The biggest question mark heading into the 2010 Longhorn football campaign would have regarded the growth and play of likely starter Garrett Gilbert. Then he was thrust into the National championship game and as Nathan Gaskey quickly pointed out, “he’ll never be under more pressure than that for the rest of his college career.”
Additionally, Garrett played pretty well and delivered a few strikes I’m not sure Colt was ever capable of. That said, I don’t expect Gilbert to be better than Colt next year but he has some arm strength and downfield accuracy that Colt didn’t, which was unsurprising because I have seen them throw back to back in open practices.
The Austin American Statesman has a muddled, uninformed piece up about question marks heading into next season but here I can give you a better presentation of what the team is looking for in spring practices and for the fall squad. Today the focus will be on offense, we’ll start with that ghost that has haunted Texas since Vince’s departure with nothing more than a temporary answer when Charles ascended to brilliance:
The Running game:
This is a focus every off season and many of the other team questions will come into play here. From a strategic level, with a first year starter at quarterback and the team’s leading receiver graduating coupled with a poor running game the last few seasons, having an effective running game in 2010 will be a priority.
Texas could not make teams pay for pinching off the short-pass offense employed with Colt with the lowlight being Nebraska’s Defense dominating both the short passing game and the running game by using 6 defensive backs and stuffing the Longhorn running plays with 1 linebacker and 4 defensive lineman.
The problems with the running game have been run over by me, the coaching staff and tons of commentators over and over again. Essentially I think it boils down to these:
1). Bad implementation of scheme: Texas installed the Outside zone-stretch as the base offensive play ala the Indianapolis Colts. They don’t block it well and don’t run it well. The running backs don’t read the creases well and don’t allow the blocks to set up or else the blocks fail in ways that zone-blocking should never fail. For instance, you should never have a negative play on a zone run, the whole scheme is supposed to prevent that very occurrence.
The outside zone, while an excellent base play that can be run with 3 wide receivers (like Texas likes to employ) demands a lot of repetitions to be run properly so the above mentioned mistakes don’t happen.
The West-Coast passing game that Texas used with Colt McCoy also demanded a lot of repetitions to be run properly because the receiver routes are timing based. Colt would read the defense and then make a timed throw into the soft parts of the coverage. It was run excellently, I don’t know if I’ve seen a better executed short-passing game in college football. However, such a scheme necessarily limits the amount of time that can be spent on the running game, and Texas chose the very running scheme that demands the most practice time. I can’t say for sure that Texas didn’t have time to run the zone-blocking AND West Coast passing attack in practice but I do know that the execution of the running game was poor.
2). Personnel: Chris Hall was moved to Center, I can only assume, for his speed in open space and experience making line calls. However, he was hopelessly weak at the point of attack and was frequently driven into the backfield. The rest of the line wasn’t necessarily suited for zone blocking and seemed chosen for experience and skill in pass protection.
Also extremely important is the Tight End position. The outside zone is heavily dependent on the tight end making a key block on the defensive end. If that block fails the play, designed to get outside quickly, is going to go badly quickly because that’s one of the first blocks the runner reads.
The Tight End is basically essential for an offense like Texas’ to have balance in the running game and passing game because it allows for base running and passing plays to be run from the same formations.
Next year Texas will have a very different line because 3 starters are graduating. The remaining 2, Michael Huey and Kyle Hix, are not particularly suited for zone blocking which best utilizes quick moving lineman who can make lateral movements.
Texas Tech blogger dedfischer once wrote on tortillaretort.com, “if your center isn’t a weakness, it’s a strength.” David Snow seems a lock to take on the job of starting center (since he did when Chris Hall went down in the National Title) and he qualifies for that condition. Thus, the addition of a tight end from one of a million scholarship possibilities, the inclusion of Snow on the line, and a possible departure from relying as much on the short passing game improve Texas chances at running the outside zone stretch as their base play.
While we’re here lets move on to
The Offensive Line:
Again, from the Right guard to the slot receiver everyone on the team is gone. That’s center Chris Hall (3 year starter), Left Guard Charlie Tanner (3 year starter) and the all important Left Tackle Adam Ulatoski (3 years at LT one at RT all starting).
Truly the only one I think Texas is likely to miss immediately is Ulatoski. He wasn’t an elite talent for the position but he was highly skilled in the fundamentals and most of McCoy’s problems from blind side rushers were either missed calls that led to unblocked rushers or someone like the Aggy defensive end Von Miller who disgraced just about everyone last season. His return next season is about as exciting as our chances at economic recovery, I dread the Aggy game next season.
However the future is bright because Texas has a few players with Left Tackle talent. There is mulleted back-up Luke Poehlman who is currently undersized and about whom I have no real opinion other than that I’m not sure Gilbert wants to see a mullet coming from the back of the helmet responsible for covering his blindside. Then we have the inexperienced talents Garret Porter and Mason Walters.
Porter I’ve seen play basketball in person and he has the mobility, long arms and lack of body fat you like to see from a Left Tackle. He redshirted this season however. Mason Walters played Center in high school and would have been playing guard as a sub this season but was injured. Given Texas’ recruitment of the no. 1 Center prospect in Texas (from my very own Cedar Park High School) and Snow’s presence I’m expecting Walters to see time at Left Tackle eventually because that’s where you would expect an offense to place its most valuable talent.
Starting Right Tackle Hix would be a terrible Left Tackle because he doesn’t move well laterally against speed rushers and his backup, Britt Mitchell, couldn’t beat out Mullet man to be back-up left tackle for Ulatoski so I’m forced to assume he’s rubbish in pass protection as well.
Center will be David Snow, who looked great as a freshman and mixed as a sophomore with his low being the Red River Shootout when OU’s McCoy nearly broke him down. At any rate, he’ll be an improvement over Chris Hall whatever Davis chooses to do.
Replacing Charlie Tanner is an undertaking that would seem to have been simple but failed to happen for 3 seasons. He was a very solid player but not the kind of elite talent Texas can field with their resource base. My bet is on 5 star Senior Tray Allen taking over there. Allen was considered one of the best lineman of his recruiting class and a potential Left Tackle extraordinaire. He never caught on but showed flashes of brilliance in practices, scrimmages and garbage time when moved to guard. A line with Walters, Allen, Snow, Huey and then Hix would be an athletic upgrade over last year’s group but will require seasoning to reach the same levels of pass protection. However, that is an acceptable timeline because Gilbert and the skill players are all young as well.
In conclusion, pass protection may be dicey on the edge as Walters or whoever has to learn the ropes but against the kind of interior pass rush that really bothered Texas last year there should actually be improvement with Hall being replaced by Snow.
With the foundation in place for Gilbert’s offense we can move on to:
The Skill Players:
Brandon Collins was a likely candidate to be the no. 2 receiver this season behind Shipley in replacement of Cosby. Then he was ruled academically ineligible, then he was arrested for armed robbery and that was it. Dan Buckner was statistically the no. 2 receiver in the offense this season and then he was arrested in college station and transferred. Well then.
Marquise Goodwin surprised a lot beginning the season as a track player who might earn a spot on the team and finishing as the leading receiver in the OU game and 2nd receiver in the National Championship. His value just in running the WR screen makes him a starter in my mind. He went for 70 yards against Alabama just with 3 screen pass receptions.
Malcolm Williams has been and will be until potentially fall camp, the most talented receiver on the squad. He’s a downfield threat because of his size and speed and when he catches the short routes he can accelerate past guys in a hurry. His blocking on screens and running plays is also invaluable. However, he drops the ball. He’s like the Terrel Owens of the Longhorns without the bad locker room stuff or frequent pass opportunities.
After those two I’m less certain about the others. Kirkendoll was great in games that didn’t pit him against Texas-level talent and John Chiles is just learning the position but hasn’t shown the work ethic and consistency. I think the staff decided a while ago that Chiles was one of the more explosive talents and have continued to employ him under that assumption but he hasn’t shown it on the field.
There are other guys that haven’t seen the field like DeSean Hales, a shifty former running back who got good reports from bowl practices, and Greg Timmons who is a 6-3 guy with good fundamentals. Incoming however are Mike Davis and Chris Jones, 2 highly valued recruits, and Darius White the number one receiver in the national recruiting class. Nothing is set in stone here really.
At running back there is a huge collection of talent. Chris Whaley was last year’s prize RB recruit but unless he’s a game-breaking talent I think Tre Newton will hold down the job of starting running back because he knows how to find the crease in the zone running game, he is an excellent pass-blocker, and he can receive coming out of the backfield.
DJ Monroe would be a great third down back if he had those latter 2 skills. Nevertheless his speed on sweeps makes him a valuable weapon to be used like Percy Harvin in the offense next year.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The Best football programs in the country.
There have been some tremendous shake-ups in the world of college football over the last month which have forced me to apply my reasoning power as the assistant to the VP of Common Sense.
First Urban Meyer retired…then he came back. Then there was speculation that Will Muschamp would leave Texas for X job. Pete Carrol abandoned USC like an unwanted growing puppy and that snake Lane Kiffin slithered in. Now there is the question of who takes the Tennessee job, whether Muschamp stays at UT or goes to Tennessee and it all amounts to one big question for me:
Which NCAA football program is in the best shape right now? Which power programs are in the best shape to make attempts on the ultimate goal in college football? Winning money, er, I mean championships. So I’m doing this the only way I know how…a top 15 list. Top 15 programs in terms of position to win heading into the new decade.
Honorable Mentions:
West Virginia, always have a chance in the Big East.
Nebraska: Coming back but have poor recruiting base and compete with OU and Texas every year.
Oregon St: also on the up and up but competing with big time powers.
California: Let’s be real Chad, if they were going to do anything it would have happened already.
Auburn: As long as they have OC Gus Malzahn I think they’ll be competitive. I still think Chizik is a poor coach overall though.
15). Boise State.
They narrowly edge out TCU for “team that can beat anyone in one game but will never have a chance to win the championship.” That’s probably not accurate, if there hadn’t been 2 undefeated superpowers this season one of Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise St. would have been in. Ultimately it’s a long shot though. So despite the wonderful performance of Boise State in recent years and strong state of the program, they are on the outside looking in.
14). Virgina Tech:
Because of Frank Beamer’s coaching of special teams, defense, and option football Virgina Tech consistenly affords themselves the chance to be good every year and compete in the BCS picture. Recruiting has been solid and development even better. Additionally, they are a powerhouse for where they are.
13). Michigan
They look to be in terrible shape and Rich Rodriguez is on the hot seat. Also, the main city of Michigan, Detroit, is a virtual ghost town that resembles Manhattan in “Escape from New York” more and more each day. So why are they so high? For one, Michigan is a traditional powerhouse with a great resource base. Recruiting is down a ways (again, dealing with a terrible state) but I have a lot of faith in the following:
a). Rich Rodriguez and his staff: He has one of the best strength and conditioning coaches in the country. They used to transform guys at West Virgina. Additionally, they are converting the school from having big, clunky pro-style offenses to having fast zone-option teams. Eventually I think they get it together.
b). The potential of Michigan in the Big 10. I think the Big 10 has become wildly underrated, but it’s still an easier place to thrive than the SEC I must admit.
c). Even if Rodriguez is gone the school still has some money and resources to pluck someone. I think it’s likely they will reach the top 10 again. It would help if the auto industry could get their act together.
12). Notre Dame
Another classic Northern power weakened by poor coaching choices and a questionable recruiting base. It’s simply really hard to pluck guys from SEC country and Texas has a lot to offer but you are picking behind Texas, OU, LSU and other Big 12 schools for a lot of these kids. Nevertheless, when you have resources like Michigan or Notre Dame you can still compete for recruits and coaches. I think the hiring of Brian Kelly is a good one for providing Notre Dame with a coach who can win with normal college players.
Charlie Weiss ran an NFL offense and had terrible defensive squads. He required the best lineman, quarterbacks and receivers (and he got some) to execute the offense effectively enough to dominate at the college level. Brian Kelly runs a spread offense, knows the Ohio river valley recruiting territory, the Texas grounds, and has a much simpler and better understanding of how to run scheme at the college level.
11). Oregon
Oregon has that awesome deal with Nike that provides them with new uniforms all the time, national attention, and money. Coach Chip Kelly is another spread guru who has constructed some tremendous offenses at Oregon as OC and now Head Coach.
The recruiting base is pretty solid with California a modern untapped Gold mine since USC can’t take all the talent and there aren’t many other huge powers in the region to compete with given UCLA’s decline and California’s impotence. Take a look at the players Oregon has put in the NFL the past few years and you’ll get a sense of the talent level of their squads. This season saw Oregon in the Rose Bowl and I don’t think that will be a short-lived phenomenon.
10). Miami
They haven’t done a ton recently save for some early season success but they are getting back to big time Florida recruiting and have really loaded up on recent recruiting classes. Head Coach Randy Shannon is everything that the old U wasn’t. Talent mixed in with a blue collar attitude, discipline and respect. The old U were undisciplined, disrespectful, and supremely talented and competitive, perhaps nowhere more than their own practices.
Anyways, in the modern College world, a Florida school that can do things right is a top 10 program.
9). Georgia
And here comes the SEC. Georgia is one of the more effective recruiting schools in the country, living off of the fat of the land down in the south. With all that talent they can’t help but knock over some people from time to time, and the defensive coaching has been very good.
However, I have about as much respect for Mark Richt as a offensive mind as I do Greg Davis at Texas. Provided with great talent they can out execute the lesser squads but get in worlds of trouble against defenses that can match up on their athletes or expose weak points. Anyways, they reach the top 10 despite Mark Richt and being in the SEC because they are talented enough year in and out to have a shot at the title. They would do well to get off Florida’s bad list though.
8). Penn State
I’m guessing Joe Paterno coaches at Penn State until he is dead since he’s been there something like 50 years. The state of Penn st. football has been about the same for decades. Paterno’s tenure there has no equivalent unless you can imagine if Darrel K. Royal still coached at Texas.
Given that fact, Penn State is often slow to adjust to modern schemes and trends but usually on the cusp. They build fantastic linebackers and they’ve been close to national championships in recent years. They’re adoption of the spread offense paired with their traditional Cover-3 style defense dominated by fierce linebackers earns them a spot on in the top 10 but their presence in the Big 10 (again an easier conference to navigate given the right situation) pushes them over Miami and Georgia.
7). Oklahoma
Oklahoma was probably at or near the top of this list at the beginning of the decade. Stoops defenses were terrorizing the Big 12, recruiting was fantastic and Texas looked like they didn’t know how to defend against the body shots, much less throw a counterpunch.
Then Big Game Bob started losing big games. Coaches worked out how to attack their aggressive defense and the offenses were usually short of being the total package. Quarterback play has been poor in years not featuring Nate Heupel and Sam Bradford (Jason White’s Heisman was a bad joke) and they have lost their stranglehold on Dallas recruiting which has vaulted Texas above them.
Worst of all, Mack Brown has won 4 of 5 games in the Cotton Bowl and recent Big 12 success has come through the back door despite losses to Texas rather than as a result of Crimson dominance. All that said, OU is still pulling in great players. Stoops defenses have never shocked people like in 2000 but have still been very good, and their no-huddle offense from last year set the trend nationally. If not for Texas…
6). LSU
They have a recent championship and tons of great recruiting from Louisiana (where they are often uncontested) and the Houston and East Texas area. Les Miles is something less than a genius and his division will often be more than he can overcome but the program has proven they can backdoor their way into national championships with superior talent and the recognition of being an SEC squad.
On offense they are trying to run some spread schemes but have faltered due to Ryan Perriloux turning out to be some kind of menace and no emergence as of yet from Russel Shephard.
On defense they’ve been somewhat underachieving given their talent level and the level of difficulty they face in bad SEC offenses. They are a great coach short from being a top 5 program.
5). The Ohio State University
Jim Tressel can’t quite give up his uber-conservative play-calling which has hamstrung the potential of his offenses against talented defenses that know what’s coming. However his recruiting and use of Terrelle Pryor and Troy Smith before demonstrate the beginning of an understanding of how to break away from his predictable power-run based offense towards a more versatile and unstoppable unit.
