Alabama’s offense, while not as adept at piling up points as Texas’, is ultimately more difficult to dominate. Power running is the name of the game but the passing game can punish you with play-action, the screen game, and a few very good targets. Basically, they have the one dimension that’s dominant, like Texas’ short passing game, but then effective constraint plays that prevent teams from loading up against Ingram whereas Texas has not consistently punished teams with the run or deep pass.
Let’s begin with Ingram. He racked up 1500 yards, 15 touchdowns, never fumbled and won the Heisman trophy as the best offensive player on a team whose success was built on defense. Now that this topic is up I might as well state that I believe that Gerhart was a better running back candidate and Suh the most dominant player of the finalists. McCoy had a strong year but was part of a team (McCoy-Shipley) that saw 12 wins mostly because of dominant defense. Tebow was put there more out of respect than for recognition of a particularly brilliant season, just another fantastic one.
Just as Texas will rely on Colt to carry the offense Alabama would prefer Ingram to put up a Heisman defense and leave the game out of McElroy’s hands. McElroy is a good player himself and threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Occasionally he would make downfield throws from play-action plays or deep throws with Maze and Julio Jones going high-low on the same side of the field. He wasn’t asked to make a lot of contested throws like Colt has made and hasn’t shown the ability if asked. Texas will try to ask him to win the game with dangerous throws against coverage as often as possible. The best way is with a lead, the more likely way is on third downs. Even in games where the run has been stalled Saban would call 35-40 running plays to speed the clock and protect McElroy.
Alabama’s offensive line is a run-blocking machine. They drive defenders off the ball and they can handle a good d-line. They ran the ball for at least 100 yards on every opponent except for Auburn. Florida gave up 251 rushing yards and was gashed over the course of the game, a bad indicator for the Texas line. In pass protection they are considerably weaker. The right tackle is a clear weakness and Left tackle hasn’t been sorted out either after they lost Andre Smith last year to the NFL.
Maze and Julio Jones are the major receivers to worry about and both put up just over 500 yards on the season. Maze is the faster, deep threat while Jones is a big physical receiver with good speed himself. Ingram is dangerous on screens and tight end Colin Peek is another valuable check down option that frustrates efforts to shut down the run.
Auburn loaded up to stop the run and found some real success but ultimately were actually defeated by McElroy. Florida attempted the same to find Alabama coming out in spread sets and throwing the ball on their vaunted secondary. Muschamp will surely learn the valuable lesson from that game and not assume that loading 8 men in the box will result in victory even if it stops Ingram.
Alabama has a great punt returner in Javier Arenas (ironically the man likely to be assigned to Jordan Shipley) and will be dangerous in the kicking game. Texas has all of its special teams’ stars healthy, off suspension or eligible as the case may be, and ready to go now. After a month to practice they should have been able to focus on correcting issues with kickoff coverage. Christian Scott is back on the team and will resume serving on kickoff coverage. With Scott, Vaccarro and Antwan Cobb Texas should be much better in coverage for this game.
With that overview let’s examine the crucial matchups:
1). Predator vs. Swat Team Member 4
Drew Davis has struggled in pass protection this season. He’s the right tackle for Alabama and now he’s heading to the urban jungle to deal with what he thinks is a major urban drug bust. Sergio Kindle has destroyed running plays this season by simply blowing into the backfield or catching guys from behind. It is my belief that Texas will utilize its 3-4 defense against Alabama at various points to disrupt blocking schemes and create particular matchups. In such scenarios Kindle typically lines up outside the right tackle and assaults him with the speed rush. If you’ve seen recent Cowboys games you likely have some grasp of what a player like DeMarcus Ware can do in a ball game. Kindle needs to have a game that draws comparisons to Ware because this is a matchup Texas can’t fail to exploit as the upside is turnovers and punts.
2). Texas D-line vs. Alabama O-line
Given the failures by teams to control the Alabama passing game while loading up against the run, along with Muschamp’s strategies in other games against power-running teams over the last few years, I predict that Texas will most likely face Ingram with an honest front (as many defenders as blockers) except for situational circumstances like 3rd and 1.
