver with hot routes and deep shots that can punish a defense that won’t look so elite on their heels trying to chase Marquise Goodwin. The traditional slip screens you see in video games and occasionally in Texas games would be a welcome staple. Newton isn’t terribly fast but he is a steady weapon. A steady diet of Fig Newtons will make anyone sick in a hurry. Speaking of hurrying, a fast tempo mixed with clever plays did a number on this defense last year when Utah embarrassed the Crimson Tide and with Texas athletes it could make for a big game. Most of Auburn’s points came this way. Alabama’s size and aggressiveness is begging for a no-huddle attack.
5). Colt McCoy vs. himself
Colt McCoy is a far better quarterback than Greg McElroy. Saban wants this game to be Ingram vs. Colt. Muschamp will try his damndest to make it McElroy vs. McCoy. If you gave me odds on who is more likely to have more turnovers between McElroy and Colt I would stare into space for a while and then just start praying. The only time Nebraska would dare to allow Zac Lee to throw the ball was on deep routes off of play action where an interception was like a punt. I very much suspect that Alabama will have a similar strategy on when they choose to allow McElroy to make something happen. Colt, on the other hand, will be looking to make things happen all day long. But turnovers cannot happen like they did with Nebraska and Oklahoma, Texas can’t afford to give away points. Colt will likely have to win the game scrambling and making things happen and at the same time must shoulder this without putting the defense in holes that can allow Alabama to accumulate field goals and the odd touchdowns. If he succeeds, we can finally start the discussion about how he stacks up to his predecessor.
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