On defense they have virtually no peer. They produce NFL defenders every season and show inventiveness on defense you wouldn’t expect from watching the play-calling on offense. Sweater-vest has also shocked Texas in all of their engagements demonstrating in each occasion how Texas is best defended while also showing up with offensive game plans that took Texas by surprise.
In national championships they have looked weak and unimaginative on offense and have come up short time and time again. Still, Tressel defense, plus Ohio recruiting, plus Pryor puts them in great shape for the new decade.
4). Florida
Only no. 4 you say? Ridiculous, they are pulling in a ridiculous recruiting class, have won 2 titles in 4 years and retain Urban Meyer and his crazy spread option. Florida has a long term recruiting base, staff vision for implementing the state’s talent. Urban Meyer has shown talent before for tweaking his offense to suit his quarterbacks and a knack for burning defenses in big games. The overall emphasis on speed at Florida has proven the stupid “you can’t run that spread stuff against SEC speed” talk to be idiotic. Not only did he do so immediately, with a non-running quarterback, but he then built the fastest team in the conference.
But, it’s unclear if Meyer can hang around with his health issues. Is he really back? Can he handle the responsibilities and work habits that got Florida this far? He just lost some more valuable staff pieces, including their defensive coordinator who was behind the units that really won those 2 championships for the Gators, this after losing the offensive coordinator the following year. As we saw with Carrol’s USC, the loss of coordinators and staff adds up eventually. It’s hard to rebuild the chemistry and philosophy with revolving doors in important spots. Definitely a lot of work for a coach with health problems, not to mention his stiff competition week to week and the rise of another program you know is coming soon.
3). USC
What? Let me start with this. Lane Kiffin is a snake. The way he sold himself and what he was about to Tennessee reeked of arrogance, lack of appreciation for anything not-USC, and overall entitlement from the Coach’s son. I don’t think he’s a phenomenal schemer (in the football sense that is), overall teacher, or person.
But he’s a great mastermind. He surrounded himself with a great staff at Tennessee hiring Ed Orgeron (recruiting wizard, d-line mastermind and former head coach) and papa Monte Kiffin (tampa-2 defensive mastermind). Actually, let me review that part in parenthesis, this man invented the modern tampa-2 defense. This is the defense that Tony Dungy has used at Tampa Bay (obviously), Indianapolis and was copied by coordinators Lovie Smith (Bears defense, you heard much about it?) and Mike Tomlin at Minnesota and later Pittsburgh. It’s one of the most dominant defensive schemes in the NFL today. Monte Kiffin made it and now he’s making his son look good.
Now the word on the street is that Lane has added former USC great Norm Chow to the fold as offensive coordinator. Chow is another big time pro-style xs and os guy from the West Coast school of thought (short, timed passes. The stuff Greg Davis runs at Texas).
Essentially, little Kiffin has assembled an NFL coaching staff at a location where a team can actually run pro-style schemes and get away with it. California, as I’ve mentioned, has an enormous recruiting base and little competition for USC from other major programs. I don’t think another program will have the pedigree and genius of Kiffin’s staff here and they all seem intent on re-living the glory days of the early Pete Carrol era.
That’s one problem here, I’m not sure if all this “remember the good old days” stuff will fly trying to recreate something that has already past. Another problem is that Carrol probably left for a reason. USC could be facing major NCAA sanctions. Also, you would hope that Lane would be on the receiving end of some justice.
2). Alabama
Alabama is back. Nick Saban is exercising his Napoleon syndrome in a conference where he won’t likely lack for competitors to challenge him and bring out his obsessive work demons. The state of Alabama is pretty recruit rich and there is enough going on there now to draw other southern and Texas recruits to Saban’s fold.
The coaching there is good on both sides of the ball. The defense is sophisticated, tricky and well executed while the offense is simple and brutal. They’ll always be tough to beat and as they continue to draw Saban recruits it won’t get easier. Very little is going bad here. It’s easier to maintain a strong running game system and good defense than a West Coast offense year in and year out. Also, despite his slithering past I think Saban is going to be here for some time. So why is Alabama only number two?
Well first of all, the difference between Saban and Jim Tressel is not great. If you look at Saban’s record in some big games you won’t see the fiery destroyer of worlds the media hype would have you believe. His defense is great, like Tressel’s, but not necessarily as versatile as the numbers suggest. Texas almost torched them with a freshman quarterback thrown into the title game after one of the greatest quarterbacks ever was injured.The overall plan and execution against reeling Florida has covered up a 7 yard per play average by the Florida offense that came short in the red zone from blowing up the scoreboard. The offense, while well coached and consistently good, will never be like the 2005 Texas offense, or the 2004-05 USC offenses, or the better Florida offenses. In college football, it’s hard to be king if you aren’t bringing the biggest gun. Also, they have fewer overall resources than at number 1.
1). Texas
Surprised? Mack Brown has built something that will last and a program that he’ll have a tough time giving up before a few more years with all the talent and potential.
When it comes to recruiting, Texas has been able to select their talent from arguably the deepest state in the country and then mold it with some of the finer coaches available (except on O-line what are they doing?). With the recent success in the Dallas area Texas has overcome the stigma there of being racist and combined with their success in the annual Dallas game the last 5 years and the growth of Central Texas football has Texas in great position in this state.
The overall coaching of the talent is fantastic. The offenses have been successfully built around quarterback strengths (even if it took some time) and have consistently pounded the lesser competition while showing just enough versatility in recent big games.
The defense is now in the hands of one of the better defensive teachers and minds in the game (all those SEC schools are constantly trying to lure him away) and the long-term stability of the program has been placed in his hands.
Also the money, it’s real good at Texas right now. So let’s review Texas’ situation in the upcoming decade:
1). Reeling Rivals: Tommy Tuberville is a great coach and Texas Tech is a looming danger next season. But the year to year danger from the Mike Leach offenses and the tremendous hassle of trying to prepare for that offense every year was a big burden and an easy stumbling block. Well that’s gone now. Texas A&M only looks good against Texas and Mike Sherman’s project wavers from week to week. Oklahoma is reeling. They’ll be good, for sure, but they’ve been put in their place.
2). Great recruiting. This is just a constant.
3). Staff stability. If there’s one thing we’ve seen about Greg Davis it’s that he isn’t going anywhere. Duane Akina withstood a demotion to keep coaching up first rate defensive backs in Austin and we discussed Muschamp.
It’s easy to foresee how there will be seasons in the Big 12 like 2009 where Texas has great pieces in place and can roll over the rest of these squads. Easier, I have argued, then it is for any other school in the nation. We’ll see if I’m right.
First Urban Meyer retired…then he came back. Then there was speculation that Will Muschamp would leave Texas for X job. Pete Carrol abandoned USC like an unwanted growing puppy and that snake Lane Kiffin slithered in. Now there is the question of who takes the Tennessee job, whether Muschamp stays at UT or goes to Tennessee and it all amounts to one big question for me:
Which NCAA football program is in the best shape right now? Which power programs are in the best shape to make attempts on the ultimate goal in college football? Winning money, er, I mean championships. So I’m doing this the only way I know how…a top 15 list. Top 15 programs in terms of position to win heading into the new decade.
Honorable Mentions:
West Virginia, always have a chance in the Big East.
Nebraska: Coming back but have poor recruiting base and compete with OU and Texas every year.
Oregon St: also on the up and up but competing with big time powers.
California: Let’s be real Chad, if they were going to do anything it would have happened already.
Auburn: As long as they have OC Gus Malzahn I think they’ll be competitive. I still think Chizik is a poor coach overall though.
15). Boise State.
They narrowly edge out TCU for “team that can beat anyone in one game but will never have a chance to win the championship.” That’s probably not accurate, if there hadn’t been 2 undefeated superpowers this season one of Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise St. would have been in. Ultimately it’s a long shot though. So despite the wonderful performance of Boise State in recent years and strong state of the program, they are on the outside looking in.
14). Virgina Tech:
Because of Frank Beamer’s coaching of special teams, defense, and option football Virgina Tech consistenly affords themselves the chance to be good every year and compete in the BCS picture. Recruiting has been solid and development even better. Additionally, they are a powerhouse for where they are.
13). Michigan
They look to be in terrible shape and Rich Rodriguez is on the hot seat. Also, the main city of Michigan, Detroit, is a virtual ghost town that resembles Manhattan in “Escape from New York” more and more each day. So why are they so high? For one, Michigan is a traditional powerhouse with a great resource base. Recruiting is down a ways (again, dealing with a terrible state) but I have a lot of faith in the following:
a). Rich Rodriguez and his staff: He has one of the best strength and conditioning coaches in the country. They used to transform guys at West Virgina. Additionally, they are converting the school from having big, clunky pro-style offenses to having fast zone-option teams. Eventually I think they get it together.
b). The potential of Michigan in the Big 10. I think the Big 10 has become wildly underrated, but it’s still an easier place to thrive than the SEC I must admit.
c). Even if Rodriguez is gone the school still has some money and resources to pluck someone. I think it’s likely they will reach the top 10 again. It would help if the auto industry could get their act together.
12). Notre Dame
Another classic Northern power weakened by poor coaching choices and a questionable recruiting base. It’s simply really hard to pluck guys from SEC country and Texas has a lot to offer but you are picking behind Texas, OU, LSU and other Big 12 schools for a lot of these kids. Nevertheless, when you have resources like Michigan or Notre Dame you can still compete for recruits and coaches. I think the hiring of Brian Kelly is a good one for providing Notre Dame with a coach who can win with normal college players.
Charlie Weiss ran an NFL offense and had terrible defensive squads. He required the best lineman, quarterbacks and receivers (and he got some) to execute the offense effectively enough to dominate at the college level. Brian Kelly runs a spread offense, knows the Ohio river valley recruiting territory, the Texas grounds, and has a much simpler and better understanding of how to run scheme at the college level.
11). Oregon
Oregon has that awesome deal with Nike that provides them with new uniforms all the time, national attention, and money. Coach Chip Kelly is another spread guru who has constructed some tremendous offenses at Oregon as OC and now Head Coach.
The recruiting base is pretty solid with California a modern untapped Gold mine since USC can’t take all the talent and there aren’t many other huge powers in the region to compete with given UCLA’s decline and California’s impotence. Take a look at the players Oregon has put in the NFL the past few years and you’ll get a sense of the talent level of their squads. This season saw Oregon in the Rose Bowl and I don’t think that will be a short-lived phenomenon.
10). Miami
They haven’t done a ton recently save for some early season success but they are getting back to big time Florida recruiting and have really loaded up on recent recruiting classes. Head Coach Randy Shannon is everything that the old U wasn’t. Talent mixed in with a blue collar attitude, discipline and respect. The old U were undisciplined, disrespectful, and supremely talented and competitive, perhaps nowhere more than their own practices.
Anyways, in the modern College world, a Florida school that can do things right is a top 10 program.
9). Georgia
And here comes the SEC. Georgia is one of the more effective recruiting schools in the country, living off of the fat of the land down in the south. With all that talent they can’t help but knock over some people from time to time, and the defensive coaching has been very good.
However, I have about as much respect for Mark Richt as a offensive mind as I do Greg Davis at Texas. Provided with great talent they can out execute the lesser squads but get in worlds of trouble against defenses that can match up on their athletes or expose weak points. Anyways, they reach the top 10 despite Mark Richt and being in the SEC because they are talented enough year in and out to have a shot at the title. They would do well to get off Florida’s bad list though.
8). Penn State
I’m guessing Joe Paterno coaches at Penn State until he is dead since he’s been there something like 50 years. The state of Penn st. football has been about the same for decades. Paterno’s tenure there has no equivalent unless you can imagine if Darrel K. Royal still coached at Texas.
Given that fact, Penn State is often slow to adjust to modern schemes and trends but usually on the cusp. They build fantastic linebackers and they’ve been close to national championships in recent years. They’re adoption of the spread offense paired with their traditional Cover-3 style defense dominated by fierce linebackers earns them a spot on in the top 10 but their presence in the Big 10 (again an easier conference to navigate given the right situation) pushes them over Miami and Georgia.
7). Oklahoma
Oklahoma was probably at or near the top of this list at the beginning of the decade. Stoops defenses were terrorizing the Big 12, recruiting was fantastic and Texas looked like they didn’t know how to defend against the body shots, much less throw a counterpunch.
Then Big Game Bob started losing big games. Coaches worked out how to attack their aggressive defense and the offenses were usually short of being the total package. Quarterback play has been poor in years not featuring Nate Heupel and Sam Bradford (Jason White’s Heisman was a bad joke) and they have lost their stranglehold on Dallas recruiting which has vaulted Texas above them.
Worst of all, Mack Brown has won 4 of 5 games in the Cotton Bowl and recent Big 12 success has come through the back door despite losses to Texas rather than as a result of Crimson dominance. All that said, OU is still pulling in great players. Stoops defenses have never shocked people like in 2000 but have still been very good, and their no-huddle offense from last year set the trend nationally. If not for Texas…
6). LSU
They have a recent championship and tons of great recruiting from Louisiana (where they are often uncontested) and the Houston and East Texas area. Les Miles is something less than a genius and his division will often be more than he can overcome but the program has proven they can backdoor their way into national championships with superior talent and the recognition of being an SEC squad.
On offense they are trying to run some spread schemes but have faltered due to Ryan Perriloux turning out to be some kind of menace and no emergence as of yet from Russel Shephard.
On defense they’ve been somewhat underachieving given their talent level and the level of difficulty they face in bad SEC offenses. They are a great coach short from being a top 5 program.
5). The Ohio State University
Jim Tressel can’t quite give up his uber-conservative play-calling which has hamstrung the potential of his offenses against talented defenses that know what’s coming. However his recruiting and use of Terrelle Pryor and Troy Smith before demonstrate the beginning of an understanding of how to break away from his predictable power-run based offense towards a more versatile and unstoppable unit.
On defense they have virtually no peer. They produce NFL defenders every season and show inventiveness on defense you wouldn’t expect from watching the play-calling on offense. Sweater-vest has also shocked Texas in all of their engagements demonstrating in each occasion how Texas is best defended while also showing up with offensive game plans that took Texas by surprise.
In national championships they have looked weak and unimaginative on offense and have come up short time and time again. Still, Tressel defense, plus Ohio recruiting, plus Pryor puts them in great shape for the new decade.
4). Florida
Only no. 4 you say? Ridiculous, they are pulling in a ridiculous recruiting class, have won 2 titles in 4 years and retain Urban Meyer and his crazy spread option. Florida has a long term recruiting base, staff vision for implementing the state’s talent. Urban Meyer has shown talent before for tweaking his offense to suit his quarterbacks and a knack for burning defenses in big games. The overall emphasis on speed at Florida has proven the stupid “you can’t run that spread stuff against SEC speed” talk to be idiotic. Not only did he do so immediately, with a non-running quarterback, but he then built the fastest team in the conference.
But, it’s unclear if Meyer can hang around with his health issues. Is he really back? Can he handle the responsibilities and work habits that got Florida this far? He just lost some more valuable staff pieces, including their defensive coordinator who was behind the units that really won those 2 championships for the Gators, this after losing the offensive coordinator the following year. As we saw with Carrol’s USC, the loss of coordinators and staff adds up eventually. It’s hard to rebuild the chemistry and philosophy with revolving doors in important spots. Definitely a lot of work for a coach with health problems, not to mention his stiff competition week to week and the rise of another program you know is coming soon.
3). USC
What? Let me start with this. Lane Kiffin is a snake. The way he sold himself and what he was about to Tennessee reeked of arrogance, lack of appreciation for anything not-USC, and overall entitlement from the Coach’s son. I don’t think he’s a phenomenal schemer (in the football sense that is), overall teacher, or person.