Texas has a 3-4 alignment with Alexander/Randall as nose tackle with Acho and Lamarr Houston as 5-tech defensive ends. This alignment caused big problems for Nebraska when they tried to deal with Acho inside or asked someone to reach block Houston in time before he wrecked everything. Penetration is always the best way to kill a running game but particularly for the Longhorns who don’t want Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho having to fight off blocks but instead chasing obvious pursuit angles on the runners. The ‘bama line is good and they get help from the tight end and fullback in various formations, but Muschamp will try to scheme favorable matchups for the d-lineman do more with less.
The team that performed best against Alabama this season, Tennessee, did so by containing the running game AND the passing game. So again it’s essential that Texas not have to load 8 defenders in the box against the run and be able to create pressure with 3-5 defenders and induce difficult throws against a great secondary. It’s also possible Texas will throw some big blitzes ala the Tech game blitzes that nearly ended Taylor Potts.
3). Earl Thomas vs. McElroy
Earl Thomas’ interception vs. Oklahoma State was a perfect example of what he offers on defense, a rover who understands the offenses intent and can get to the ball in a hurry. McElroy hasn’t really seen anything like him this season and could be baited into a trap. Here’s where the performance by the D-line really comes in, a few pressures on McElroy which lead him into throwing into a tight spot can turn into easy points with Thomas and the rest of this secondary. Field position and non-offensive points are crucial in a game like this so it’s important that Thomas get the better end of this matchup and be responsible for a turnover or two by jumping a route or closing in on an attempt. Also of note, Greg McElroy looks like kid Robin Williams from Jumanji before he go beat up outside his dad's shoe factory.
4). Special Teams vs. Field Position
Alabama has Javier Arenas, a good punt returner with 1 touchdown this season and negligible performance from their kick returns. Texas has Shipley, who has 2 punt return tds on the season, and a host of talented kick returners. Shipley can be effective there, as we’ve seen, but Goodwin had a monster return against A&M and Monroe contributed 2 more on the season. Texas gave up 12 points to Nebraska because of field position. The Nebraska offense was virtually ineffective except for getting 10 yards here or there and getting in field goal range. Texas, on the other side, had to drive the length of the field to get any points.
Pinning Alabama on kickoffs with good coverage and the rugby punt is the start. A special teams or defensive touchdown is almost essential, I believe, for Texas to win this game unless they are consistently creating fantastic field position for Texas. A few big plays to Shipley here and there are likely but multiple full-field drives I have trouble imagining unless Greg Davis has finally found the wrinkle that will make his offense game-planning proof. The decade’s evidence seems to suggest otherwise. No team has blocked more kicks this decade than Texas, now would be a good time for a timely reminder of what a special teams monster Texas can be. As my uncle Johnny suggested, “I think 20 wins it don’t you?” Yes, I do.
5). Texas’ Back 7 vs. the SEC
The Big 12 is built around spreading teams out and killing them in space or individual matchups with speed, precision, and option routes/runs. Alabama just knocks you over and takes your lunch. Consequently, Texas’ back 7 is built to handle running sideline to sideline and covering people. One advantage of this is Texas preponderance of excellent man-coverage defenders. The only way teams have been able to hurt Texas is by having enough skill players to force Texas to cover good players with linebackers or white safeties OR by having a running threat at quarterback. The former takes about 4 good receiving options.
Last year Texas’ linebackers were less practiced and well versed in stopping power plays. This year they’ve made big steps and it has certainly been a point of emphasis in bowl practices. The one place Texas might want a big, nasty defender instead of a Big 12 style guy is at Middle linebacker but you aren’t upgrading Roddrick Muckelroy inside the tackles against Ingram with anyone who has played at Texas in the last 10 years (as my all-decade team established).