But he’s a great mastermind. He surrounded himself with a great staff at Tennessee hiring Ed Orgeron (recruiting wizard, d-line mastermind and former head coach) and papa Monte Kiffin (tampa-2 defensive mastermind). Actually, let me review that part in parenthesis, this man invented the modern tampa-2 defense. This is the defense that Tony Dungy has used at Tampa Bay (obviously), Indianapolis and was copied by coordinators Lovie Smith (Bears defense, you heard much about it?) and Mike Tomlin at Minnesota and later Pittsburgh. It’s one of the most dominant defensive schemes in the NFL today. Monte Kiffin made it and now he’s making his son look good.
Now the word on the street is that Lane has added former USC great Norm Chow to the fold as offensive coordinator. Chow is another big time pro-style xs and os guy from the West Coast school of thought (short, timed passes. The stuff Greg Davis runs at Texas).
Essentially, little Kiffin has assembled an NFL coaching staff at a location where a team can actually run pro-style schemes and get away with it. California, as I’ve mentioned, has an enormous recruiting base and little competition for USC from other major programs. I don’t think another program will have the pedigree and genius of Kiffin’s staff here and they all seem intent on re-living the glory days of the early Pete Carrol era.
That’s one problem here, I’m not sure if all this “remember the good old days” stuff will fly trying to recreate something that has already past. Another problem is that Carrol probably left for a reason. USC could be facing major NCAA sanctions. Also, you would hope that Lane would be on the receiving end of some justice.
2). Alabama
Alabama is back. Nick Saban is exercising his Napoleon syndrome in a conference where he won’t likely lack for competitors to challenge him and bring out his obsessive work demons. The state of Alabama is pretty recruit rich and there is enough going on there now to draw other southern and Texas recruits to Saban’s fold.
The coaching there is good on both sides of the ball. The defense is sophisticated, tricky and well executed while the offense is simple and brutal. They’ll always be tough to beat and as they continue to draw Saban recruits it won’t get easier. Very little is going bad here. It’s easier to maintain a strong running game system and good defense than a West Coast offense year in and year out. Also, despite his slithering past I think Saban is going to be here for some time. So why is Alabama only number two?
Well first of all, the difference between Saban and Jim Tressel is not great. If you look at Saban’s record in some big games you won’t see the fiery destroyer of worlds the media hype would have you believe. His defense is great, like Tressel’s, but not necessarily as versatile as the numbers suggest. Texas almost torched them with a freshman quarterback thrown into the title game after one of the greatest quarterbacks ever was injured.The overall plan and execution against reeling Florida has covered up a 7 yard per play average by the Florida offense that came short in the red zone from blowing up the scoreboard. The offense, while well coached and consistently good, will never be like the 2005 Texas offense, or the 2004-05 USC offenses, or the better Florida offenses. In college football, it’s hard to be king if you aren’t bringing the biggest gun. Also, they have fewer overall resources than at number 1.
1). Texas
Surprised? Mack Brown has built something that will last and a program that he’ll have a tough time giving up before a few more years with all the talent and potential.
When it comes to recruiting, Texas has been able to select their talent from arguably the deepest state in the country and then mold it with some of the finer coaches available (except on O-line what are they doing?). With the recent success in the Dallas area Texas has overcome the stigma there of being racist and combined with their success in the annual Dallas game the last 5 years and the growth of Central Texas football has Texas in great position in this state.
The overall coaching of the talent is fantastic. The offenses have been successfully built around quarterback strengths (even if it took some time) and have consistently pounded the lesser competition while showing just enough versatility in recent big games.
The defense is now in the hands of one of the better defensive teachers and minds in the game (all those SEC schools are constantly trying to lure him away) and the long-term stability of the program has been placed in his hands.
Also the money, it’s real good at Texas right now. So let’s review Texas’ situation in the upcoming decade:
1). Reeling Rivals: Tommy Tuberville is a great coach and Texas Tech is a looming danger next season. But the year to year danger from the Mike Leach offenses and the tremendous hassle of trying to prepare for that offense every year was a big burden and an easy stumbling block. Well that’s gone now. Texas A&M only looks good against Texas and Mike Sherman’s project wavers from week to week. Oklahoma is reeling. They’ll be good, for sure, but they’ve been put in their place.
2). Great recruiting. This is just a constant.
3). Staff stability. If there’s one thing we’ve seen about Greg Davis it’s that he isn’t going anywhere. Duane Akina withstood a demotion to keep coaching up first rate defensive backs in Austin and we discussed Muschamp.
It’s easy to foresee how there will be seasons in the Big 12 like 2009 where Texas has great pieces in place and can roll over the rest of these squads. Easier, I have argued, then it is for any other school in the nation. We’ll see if I’m right.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Championship game thoughts
Final thoughts on 2009-10
I hinted that Texas had the weapons to burn Alabama but I was suprised at how easily they were almost able to pull it off. If not for...
1). What if Colt hadn’t been hurt?
Ugh, you couldn’t have written a more terrible and undeserving end to Colt’s time at Texas. Injured 5 plays into the game while 2-2 and leading the offense down the field. There were a few points here where you Texas has no one to blame for themselves for what happened. For instance, all year I said “Why aren’t they playing Gilbert more?” He should have been rotated into meaningful series against teams like Baylor or other weaker conference foes. If he isn’t redshirting and he is the real backup then he needs real game experience. Instead we had to watch him grow up over the course of a national championship game.
Secondly, the play call there was bad. I understand the appreciation Greg Davis has for the speed option and its usefulness in getting the ball to the running back on the perimeter. Our scouting of Alabama said they were slow and vulnerable to our speed on the edge and the sweeps and Receiver tunnel screens demonstrated that point really well. However, as dedfischer on tortillaretort.com pointed out,
“A stretch option play with reach blocking? Really? I can’t recall for sure, and feel free to correct me, but weren’t you always coached on defense to stretch the option out? I swear I think that’s right. Think about that for a minute and you’ll find the epitome of why Texas lost this game.”
This play has been a terrible one for 2 seasons for Texas. The speed option is a good play used well by other teams but Texas never blocks it effectively and 9 times out of 10 it puts Colt in a no-win situation where he can pitch the ball for a huge loss or take a big hit for a smaller loss. Go back and watch the OU game and you’ll see a promising Texas drive started by a turnover killed by a speed option run for a 9 yard loss.
It was a fluke hit that happened to hurt Colt where hundreds of hits before hadn’t, but really that’s the chance you take when your offense is dependent on one quarterback. I talked about this with my first post on this blog when I argued that some teams in the NFL should try treating quarterback like another position (acceptable to see injury) and run an option offense.
Now that I’ve said all that let me also add one more caveat before making a big point about the Colt injury, it’s impossible to know if Texas would have won. Alabama ran the ball very effectively and only slowed down in the 3rd quarter when protecting a lead. You have to conclude that Alabama is the better team and worthy champion. Texas wasn’t prepared for a Colt injury and were risking it all the time by making the offense Colt-dependent, having shaky offensive-line play, being Shipley dependent, and calling that stupid speed option play in the National Championship.
So what if Colt hadn’t been hurt? I think Texas wins that game. Alabama’s defense, I pondered the day of the game and moreso as the game went on, was an inferior unit to the one Texas faced at the Cotton Bowl in October. Their safeties were slow and couldn’t turn their hips in coverage. Remember when Texas A&M went 5-wide and picked on Blake Gideon, Brewster and the linebackers in coverage? Texas did that hardcore in the 2nd half. Alabama was lining up safeties on Jordan Shipley, a stupid strategy that was quickly resulting in big points from the Texas offense.
Alabama’s running game was effective, but you can run for 200 yards without scoring much just as you can throw for 200 yards without scoring much. It all adds up the same. Alabama’s passing game was just about the most helpless one Texas faced all season. They were no better equipped to handle Kindle and the Texas pass rush than they were to hold off an elephant stampede. Greg McElroy, one of the worst quarterbacks I saw this entire season, completed 6 of 11 passes and was sacked 5 times. In other words, when Alabama threw the ball one of 2 things happened and they each happened about evenly, McElroy would complete a pass or be sacked.
This is particularly relevant given Texas’ early special teams’ success and field position. If McCoy could have led Texas to an early lead and forced McElroy to have to throw the ball Texas could have won in a route. At the least it’s hard to see how Alabama could have scored enough to match Texas because they couldn’t handle Texas’ speed at running back, wide receiver, or defensive line. I think this game could have played out either like the Utah game last year when Alabama got down early and blown out, or Texas may have won a game that was scored in the 20s and 30s where Alabama is out of their element.
However at the end of the day, Texas’ wide receivers had 17 drops, Gilbert had to pull a super-gritty performance out with no experience, and the offensive line gave up a game-costing sack/fumble when they had 5 lineman to block 3 rushers because of a miscommunication. Also, Alabama had great defensive schemes, strong play from the front 7, and easily the best running game Texas faced all year. They are a worthy champion.
2). The Saban love-fest is stupid. Look, the guy lost to Utah in a bowl game and easily could have lost this game had he not been lucky enough to see the winningest quarterback in NCAA history go down at the onset of the game. All the attention paid to his 2nd Championship distracted from the fact that it was Alabama’s championship (the other came at SEC rival LSU). All of this is the media’s fault, Saban was quick to credit Alabama and their football program and players. He’s a little uptight, defensive-minded napoleon syndrome, SEC coach who gets a mad amount of attention for what amounts to being one of a several great coaches in the NCAA right now.
3). The shovel-pass; while a complete disaster, questionable, and might have cost the game, should not be laid at the coach’s feet as the reason why Texas lost. I heard some idiot on the radio blaming Mack Brown for the whole game for calling the shovel pass and accusing Mack of blaming it’s failure on Gilbert. First of all, that blame was never placed by Mack. If anyone was to be blamed it was DJ Monroe for playing hot potato with the pass. The story here is this, when you have a freshman making a throw under pressure to another freshman calamity is possible. You can say that it was too much of a risk, but as Mack correctly stated, the shovel pass is one of the lowest risk plays you can run. This was the equivalent of running a running back draw on 3rd and 15. It usually doesn’t work but it has the potential and it’s safer than forcing a throw downfield. Mack was searching for some momentum to head into halftime with. Maybe it was unnecessary and clearly it was disastrous, you can blame the execution or reliance on freshman on the coaches if you want, but the reasoning was sound and the risk was very low despite the results.
4). Texas loses a lot from this team, this was the big title shot. Alabama might be in position to repeat next year, Trent Richardson is coming back, McElroy will be back but they’d be just as good with anyone back there who can hand a ball off or stare at a wide receiver on a play-action pass.
Namely, Texas loses the class of defensive players that took over 2 years ago with Muschamp and transformed this unit into a nationally elite unit. Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, Roddrick Muckelroy, Earl Thomas are leaving, each the best at his respective level of defense. Lamarr Houston was one of the best defensive tackles in the whole nation this season. He had 10 tackles against Alabama, including a sack and a few tackles for loss. If not for Suh and Gerald McCoy he would have received credit as being an elite tackle.
On offense a generation of lineman are passing on along with the legendary Colt-Jordan connection. Chris Hall went down and the game and was replaced with the superior David Snow, Adam Ulatoski was a worthy player who is graduating. Charlie Tanner was a questionable talent who worked his way into a starting role and held on by knowledge and seniority. The next generation line could be considerably more talented as whole, though it will certainly struggle some next year.
We’ll talk soon about the holes and question marks for the 2010 unit but I’ll finish today with Garret Gilbert. My only concern heading into the 2nd half of the championship game was that Texas be able to break 10 for pride’s sake and that Gilbert not be scarred for life and crippled as a quarterback. Instead he pulled out what was almost a legendary performance that could have rivaled Vince Young’s Rose Bowl masterpieces and lost at the end on a play that wasn’t his fault. He’s a keeper for sure and he can burn teams downfield with his arm. I’m welcoming the Garret Gilbert era with arms open wide, apparently so are Mack Brown and Greg Davis as it’s rumoured that Mack Brown plans to stick around 3 more years (the exact remaining eligibility of Gilbert at Texas) and has been waiting with Greg for Gilbert “their whole careers”. It’s also rumoured that this time line is acceptable to Muschamp…thank God.
I hinted that Texas had the weapons to burn Alabama but I was suprised at how easily they were almost able to pull it off. If not for...
1). What if Colt hadn’t been hurt?
Ugh, you couldn’t have written a more terrible and undeserving end to Colt’s time at Texas. Injured 5 plays into the game while 2-2 and leading the offense down the field. There were a few points here where you Texas has no one to blame for themselves for what happened. For instance, all year I said “Why aren’t they playing Gilbert more?” He should have been rotated into meaningful series against teams like Baylor or other weaker conference foes. If he isn’t redshirting and he is the real backup then he needs real game experience. Instead we had to watch him grow up over the course of a national championship game.
Secondly, the play call there was bad. I understand the appreciation Greg Davis has for the speed option and its usefulness in getting the ball to the running back on the perimeter. Our scouting of Alabama said they were slow and vulnerable to our speed on the edge and the sweeps and Receiver tunnel screens demonstrated that point really well. However, as dedfischer on tortillaretort.com pointed out,
“A stretch option play with reach blocking? Really? I can’t recall for sure, and feel free to correct me, but weren’t you always coached on defense to stretch the option out? I swear I think that’s right. Think about that for a minute and you’ll find the epitome of why Texas lost this game.”
This play has been a terrible one for 2 seasons for Texas. The speed option is a good play used well by other teams but Texas never blocks it effectively and 9 times out of 10 it puts Colt in a no-win situation where he can pitch the ball for a huge loss or take a big hit for a smaller loss. Go back and watch the OU game and you’ll see a promising Texas drive started by a turnover killed by a speed option run for a 9 yard loss.
It was a fluke hit that happened to hurt Colt where hundreds of hits before hadn’t, but really that’s the chance you take when your offense is dependent on one quarterback. I talked about this with my first post on this blog when I argued that some teams in the NFL should try treating quarterback like another position (acceptable to see injury) and run an option offense.
Now that I’ve said all that let me also add one more caveat before making a big point about the Colt injury, it’s impossible to know if Texas would have won. Alabama ran the ball very effectively and only slowed down in the 3rd quarter when protecting a lead. You have to conclude that Alabama is the better team and worthy champion. Texas wasn’t prepared for a Colt injury and were risking it all the time by making the offense Colt-dependent, having shaky offensive-line play, being Shipley dependent, and calling that stupid speed option play in the National Championship.
So what if Colt hadn’t been hurt? I think Texas wins that game. Alabama’s defense, I pondered the day of the game and moreso as the game went on, was an inferior unit to the one Texas faced at the Cotton Bowl in October. Their safeties were slow and couldn’t turn their hips in coverage. Remember when Texas A&M went 5-wide and picked on Blake Gideon, Brewster and the linebackers in coverage? Texas did that hardcore in the 2nd half. Alabama was lining up safeties on Jordan Shipley, a stupid strategy that was quickly resulting in big points from the Texas offense.
Alabama’s running game was effective, but you can run for 200 yards without scoring much just as you can throw for 200 yards without scoring much. It all adds up the same. Alabama’s passing game was just about the most helpless one Texas faced all season. They were no better equipped to handle Kindle and the Texas pass rush than they were to hold off an elephant stampede. Greg McElroy, one of the worst quarterbacks I saw this entire season, completed 6 of 11 passes and was sacked 5 times. In other words, when Alabama threw the ball one of 2 things happened and they each happened about evenly, McElroy would complete a pass or be sacked.
This is particularly relevant given Texas’ early special teams’ success and field position. If McCoy could have led Texas to an early lead and forced McElroy to have to throw the ball Texas could have won in a route. At the least it’s hard to see how Alabama could have scored enough to match Texas because they couldn’t handle Texas’ speed at running back, wide receiver, or defensive line. I think this game could have played out either like the Utah game last year when Alabama got down early and blown out, or Texas may have won a game that was scored in the 20s and 30s where Alabama is out of their element.
However at the end of the day, Texas’ wide receivers had 17 drops, Gilbert had to pull a super-gritty performance out with no experience, and the offensive line gave up a game-costing sack/fumble when they had 5 lineman to block 3 rushers because of a miscommunication. Also, Alabama had great defensive schemes, strong play from the front 7, and easily the best running game Texas faced all year. They are a worthy champion.
2). The Saban love-fest is stupid. Look, the guy lost to Utah in a bowl game and easily could have lost this game had he not been lucky enough to see the winningest quarterback in NCAA history go down at the onset of the game. All the attention paid to his 2nd Championship distracted from the fact that it was Alabama’s championship (the other came at SEC rival LSU). All of this is the media’s fault, Saban was quick to credit Alabama and their football program and players. He’s a little uptight, defensive-minded napoleon syndrome, SEC coach who gets a mad amount of attention for what amounts to being one of a several great coaches in the NCAA right now.
3). The shovel-pass; while a complete disaster, questionable, and might have cost the game, should not be laid at the coach’s feet as the reason why Texas lost. I heard some idiot on the radio blaming Mack Brown for the whole game for calling the shovel pass and accusing Mack of blaming it’s failure on Gilbert. First of all, that blame was never placed by Mack. If anyone was to be blamed it was DJ Monroe for playing hot potato with the pass. The story here is this, when you have a freshman making a throw under pressure to another freshman calamity is possible. You can say that it was too much of a risk, but as Mack correctly stated, the shovel pass is one of the lowest risk plays you can run. This was the equivalent of running a running back draw on 3rd and 15. It usually doesn’t work but it has the potential and it’s safer than forcing a throw downfield. Mack was searching for some momentum to head into halftime with. Maybe it was unnecessary and clearly it was disastrous, you can blame the execution or reliance on freshman on the coaches if you want, but the reasoning was sound and the risk was very low despite the results.
4). Texas loses a lot from this team, this was the big title shot. Alabama might be in position to repeat next year, Trent Richardson is coming back, McElroy will be back but they’d be just as good with anyone back there who can hand a ball off or stare at a wide receiver on a play-action pass.
Namely, Texas loses the class of defensive players that took over 2 years ago with Muschamp and transformed this unit into a nationally elite unit. Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, Roddrick Muckelroy, Earl Thomas are leaving, each the best at his respective level of defense. Lamarr Houston was one of the best defensive tackles in the whole nation this season. He had 10 tackles against Alabama, including a sack and a few tackles for loss. If not for Suh and Gerald McCoy he would have received credit as being an elite tackle.
On offense a generation of lineman are passing on along with the legendary Colt-Jordan connection. Chris Hall went down and the game and was replaced with the superior David Snow, Adam Ulatoski was a worthy player who is graduating. Charlie Tanner was a questionable talent who worked his way into a starting role and held on by knowledge and seniority. The next generation line could be considerably more talented as whole, though it will certainly struggle some next year.
We’ll talk soon about the holes and question marks for the 2010 unit but I’ll finish today with Garret Gilbert. My only concern heading into the 2nd half of the championship game was that Texas be able to break 10 for pride’s sake and that Gilbert not be scarred for life and crippled as a quarterback. Instead he pulled out what was almost a legendary performance that could have rivaled Vince Young’s Rose Bowl masterpieces and lost at the end on a play that wasn’t his fault. He’s a keeper for sure and he can burn teams downfield with his arm. I’m welcoming the Garret Gilbert era with arms open wide, apparently so are Mack Brown and Greg Davis as it’s rumoured that Mack Brown plans to stick around 3 more years (the exact remaining eligibility of Gilbert at Texas) and has been waiting with Greg for Gilbert “their whole careers”. It’s also rumoured that this time line is acceptable to Muschamp…thank God.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Defense and Special teams, or How Texas wins the National Championship
You can read the scouts preview on ESPN.com now. It amounts to basically the same analysis provided here in regards to the Alabama Defense vs. the Texas offense. Unless Texas has some big wrinkles to throw off the ‘bama defenders or a new offensive line there probably won’t be much scoring by the good guys on Thursday.
Alabama’s offense, while not as adept at piling up points as Texas’, is ultimately more difficult to dominate. Power running is the name of the game but the passing game can punish you with play-action, the screen game, and a few very good targets. Basically, they have the one dimension that’s dominant, like Texas’ short passing game, but then effective constraint plays that prevent teams from loading up against Ingram whereas Texas has not consistently punished teams with the run or deep pass.
Let’s begin with Ingram. He racked up 1500 yards, 15 touchdowns, never fumbled and won the Heisman trophy as the best offensive player on a team whose success was built on defense. Now that this topic is up I might as well state that I believe that Gerhart was a better running back candidate and Suh the most dominant player of the finalists. McCoy had a strong year but was part of a team (McCoy-Shipley) that saw 12 wins mostly because of dominant defense. Tebow was put there more out of respect than for recognition of a particularly brilliant season, just another fantastic one.
Just as Texas will rely on Colt to carry the offense Alabama would prefer Ingram to put up a Heisman defense and leave the game out of McElroy’s hands. McElroy is a good player himself and threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Occasionally he would make downfield throws from play-action plays or deep throws with Maze and Julio Jones going high-low on the same side of the field. He wasn’t asked to make a lot of contested throws like Colt has made and hasn’t shown the ability if asked. Texas will try to ask him to win the game with dangerous throws against coverage as often as possible. The best way is with a lead, the more likely way is on third downs. Even in games where the run has been stalled Saban would call 35-40 running plays to speed the clock and protect McElroy.
Alabama’s offensive line is a run-blocking machine. They drive defenders off the ball and they can handle a good d-line. They ran the ball for at least 100 yards on every opponent except for Auburn. Florida gave up 251 rushing yards and was gashed over the course of the game, a bad indicator for the Texas line. In pass protection they are considerably weaker. The right tackle is a clear weakness and Left tackle hasn’t been sorted out either after they lost Andre Smith last year to the NFL.
Maze and Julio Jones are the major receivers to worry about and both put up just over 500 yards on the season. Maze is the faster, deep threat while Jones is a big physical receiver with good speed himself. Ingram is dangerous on screens and tight end Colin Peek is another valuable check down option that frustrates efforts to shut down the run.
Auburn loaded up to stop the run and found some real success but ultimately were actually defeated by McElroy. Florida attempted the same to find Alabama coming out in spread sets and throwing the ball on their vaunted secondary. Muschamp will surely learn the valuable lesson from that game and not assume that loading 8 men in the box will result in victory even if it stops Ingram.
Alabama has a great punt returner in Javier Arenas (ironically the man likely to be assigned to Jordan Shipley) and will be dangerous in the kicking game. Texas has all of its special teams’ stars healthy, off suspension or eligible as the case may be, and ready to go now. After a month to practice they should have been able to focus on correcting issues with kickoff coverage. Christian Scott is back on the team and will resume serving on kickoff coverage. With Scott, Vaccarro and Antwan Cobb Texas should be much better in coverage for this game.
With that overview let’s examine the crucial matchups:
1). Predator vs. Swat Team Member 4
Drew Davis has struggled in pass protection this season. He’s the right tackle for Alabama and now he’s heading to the urban jungle to deal with what he thinks is a major urban drug bust. Sergio Kindle has destroyed running plays this season by simply blowing into the backfield or catching guys from behind. It is my belief that Texas will utilize its 3-4 defense against Alabama at various points to disrupt blocking schemes and create particular matchups. In such scenarios Kindle typically lines up outside the right tackle and assaults him with the speed rush. If you’ve seen recent Cowboys games you likely have some grasp of what a player like DeMarcus Ware can do in a ball game. Kindle needs to have a game that draws comparisons to Ware because this is a matchup Texas can’t fail to exploit as the upside is turnovers and punts.
2). Texas D-line vs. Alabama O-line
Given the failures by teams to control the Alabama passing game while loading up against the run, along with Muschamp’s strategies in other games against power-running teams over the last few years, I predict that Texas will most likely face Ingram with an honest front (as many defenders as blockers) except for situational circumstances like 3rd and 1.
Texas has a 3-4 alignment with Alexander/Randall as nose tackle with Acho and Lamarr Houston as 5-tech defensive ends. This alignment caused big problems for Nebraska when they tried to deal with Acho inside or asked someone to reach block Houston in time before he wrecked everything. Penetration is always the best way to kill a running game but particularly for the Longhorns who don’t want Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho having to fight off blocks but instead chasing obvious pursuit angles on the runners. The ‘bama line is good and they get help from the tight end and fullback in various formations, but Muschamp will try to scheme favorable matchups for the d-lineman do more with less.
The team that performed best against Alabama this season, Tennessee, did so by containing the running game AND the passing game. So again it’s essential that Texas not have to load 8 defenders in the box against the run and be able to create pressure with 3-5 defenders and induce difficult throws against a great secondary. It’s also possible Texas will throw some big blitzes ala the Tech game blitzes that nearly ended Taylor Potts.
3). Earl Thomas vs. McElroy
Earl Thomas’ interception vs. Oklahoma State was a perfect example of what he offers on defense, a rover who understands the offenses intent and can get to the ball in a hurry. McElroy hasn’t really seen anything like him this season and could be baited into a trap. Here’s where the performance by the D-line really comes in, a few pressures on McElroy which lead him into throwing into a tight spot can turn into easy points with Thomas and the rest of this secondary. Field position and non-offensive points are crucial in a game like this so it’s important that Thomas get the better end of this matchup and be responsible for a turnover or two by jumping a route or closing in on an attempt. Also of note, Greg McElroy looks like kid Robin Williams from Jumanji before he go beat up outside his dad's shoe factory.
4). Special Teams vs. Field Position
Alabama has Javier Arenas, a good punt returner with 1 touchdown this season and negligible performance from their kick returns. Texas has Shipley, who has 2 punt return tds on the season, and a host of talented kick returners. Shipley can be effective there, as we’ve seen, but Goodwin had a monster return against A&M and Monroe contributed 2 more on the season. Texas gave up 12 points to Nebraska because of field position. The Nebraska offense was virtually ineffective except for getting 10 yards here or there and getting in field goal range. Texas, on the other side, had to drive the length of the field to get any points.
Pinning Alabama on kickoffs with good coverage and the rugby punt is the start. A special teams or defensive touchdown is almost essential, I believe, for Texas to win this game unless they are consistently creating fantastic field position for Texas. A few big plays to Shipley here and there are likely but multiple full-field drives I have trouble imagining unless Greg Davis has finally found the wrinkle that will make his offense game-planning proof. The decade’s evidence seems to suggest otherwise. No team has blocked more kicks this decade than Texas, now would be a good time for a timely reminder of what a special teams monster Texas can be. As my uncle Johnny suggested, “I think 20 wins it don’t you?” Yes, I do.
5). Texas’ Back 7 vs. the SEC
The Big 12 is built around spreading teams out and killing them in space or individual matchups with speed, precision, and option routes/runs. Alabama just knocks you over and takes your lunch. Consequently, Texas’ back 7 is built to handle running sideline to sideline and covering people. One advantage of this is Texas preponderance of excellent man-coverage defenders. The only way teams have been able to hurt Texas is by having enough skill players to force Texas to cover good players with linebackers or white safeties OR by having a running threat at quarterback. The former takes about 4 good receiving options.
Last year Texas’ linebackers were less practiced and well versed in stopping power plays. This year they’ve made big steps and it has certainly been a point of emphasis in bowl practices. The one place Texas might want a big, nasty defender instead of a Big 12 style guy is at Middle linebacker but you aren’t upgrading Roddrick Muckelroy inside the tackles against Ingram with anyone who has played at Texas in the last 10 years (as my all-decade team established).
In other news, McElroy isn’t much of a running threat, I don’t care about his little tight-walk scramble against Florida. If Greg is forced to do that against Texas he’ll get in trouble fast. Reeling Florida wasn’t ready but lightning won’t strike twice. Texas will be unafraid of matching up Julio Jones and Maze in man coverage. Alabama lines up in 3-wide sets frequently, which might match Chykie against Julio Jones, Curtis Brown vs. Maze and Aaron Williams vs. the slot or tight end. None of these are matchups Texas will be hesitant about. The cover-1 robber with Gideon in deep support and Earl roving the middle of the field can sneak 7 defenders in the box and man-up the receivers with the deepest corp of corners Alabama has likely faced save maybe for Florida. There will probably be some 2-deep man under as well perhaps with 3 safeties on the field and Thomas on the slot receiver.
This is a big opportunity for Big 12 style squad to face up to the SEC mythological giant and prove to be a more athletic and versatile product. Florida’s defense is fantastic but was missing their Kindle (Carlos Dunlap) and had a defensive coordinator interviewing for other jobs. I’m think speed wins round 2 against this bunch and Alabama fails to reach 20.
6). The Wildcard
Christian Scott didn’t make significant progress towards a degree and was ruled academically ineligible for the 2009 season. When exams ended in December Scott became eligible again due to his academic recovery. I thought it was most likely that Scott would supplant Gideon as the safety opposite little Earl at the season’s onset and there were reports from practices and the players that suggested Scott might be the most talented safety on the team. Scott is a much larger defender at 6-1 210 pounds than either Gideon or Thomas. He’s also faster than Gideon and one of the more rangy players on the team. When Gideon was knocked out of the Kansas game the previous season Scott came in and almost immediately knocked the offending Jayhawk out along with the ball.
He’s a downhill safety who can make big plays in the running game while providing a little more coverage range in the deep field. Texas will certainly use him for kickoff coverage and have left open the possibility of him playing safety regularly in the game.
When Texas is in the “big nickel” where Earl Thomas moves down to cover the slot receiver and Gideon and Nolan Brewster divide the deep field in 2-deep coverage it’s possible Muschamp will insert Scott in as one of those safeties and suddenly the big nickel becomes a more valuable option against Alabama. Or, if Scott entirely replaces Gideon from practice results Texas might add a better run defender and overall player to the starting eleven. Personally I think seeing him instead of Brewster in the big nickel is the most likely optimist view as Muschamp will be wary of using players that might succumb to play-action fakes. It’s late in the season to jump in as an every down player. Consider Scott a potential ace in the hole though, and the Championship game a potential coming out party.
Big Nickel
7). Hunter Lawrence vs. Leigh Tiffin
Hunter Lawrence has made 22 of 25 field goal attempts and is virtually automatic inside of 50 yards including a long of 49. He nailed a final second kick to seal a conference championship from 46 yards (that would be that Nebraska game) and has the ghosts of Ryan Bailey (actually on the bench), David Pino, Kris Stockton and Dusty Mangum watching over him.
Tiffin has made 29 of 33 attempts and has a long of 50 yards although he’s slightly less consistent inside of 50. He’s certainly a good kicker but it was a blocked kick that sealed the deal for Alabama late, not a Tiffin make.
Let me put it this way, would you rather have a guy name Leigh or a Texan named Hunter kicking the field goal to win a national championship for your team. Case closed.
So that’s it. If I’ve painted a bleak picture then don’t hurry to check how Vegas perceives this game because the general consensus is that Alabama has the better team. I like the Texas defense more but Alabama’s is certainly one of the better in the country. Texas has a more dangerous offense but Alabama’s is more consistent and difficult to totally shut down. Special teams and the ability to create turnovers however are a distinct advantage for Mack who fields a player with 8 interceptions and a pair of brothers whose presence seems to will the ball to the Texas side (Emmanuel and Sam Acho with 6 total recovered fumbles, 5 forced fumbles and an interception). Finally, let me mention that Greg McElroy is a freshman and Colt a seasoned senior. Let’s the tip the scale back to even and call Texas 20-17 with a Hunter Lawrence field goal sealing the deal. Hook em.
Alabama’s offense, while not as adept at piling up points as Texas’, is ultimately more difficult to dominate. Power running is the name of the game but the passing game can punish you with play-action, the screen game, and a few very good targets. Basically, they have the one dimension that’s dominant, like Texas’ short passing game, but then effective constraint plays that prevent teams from loading up against Ingram whereas Texas has not consistently punished teams with the run or deep pass.