In other news, McElroy isn’t much of a running threat, I don’t care about his little tight-walk scramble against Florida. If Greg is forced to do that against Texas he’ll get in trouble fast. Reeling Florida wasn’t ready but lightning won’t strike twice. Texas will be unafraid of matching up Julio Jones and Maze in man coverage. Alabama lines up in 3-wide sets frequently, which might match Chykie against Julio Jones, Curtis Brown vs. Maze and Aaron Williams vs. the slot or tight end. None of these are matchups Texas will be hesitant about. The cover-1 robber with Gideon in deep support and Earl roving the middle of the field can sneak 7 defenders in the box and man-up the receivers with the deepest corp of corners Alabama has likely faced save maybe for Florida. There will probably be some 2-deep man under as well perhaps with 3 safeties on the field and Thomas on the slot receiver.
This is a big opportunity for Big 12 style squad to face up to the SEC mythological giant and prove to be a more athletic and versatile product. Florida’s defense is fantastic but was missing their Kindle (Carlos Dunlap) and had a defensive coordinator interviewing for other jobs. I’m think speed wins round 2 against this bunch and Alabama fails to reach 20.
6). The Wildcard
Christian Scott didn’t make significant progress towards a degree and was ruled academically ineligible for the 2009 season. When exams ended in December Scott became eligible again due to his academic recovery. I thought it was most likely that Scott would supplant Gideon as the safety opposite little Earl at the season’s onset and there were reports from practices and the players that suggested Scott might be the most talented safety on the team. Scott is a much larger defender at 6-1 210 pounds than either Gideon or Thomas. He’s also faster than Gideon and one of the more rangy players on the team. When Gideon was knocked out of the Kansas game the previous season Scott came in and almost immediately knocked the offending Jayhawk out along with the ball.
He’s a downhill safety who can make big plays in the running game while providing a little more coverage range in the deep field. Texas will certainly use him for kickoff coverage and have left open the possibility of him playing safety regularly in the game.
When Texas is in the “big nickel” where Earl Thomas moves down to cover the slot receiver and Gideon and Nolan Brewster divide the deep field in 2-deep coverage it’s possible Muschamp will insert Scott in as one of those safeties and suddenly the big nickel becomes a more valuable option against Alabama. Or, if Scott entirely replaces Gideon from practice results Texas might add a better run defender and overall player to the starting eleven. Personally I think seeing him instead of Brewster in the big nickel is the most likely optimist view as Muschamp will be wary of using players that might succumb to play-action fakes. It’s late in the season to jump in as an every down player. Consider Scott a potential ace in the hole though, and the Championship game a potential coming out party.
Big Nickel
7). Hunter Lawrence vs. Leigh Tiffin
Hunter Lawrence has made 22 of 25 field goal attempts and is virtually automatic inside of 50 yards including a long of 49. He nailed a final second kick to seal a conference championship from 46 yards (that would be that Nebraska game) and has the ghosts of Ryan Bailey (actually on the bench), David Pino, Kris Stockton and Dusty Mangum watching over him.
Tiffin has made 29 of 33 attempts and has a long of 50 yards although he’s slightly less consistent inside of 50. He’s certainly a good kicker but it was a blocked kick that sealed the deal for Alabama late, not a Tiffin make.
Let me put it this way, would you rather have a guy name Leigh or a Texan named Hunter kicking the field goal to win a national championship for your team. Case closed.
So that’s it. If I’ve painted a bleak picture then don’t hurry to check how Vegas perceives this game because the general consensus is that Alabama has the better team. I like the Texas defense more but Alabama’s is certainly one of the better in the country. Texas has a more dangerous offense but Alabama’s is more consistent and difficult to totally shut down. Special teams and the ability to create turnovers however are a distinct advantage for Mack who fields a player with 8 interceptions and a pair of brothers whose presence seems to will the ball to the Texas side (Emmanuel and Sam Acho with 6 total recovered fumbles, 5 forced fumbles and an interception). Finally, let me mention that Greg McElroy is a freshman and Colt a seasoned senior. Let’s the tip the scale back to even and call Texas 20-17 with a Hunter Lawrence field goal sealing the deal. Hook em.
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