Let’s begin with Ingram. He racked up 1500 yards, 15 touchdowns, never fumbled and won the Heisman trophy as the best offensive player on a team whose success was built on defense. Now that this topic is up I might as well state that I believe that Gerhart was a better running back candidate and Suh the most dominant player of the finalists. McCoy had a strong year but was part of a team (McCoy-Shipley) that saw 12 wins mostly because of dominant defense. Tebow was put there more out of respect than for recognition of a particularly brilliant season, just another fantastic one.
Just as Texas will rely on Colt to carry the offense Alabama would prefer Ingram to put up a Heisman defense and leave the game out of McElroy’s hands. McElroy is a good player himself and threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Occasionally he would make downfield throws from play-action plays or deep throws with Maze and Julio Jones going high-low on the same side of the field. He wasn’t asked to make a lot of contested throws like Colt has made and hasn’t shown the ability if asked. Texas will try to ask him to win the game with dangerous throws against coverage as often as possible. The best way is with a lead, the more likely way is on third downs. Even in games where the run has been stalled Saban would call 35-40 running plays to speed the clock and protect McElroy.
Alabama’s offensive line is a run-blocking machine. They drive defenders off the ball and they can handle a good d-line. They ran the ball for at least 100 yards on every opponent except for Auburn. Florida gave up 251 rushing yards and was gashed over the course of the game, a bad indicator for the Texas line. In pass protection they are considerably weaker. The right tackle is a clear weakness and Left tackle hasn’t been sorted out either after they lost Andre Smith last year to the NFL.
Maze and Julio Jones are the major receivers to worry about and both put up just over 500 yards on the season. Maze is the faster, deep threat while Jones is a big physical receiver with good speed himself. Ingram is dangerous on screens and tight end Colin Peek is another valuable check down option that frustrates efforts to shut down the run.
Auburn loaded up to stop the run and found some real success but ultimately were actually defeated by McElroy. Florida attempted the same to find Alabama coming out in spread sets and throwing the ball on their vaunted secondary. Muschamp will surely learn the valuable lesson from that game and not assume that loading 8 men in the box will result in victory even if it stops Ingram.
Alabama has a great punt returner in Javier Arenas (ironically the man likely to be assigned to Jordan Shipley) and will be dangerous in the kicking game. Texas has all of its special teams’ stars healthy, off suspension or eligible as the case may be, and ready to go now. After a month to practice they should have been able to focus on correcting issues with kickoff coverage. Christian Scott is back on the team and will resume serving on kickoff coverage. With Scott, Vaccarro and Antwan Cobb Texas should be much better in coverage for this game.
With that overview let’s examine the crucial matchups:
1). Predator vs. Swat Team Member 4
Drew Davis has struggled in pass protection this season. He’s the right tackle for Alabama and now he’s heading to the urban jungle to deal with what he thinks is a major urban drug bust. Sergio Kindle has destroyed running plays this season by simply blowing into the backfield or catching guys from behind. It is my belief that Texas will utilize its 3-4 defense against Alabama at various points to disrupt blocking schemes and create particular matchups. In such scenarios Kindle typically lines up outside the right tackle and assaults him with the speed rush. If you’ve seen recent Cowboys games you likely have some grasp of what a player like DeMarcus Ware can do in a ball game. Kindle needs to have a game that draws comparisons to Ware because this is a matchup Texas can’t fail to exploit as the upside is turnovers and punts.
2). Texas D-line vs. Alabama O-line
Given the failures by teams to control the Alabama passing game while loading up against the run, along with Muschamp’s strategies in other games against power-running teams over the last few years, I predict that Texas will most likely face Ingram with an honest front (as many defenders as blockers) except for situational circumstances like 3rd and 1.
Texas has a 3-4 alignment with Alexander/Randall as nose tackle with Acho and Lamarr Houston as 5-tech defensive ends. This alignment caused big problems for Nebraska when they tried to deal with Acho inside or asked someone to reach block Houston in time before he wrecked everything. Penetration is always the best way to kill a running game but particularly for the Longhorns who don’t want Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho having to fight off blocks but instead chasing obvious pursuit angles on the runners. The ‘bama line is good and they get help from the tight end and fullback in various formations, but Muschamp will try to scheme favorable matchups for the d-lineman do more with less.
The team that performed best against Alabama this season, Tennessee, did so by containing the running game AND the passing game. So again it’s essential that Texas not have to load 8 defenders in the box against the run and be able to create pressure with 3-5 defenders and induce difficult throws against a great secondary. It’s also possible Texas will throw some big blitzes ala the Tech game blitzes that nearly ended Taylor Potts.
3). Earl Thomas vs. McElroy
Earl Thomas’ interception vs. Oklahoma State was a perfect example of what he offers on defense, a rover who understands the offenses intent and can get to the ball in a hurry. McElroy hasn’t really seen anything like him this season and could be baited into a trap. Here’s where the performance by the D-line really comes in, a few pressures on McElroy which lead him into throwing into a tight spot can turn into easy points with Thomas and the rest of this secondary. Field position and non-offensive points are crucial in a game like this so it’s important that Thomas get the better end of this matchup and be responsible for a turnover or two by jumping a route or closing in on an attempt. Also of note, Greg McElroy looks like kid Robin Williams from Jumanji before he go beat up outside his dad's shoe factory.
4). Special Teams vs. Field Position
Alabama has Javier Arenas, a good punt returner with 1 touchdown this season and negligible performance from their kick returns. Texas has Shipley, who has 2 punt return tds on the season, and a host of talented kick returners. Shipley can be effective there, as we’ve seen, but Goodwin had a monster return against A&M and Monroe contributed 2 more on the season. Texas gave up 12 points to Nebraska because of field position. The Nebraska offense was virtually ineffective except for getting 10 yards here or there and getting in field goal range. Texas, on the other side, had to drive the length of the field to get any points.
Pinning Alabama on kickoffs with good coverage and the rugby punt is the start. A special teams or defensive touchdown is almost essential, I believe, for Texas to win this game unless they are consistently creating fantastic field position for Texas. A few big plays to Shipley here and there are likely but multiple full-field drives I have trouble imagining unless Greg Davis has finally found the wrinkle that will make his offense game-planning proof. The decade’s evidence seems to suggest otherwise. No team has blocked more kicks this decade than Texas, now would be a good time for a timely reminder of what a special teams monster Texas can be. As my uncle Johnny suggested, “I think 20 wins it don’t you?” Yes, I do.
5). Texas’ Back 7 vs. the SEC
The Big 12 is built around spreading teams out and killing them in space or individual matchups with speed, precision, and option routes/runs. Alabama just knocks you over and takes your lunch. Consequently, Texas’ back 7 is built to handle running sideline to sideline and covering people. One advantage of this is Texas preponderance of excellent man-coverage defenders. The only way teams have been able to hurt Texas is by having enough skill players to force Texas to cover good players with linebackers or white safeties OR by having a running threat at quarterback. The former takes about 4 good receiving options.
Last year Texas’ linebackers were less practiced and well versed in stopping power plays. This year they’ve made big steps and it has certainly been a point of emphasis in bowl practices. The one place Texas might want a big, nasty defender instead of a Big 12 style guy is at Middle linebacker but you aren’t upgrading Roddrick Muckelroy inside the tackles against Ingram with anyone who has played at Texas in the last 10 years (as my all-decade team established).
In other news, McElroy isn’t much of a running threat, I don’t care about his little tight-walk scramble against Florida. If Greg is forced to do that against Texas he’ll get in trouble fast. Reeling Florida wasn’t ready but lightning won’t strike twice. Texas will be unafraid of matching up Julio Jones and Maze in man coverage. Alabama lines up in 3-wide sets frequently, which might match Chykie against Julio Jones, Curtis Brown vs. Maze and Aaron Williams vs. the slot or tight end. None of these are matchups Texas will be hesitant about. The cover-1 robber with Gideon in deep support and Earl roving the middle of the field can sneak 7 defenders in the box and man-up the receivers with the deepest corp of corners Alabama has likely faced save maybe for Florida. There will probably be some 2-deep man under as well perhaps with 3 safeties on the field and Thomas on the slot receiver.
This is a big opportunity for Big 12 style squad to face up to the SEC mythological giant and prove to be a more athletic and versatile product. Florida’s defense is fantastic but was missing their Kindle (Carlos Dunlap) and had a defensive coordinator interviewing for other jobs. I’m think speed wins round 2 against this bunch and Alabama fails to reach 20.
6). The Wildcard
Christian Scott didn’t make significant progress towards a degree and was ruled academically ineligible for the 2009 season. When exams ended in December Scott became eligible again due to his academic recovery. I thought it was most likely that Scott would supplant Gideon as the safety opposite little Earl at the season’s onset and there were reports from practices and the players that suggested Scott might be the most talented safety on the team. Scott is a much larger defender at 6-1 210 pounds than either Gideon or Thomas. He’s also faster than Gideon and one of the more rangy players on the team. When Gideon was knocked out of the Kansas game the previous season Scott came in and almost immediately knocked the offending Jayhawk out along with the ball.
He’s a downhill safety who can make big plays in the running game while providing a little more coverage range in the deep field. Texas will certainly use him for kickoff coverage and have left open the possibility of him playing safety regularly in the game.
When Texas is in the “big nickel” where Earl Thomas moves down to cover the slot receiver and Gideon and Nolan Brewster divide the deep field in 2-deep coverage it’s possible Muschamp will insert Scott in as one of those safeties and suddenly the big nickel becomes a more valuable option against Alabama. Or, if Scott entirely replaces Gideon from practice results Texas might add a better run defender and overall player to the starting eleven. Personally I think seeing him instead of Brewster in the big nickel is the most likely optimist view as Muschamp will be wary of using players that might succumb to play-action fakes. It’s late in the season to jump in as an every down player. Consider Scott a potential ace in the hole though, and the Championship game a potential coming out party.
Big Nickel
7). Hunter Lawrence vs. Leigh Tiffin
Hunter Lawrence has made 22 of 25 field goal attempts and is virtually automatic inside of 50 yards including a long of 49. He nailed a final second kick to seal a conference championship from 46 yards (that would be that Nebraska game) and has the ghosts of Ryan Bailey (actually on the bench), David Pino, Kris Stockton and Dusty Mangum watching over him.
Tiffin has made 29 of 33 attempts and has a long of 50 yards although he’s slightly less consistent inside of 50. He’s certainly a good kicker but it was a blocked kick that sealed the deal for Alabama late, not a Tiffin make.
Let me put it this way, would you rather have a guy name Leigh or a Texan named Hunter kicking the field goal to win a national championship for your team. Case closed.
So that’s it. If I’ve painted a bleak picture then don’t hurry to check how Vegas perceives this game because the general consensus is that Alabama has the better team. I like the Texas defense more but Alabama’s is certainly one of the better in the country. Texas has a more dangerous offense but Alabama’s is more consistent and difficult to totally shut down. Special teams and the ability to create turnovers however are a distinct advantage for Mack who fields a player with 8 interceptions and a pair of brothers whose presence seems to will the ball to the Texas side (Emmanuel and Sam Acho with 6 total recovered fumbles, 5 forced fumbles and an interception). Finally, let me mention that Greg McElroy is a freshman and Colt a seasoned senior. Let’s the tip the scale back to even and call Texas 20-17 with a Hunter Lawrence field goal sealing the deal. Hook em.
Friday, January 1, 2010
The Texas All-Decade Team: Football
We’ve just passed the typical point where the “All Decade” teams are assembled on the blogs and major sports media sites so it seems like common sense to put up my own take on the All-decade team for the Texas Longhorn football program. If there is any sport in any decade that I’m qualified to assemble the all-decade team for it just might be Texas football however beyond just my memory I’ve also examined stats, context, and overall aura of greatness.
I also found it most useful to steal Bill Simmons technique in “the Book of Basketball” when he chooses his wine cellar team. The premise is this, if highly skilled Martians came and challenged the earth to a basketball game for the fate of humanity and you could assemble a team by using a time machine and picking players from their best seasons who would you select. In the case of college football, many stars only have 1 or 2 seasons as upperclassmen and developed starters. I’ve chosen the best seasons by Longhorns that I’m aware of for this squad. If one player had a 3 year span of excellence but couldn’t surpass a single season of elite play from a player at the same position he was left off. The goal here is to win a single season championship (or single game against the Martians), longevity isn’t weighed.
Offense: We’re running the Vince Young zone-read offense although we might be a little more aggressive in the passing game than Texas in 04 or 05 given the depth of receivers to work with. Vince was hitting a lot of guys standing still, we’ll try and get them on the move.
QB: Vince Young 05’
Vince Young’s national championship season. Perhaps the greatest offense in college football history was built entirely around Vince’s running skills, improvisational skills, and leadership. No one else on that offensive squad, besides the O-line and David Thomas, could really be described at that point in their career as more than a role player. Vince was an absolute force in 2005 and the best defense in college football that year couldn’t stop him at home with an intensely hostile crowd. Even if Colt should win the championship with a heroic effort this season he won’t have had a single season like Vince in 2005.
RB’s: Cedric Benson 04’, Jamaal Charles 07’
We are platooning Benson and Charles here. Benson in 2004 thrived in the zone-read offense with Vince even though he preferred the I-Formation sets he started in with Chris Simms at QB. He was the ultimate “move the chains” running back who wore down defenses with 4 yards, 5 yards, 6 yards, 17 yards, 3 yards, and so on. Little Ricky minus-2.
Jamaal Charles had a slow start in 2007 that somehow resulted in 1665 rushing yards at 6.3 yards per carry. Texas has probably never had a bigger home-run threat at running back. I would prefer if Charles were a better 3rd down back to run flares, screens and draws but he didn’t excel there in 2007. Regardless, he is the ultimate change of pace runner for Benson’s bruising style.
TE: David Thomas 05’
Texas has had several good and potentially good tight ends this decade. Bo Scaife was a great weapon for Simms and Vince, JerMichael Finley was perhaps the most athletic and underutilized, Blaine Irby could have been the best before he blew out his knee. As it stands, the ultimate safety-valve receiver gets the nod here. Thomas, recently waived by the Patriots, now spends time playing halfback, fullback, tight end, and slot receiver for the Saints offensive machine. Simply the best.
Split End: Roy Williams 02’
Roy Williams was a large and powerful man who once dragged the entire Oklahoma State secondary 10 yards and on another occasion ran a reverse against LSU where his acceleration completely overwhelmed the defense. He’s your best big outside receiver of the decade. Maybe Sweed could have surpassed him if not for a broken wrist in 2007.
LT: Mike Williams 01’
A huge and imposing man who became a top 5 draft pick. He’s physically the best left tackle Texas has started, although he actually started at Right Tackle with Leonard Davis at Left tackle. However, on the right side he protected Simms’ blindside (left-handed thrower). Given Davis’ move to guard at the NFL level I think Williams fits best at the all-important pass-protecting spot. If I’m wrong Vince will make up for it.
LG: Kasey Studdard 06’
Studdard earned his way onto the Houston Texan’s starting offensive line as a 6th round draft choice. He wasn’t one of the more athletically gifted players but simply one of the most effective. As a run blocker, pass blocker, zone-blocker and on the field enforcer he can’t be matched.
C: Lyle Sendlein 06’
Studdard’s partner in crime on the interior line is now a starter for the Arizona Cardinals after being undrafted. He was a two time all-conference center and by and far the most competent one Texas has had this decade.
RG: Derrick Dockery 02’
Dockery was a freshman starter and All-American in 2002. Umm, alright Mr. Dockery take your place.
RT: Justin Blalock 06’
Another All-American and 4 year starter. Blalock was a force to behold, routinely flattening multiple defenders while paving the way for Texas runners. He’s a guard at the Pro-level but a menace anywhere in the college level. Let the record show that his man was never getting to Vince, Colt, or any other quarterback.
Sub B: Jordan Shipley 09’
The Slot receiver. If Shipley could be paired with Colt on a ticket they would win best tandem of the year and perhaps the decade. I’m not sure what to say here, he’s had 2 1,000 yard seasons including 09’ in which he has posted 1363 despite being heavily targeted by defenses along with 11 touchdowns. He’s a mortal lock to be the next Wes Welker or Stokley at the Pro-level and very likely surpass them. Those were white guys with great skill inside, Shipley is an elite talent at receiver as a football player, not just a white man.
Flanker: Quan Cosby 08’
You could play Cosby or Shipley at any of the receiving positions and they would produce. Since Roy has unmatched size and athleticism he’s going outside against the press-coverage while Cosby goes here. Quan provided downfield blocking, screen blocking, deep receptions, short receptions and anything else you might conceivably ask of a wide receiver. In terms of production and value, he and Shipley are the best to play this position this decade at Texas.
Defense
RE: Orakpo 08’
Defensive line was probably the most hotly contested place on the All-Decade team. The role of blindside rusher was never in any doubt. Orakpo’s 08 season had more sacks (11.5) than any other season by a texas defender to go along with 30 quarterback hurries, 4 Forced fumbles, and 19 tackles for loss. No one exploded around the edge like Brian Orakpo in the 2000s.
NT: Marcus Tubbs 03’
Casey Hampton and Shaun Rogers I disqualified since they only played one season in this decade, and quite simply they make it too easy. Marcus Tubbs was in close competition with Roy Miller with similar numbers but Tubbs was an all-around more productive player adding 2 forced fumbles and 2 blocked kicks to his resume. He learned from Hampton and Rogers and so he learned from the best. Derek Lokey is third-team.
T: Lamarr Houston 09’
Rodrique Wright has generall been considered the best 3-tech tackle Texas has had this decade. His 2003 season was dominant with 80 tackles, 12 for loss, 7.5 sacks, 30 hurries, and 3 forced fumbles. Okam looked to maybe surpass him but couldn’t stay healthy or light enough. Lamarr Houston, in his 2nd season playing the position alongside a redshirt freshman teammate put up 58 tackles, 20 for loss, 7 sacks, and 28 hurries. Wright was playing next to Marcus Tubbs for his season.
LE: Cory Redding 02’
Sergio Kindle was the competition here although Kindle has been used in a variety of places including Orakpo’s spot, a linebacker lining up like a Left End, and straight up as the left end. As dominant a player as Kindle has been, Cory Redding was a monster. In 02 he had 24 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 37 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 forced fumbles. 37 quarterback hurries! Redding was in the backfield all day long. Ultimately his 02 campaign was the most dominant season by a defensive lineman this decade for Texas.
WLB: Derrick Johnson 04’
DJ had 3 seasons with a least 120 tackles. His senior year he mastered the ball punching move and forced 9 fumbles. He is one of the best linebackers Texas has ever had and would likely start at Weakside linebacker for the All time Texas team. After reviewing his numbers I felt stupid for even thinking that Muckelroy might have been comparable.
MLB: Roddrick Muckelroy 09’
Muckelroy is really a weakside linebacker. The role of the WLB is typically to be a fast cleanup player who reaches the play on pursuit and can run from sideline to sideline. That’s where Muck will play in the pros. In 2009 after Jared Norton went down with injury Muck was moved to Middle Linebacker and proceeded to still have his best season as a Longhorn. He took Beanie Wells out of the 2009 fiesta bowl and probably has similar designs for Heisman winner Mark Ingram.
SLB: (Reed Boyd) Texas has not fielded an all-conference caliber Strongside linebacker this decade so we are going nickel full-time. Emmanuel Acho has little competition from the past in becoming the best Mack Brown SLB, all his competition will be in practice. Reed Boyd had some nice seasons but got moved to Middle linebacker.
Since Muschamp (of course) is our defensive coordinator we are using his “big nickel, little nickel” packages based on opponent and situation. The little nickel is better for pass defense and vice versa. Either would really just dominate anything anyone trotted out against it.
Big Nickel:
Nickel: Earl Thomas 09’
Earl is small but it pays to have him close to the line because he can force a fumble, jump a short route and is fearless in run support (a common theme here). He is one of the better playmakers Texas has fielded in the secondary over the whole decade while only a sophomore.
Corner: Nathan Vasher 03’
Vasher had seasons with 7, 4 and 6 interceptions. He was another one of those mean little guys that blew up unsuspecting skill players and simply got his hands on the football routinely.
Free Safety: Michael Griffin 06’
Michael Griffin is one the stronger tacklers in the history of the Texas secondary while also a rangy pass defender. In 2006 Griffin took on a little more than he could chew due to the schemes of Chizik but still had a massively productive season. In 05 and 06 combined he had 6 blocked kicks and 5 forced fumbles. Like Vasher and Earl he played mean, only with size and strength to really punish.
Strong Safety: Michael Huff 05’
Thorpe Award winner and all around menace, Huff took on the task of spying Reggie Bush in the 2006 Rose Bowl with not a trace of fear. He never put up big interception numbers but he was an excellent tackler and could force the ball out and make explosive breaks on the ball. If this team simply manned up the receivers and let Griffin and Huff play over the top there would never be any big plays. Teams avoided Huff like the plague and challenging him and Griffin deep was a poor idea that led to disastrous results for Matt Leinart in the Rose Bowl.
Corner: Aaron Ross 06’
Always one of the more athletic of the group of mid 00 defensive backs Ross finally got his chance in 06. He won the Thorpe award and had big game winning plays against Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Iowa. His 6 interceptions, 19 pass breakups and 3 forced fumbles are just a big picture illustration of the way he consistently foiled attempts to defeat the Freshman Colt-led Longhorns over the course of 2006.
Small Nickel:
Corner: Quentin Jammer
We add Jammer for the small nickel and move Vasher inside where he can blow up runners overlooking his sub-6 foot frame and we add the best physical press-coverage man of the decade. Many would put Cedric Griffin here and perhaps Curtis Brown, Chykie Brown or Aaron Williams will overtake them both but no one frustrated attempts to get the ball to the best receiver like Jammer. He had 44 pass breakups over 00 and 01 while simply physically overmatching receivers and “jamming” them off their routes into the sidelines. He only misses the first team for Vasher’s ability to take away the ball.
Free Safety: Earl Thomas: 09’
Strong Safety: Michael Huff 05’
Nickel corner: Nathan Vasher 03’
Corner: Aaron Ross 06’
So, we have an offense that will run the ball on everyone while taking easy shots over the middle to Thomas, Cosby or Shipley or the occasion deep shot to Roy Williams. No team is covering all those guys against Vince. To give him that kind of time and weapons at the college level would mean at least 50 points every game. The defense, meanwhile, is perfectly assembled to simply blow up anything the offense might try to do from the outset of the play while still being backed by likely the best All-decade secondary of any team in the nation.
Any thoughts on unfair omissions or anything else?
We’ll do a basketball one next and eventually get to Muschamp’s plan to beat his old boss.
I also found it most useful to steal Bill Simmons technique in “the Book of Basketball” when he chooses his wine cellar team. The premise is this, if highly skilled Martians came and challenged the earth to a basketball game for the fate of humanity and you could assemble a team by using a time machine and picking players from their best seasons who would you select. In the case of college football, many stars only have 1 or 2 seasons as upperclassmen and developed starters. I’ve chosen the best seasons by Longhorns that I’m aware of for this squad. If one player had a 3 year span of excellence but couldn’t surpass a single season of elite play from a player at the same position he was left off. The goal here is to win a single season championship (or single game against the Martians), longevity isn’t weighed.
Offense: We’re running the Vince Young zone-read offense although we might be a little more aggressive in the passing game than Texas in 04 or 05 given the depth of receivers to work with. Vince was hitting a lot of guys standing still, we’ll try and get them on the move.
QB: Vince Young 05’
Vince Young’s national championship season. Perhaps the greatest offense in college football history was built entirely around Vince’s running skills, improvisational skills, and leadership. No one else on that offensive squad, besides the O-line and David Thomas, could really be described at that point in their career as more than a role player. Vince was an absolute force in 2005 and the best defense in college football that year couldn’t stop him at home with an intensely hostile crowd. Even if Colt should win the championship with a heroic effort this season he won’t have had a single season like Vince in 2005.
RB’s: Cedric Benson 04’, Jamaal Charles 07’
We are platooning Benson and Charles here. Benson in 2004 thrived in the zone-read offense with Vince even though he preferred the I-Formation sets he started in with Chris Simms at QB. He was the ultimate “move the chains” running back who wore down defenses with 4 yards, 5 yards, 6 yards, 17 yards, 3 yards, and so on. Little Ricky minus-2.
Jamaal Charles had a slow start in 2007 that somehow resulted in 1665 rushing yards at 6.3 yards per carry. Texas has probably never had a bigger home-run threat at running back. I would prefer if Charles were a better 3rd down back to run flares, screens and draws but he didn’t excel there in 2007. Regardless, he is the ultimate change of pace runner for Benson’s bruising style.
TE: David Thomas 05’
Texas has had several good and potentially good tight ends this decade. Bo Scaife was a great weapon for Simms and Vince, JerMichael Finley was perhaps the most athletic and underutilized, Blaine Irby could have been the best before he blew out his knee. As it stands, the ultimate safety-valve receiver gets the nod here. Thomas, recently waived by the Patriots, now spends time playing halfback, fullback, tight end, and slot receiver for the Saints offensive machine. Simply the best.
Split End: Roy Williams 02’
Roy Williams was a large and powerful man who once dragged the entire Oklahoma State secondary 10 yards and on another occasion ran a reverse against LSU where his acceleration completely overwhelmed the defense. He’s your best big outside receiver of the decade. Maybe Sweed could have surpassed him if not for a broken wrist in 2007.
LT: Mike Williams 01’
A huge and imposing man who became a top 5 draft pick. He’s physically the best left tackle Texas has started, although he actually started at Right Tackle with Leonard Davis at Left tackle. However, on the right side he protected Simms’ blindside (left-handed thrower). Given Davis’ move to guard at the NFL level I think Williams fits best at the all-important pass-protecting spot. If I’m wrong Vince will make up for it.
LG: Kasey Studdard 06’
Studdard earned his way onto the Houston Texan’s starting offensive line as a 6th round draft choice. He wasn’t one of the more athletically gifted players but simply one of the most effective. As a run blocker, pass blocker, zone-blocker and on the field enforcer he can’t be matched.
C: Lyle Sendlein 06’
Studdard’s partner in crime on the interior line is now a starter for the Arizona Cardinals after being undrafted. He was a two time all-conference center and by and far the most competent one Texas has had this decade.
RG: Derrick Dockery 02’
Dockery was a freshman starter and All-American in 2002. Umm, alright Mr. Dockery take your place.
RT: Justin Blalock 06’
Another All-American and 4 year starter. Blalock was a force to behold, routinely flattening multiple defenders while paving the way for Texas runners. He’s a guard at the Pro-level but a menace anywhere in the college level. Let the record show that his man was never getting to Vince, Colt, or any other quarterback.
Sub B: Jordan Shipley 09’
The Slot receiver. If Shipley could be paired with Colt on a ticket they would win best tandem of the year and perhaps the decade. I’m not sure what to say here, he’s had 2 1,000 yard seasons including 09’ in which he has posted 1363 despite being heavily targeted by defenses along with 11 touchdowns. He’s a mortal lock to be the next Wes Welker or Stokley at the Pro-level and very likely surpass them. Those were white guys with great skill inside, Shipley is an elite talent at receiver as a football player, not just a white man.
Flanker: Quan Cosby 08’
You could play Cosby or Shipley at any of the receiving positions and they would produce. Since Roy has unmatched size and athleticism he’s going outside against the press-coverage while Cosby goes here. Quan provided downfield blocking, screen blocking, deep receptions, short receptions and anything else you might conceivably ask of a wide receiver. In terms of production and value, he and Shipley are the best to play this position this decade at Texas.
Defense
RE: Orakpo 08’
Defensive line was probably the most hotly contested place on the All-Decade team. The role of blindside rusher was never in any doubt. Orakpo’s 08 season had more sacks (11.5) than any other season by a texas defender to go along with 30 quarterback hurries, 4 Forced fumbles, and 19 tackles for loss. No one exploded around the edge like Brian Orakpo in the 2000s.
NT: Marcus Tubbs 03’
Casey Hampton and Shaun Rogers I disqualified since they only played one season in this decade, and quite simply they make it too easy. Marcus Tubbs was in close competition with Roy Miller with similar numbers but Tubbs was an all-around more productive player adding 2 forced fumbles and 2 blocked kicks to his resume. He learned from Hampton and Rogers and so he learned from the best. Derek Lokey is third-team.
T: Lamarr Houston 09’
Rodrique Wright has generall been considered the best 3-tech tackle Texas has had this decade. His 2003 season was dominant with 80 tackles, 12 for loss, 7.5 sacks, 30 hurries, and 3 forced fumbles. Okam looked to maybe surpass him but couldn’t stay healthy or light enough. Lamarr Houston, in his 2nd season playing the position alongside a redshirt freshman teammate put up 58 tackles, 20 for loss, 7 sacks, and 28 hurries. Wright was playing next to Marcus Tubbs for his season.
LE: Cory Redding 02’
Sergio Kindle was the competition here although Kindle has been used in a variety of places including Orakpo’s spot, a linebacker lining up like a Left End, and straight up as the left end. As dominant a player as Kindle has been, Cory Redding was a monster. In 02 he had 24 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 37 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 forced fumbles. 37 quarterback hurries! Redding was in the backfield all day long. Ultimately his 02 campaign was the most dominant season by a defensive lineman this decade for Texas.
WLB: Derrick Johnson 04’
DJ had 3 seasons with a least 120 tackles. His senior year he mastered the ball punching move and forced 9 fumbles. He is one of the best linebackers Texas has ever had and would likely start at Weakside linebacker for the All time Texas team. After reviewing his numbers I felt stupid for even thinking that Muckelroy might have been comparable.
MLB: Roddrick Muckelroy 09’
Muckelroy is really a weakside linebacker. The role of the WLB is typically to be a fast cleanup player who reaches the play on pursuit and can run from sideline to sideline. That’s where Muck will play in the pros. In 2009 after Jared Norton went down with injury Muck was moved to Middle Linebacker and proceeded to still have his best season as a Longhorn. He took Beanie Wells out of the 2009 fiesta bowl and probably has similar designs for Heisman winner Mark Ingram.
SLB: (Reed Boyd) Texas has not fielded an all-conference caliber Strongside linebacker this decade so we are going nickel full-time. Emmanuel Acho has little competition from the past in becoming the best Mack Brown SLB, all his competition will be in practice. Reed Boyd had some nice seasons but got moved to Middle linebacker.
Since Muschamp (of course) is our defensive coordinator we are using his “big nickel, little nickel” packages based on opponent and situation. The little nickel is better for pass defense and vice versa. Either would really just dominate anything anyone trotted out against it.
Big Nickel:
Nickel: Earl Thomas 09’
Earl is small but it pays to have him close to the line because he can force a fumble, jump a short route and is fearless in run support (a common theme here). He is one of the better playmakers Texas has fielded in the secondary over the whole decade while only a sophomore.
Corner: Nathan Vasher 03’
Vasher had seasons with 7, 4 and 6 interceptions. He was another one of those mean little guys that blew up unsuspecting skill players and simply got his hands on the football routinely.
Free Safety: Michael Griffin 06’
Michael Griffin is one the stronger tacklers in the history of the Texas secondary while also a rangy pass defender. In 2006 Griffin took on a little more than he could chew due to the schemes of Chizik but still had a massively productive season. In 05 and 06 combined he had 6 blocked kicks and 5 forced fumbles. Like Vasher and Earl he played mean, only with size and strength to really punish.
Strong Safety: Michael Huff 05’
Thorpe Award winner and all around menace, Huff took on the task of spying Reggie Bush in the 2006 Rose Bowl with not a trace of fear. He never put up big interception numbers but he was an excellent tackler and could force the ball out and make explosive breaks on the ball. If this team simply manned up the receivers and let Griffin and Huff play over the top there would never be any big plays. Teams avoided Huff like the plague and challenging him and Griffin deep was a poor idea that led to disastrous results for Matt Leinart in the Rose Bowl.
Corner: Aaron Ross 06’
Always one of the more athletic of the group of mid 00 defensive backs Ross finally got his chance in 06. He won the Thorpe award and had big game winning plays against Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Iowa. His 6 interceptions, 19 pass breakups and 3 forced fumbles are just a big picture illustration of the way he consistently foiled attempts to defeat the Freshman Colt-led Longhorns over the course of 2006.
Small Nickel:
Corner: Quentin Jammer
We add Jammer for the small nickel and move Vasher inside where he can blow up runners overlooking his sub-6 foot frame and we add the best physical press-coverage man of the decade. Many would put Cedric Griffin here and perhaps Curtis Brown, Chykie Brown or Aaron Williams will overtake them both but no one frustrated attempts to get the ball to the best receiver like Jammer. He had 44 pass breakups over 00 and 01 while simply physically overmatching receivers and “jamming” them off their routes into the sidelines. He only misses the first team for Vasher’s ability to take away the ball.
Free Safety: Earl Thomas: 09’
Strong Safety: Michael Huff 05’
Nickel corner: Nathan Vasher 03’
Corner: Aaron Ross 06’
So, we have an offense that will run the ball on everyone while taking easy shots over the middle to Thomas, Cosby or Shipley or the occasion deep shot to Roy Williams. No team is covering all those guys against Vince. To give him that kind of time and weapons at the college level would mean at least 50 points every game. The defense, meanwhile, is perfectly assembled to simply blow up anything the offense might try to do from the outset of the play while still being backed by likely the best All-decade secondary of any team in the nation.
Any thoughts on unfair omissions or anything else?
We’ll do a basketball one next and eventually get to Muschamp’s plan to beat his old boss.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Colt's last hurrah: Texas offense vs. Alabama's Defense
In the last post we discussed Texas’ great difficulties with elite defenses this year. You may recall that in this space at the beginning of the year I called 2009 “revenge of the defense”. Teams were losing skill players, quarterbacks and offensive line talent while major programs were returning major defensive players.
Anyways, Texas was absolutely wrecked in the trenches against Oklahoma in passing situations and in all phases against Nebraska. Major weaknesses have been exposed in the tendencies and the Offensive-line play. Typically, Greg Davis coached Texas is great on offense when they have a dominant trait that no one can stop with any reasonable allocation of defensive resources despite the obvious tendencies. For instance:
In 2008 Texas had the 3 step West Coast passing game with Colt McCoy throwing to Jordan Shipley and the Quan Cosby. No one could cover Quan and Shipley long enough when Colt would make a quick strike pass or dance around buying time. In 2005 (perhaps the greatest college offense ever) Texas had Vince Young running the shotgun-spread with the option and passing game. It was the perfect combination of a legendary talent with the right supporting cast, including an elite level O-line.
In 2004 Texas had Vince and Cedric Benson and the passing game was a useful constraint to the 2-man beatings inflicted on the Big 12 as well as an additional means of giving Vince space to run. When the passing game had matured by the Rose Bowl the offense was close to the 2005 juggernaut.
The other Texas offenses, no matter how talented, were ultimately susceptible usually due to weak line play or over reliance on one trait. This Texas team came into the year trying to run the same 4-wide 3 step passing game as last year and found that Quan hadn’t been replaced and that teams had worked out how to clamp down on the few routes that had devastated everyone the year before. A lot of teams on the schedule did this and it ultimately amounted to soft coverage where the defenders were free to jump the routes they knew were coming. Without other offensive weapons this Texas offense has been easy to handle for better defenses.
Now Alabama’s defensive scheme is not entirely like Nebraska’s or OUs’ style although closest to the latter. In scheme it’s perhaps most similar to what Texas has run on defense this year under Will Muschamp (who coached under Nick Saban as defensive coordinator at LSU and the Miami Dolphins). As I’ve mentioned, they lack a dominant 3-tech style tackle like Suh or McCoy to blow up the middle of the Longhorn line. Instead they use Terrance Cody to clog the middle and free up their big, athletic ends and linebackers (like All-American McClain) to blow up the middle or the edge. They use the same kind of 4-3 under defense that Muschamp uses and rotate between the 4-3 and 3-4 most frequently using the 3-4.
McClain is a 260 pound monster Middle Linebacker and the ends and other linebackers are pretty fast, downhill players. Corner Javier Arenas is a fantastic cover-guy and the safeties are OU, cover-2 downhill types that can make a big hit but aren’t covering anyone in the slot like Earl Thomas. Both are 215+ and used to handling SEC offenses with lots of power running and the play-action pass.
Alabama was built to destroy these SEC powers and namely Florida. Urban Meyer’s gator squad this year was strongest in the running game getting the fast backs on the edge or getting TE Hernandez the ball in the option game or any other way that occurs to Meyer. Tebow and the power running game could not consistently produce offense against Alabama’s perpetually unblocked linebackers and safeties, although in this game Florida had good yardage without points.
No one has really had any success against Alabama this season, but then none of Alabama’s opponents have had a ton of success against anyone of note. The more schematically advanced Auburn and Florida saw some limited success and Tennessee threw the ball fairly effective and had 10 points to show for it (as well as 2 blocked field goals). The 2005 Texas Offense and this defense would win the game by 30 points. As it is, this will be quite the struggle, I present the following considerations:
1). The immovable object vs. the wheel
Chris Hall will be lined up directly against Terrance Cody on most every offensive play. Chris Hall is most, or I might say only, useful in space. He can no sooner drive block Cody off the ball than he can levitate. The first might be the even less likely given Hall’s great faith. Unless God gives his faithful servant some such supernatural gift or Chris reworks his 295 pound frame into different proportions the Longhorns will have tremendous trouble in the running game getting blockers to McClain and the rest of the back 7. I think Davis should consider abandoning the inside and outside zone runs unless he is running no-huddle.
Which brings us to the positive side of this matchup, while the Blob will not be driven away from the play, he isn’t getting to Colt and he is not going to blow up plays in the backfield save by occupying a guard and freeing up a linebacker. In the passing game, which Texas will very likely rely on entirely, he is almost useless. Additionally, his body is not built for stamina and he can be driven off the field by a no-huddle offense and then perhaps the running game can be opened up.
2). Speed vs. Power
Texas will be the fastest offense that Alabama plays this season. Florida has some speed but ultimately only a few ways to use it since the ball is usually in Tebow’s hands and the receivers aren’t deep. Malcolm Williams, Jordan Shipley, Marquise Goodwin, Colt (as a quarterback) all have the potential to cause new problems for the Alabama squad. Conversely, Alabama’s power in the trenches could blow up anything before it starts, and the safeties are great if things stay in front of them. It is essential for Texas to use misdirection in this game and take advantage of the speed at Wide Receiver or Bama will swallow up everything and force turnovers making hard plays on the ball.
The misdirection running play debuted against OU, the traditional counters, and the counter-draw must be the staples of the Texas running game. Cody Johnson will be useful only in short-yardage. The various wide receiver screens should be abandoned and replaced with fake screens that turn into pump-fake deep throws. The comeback hitch-routes Texas runs should be supplemented with double moves deep to Shipley. Greg Davis likes to come out, do what he always does and then attack the schemes he expected to see from the defense playing his normal stuff. For once, Texas should assume that Bama will jump the traditional plays like everyone else has and play misdirection early. A fast start and early lead would be totally foreign to Alabama.
If Texas can establish a running game it’s all over. Since they almost certainly will not establish one with any consistency the best bet for scoring is through a few big plays by breaking tendency. The one great advantage to being a team that always does the same thing and relies on talent is that the exceptions will shock and awe. Malcolm Williams is a home-run threat on every play. Alabama cannot handle someone that big and fast, no one can. Both safeties are slow and aggressive, thus very vulnerable if drawn into taking a false step. Their better corner, Arenas, will almost certainly be worried about Shipley. The linebackers, like the safeties, are great playing downhill but aren’t catching people from behind. One or two big plays could very well make the difference. Another possible big play is the Colt scramble which could very well keep a crucial drive alive or punch in points in a big way.
3). Texas O-line vs. legacy
Last year this line stepped up big when it mattered in Dallas and keyed a big Texas victory and 38 offensive points against OU (Shipley kickoff return). This year it hasn’t stepped up on the big stage and is largely to blame for Colt’s failure to win the Heisman in a wide-open year. With Malcolm Williams AND Jordan Shipley in the receiving corp plus Colt and a host of competent running backs the major block to offensive dominance has been a soft running game and weak pass-protection.
OU, in addition to having Gerald McCoy dominate the Texas guards, would zone-blitz and then blanket Shipley. If Alabama doesn’t do the same thing it would reverse what game-tape recommends as well as what Alabama has done all year. Primarily, Saban prefers the same man-free coverage Muschamp has used much of the year. He uses a robber in the middle of the field which he curiously calls “the rat” who rats out the other teams coverages, passes on responsibilities and jumps routes in the middle. Or Saban will use the additional player afforded by man coverage and 1 deep safety to blitz 5 men. All the linebackers are useful blitzers so there can be no certainty which might blitz on a given play, particularly with the zone-blitz.
If ever there was a challenge this line could step up and take on this is it. Confusing blitzes from aggressive players? Nothing these guys haven’t seen before. All of them are multi-year starters. Hall is good in pass protection so long as he isn’t facing a good pass-rushing tackle…he isn’t. Ulatoski is most vulnerable to good pass-rushers who can double move to the inside. I may be wrong but nuanced pass-rush moves aren’t the name of the game for any of Alabama’s guys. They will overload blitz and punish you for your predicted reaction. The Texas line is capable of meeting that challenge and their failure to do so will result in the loss of the Heisman and the national championship.
4). Greg Davis vs. Nick Saban
"Your move white..."
Obvious mismatch. Davis has to go for broke in this game. Run misdirection early in the game. Prepare the line for the blitz and utilize the superior athletes at Wide Receiver with hot routes and deep shots that can punish a defense that won’t look so elite on their heels trying to chase Marquise Goodwin. The traditional slip screens you see in video games and occasionally in Texas games would be a welcome staple. Newton isn’t terribly fast but he is a steady weapon. A steady diet of Fig Newtons will make anyone sick in a hurry. Speaking of hurrying, a fast tempo mixed with clever plays did a number on this defense last year when Utah embarrassed the Crimson Tide and with Texas athletes it could make for a big game. Most of Auburn’s points came this way. Alabama’s size and aggressiveness is begging for a no-huddle attack.
5). Colt McCoy vs. himself
Colt McCoy is a far better quarterback than Greg McElroy. Saban wants this game to be Ingram vs. Colt. Muschamp will try his damndest to make it McElroy vs. McCoy. If you gave me odds on who is more likely to have more turnovers between McElroy and Colt I would stare into space for a while and then just start praying. The only time Nebraska would dare to allow Zac Lee to throw the ball was on deep routes off of play action where an interception was like a punt. I very much suspect that Alabama will have a similar strategy on when they choose to allow McElroy to make something happen. Colt, on the other hand, will be looking to make things happen all day long. But turnovers cannot happen like they did with Nebraska and Oklahoma, Texas can’t afford to give away points. Colt will likely have to win the game scrambling and making things happen and at the same time must shoulder this without putting the defense in holes that can allow Alabama to accumulate field goals and the odd touchdowns. If he succeeds, we can finally start the discussion about how he stacks up to his predecessor.
Anyways, Texas was absolutely wrecked in the trenches against Oklahoma in passing situations and in all phases against Nebraska. Major weaknesses have been exposed in the tendencies and the Offensive-line play. Typically, Greg Davis coached Texas is great on offense when they have a dominant trait that no one can stop with any reasonable allocation of defensive resources despite the obvious tendencies. For instance:
In 2008 Texas had the 3 step West Coast passing game with Colt McCoy throwing to Jordan Shipley and the Quan Cosby. No one could cover Quan and Shipley long enough when Colt would make a quick strike pass or dance around buying time. In 2005 (perhaps the greatest college offense ever) Texas had Vince Young running the shotgun-spread with the option and passing game. It was the perfect combination of a legendary talent with the right supporting cast, including an elite level O-line.
In 2004 Texas had Vince and Cedric Benson and the passing game was a useful constraint to the 2-man beatings inflicted on the Big 12 as well as an additional means of giving Vince space to run. When the passing game had matured by the Rose Bowl the offense was close to the 2005 juggernaut.
The other Texas offenses, no matter how talented, were ultimately susceptible usually due to weak line play or over reliance on one trait. This Texas team came into the year trying to run the same 4-wide 3 step passing game as last year and found that Quan hadn’t been replaced and that teams had worked out how to clamp down on the few routes that had devastated everyone the year before. A lot of teams on the schedule did this and it ultimately amounted to soft coverage where the defenders were free to jump the routes they knew were coming. Without other offensive weapons this Texas offense has been easy to handle for better defenses.
Now Alabama’s defensive scheme is not entirely like Nebraska’s or OUs’ style although closest to the latter. In scheme it’s perhaps most similar to what Texas has run on defense this year under Will Muschamp (who coached under Nick Saban as defensive coordinator at LSU and the Miami Dolphins). As I’ve mentioned, they lack a dominant 3-tech style tackle like Suh or McCoy to blow up the middle of the Longhorn line. Instead they use Terrance Cody to clog the middle and free up their big, athletic ends and linebackers (like All-American McClain) to blow up the middle or the edge. They use the same kind of 4-3 under defense that Muschamp uses and rotate between the 4-3 and 3-4 most frequently using the 3-4.
McClain is a 260 pound monster Middle Linebacker and the ends and other linebackers are pretty fast, downhill players. Corner Javier Arenas is a fantastic cover-guy and the safeties are OU, cover-2 downhill types that can make a big hit but aren’t covering anyone in the slot like Earl Thomas. Both are 215+ and used to handling SEC offenses with lots of power running and the play-action pass.
Alabama was built to destroy these SEC powers and namely Florida. Urban Meyer’s gator squad this year was strongest in the running game getting the fast backs on the edge or getting TE Hernandez the ball in the option game or any other way that occurs to Meyer. Tebow and the power running game could not consistently produce offense against Alabama’s perpetually unblocked linebackers and safeties, although in this game Florida had good yardage without points.
No one has really had any success against Alabama this season, but then none of Alabama’s opponents have had a ton of success against anyone of note. The more schematically advanced Auburn and Florida saw some limited success and Tennessee threw the ball fairly effective and had 10 points to show for it (as well as 2 blocked field goals). The 2005 Texas Offense and this defense would win the game by 30 points. As it is, this will be quite the struggle, I present the following considerations:
1). The immovable object vs. the wheel
Chris Hall will be lined up directly against Terrance Cody on most every offensive play. Chris Hall is most, or I might say only, useful in space. He can no sooner drive block Cody off the ball than he can levitate. The first might be the even less likely given Hall’s great faith. Unless God gives his faithful servant some such supernatural gift or Chris reworks his 295 pound frame into different proportions the Longhorns will have tremendous trouble in the running game getting blockers to McClain and the rest of the back 7. I think Davis should consider abandoning the inside and outside zone runs unless he is running no-huddle.
Which brings us to the positive side of this matchup, while the Blob will not be driven away from the play, he isn’t getting to Colt and he is not going to blow up plays in the backfield save by occupying a guard and freeing up a linebacker. In the passing game, which Texas will very likely rely on entirely, he is almost useless. Additionally, his body is not built for stamina and he can be driven off the field by a no-huddle offense and then perhaps the running game can be opened up.
2). Speed vs. Power
Texas will be the fastest offense that Alabama plays this season. Florida has some speed but ultimately only a few ways to use it since the ball is usually in Tebow’s hands and the receivers aren’t deep. Malcolm Williams, Jordan Shipley, Marquise Goodwin, Colt (as a quarterback) all have the potential to cause new problems for the Alabama squad. Conversely, Alabama’s power in the trenches could blow up anything before it starts, and the safeties are great if things stay in front of them. It is essential for Texas to use misdirection in this game and take advantage of the speed at Wide Receiver or Bama will swallow up everything and force turnovers making hard plays on the ball.
The misdirection running play debuted against OU, the traditional counters, and the counter-draw must be the staples of the Texas running game. Cody Johnson will be useful only in short-yardage. The various wide receiver screens should be abandoned and replaced with fake screens that turn into pump-fake deep throws. The comeback hitch-routes Texas runs should be supplemented with double moves deep to Shipley. Greg Davis likes to come out, do what he always does and then attack the schemes he expected to see from the defense playing his normal stuff. For once, Texas should assume that Bama will jump the traditional plays like everyone else has and play misdirection early. A fast start and early lead would be totally foreign to Alabama.
If Texas can establish a running game it’s all over. Since they almost certainly will not establish one with any consistency the best bet for scoring is through a few big plays by breaking tendency. The one great advantage to being a team that always does the same thing and relies on talent is that the exceptions will shock and awe. Malcolm Williams is a home-run threat on every play. Alabama cannot handle someone that big and fast, no one can. Both safeties are slow and aggressive, thus very vulnerable if drawn into taking a false step. Their better corner, Arenas, will almost certainly be worried about Shipley. The linebackers, like the safeties, are great playing downhill but aren’t catching people from behind. One or two big plays could very well make the difference. Another possible big play is the Colt scramble which could very well keep a crucial drive alive or punch in points in a big way.
3). Texas O-line vs. legacy
Last year this line stepped up big when it mattered in Dallas and keyed a big Texas victory and 38 offensive points against OU (Shipley kickoff return). This year it hasn’t stepped up on the big stage and is largely to blame for Colt’s failure to win the Heisman in a wide-open year. With Malcolm Williams AND Jordan Shipley in the receiving corp plus Colt and a host of competent running backs the major block to offensive dominance has been a soft running game and weak pass-protection.
OU, in addition to having Gerald McCoy dominate the Texas guards, would zone-blitz and then blanket Shipley. If Alabama doesn’t do the same thing it would reverse what game-tape recommends as well as what Alabama has done all year. Primarily, Saban prefers the same man-free coverage Muschamp has used much of the year. He uses a robber in the middle of the field which he curiously calls “the rat” who rats out the other teams coverages, passes on responsibilities and jumps routes in the middle. Or Saban will use the additional player afforded by man coverage and 1 deep safety to blitz 5 men. All the linebackers are useful blitzers so there can be no certainty which might blitz on a given play, particularly with the zone-blitz.
If ever there was a challenge this line could step up and take on this is it. Confusing blitzes from aggressive players? Nothing these guys haven’t seen before. All of them are multi-year starters. Hall is good in pass protection so long as he isn’t facing a good pass-rushing tackle…he isn’t. Ulatoski is most vulnerable to good pass-rushers who can double move to the inside. I may be wrong but nuanced pass-rush moves aren’t the name of the game for any of Alabama’s guys. They will overload blitz and punish you for your predicted reaction. The Texas line is capable of meeting that challenge and their failure to do so will result in the loss of the Heisman and the national championship.
4). Greg Davis vs. Nick Saban
"Your move white..."
Obvious mismatch. Davis has to go for broke in this game. Run misdirection early in the game. Prepare the line for the blitz and utilize the superior athletes at Wide Receiver with hot routes and deep shots that can punish a defense that won’t look so elite on their heels trying to chase Marquise Goodwin. The traditional slip screens you see in video games and occasionally in Texas games would be a welcome staple. Newton isn’t terribly fast but he is a steady weapon. A steady diet of Fig Newtons will make anyone sick in a hurry. Speaking of hurrying, a fast tempo mixed with clever plays did a number on this defense last year when Utah embarrassed the Crimson Tide and with Texas athletes it could make for a big game. Most of Auburn’s points came this way. Alabama’s size and aggressiveness is begging for a no-huddle attack.
5). Colt McCoy vs. himself
Colt McCoy is a far better quarterback than Greg McElroy. Saban wants this game to be Ingram vs. Colt. Muschamp will try his damndest to make it McElroy vs. McCoy. If you gave me odds on who is more likely to have more turnovers between McElroy and Colt I would stare into space for a while and then just start praying. The only time Nebraska would dare to allow Zac Lee to throw the ball was on deep routes off of play action where an interception was like a punt. I very much suspect that Alabama will have a similar strategy on when they choose to allow McElroy to make something happen. Colt, on the other hand, will be looking to make things happen all day long. But turnovers cannot happen like they did with Nebraska and Oklahoma, Texas can’t afford to give away points. Colt will likely have to win the game scrambling and making things happen and at the same time must shoulder this without putting the defense in holes that can allow Alabama to accumulate field goals and the odd touchdowns. If he succeeds, we can finally start the discussion about how he stacks up to his predecessor.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Texas against the dominant defensive tackle: how will Texas deal with Alabama?
Albert Haynesworth has at times been a dominant defensive tackle in the NFL, and so has Vince Wilfork. Ndamukong Suh was a dominant defensive tackle in the Big 12 this season while Terrance Cody dominated the SEC anchoring the middle of the Alabama defense.
This is Haynesworth:
This is Wilfork:
This is Suh:
This is Cody:
Anything stand out? While all of them are enormous men, they have different bodies and subsequently different physical skills. Wilfork is a big space eater who lines up across the center and defends the gaps to either side of the center. Haynesworth is an explosive athlete who attacks the gap between the Right Tackle and Right guard.
We’ll get back to that, first let’s examine some conventional wisdom regarding the Alabama vs. Texas matchup. In 2 games vs. high level defenses Texas won 12-10 and 16-13. In both games, the interior line for the Texas offense was humiliated and Colt McCoy took multiple sacks in each game.
I’d like to highlight the performances of the defensive tackles for Oklahoma and Nebraska in those games.
Gerald McCoy: 3 tackles including 2 for loss. 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries. You might also remember that his opponent, David Snow, was called for several false starts in a panic trying to deal with him.
For the season McCoy had 31 tackles, including 14.5 for loss and 5 sacks. He created 9 quarterback hurries.
Ndamukong Suh: 12 tackles including 7 for a loss of 22 yards. He had 4.5 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries. On the season he put up 77 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, one interception, 10 other passes broken up and 22 quarterback hurries.
A few things should stand out here. One is that both Suh and McCoy performed better against Texas than they did against most of the teams on their schedules. McCoy doubled his season’s quarterback hurry output against Texas alone. I have a few explanations for this
1). Chris Hall: He lines up in the center of the Texas offensive line. He completely lacks the necessary strength to stop the momentum of guys like this. He has talents and by all accounts is one of the finest young men at the university. But he is a soft interior lineman.
2). Huey’s ankle: Michael Huey is a much stronger interior lineman but he has had a bum ankle all season. It’s hard to use leverage against 280 pound men with a tender ankle.
3). David Snow’s bizarre regression. Sophomore Snow was expected to emerge as an elite interior lineman that could push the guards and Hall for their starting spots. That hasn’t happened and he looked completely lost against Gerald McCoy.
McCoy, overall, put up half of his quarterback hurries against Texas. The quarterback hurry is an underrated stat that indicates when a lineman is creating pressure on the quarterback that will lead to turnovers and incomplete passes. Gerald McCoy’s 5 quarterback hurries indicate that he was making a dwelling place in the Texas backfield in Dallas.
Suh dominated Texas to the point where nothing could be accomplished offensively because any and every play design was blown up before it could start. The frequent negative plays against Nebraska and OU stalled the Texas drives.
People want to look at these two games as a measure for how Texas will fare offensively against Alabama. It seems reasonable to conclude that since Texas won by 2 and 3 points against the two good defenses they faced (both of which were poor on offense), that an Alabama Team with an even better defense and very solid offense will consequently manhandle the Horns and walk away as champions.
I wanted to apply similar wisdom to the Texas matchup vs. Ohio State last season. Texas had amazing numbers against the run on defense while Ohio State was poor statistically against the pass. Those two bits of knowledge combined seemed to suggest a strong Texas victory. As it turned out, Texas’ front 7 was inexperienced against power running schemes and struggled with the Buckeye running game and containing Terrelle Pryor. Meanwhile, Ohio State gave up 300 passing yards but it required Colt throwing the ball over 45 times to do so and resulted in less than 25 points. That game was a forerunner in dealing with the Texas passing game that was matched in the following two games.
The gameplans used by Nebraska and OU against Texas were markedly different from each other. Nebraska just asked the defensive line to control the game and free up the back 7 defenders to sit on the Texas short passing routes they had mastered from watching game film. Some nice use of pattern reading allowed Nebraska to blow up the simple Texas offense by challenging all of Colt’s comfort reads and the domination by Suh and the D-line killed drives with negative plays.
Oklahoma could have done that as well, besides the somewhat meaningless downgrade from Suh to McCoy they have the best D-line in the conference. However, that would waste all the creative zone-blitzes Brent Venables had been writing on napkins in Oklahoma diners. Instead OU zone-blitzed Texas and rushed Colt into making hasty short throws where, again, the back 7 defenders were more than prepared for simple Texas passing routes.
So, Alabama can just get to McCoy really fast and sit on the short routes while the offense grinds out a methodical 20 points or so en route to an easy 24-9 victory right?
Well, it’s possible but they are missing one big ingredient to achieving that success. Remember those numbers put up by Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Su over the season? These were the numbers of Alabama’s star defensive tackle Terrance Cody:
25 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 pass broken up, 2 blocked kicks.
The only time Cody showed any real explosiveness up the middle was in blocking the field goals that gifted Alabama the victory over Tennessee.
The difference between Cody and Suh or McCoy is similar to the difference between Haynesworth and Wilfork. While McCoy and Suh are frequently facing double teams, like Cody, they aren’t just trying to occupy blockers and keep the line from moving defenders off the ball. They are attacking an interior gap and getting into the backfield. Terrance Cody isn’t getting into the opposing teams’ backfield. He’s occupying a center and a guard so that Rolando McClain or one of Alabama’s other big linebackers can get to the ball unimpeded. At 350+ pounds, Terrance Cody simply isn’t physically built to chase down Colt and disrupt the Texas passing game.
I’ll be back later with detailed analysis of the matchup between the Texas offense and Alabama defense but for now let’s just consider how the easy analysis can overlook the real details in matching up opponents on the gridiron. Nebraska and Oklahoma used different methods but ultimately relied on their dominant DT play to blow up the Texas offense. Alabama doesn’t play that way and while having a tremendously rare and valuable talent in Cody, they don’t have the personnel to get after Texas in the manner that Nebraska and OU did. Take a quick sigh of relief.
This is Haynesworth:
This is Wilfork:
This is Suh:
This is Cody:
Anything stand out? While all of them are enormous men, they have different bodies and subsequently different physical skills. Wilfork is a big space eater who lines up across the center and defends the gaps to either side of the center. Haynesworth is an explosive athlete who attacks the gap between the Right Tackle and Right guard.
We’ll get back to that, first let’s examine some conventional wisdom regarding the Alabama vs. Texas matchup. In 2 games vs. high level defenses Texas won 12-10 and 16-13. In both games, the interior line for the Texas offense was humiliated and Colt McCoy took multiple sacks in each game.
I’d like to highlight the performances of the defensive tackles for Oklahoma and Nebraska in those games.
Gerald McCoy: 3 tackles including 2 for loss. 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries. You might also remember that his opponent, David Snow, was called for several false starts in a panic trying to deal with him.
For the season McCoy had 31 tackles, including 14.5 for loss and 5 sacks. He created 9 quarterback hurries.
Ndamukong Suh: 12 tackles including 7 for a loss of 22 yards. He had 4.5 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries. On the season he put up 77 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, one interception, 10 other passes broken up and 22 quarterback hurries.
A few things should stand out here. One is that both Suh and McCoy performed better against Texas than they did against most of the teams on their schedules. McCoy doubled his season’s quarterback hurry output against Texas alone. I have a few explanations for this
1). Chris Hall: He lines up in the center of the Texas offensive line. He completely lacks the necessary strength to stop the momentum of guys like this. He has talents and by all accounts is one of the finest young men at the university. But he is a soft interior lineman.
2). Huey’s ankle: Michael Huey is a much stronger interior lineman but he has had a bum ankle all season. It’s hard to use leverage against 280 pound men with a tender ankle.
3). David Snow’s bizarre regression. Sophomore Snow was expected to emerge as an elite interior lineman that could push the guards and Hall for their starting spots. That hasn’t happened and he looked completely lost against Gerald McCoy.
McCoy, overall, put up half of his quarterback hurries against Texas. The quarterback hurry is an underrated stat that indicates when a lineman is creating pressure on the quarterback that will lead to turnovers and incomplete passes. Gerald McCoy’s 5 quarterback hurries indicate that he was making a dwelling place in the Texas backfield in Dallas.
Suh dominated Texas to the point where nothing could be accomplished offensively because any and every play design was blown up before it could start. The frequent negative plays against Nebraska and OU stalled the Texas drives.
People want to look at these two games as a measure for how Texas will fare offensively against Alabama. It seems reasonable to conclude that since Texas won by 2 and 3 points against the two good defenses they faced (both of which were poor on offense), that an Alabama Team with an even better defense and very solid offense will consequently manhandle the Horns and walk away as champions.
I wanted to apply similar wisdom to the Texas matchup vs. Ohio State last season. Texas had amazing numbers against the run on defense while Ohio State was poor statistically against the pass. Those two bits of knowledge combined seemed to suggest a strong Texas victory. As it turned out, Texas’ front 7 was inexperienced against power running schemes and struggled with the Buckeye running game and containing Terrelle Pryor. Meanwhile, Ohio State gave up 300 passing yards but it required Colt throwing the ball over 45 times to do so and resulted in less than 25 points. That game was a forerunner in dealing with the Texas passing game that was matched in the following two games.
The gameplans used by Nebraska and OU against Texas were markedly different from each other. Nebraska just asked the defensive line to control the game and free up the back 7 defenders to sit on the Texas short passing routes they had mastered from watching game film. Some nice use of pattern reading allowed Nebraska to blow up the simple Texas offense by challenging all of Colt’s comfort reads and the domination by Suh and the D-line killed drives with negative plays.
Oklahoma could have done that as well, besides the somewhat meaningless downgrade from Suh to McCoy they have the best D-line in the conference. However, that would waste all the creative zone-blitzes Brent Venables had been writing on napkins in Oklahoma diners. Instead OU zone-blitzed Texas and rushed Colt into making hasty short throws where, again, the back 7 defenders were more than prepared for simple Texas passing routes.
So, Alabama can just get to McCoy really fast and sit on the short routes while the offense grinds out a methodical 20 points or so en route to an easy 24-9 victory right?
Well, it’s possible but they are missing one big ingredient to achieving that success. Remember those numbers put up by Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Su over the season? These were the numbers of Alabama’s star defensive tackle Terrance Cody:
25 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 pass broken up, 2 blocked kicks.
The only time Cody showed any real explosiveness up the middle was in blocking the field goals that gifted Alabama the victory over Tennessee.
The difference between Cody and Suh or McCoy is similar to the difference between Haynesworth and Wilfork. While McCoy and Suh are frequently facing double teams, like Cody, they aren’t just trying to occupy blockers and keep the line from moving defenders off the ball. They are attacking an interior gap and getting into the backfield. Terrance Cody isn’t getting into the opposing teams’ backfield. He’s occupying a center and a guard so that Rolando McClain or one of Alabama’s other big linebackers can get to the ball unimpeded. At 350+ pounds, Terrance Cody simply isn’t physically built to chase down Colt and disrupt the Texas passing game.
I’ll be back later with detailed analysis of the matchup between the Texas offense and Alabama defense but for now let’s just consider how the easy analysis can overlook the real details in matching up opponents on the gridiron. Nebraska and Oklahoma used different methods but ultimately relied on their dominant DT play to blow up the Texas offense. Alabama doesn’t play that way and while having a tremendously rare and valuable talent in Cody, they don’t have the personnel to get after Texas in the manner that Nebraska and OU did. Take a quick sigh of relief.
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